2. Supply trend and final demand

Transcription

1 (1) Outline of supply trend for final demand 1 supply trend 2. Supply trend and final demand The overall supply for final demand increased by 1.0% compared to the previous year, up for the fifth consecutive year. The outline was as follows: Overall industrial supply for consumption increased by 0.7% (id.), up for the ninth consecutive year, due to increases in both personal consumption and government consumption. Overall industrial supply for investment decreased by 1.2% (id.), down for the first time in four years, due to decreases in private housing and public investment, although private corporation facilities increased. Exports increased by 7.1% (id.), up for the sixth consecutive year, and imports also increased by 1.9% (id.), up for the ninth consecutive year. IT-related consumption increased by 1.1% (id.), up for the third consecutive year, and IT-related investment also increased by 1.7% (id.), up for the fifth consecutive year including a leveling-off period. Changes in the Indices of All Industries (Final demand components) (2000=, Ratios to the previous year (quarter)) Ratio to the previous year Ratio to the previous year Ratio to the previous year Total of final demand sector Mining and manufacturing (Goods) Tertiary industries (Services) Consumption Personal consumption Mining and manufacturing (Goods) Tertiary industries (Services) (Special) IT-related Government consumption Investment Public investment Private housing Private corporation facilities Mining and manufacturing (Goods) Construction Tertiary industries (Services) (Special) IT-related Exports Mining and manufacturing (Goods) Tertiary industries (Services) Imports Mining and manufacturing (Goods) Tertiary industries (Services) Notes: 1. For details of revision of the base year to YR2000, and the definition of IT-related consumption and IT-related investment of the indices of all industrial supply, see Outline of the revision of the 2000 base Indices of All Industrial Supply on p.241 of the main text. 2. As the indices of all industrial supply are calculated using various statistical data, preliminary figures are used for some basic data. Therefore, you should note that the indices of the previous quarter have been corrected to the revised figures. 3. The ratios to the previous year are original indices, and others are based on seasonally adjusted indices. Source: The Indices of All Industries (Final demand components) (Estimated values)

2 2 Trend of IT-related consumption and investment Characteristics IT-related consumption for increased by 1.1% compared to the previous year, up for the third consecutive year. Non-IT-related consumption also increased by 0.7% (id.), up for the fifth consecutive year. IT-related investment for private corporation facilities increased by 1.7% (id.), up for the fifth consecutive year, including a leveling-off period. Non-IT-related investment also increased by 2.2%, up for the fifth consecutive quarter. Changes in IT-related Consumption Changes in IT-related Investment Index level (2000=; Seasonally adjusted) Index level (2000=; Seasonally adjusted) 115 Personal consumption IT-related consumption Non-IT-related consumption Private corporation facilities IT-related investment Non-IT-related investment Notes: 1. T-related consumption is consumption related to cellular telephones, personal handy-phone systems (PHS), personal computers, fixed telecommunications and mobile telecommunications that are supplied for personal consumption. 2. IT-related investments are investments related to communication wires and cables, power wires and optical fiber products for cables, digital and full color copying machines, key system telephone equipment, facsimile machines, electronic switching systems, digital transmission equipment, fixed communication equipment, personal handy-phone systems (PHS), basic exchange for mobile customer premises equipment, general purpose computers, mid-range computers, personal computers, external storage, input-output units, terminal equipment, software development and program creation (subcontracts) that are supplied to private corporation facilities. Source: The Indices of All Industries (Final demand components) (Estimated values)

