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1 Daily Dossier 19th July 2018 Outlook The Nifty ended 0.21% down at 10, It continued oscillating in a narrow price band for the entire session towards ending the day with a bearish candle. Downside critical support around 10,900 is still intact, which may act as the immediate support. On the flip side, failing to breakout 11,080 may restrict the upside for the time being. Below 10,900, next support is placed around 10,860. Nifty Intraday Chart On the Nifty hourly chart; double bottom formation in RSI is seen while the benchmark index is trying hard to find support around 10,900 levels. Breaching 10,900 may initiate a swift down move towards 10,860. Nifty patterns on multiple time frames show; 10,900 continue to act as the pivotal support. However, the bearish candle pattern on daily chart may restrict the upside for the time being. Nifty Crucial Supports & Resistances for tomorrow- Supports , Resistances , Jaydeb Dey Jaydeb.dey@smifs.com Deepankar Saha deepankar.saha@smifs.co.in Top Stock Drivers For The Day Open positional calls- Positional T+2 Buy- ASHOK LEYLAND 120-CE on 2.50, TGT- 5.50, SL Positional T+2 Buy- NIFTY 11'200-CE on 11, TGT- 21, SL Positional T+3 Sell- Future Segment price- AMARA RAJA Fut on 765, TGT- 735, SL- 780 Name News/Views Impact The following news came after market hours and is likely to react tomorrow: Hatsun Agro Products Ltd. (CMP:631.50) Hatsun Agro Q1 Revenue came in at INR12.4 Billion vs INR11. 7Billion reported in the same quarter last year. PAT came in at INR cr as against INR35. 2 crore last year same quarter. 1

2 Intraday Chart of Sensex FII Derivatives Flow (In Crore) Instrument Purchase Sale Net Index Future Index Option Stock Future Stock Option Institutional Flow (In Crore) Institution Purchase Sale Net Market Turnover (Rs. Crore) Name Last Previous NSE Cash *NA NSE F&O BSE Cash 2, , BSE F&O NIFTY Top Gainers Name %1D %5D Day Vol Avg 5 Day Vol Titan ,924,410 3,318,635 Bharti Airtel ,531,466 3,960,343 Yes Bank ,050,256 13,094,050 Vedanta ,107,204 10,389,750 ITC ,956,760 11,171,510 NIFTY Top Losers Name %1D %5D Day Vol Avg 5 Day Vol Lupin ,616,898 2,949,052 L&T ,468,552 2,037,056 Cipla ,424,272 2,088,188 Kotak Bank ,013,280 1,473,255 Hindalco ,211,007 7,473,951 FII DII Market in Retrospect Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second day ahead of a no-confidence vote tomorrow on Narendra Modi government. Sensex ended 0.1% lower at 36, and the Nifty ended at 10,957.10, down 0.2%. Nifty Pharma was the top loser, losing by around 1.53%, followed by Nifty IT which was down by 0.97% & Nifty Finance which was down by 0.63%. Nifty FMCG was up by around 0.76%. Titan, Airtel & Yes Bank were the top gainers, gaining by around 2.79%, 2.43% & 2.25% respectively. Hindalco, Kotak Mahindra Bank & Cipla were the top losers, losing by around 6.97%, 3.66% & 2.76% respectively. The Advance : Decline ratio stood at 522 : Bulk and Block Deals Energy Markets Name Index Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y NYMEX Crude BRENT Crude Natural Gas *Data not update till 6PM 2

3 Indian Indices Name Index Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y Sensex Nifty BSE M Cap BSE S Cap Nifty MC BSE Auto BSE Capgoods BSE FMCG BSE Metal BSE Oil&Gas BSE Healthcare BSE Power BSE Realty BSE ConsDur BSE Bank BSE IT Freight Name Index Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y Baltic Dry Baltic Dirty Currency Name Rate Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y INR USD Index YUAN GBP EUR YEN Agro Commodities Name Price Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y Coffee Cotton Sugar Wheat Soybean Global Indices (Updated at 4:30 pm) Name Index Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P FTSE CAC DAX Mexico IPC Brazil Bovespa Russian RTS Japan Nikkei Hang Seng Taiwan Index Shanghai Comp KOSPI Malaysia KLCI Jakarta Comp Philippine SE Thai Exch LME Name Index Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y Gold($/Ounce) Silver($/Ounce) Aluminium Copper Zinc Lead Bond Markets Name Yield Net Chng %1D %5D %1M %3M %1Y US UK Brazil Japan Australia India Switzerland Germany

