Update of KKB story. Investor Call Presentation 15 October 2007
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1 Update of KKB story Investor Call Presentation 15 October 2007
2 Disclaimer Representatives of JSC Kazkommertsbank (the "Bank") will be conducting a call (the "investor call") with equity and bond investors on 15 October During the course of the call, the Bank will discuss preliminary unaudited unconsolidated results of operations as of and for the nine month period ended 30 September 2007 (the "preliminary unaudited unconsolidated results of operations"), which results of operations are contained herein. Although the Bank's management believes that the preliminary unaudited unconsolidated results of operations provide a meaningful representation of the Bank's performance, investors are hereby notified that there could be differences between preliminary unaudited unconsolidated results of operations contained herein and discussed during the call and the unaudited consolidated results of operations as of and for the nine month period ended 30 September 2007 reviewed by the Bank's auditors, which will be available at a later date. There may also be differences between the preliminary unaudited unconsolidated results of operations and the audited consolidated results of operations as at and for the year ended 31 December The Bank's management is not able to estimate the impact of the differences, if any. This document contains forward-looking statements. Although the Bank and its subsidiaries believe that their expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such statements may be influenced by factors that could cause actual outcomes and results to be materially different from those contained herein and discussed during the call. 1
3 Management team on the call Nina Zhussupova CEO Askarbek Nabiyev CFO Andrey Timchenko MD, Retail Banking/ Financial Institutions Magzhan Auezov MD, Corporate Banking Adil Batyrbekov MD, Risk Management Maral Amrina Head, Investor Relations / Capital Markets 2
4 Agenda Preliminary 3Q2007 results Funding and liquidity Construction and real estate Appendixes 3
5 Strong results USDm Q07 3Q07 Total assets 18,205 23,279 23,166 Shareholders equity 1,957 2,264 2,407 Net customer loans 11,989 17,714 18,277 Deposits 5,087 7,523 6,551 Net income Q07 3Q07 Key ratios Cost/income 16.4% 14.6% 13.9% RoAE % 18.6% 19.5% Tier I 3 6.0% 8.1% 8.2% CAR % 11.4% 11.7% NPLs / Gross Loans 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% Provisions / NPLs 456.7% 439.9% 587.7% Provisions / Gross Loans 4.4% 4.3% 4.9% Source: unconsolidated unaudited accounts of the Company 1 30 September 2007 figures. 2 Averages are based upon average daily balances 3 Calculated according to Basel I requirements 4
6 5 Network roll-out continues * 2008* Branch network growth * - Forecast Opened in October 2007 (3) Location of outlets is idenified (22) Opened as at (166) Current status Comments Bank significantly expanded its branch network in 3Q2007 from 111 as at 31 December 2006 to 166 branches as at 01 October 2007.
7 Agenda Preliminary 3Q2007 results Funding and liquidity Construction and real estate Appendixes 6
8 Changes in deposit market Corporate deposits market shares Retail deposits market shares 22,5% 26,9% 23,9% 23,0% 21,8% 18,0% 22,8% 22,6% 21,9% 21,0% 21,0% 16,2% 15,0% 18,2% 5,3% 4,9% 7,5% 4,4% 13,1% 8,8% 18,2% 18,0% 13,9% 15,4% 19,7% 19,9% 18,6% 15,4% 7,0% 6,5% 6,5% 3,6% 4,9% 5,4% 10,3% 9,9% 10,0% 21,4% 21,7% 21,2% KKB Halyk BTA BCC Alliance ATF Others 18,7% 19,0% 10,8% 11,2% 6,7% 15,7% 17,5% 20,3% 22,4% 24,4% 19,2% 19,3% 18,9% 18,5% 11,0% 10,4% 10,2% 9,4% 9,6% 8,4% 7,3% 7,0% 8,7% 8,3% 8,6% 8,9% 11,1% 10,8% 10,9% 10,9% KKB Halyk BTA BCC Alliance ATF Others Dec.'06 June '07 July '07 Aug. '07 Sept. '07 Dec. '06 June '07 July '07 Aug. '07 Sept '07 Source: Company information 7
9 Liquidity ratios Liquidity Ratios as of 3Q 2007 Highly Liquid Assets / Demand Liabilities Liquid Assets / Short Term Liabilities ( < 3 months) Ratio: 114% 88% Minimum requirements: 30% 50% Based on non-consolidated financial statements 8
10 Maturity and currency profiles Maturity Profile, 3Q 2007(USDm) < 1 month 1-3 months 3-6 months 6-12 months 1-5 years >5 years Perpetual Currency Profile, 3Q 2007 (USDm) Assets Liabilities KZT USD EUR RUR Other Assets 9 Liabilities
11 Strong internal cash generation Repayment plans, US$ millions Oct. '07 Nov.-Dec. '07 Jan.-Mar. '08 Apr.-Sept. '08 Repayments of customer loans to be received Customer deposits, syndicated loans and debt securities to be repaid Total amount to be received from loan repayments fully covers KKB s customer deposits, bonds and syndicated loans repayments. 10
12 Agenda Preliminary 3Q2007 results Funding and liquidity Construction and real estate Appendixes 11
13 Structure of the loan portfolio Total loan portfolio by sectors, 3Q07 Construction and real estate breakdown, 3Q07 2% 28% 3% 4% 6% 7% 7% 22% 21% Construction Trade Real estate Transport&telecom Hotels and catering Financial services Food Agriculture Other 17% 10% 5% 2% Residential 42% 24% Land and properties Office Retail Industrial Hotels 12