3 Factors affecting personal consumption including weather Analysis Point 1 Precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) causes a significant decrease in consumption of clothing and footwear. Characteristics Precipitation of 1mm or more decreases consumption by nearly 300 yen per capita per day. Among the major ten items, clothing and footwear were affected most significantly by precipitation. Precipitation on holidays also has negative effects on transportation and communication. Table II-1-8 Results of Regression Analysis with Per-Capita Consumption Expenditure by Item as Dependent Variable Explanatory variables Number of days with precipitation of 1 mm or more Number of holidays with precipitation of 1 mm or more Number of weekdays with precipitation of 1 mm or more Dependent variable Coefficient (yen/day) t-value Coefficient (yen/day) t-value Coefficient (yen/day) t-value Consumption expenditure Food Housing Fuel, light and water charges Furniture and household utensils Clothing and footwear Medical care Transportation and communication Education Reading and recreation Other consumption expenditures Notes: 1. For regression formula, etc., see Notes for Table II-1-7 and 8 in the main text. 2. Per-capita consumption expenditure here refers to consumption expenditure of two-or-more-person households in ku-areas of Tokyo, Yokohama City, Nagoya City and Osaka City between January 2000 and December (excluding transfer expenditure (such as remittance to a family member); on a three-person household basis). 3. Shaded areas show absolute t-values exceeding 2. Source: Climatic Statistics (Japan Meteorological Agency), Family Income and Expenditure Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) and Consumer Price Index (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Analysis Point 2 Weather affects consumption differently according to seasons. Characteristics Longer sunshine hours increase consumption expenditure between April and June but have the opposite impact between October and December. Weather affects consumption in a different manner according to the seasons. Between January and March, increases in the number of days with an average temperature of 5 or over and the number of days with precipitation of 1mm or more decrease consumption. Between April and June, higher maximum temperatures boost consumption, while an increase in the number of days with precipitation of 1mm or more decreases consumption. Between July and September, an increase in the number of days with a minimum temperature of lower than 25 decreases consumption. Between October and December, longer sunshine hours decrease consumption

4 Analysis Point 3 Past disposable income also affects consumption. Characteristics Personal consumption declined notably in the third quarter of. The Family Income and Expenditure Survey suggests that this decline may be partly attributable to a decrease in disposable income during the preceding period between December and June. Per-capita consumption expenditure (excluding transfer expenditure; monthly average between 2000 and ) was approximately 150,000 yen for one-person households and 86,000 yen for two-or-moreperson households. Therefore, determination of population rate by household size is very important in estimating personal consumption for the whole nation. Fig. II-1-14 Changes in (Nominal) Per-Capita Disposable Income of Two-or-More-Person Households Fig. II-1-16 Changes in (Nominal) Personal Consumption (=) Per-capita disposable income of worker's households Consumer price index (excluding imputed rent) (2000=) Notes: 1. Per-capita disposable income, consumer price index and total consumption expenditures are all seasonally adjusted using the X-12-ARIMA method. 2. The total consumption expenditure (based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (total households)) is obtained by multiplying per-capita consumption expenditure of total households by population. The total consumption expenditure (based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (one-person households + two-or-more-person households)) is obtained by multiplying per-capita consumption expenditure of one-person households and two-or-more-person households by population. Per-capita consumption expenditure does not include transfer expenditure. 3. Final consumption expenditure of households is a seasonally adjusted series of the final consumption of households (excluding imputed rent of owneroccupied dwellings) of the National Accounts. Source: National Accounts (Cabinet Office), Population Census (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), Population Estimates (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), Family Income and Expenditure Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) and Consumer Price Index (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) 2000 Total consumption expenditure (based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (total households)) Total consumption expenditure (based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (one-person households + two-or-more-person households)) Final consumption expenditure of households

5 Capital investment trend in the machinery manufacturing industry Analysis Point 1 ~ The period average growth rate of the most recent amount of capital investment turned negative for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. ~ Characteristics Period Average Growth Rate of the Amount of Capital Investment 12th cycle 14th cycle Note: The period average growth rate is the geometric average based on seasonally adjusted indices. Source: Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance) Fig. II-2-13 Changes in Capital Investment by Industry (2000=; Seasonally adjusted; All sizes of business) All industries 0.92% 1.47% 0.33% 2.11% Non-manufacturing 1.20% 1.17% Notes 1. The amount of capital investment is originally adjusted by the X-11 Default of X-12-ARIMA method. 2. Shaded parts show economic contraction stages (the same in the following figures) Source: Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance) % 1.28% 5.43% 2001 Number of industries with negative period average growth rate in the 14th cycle 2002 Out of 17 industries Increased from 2 to 7 Out of 10 industries Increased from 3 to 6 Non-manufacturing All industries - Analysis Point 2 ~ The general machinery industry makes small-scale but robust capital investment, while the electrical machinery industry and information and communication electronics equipment industry continue large-scale capital investment. ~ Characteristics Electrical machinery/information and communication electronics equipment 12th cycle: 2.51% 12th cycle: 1.63% (First place among the manufacturing industries) Period average growth rate 14th cycle: 4.96% 14th cycle: 2.27% (First place among the manufacturing industries) Marking a capital investment index of 275 (a record high) The capital investment index being on a generally Trend in the second quarter of. upward trend. Machinery orders lag behind capital investment Timing correlation Machinery orders lead capital investment by two quarters. by one quarter. (2001 to ) Maintaining a high level since Number of factory locations Remaining at a low level since 2001 (First half of : total 139) countrywide (First half of : total 56) Small-scale factories below the average Site area per factory location Large-scale factories exceeding the average for the overall manufacturing industry (0.96ha) Average (): 1.23ha for the overall manufacturing industry (1.81ha) Estimate for 2008: 21% (Downward trend) TANKAN/Business condition DI Estimate for 2008: 8% (Downward trend) Source: Orders Received for Machinery (Cabinet Office), Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance), Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (TANKAN) (Bank of Japan), Table of Total Supply of Mining and and Trend Survey Result on Factory Locations in First Half

