(V-SIL) $2.48. RATING: BUY (unchanged. Ker, P.Geo, MBA. Philip. across 4 veins. now view Las. of operating at. of the outlined
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1 CORPORATE UPDATE Feb bruary 27, 2018 SILVERCREST METALS INC. (V-SIL) $2.48 RATING: BUY TARGET: $3.75 (unchanged (increased; previously $3.25) The Secret is Out at Las Chispas EVENT: SilverCrest Metals announced a very attractive maiden resource estimate for its 100% owned Las Chispas project in Sonora, Mexico. The estimate outlined 62.8Moz AgEq at exceptional consolidated grades across 4 veins and historic waste dumps of 766g/t AgEq. Philip Ker, P.Geo, MBA pker@pifinancial.com Company Statistics Risk: SPECULATIVE 52-week High/ Low: $2.79 / $1.05 Sharess Outstanding: 60M (basic) 74M (fd) Markett Capitalization (C$): 114M 3-Month Avg. Daily Volume: 104K Working Capital (C$ est): $13M Enterprise Value (C$): $101M CEO: Eric Fier With confirmation of a sizable resource with further growth potential, we now view Las Chispas as a standalone project capable of operating at 1,000tpd and producing ~9Moz AgEq annually. DISCUSSION: The outlined initial resource exceeded our expectations of 50Moz AgEq at its first pass. Drilling along the Babicanora vein has been critical to providing tonnage and ounces, particularly with the discovery of Area 51. Babicanora carries an attractive true width of 3.2m which had been reported in historic mining operations within the district. The high-grade core of the Area 51 zone attributed >50% of the outlined resource at a grade of 1, 027g/t AgEq. Under a projected operating scenario, Area 51 provides the opportunity to blend ore feed over the project s mine life resulting in a sustainable elevated head grade and production profile. This zone, combined with the abundance of high- demonstrationn of lateral and vertical continuity, provide opportunities for Babicanora to be amenable to long-hole stoping with minimal grade intervals intersected along the vein along with increasing dilution. IMPACT: Very positive with further exploration potential to grow the resource across the property and along existing or new veins. FORECAST/OUTLOOK: Under our new operating forecast for the development of Las Chispas as a standalone operation, we believe the project will evolve into one of Mexico s highest grade, narrow vein gold- to silver operations. Under our assumptions and using 15% dilution resource grades, we model initial head grades of 847g/t AgEq leading to average annual production of 8.1Moz AgEq over a 7 year mine life. Given the attractive size of the project and nominal pre-production capex of ~$50-60M, Las Chispas should quickly emerge as a leading development story within the sector. In 2018, we expect SilverCrest to be drilling aggressively with a focus of expanding mineralized zones of known veins as well as testing additional veins in the district. Data will be collected and put into an updated resource estimate and PEA expected for completion in H2/18. VALUATION: After updates to our model for Las Chispas, we have raised our target for SilverCrest Metals from $3.25/sh to $3.75/sh and maintain our BUY rating. Our target is generated using a 1.0x NAV multiple, 8% discount and $1,350/oz Au and $18.50/oz Ag prices. SilverCrest remains rated as SPECULATIVE. Thousands PI Financial Corp. has received compensation for actingg as a fiscal agent for SIL in the previous 12 months. See the disclosure section for additional details. Corporate Information SilverCrest is a Canadian precious metals exploration company headquartered in Vancouver, BC, that is focused on new discoveries, value-added acquisitions and targeting production in Mexico s historic precious metal districts. The Company is led by a proven management team in all aspects of the precious metal miningg sector, including the pioneering of a responsible phased approach business model taking projects through discovery, finance, on time and on budget construction, and production with subsequent increased value to shareholders. A Disclosure fact sheet is available on Pages 7-8 of this report.