14 Market fundamentals - residential real estate market in Almaty 18,4 Sq. meter per resident in Almaty 17,8 18,7 Comments Since the year end 1999 up until 30 June 2007: (1) 3.28 million sq. meters of residential property was built 16,4 16,4 16,5 16,6 17,1 (2) Housing stock reduced by 2.56 million sq. meters as a result of zoning and transformation of residential property into commercial (3) Population of Almaty grew to 1.29 million from 1.13 million New housing stock built since 2000 until 1H2007 per capita has only partially replenished the stock outflow into commercial H * 2008* 2009* * Projections Housing stock growth, sq. meters 829,7 As of 1H2007 total residential stock was around 21.5 million sq. meters compared to 20.8 million sq. meters as of the year end Square meter per Almaty resident as of 1H2007 has fallen to 16.6 from as of the year end ,9 541,7 New housing stock put into operation since the year end 1999 represented 15% of total housing stock of Almaty and only satisfied about 4.5% of households of Almaty. 240,9 266,1 291,5 311,4 Most of these purchases were to improve living conditions. For comparison, average square meter per resident ratio in Western Europe is between 35 and H
15 Fundamentals driving the demand Housing stock is represented by obsolete and low quality premises As of 1999 vast majority of population wanted to improve living conditions 3.28 mln sq.m. of new housing has satisfied needs of only 4.5% households in Almaty, therefore major unsatisfied demand Square meters per resident ratio in Almaty is twice lower than in Western Europe Sq.m. per resident ratio has fallen as a result of zoning, outflow of residential property into commercial and growth of population Most of population still need to improve living conditions Strong macro fundamentals supporting effective demand Oil prices grew to $80 per barrel as of 3Q2007 from $24.42 as of year end 1999 Grain prices grew to $360 from $130 for the same period Because fundamentals are strong in the medium term, we expect strong real estate prices in months perspective despite potential temporary turbulence 14
16 High quality retail loan book Retail portfolio by products Quality of retail loans by products 1,9% 5,0% 1,0% 0,2% 5,3% Mortgages 1,4% Consumer loans secured by real estate Express loans 0,3% 0,55% 31,6% 56,9% Car loans 0,02% 0,02% Credit cards Consumer durables Consumer loans secured by real estate Mortgages Express loans NPLs, % Net write-offs, % 15
17 Results of stress testing (Monte Carlo simulation) Following are results based on 95% VaR: With 5 fold increase in the default rate and 50% decrease in average real estate price, mortgage portfolio is profitable (annual portfolio profit compensates annual credit losses) Mortgage portfolio reaches break even point if real estate prices decrease by 60%, with simultaneous increase in the default rate by a factor of 5 We consider 60% fall in real estate prices and 5-fold increase in the default rate as an extreme scenario. We believe the correction in real estate market will be less dramatic, given the positive underlying fundamentals of the market Even if this scenario is reached for several months or a even year, it will not undermine long-term profitability of the product (calculated over lifetime of the portfolio). 16
18 Corporate portfolio - steps taken to address real estate exposure concerns Steps taken Date Limit Real estate sector limit introduced June 2007 Requirements Financial leverage requirements tightened LTV requirements up Tenors reduced Interest rates increased Eligibility criteria tightened taking into account market conditions, construction segment, type of real estate June 2007 Safety factor 42% is a safety factor for transactions approved during last 12 months calculated as difference between full cost of the project and sale price per square meter August 2006 August
19 Target setting Most important issue: Liquidity shortage for completion of ongoing construction projects Measures to address the issue: Prioritization of ongoing projects, putting early-stage projects on hold Banks are continuing mortgage programs & selected project funding Additional liquidity injected by government: Delay and softening of minimal reserve requirements for banks Kazakhstan Mortgage Company to increase portfolio purchases from banks Direct purchases of apartments by state from construction companies Up to US$ 4bln announced to be allocated for support of construction companies 18
20 Questions? Nina Zhussupova CEO Askarbek Nabiyev CFO Andrey Timchenko MD, Retail Banking/ Financial Institutions Magzhan Auezov MD, Corporate Banking Adil Batyrbekov MD, Risk Management Maral Amrina Head, Investor Relations / Capital Markets 19
21 Agenda Preliminary 3Q2007 results Funding and liquidity Construction and real estate Appendixes 20
22 Construction company case study Kuat Rapid reduction of outstanding debt: Date Outstanding debt, $ mln Construction volume on the final stage of completion (to be commissioned within next 2 months): approx. 30% of total construction-in-progress The largest number of buyers under pre-sale agreements: as of Implied financing commitment by state to finalize construction of all buildings partially or fully presold Potential government offtake of office space 21
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