4 News Impact Con Call Highlights Mahindra CIE Currently 60% of the Consol. Rev. comes from Europe and the rest comes from India. MGMT targets 60% from India and 40% International. Timeline not given but more clarity on this later this year. This indicates robust growth prospect in India. Mexican capacity expansion is 50% complete and currently producing 2 mn. units p.a. The project got delayed due to technical problems. Despite the Trade-war related uncertainties Order flow is strong and Co. expects to achieve 15% EBITDA margin by the end of this year. CapEx for CY18 stood at INR400 crore. MGMT usually spends 5-6% of Consol. Rev. as CapEx. But MGMT refuses to provide any guidance for CapEx for CY19 as too many variables are at play. Ultratech Cement Lead distance has reduced to 427km vs 453 km from a year ago. Landed Pet coke prices in Q1 was $114/tn. Currently it is trading at $119/tn. Cement Prices/(Capacity Utlisation) Central: 4-5%/up /(70%); West 4-5% up/(75%); East-flat /(95%); North: 1%/(80%) ; South: flat /(60%). The management is hopeful that the SC will not ban the import of petcoke as there is huge shortage of domestic petcoke. Sterlite Technologies The company reported Q1 FY19 results with nearly 2x increase in Net Profits on YoY basis. There has been an EBITDA margin expansion due to better capacity utilization and contribution from new products. Acquisition of Metallurgica Bresciana gives Europe market access and adds 3Mnkfm cabling capacity which can be further expanded to 5Mnfkm with minimal capex. First module of fibre capacity addition of 10Mnfkm to be completed by end of December this year, and another 10Mnfkm to be added by June next year taking the total capacity to 50Mnfkm. Order book is at an all-time high of INR6,034 Cr (up 92% yoy) with deep long-term engagements with global Tier-1 customers. Strategic guidance of $100 Million PAT in FY20 to be expedited with growing order book and future visibility. 4

5 News Impact Quarterly Results Kotak Mahindra Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd net profit for the June quarter rose 12.3% from a year ago helped by higher net interest income and other income. Standalone net profit for the first quarter stood at INR 1, crore against INR crore a year ago. According to Bloomberg analyst estimates, the bank was expected to post a profit of INR 1, crore. Net interest income (NII), or the core income a bank earns by giving loans, was up 15.02% to INR 2, crore versus INR 2, crore last year. Other income grew 28.4% to INR 1, crore. Provisions and contingencies surged 130.5% to INR crore in the quarter from INR crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, they increased by 53% from INR crore. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) rose marginally 4.6% to INR 3, crore at the end of the June quarter from INR 3, crore in the same quarter last year. Slippages during the quarter declined 46% to INR 321 crore against INR 594 crore a quarter ago. RBL Bank RBL Bank Ltd reported a 34.8% year on year increase in its June quarter net profit due to higher net interest income and other income. Net profit for the quarter stood at INR crore against INR crore a year ago. According to 7 Bloomberg analysts estimate, the bank was expected to post a profit of INR 191 crore. Net interest income (NII), or the core income a bank earns by giving loans, was up 46.07% to INR crore versus INR crore last year. Other income surged 26.9% to INR crore. Provisions and contingencies rose 48.58% to INR crore in the quarter from INR94.46 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, they increased by 24.4% from INR crore. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) surged 30.2% to INR crore at the end of the June quarter from INR crore in the same quarter last year. Bajaj Finance Bajaj Finance reported an 83 percent rise in its standalone net profit for the June quarter to INR crore, higher than what analysts had estimated, as it earned more in interest income and its asset quality remained stable. The non-banking finance company had reported a net profit of INR crore in the corresponding quarter last year. For the quarter under review, the NBFC reported a net interest income of INR 2,578 crore, around 46 percent higher than in the same quarter a year ago. The company's total income for the reporting quarter rose 34 percent year on year to INR 3,796 crore and its provisions were 5 percent higher at INR crore. 5