2 Company Snapshot SILVERCREST METALS INC. (TSXV-SIL) 2 CORPORATE UPDATE Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA
3 Las Chispas We have been bullish on the opportunity unfolding at Las Chispas and with the confirmation of an attractive, high-grade project that can rapidly advance into development, should put Las Chispas and SilverCrest Metals on the radar of all investors looking for new opportunities - particularly given the significant lack of attractive and sizable silver projects in Mexico. Based on drilling success over the past few exploration seasons, we have been confident in the project s evolution and its ability to achieve >50Moz AgEq in its maiden resource estimate. Especially with the consecutive sets of positive results coming from along the Babicanora vein and its Area 51 zone. Exhibit 1 outlines the Las Chispas resource categories and in-situ ounces. Exhibit 1: Maiden Resource Table Tonnage Au Grade Ag Grade Au Contained Ag Contained AgEq (t) (g/t) (g/t) (oz) (oz) (oz) Inferred 3,415, ,000 32,650,000 62,800,000 Vein Babicanora 1,894, ,000 21,952,000 46,641,000 w/area , ,000 14,581,000 32,247,000 Las Chispas 171, ,000 1,874,000 2,861,000 Giovanni 607, ,000 4,633,000 6,641,000 William Tell 595, ,000 3,543,000 5,438,000 Historic Dumps 148, , ,000 1,219,000 Source: Company Documents Given the success of the project to date and its rapid evolution, we now foresee Las Chispas maturing into a standalone operation located just 30km from Santa Elena which SilverCrest s management had already discovered, developed and operated prior to its sale to First Majestic. We had previously valued SilverCrest and projected Las Chispas providing high-grade ore feed to Santa Elena as that operation is projected to begin being depleted of high-grade ore feed to fill its 3,000tpd mill. However, given the size and potential growth yet to come at Las Chispas, we are confident the project can become a very profitable and free cash flowing mining operation with revenues hinged on ~60/40 silver and gold. Additionally, to emphasize its potential, we compare the consolidated Las Chispas resource and Babicanora grades (both diluted 15%) to other various narrow vein, gold-silver mines in Mexico and demonstrate that Las Chispas can be a tier one operation. With Area 51 providing a kicker to a potential operating scenario, Las Chispas has the ability to sustain elevated head grades throughout its potential mine life. Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA CORPORATE UPDATE 3
4 Exhibit 2: Comparable Narrow Vein Head Grades (Mexico) Exploration growth potential: As we noted, the Area 51 zone was a key discovery to making the project achieve a critical mass. However, the high-grade zone remains open along strike and to depth and SilverCrest plans to continue testing for its limits over Additionally, this resource is only comprised of 4 of the 19 known veins across the property. Drilling in 2018 will test proximal and parallel veins to Babicanora including Babi Sur, Amethyst and La Victoria. Any significant expansion or discovery of key mineralization along a new vein willl only further expand on the maiden resource and provide opportunities for future potential to expand the Las Chispas projected mine life. Exhibit 3: Babicanoraa District Plan Map w/ /Parallel Veins 4 CORPORATE UPDATE Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA
5 Exhibit 4: Babicanora Long Section Metallurgy & Processing: To date, only preliminary y metallurgical work has been completed. However, initial results suggest similar characteristics to the nearby Santa Elena operation. This means, a suitable plant at Las Chispas would consist of a standard CCD-Merrill Crowe processing facility. Recall, Santa Elena s 3,000tpd milll was built by SilverCrest s management for ~$80M and at a a smaller scale, capital costs should be much more favourable in the $50-60M range for the Las Chispas project. Initial lab results on Las Chispas ore have outlined recoveries of 98..9% and 86.6% % for gold and silver, respectively. In our forecast, we use a conservative recovery rate for gold and silver at Las Chispas of 94% and 88% under an initial 1,000tpd operating scenario resulting in ~9Moz AgEq of initial annual production. Exhibit 5: Potential Production and Cost Profile Outlook: For SilverCrest, 2018 will be another aggressive year that will include an abundance of o drilling acrosss the property which will focus on delineation and testing for the expansion of known mineralizationn to grow its resource base in addition to testing other veins across the property. We believe management will evaluate and pursue a potential exploration decline at Babicanora which Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA CORPORATE UPDATE 5