6 Analysis Point 3 ~ The general machinery industry has been improving its capital investment efficiency, while the electrical machinery industry and information and communication electronics equipment industry have seen high capital investment to cash flow ratios. ~ (%) Characteristics Electrical machinery/information and communication electronics equipment At a level below that of the overall manufacturing Have made active capital investment but are on a Capital investment cash flow ratio industry declining trend recently 62.8% Ratio (arithmetic average) for the 14th cycle 87.1%.3% for FY 107.0% for FY (Both value-added elements and tangible fixed assets elements contributed to the increase.) Capital investment efficiency (Tangible fixed assets elements contributed to the decrease.) Fig. II-2-18 Changes in Capital Investment to Cash Flow Ratio (4-Period Backward Moving Average, All Sizes of Business) Electrical machinery/information and communication electronics equipment Fig. II-2-21 Changes in Capital Investment Efficiency (All Sizes of Business) (%) 140 Electrical machinery/information and communication electronics equipment FY1992 FY1994 FY1996 FY1998 FY2000 FY2002 FY FY Notes: 1. Capital investment to cash flow ratio = Capital investment / Cash flow 2. Capital investment efficiency = Value added / Tangible fixed assets (excluding Construction account) (average of the beginning and end of the period) Value added = Net business profit (Business profit Interest costs, etc.) + Directors allowance + Workers wages + Welfare expenses + Interest costs, etc. + Asset rental fees + Tax and public imposition Source: Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Ministry of Finance) Conclusion The amount of Capital investment for the 14th cycle (overall industries) had been on an upward trend, but the period average growth rate after turned negative for both the manufacturing industry and non-manufacturing industry. The period average growth rate for all industries was minus 3.77%. Furthermore, the number of industries with negative period average growth rates has been increasing for both the manufacturing industry and non-manufacturing industry after. However, the machinery manufacturing industry and the iron and steel industry have maintained positive period average growth rates even after. In contrast, the transport industry and information and communications industry have seen negative growth. Situations vary by type of industry. Under such circumstances, the general machinery industry, electrical machinery industry and information and communication electronics equipment industry have been leading the entirety of capital investment, making steady capital investment, although in different manners. There is concern that the upsurge of oil prices and the appreciation of the yen might reduce corporate profits, but we hope steady capital investment will continue to be carried out

7 (2) Outline of export and import trends export and import trends Characteristics Looking at the trends of exports for (on a quantity basis), exports as a whole increased by 7.1% from the previous year, due to increases in exports of goods (the mining and manufacturing industry) by 7.3% (id.) and received services (the tertiary industry) by 6.6% (id). By region, exports of goods increased in all of Europe, East Asia, the Middle East, ASEAN and the U.S. Changes in Exports by Region (Goods) Index level (2000=, Seasonally adjusted) Total Europe East Asia China U.S. ASEAN Middle East Characteristics Looking at the trends of imports for (on a quantity basis), imports as a whole increased by 1.9% from the previous year, due to increases in imports of goods (the mining and manufacturing industry) by 6.3% (id.) and service payments (the tertiary industry) by 0.7% (id.). By region, imports increased in East Asia and Europe. Changes in Imports by Region (Goods) Index level (2000=, Seasonally adjusted) Total Europe East Asia China U.S. ASEAN Middle East Notes: 1. The export index is estimated by rearranging the trade statistics with the shipment index group, and the import index is estimated by rearranging the trade statistics with the total supply index group. 2. The regional classification was amended according to the revision of the base year The names of each country are as follows: ASEAN: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Brunei and Cambodia; East Asia: Republic of Korea, Taiwan, China (including Hong Kong); Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Gaza and Yemen. Sources: Breakdown List of Mining and Shipments and Table of Total Supply of Mining and (Estimated values)