6 will help target the at depth extension of the high-grade Area 51 zone. No confirmation has been announced to date but we believe the access portal could be a component of pre-production capital and utilized once in commercial operation. Drilling and geologic data collected over the H1/18 will be incorporated into an updated resource estimate and PEA both expected in H2/18. With further metallurgical work also anticipated, we expected Las Chispas to return very favourable economics. Given management s extensive experience within Sonora and the rapid rate that Las Chispas has progressed thus far, we believe a construction decision can be made in late 2019 with a target of achieving commercial production in In the near term, SilverCrest has >$10M in its treasury and should be well funded for its exploration efforts in However, we note that the company may seek additional capital or evaluate toll milling a portion of its ore which is currently sitting in the historic waste dumps. Recommendation/Valuation: We reiterate that our previous outlook for SilverCrest used an incremental ore feed scenario with ore feeding Santa Elena to derive our valuation and target price. Considering the attractive properties of Las Chispas and its potential to further grow its in-situ resource base across existing and new veins on the property, we have revamped our assumptions and valuation methodology for SilverCrest Metals and we apply a 100% conversion rate of the resources outlined to recoverable tonnes. Under an 8% discount rate, using our long term gold and silver price forecasts of $1,350/oz and $18.50/oz, respectively, we achieve a valuation for Las Chispas of C$308M or $3.57/sh. This includes our assumed capital cost of $60M and equity dilution to fund the operations capital requirements (12M $2.50/sh) under a 50/50 debt to equity ratio. With the positive resource now outlined to firmly evaluate the potential at Las Chispas we reiterate our BUY rating and have now increased our target price from $3.25/sh to $3.75/sh. Exhibit 6: Updated NAVPS Breakdown Interest Discount Rate (%) NAV (C$) NAVPS (C$) Las Chispas 100% 8% $308.1 $3.57 Exploration Asset Value Working Capital $3.4 $0.04 ITM Proceeds $14.9 $0.17 G&A ($4.0) ($0.05) Recent Financing $10.0 $ Exploration Expense ($10.0) ($0.12) NAV (C$) $ $ CORPORATE UPDATE Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA
7 Disclosure Fact Sheet Ratings BUY : recommendation: stock is expected to appreciate from its current price level at least 10-20% in the next 12 months. NEUTRAL : recommendation: stock is expected to trade in a narrow range from its current price level in the next 12 months. SELL : recommendation: stock is expected to decline from its current price level at least 10-20% in the next 12 months. U/R : Under Review N/R : No Rating TENDER: Investors are guided to tender to the terms of the takeover offer. Analyst recommendations and targets are based on the stock s expected return over a 12-month period or may be based on the company achieving specific fundamental results. Under certain circumstances, and at the discretion of the analyst, a recommendation may be applied for a shorter time period. The basis for the variability in the expected percentage change for a recommendation, relates to the differences in the risk ratings applied to individual stocks. For instance stocks that are rated Speculative must be expected to appreciate at the high end of the range of 10-20% over a 12- month period. Analyst Certification Price Volatility / Risk SPECULATIVE : The Company has no established operating revenue, and/or balance sheet or cash flow concerns exist. Typically low public float or lack of liquidity exists. Rated for risk tolerant investors only. ABOVE AVERAGE : Revenue and earnings predictability may not be established. Balance sheet or cash flow concerns may exist. Stock may exhibit low liquidity. AVERAGE : Average revenue and earnings predictability has been established; no significant cash flow/balance sheet concerns are foreseeable over the next 12 months. Reasonable liquidity exists. Price Volatility/Risk analysis while broad based includes the risks associated with a company s balance sheet, variability of revenue or earnings, industry or sector risks, and liquidity risk. I, Philip Ker, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. I am the research analyst primarily responsible for preparing this report. Research Disclosures Applicability 1) PI Financial Corp. and its affiliates holdings in the subject company s securities, in aggregate exceeds 1% of each company s issued and outstanding securities. 1) No 2) The analyst(s) responsible for the report or recommendation on the subject company, a member of the research analyst s household, and associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly involved in the preparation of this report, have a financial interest in, or exercises investment discretion or control over, securities issued by the following companies. 2) No 3) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services for the subject company over the preceding 12-month period. 3) Yes 4) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. 4) Yes 5) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. 5) No 6) The following director(s), officer(s) or employee(s) of PI Financial Corp. is a director of the subject company in which PI provides research coverage. 6) No 7) A member of the research analyst s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject company. 7) No 8) PI Financial Corp. and/or its affiliates make a market in the securities of the subject company. 8) No 9) Company has partially funded previous analyst visits to its projects. 9) Yes 10) Additional disclosure: 10) No General Disclosure The affiliates of PI Financial Corp. are PI Financial (US) Corp., PI Financial Services Corp., and PI Capital Corp. Analysts are compensated through a combined base salary and bonus payout system. The bonus payout is amongst other factors determined by revenue generated directly or indirectly from various departments including Investment Banking. Evaluation is largely on an activity-based system that includes some of the following criteria: reports generated, timeliness, performance of recommendations, knowledge of industry, quality of research and investment guidance, and client feedback. Analysts are not directly compensated for specific Investment Banking transactions. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of PI Financial Corp. PI Financial Corp. s policies and procedures regarding dissemination of research, stock rating and target price changes can be reviewed on our corporate website at (Research: Research and Conflict Disclosure). Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA CORPORATE UPDATE 7
8 The attached summarizes PI s analysts review of the material operations of the attached company(s). Analyst Company Type of Review Operations / Project Date Philip Ker SilverCrest Metals Inc. Management Update Las Chispas 2/18 Disclosure to US Residents PI Financial (US) Corp. is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of PI Financial Corp. PI Financial (US) Corp. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms and limitations as set out above. U.S. residents seeking to effect a transaction in any security discussed herein should contact PI Financial (US) Corp. directly. Recommendations Number of Recommendations Percentage BUY % NEUTRAL % SELL % TENDER % U/R % N/R % TOTAL 69 Stock Rating and Target Changes For reports that cover more than six subject companies, the reader is referred to our corporate web site for information regarding stock ratings and target changes. (Research: Research and Conflict Disclosure). $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 Silvercrest Metals Inc. (Initiated Coverage: Oct 24/16) Date Rating Change Target Change Share Price Feb 27/18 Buy $3.25 to $3.75 $2.48 Dec 7/16 Buy $3.40 to $3.25 $2.33 Oct 24/16 Buy $3.40 $2.20 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ CORPORATE UPDATE Philip Ker, P.Geo., MBA
9 Capital Markets Group Managing Director, SVP Capital Markets Jeremiah Katz Managing Director, Head of Research Bob Gibson, B.Comm, CFA Managing Director, Head of Institutional Sales & Trading Jim Danis, B.Sc. (Hons.) Managing Director, Head of Investment Banking Dan Barnholden, MBA Research Analysts Consumer Products Bob Gibson, B.Comm, CFA Mining Chris Thompson, P. Geo Head of Mining Research Philip Ker, P.Geo, MBA Brian Szeto, MA, CFA Gary Sidhu, B.Sc., MBA Special Situations Jason Zandberg, B.BA, CFA Industrials Devin Schilling, CFA Technology David Kwan, CFA Research Associates Danielle Fotoohi, MBA, AFM, BASc Neehal Upadhyaya, BAFM, MAcc Justin Stevens, EIT Institutional Sales Vancouver Jim Danis, B.Sc. (Hons.) Jeremiah Katz David Goguen, CFA Doug Melton, FCSI Brodie Dunlop Toronto Jose Estevez, CFA John McBride Institutional Trading Vancouver Darren Ricci or (US) or (CDN) Adam Dell, CFA or Toronto Stephen Pynn Investment Banking Mining Dan Barnholden, MBA Russell Mills, CFA, MFin Tim Graham, B.Comm Jim Locke, CFA Technology Blake Corbet, BA Joel Kitsul, CFA Diversified Industries Grant Hughes, CFA, MFin Equity Capital Markets/Syndication Tim Johnston Trina Wang Investment Banking Analyst Cameron Dowle Marketing and Publishing Michelle Kwok PI Financial Corp. Head Office Suite 1900, 666 Burrard Street Vancouver, BC V6C 3N1 ph: fx: Toronto Office Suite 3401, 40 King Street West Toronto, ON M5H 3Y2 ph: fx: Calgary Office Suite 1560, th Avenue SW Calgary, AB T2P 3C4 ph: fx: For a complete list of branch office locations and contact information, please go to Participants of all Canadian Marketplaces. Members: Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, Canadian Investor Protection Fund and AdvantageBC International Business Centre - Vancouver. Estimates and projections contained herein are our own and are based on assumptions which we believe to be reasonable. Information presented herein, while obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, is not guaranteed either as to accuracy or completeness, nor in providing it does PI Financial Corp. assume any responsibility or liability. This information is given as of the date appearing on this report, and PI Financial Corp. assumes no obligation to update the information or advise on further developments relating to securities. PI Financial Corp. and its affiliates, as well as their respective partners, directors, shareholders, and employees may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales from time to time. PI Financial Corp. may act, or may have acted in the past, as a financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain of the companies mentioned herein and may receive, or may have received, a remuneration for their services from those companies. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities and is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where PI Financial Corp. is registered as an advisor or a dealer in securities. Any distribution or dissemination of this report in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited. For further disclosure information, reader is referred to the disclosure section of our website.
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