6 News Impact Domestic news NALCO to benefit from all time high Alumina Prices NALCO produced around 21 lakh tonnes of Alumina last year and is expected to maintain same levels of production for FY19 as well. We expect them to realize more than INR6000 Cr from their Alumina sales alone. Spot prices of Alumina in Shanghai Metal Market convert to around INR30000 per tonne and was seen at as high as INR34000 per tonne in some global markets. NALCO is not into any long-term contract for selling alumina and is enjoying spot sale prices on Alumina as per their latest Analyst meet on 4th June Note that the long-term contracts of Alumina globally average around INR25,500 (USD 370) per tonne. The Company s Alumina segment is expected to benefit up to INR Cr bottom-line while inter segment sales will increase loss in the Aluminium metal division by another INR300+ Cr. Hence we expect an increase of INR400+ Cr profits for NALCO. The Company also has a choice of making the most out of exporting Alumina by reducing internal consumption. The Company is currently trading near 52-week low and the near term prospects for Q1 and H1 FY19 results are expected to be better than last year. Due to strong global demand for Non-Ferrous metals and protectionist tariffs been implemented in US, we expect the prices to sustain at higher levels. Hence, we see this as a buying opportunity in NALCO for the near term. IOC, BPCL, Adani bid for most city gas licences State-owned fuel retailers IOC and BPCL as well as the Adani group were the top bidders for gas retailing licences in the country s biggest city gas distribution auction. Of the 86 cities offered for retailing of CNG to automobiles and piped cooking gas to households in the ninth round of bidding, IOC bid for 34 cities on its own and another 20 in partnership with Adani Gas Ltd, according to final bid information provided by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board. Adani Gas on its own bid for 32 cities. Bharat Gas Resources Ltd, a unit of Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), bid for as many as 53 cities while state-owned gas utility GAIL India Ltd s retailing arm, GAIL Gas Ltd, put in offers for 34 cities. Gujarat-based Torrent Gas Pvt Ltd bid for 31 cities while Gujarat Gas Ltd put in offers for 21 areas. Petronet LNG Ltd, India s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer, sought to foray into the business by bidding for the licence in seven cities. India seen hoarding China solar cells before tariff kicks in India s plan to cut imports of Chinese solar cells and modules by imposing a safeguard duty may have the opposite effect in the short run, according to ICBC International Research Ltd. Stockpiles could rise rapidly as Indian developers hoard more modules before the proposal to impose a 25 percent safeguard tariff is expected to take effect in the next two to three months. India will continue to rely heavily on imports from China over the next one to two years as imports will remain cheaper than domestic production even with the tariff. The tariff is likely to harm domestic project developers, raising costs by at least 12 percent, without affecting China s position as the key supplier of panels and modules. 6

7 News Impact Vodafone contests government's INR 3,900 crore demand ahead of Idea merger Vodafone has challenged the government's demand of INR3,900 crore as payment towards nonauctioned spectrum, while working on the merger with Idea Cellular claiming that was billed nearly 10% more than what was due. While telecom secretary Aruna Sundararajan said the merger process between the two companies is "on track" and awaits a final clearance pending submission of the required payments, Vodafone raised its queries with the ministry over payment demand. Suzuki Motorcycle to invest INR600 Cr in its second India plant Suzuki Motorcycle India aims to invest 600 crore in the first phase of its second plant, which it plans to set up in the country. The company is in the process of finalising the location of the plant which would have an installed capacity of 3-5 lakh units per annum to start with and may go up to 10 lakh units as per the market demand. The installed capacity of the first phase of the new plant would be 3-5 lakh units per annum and would go up to one million, Uchida said. Although, the company is yet to finalise the location, sources said it could come up at Punjab, Uttar Pradesh or Haryana. The company s existing facility at Gurgaon can produce up to 1 million units per annum. 7

8 Events CORPORATE ACTION BONUS / RIGHTS / STOCK SPLIT / DIVIDEND / FCCB / M&A / WARRANTS ETC. Company Record Date Ex-Date Details Shree Cement Ltd Cash dividend of INR 30 effective Century Textiles & Industries Ltd Cash dividend of INR6.50 effective Blue Dart Express Ltd Cash dividend of INR12.50 effective KEC International Ltd Cash dividend of INR2.40 effective TTK Prestige Ltd Cash dividend of INR30 effective NLC India Ltd Cash dividend of INR0.27 effective Bajaj Auto Ltd Corporate meeting effective Tata Steel Ltd Corporate meeting effective Ceat Ltd Corporate meeting effective Havells India Ltd Corporate meeting effective Domestic Events Quarterly Results: Atul Ltd., Bajaj Auto Ltd., Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd., Bata India Ltd., Havells India Ltd., Hdfc Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd., Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd., L&T Finance Holdings Ltd., Wipro Ltd., Zee Media Corporation Limited India s Foreign Exchange Reserve for the week ended July 13, Global Events Japan Inflation for June Euro Area Current Account Balance for May Source of News : The content may have been taken from The Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Mint and other leading financial newspapers and financial portals BSE,NSE, Bloomberg, Moneycontrol & others. 8

9 9

10 Disclaimer Any document, including this report, which is prepared by the research team of Stewart & Mackertich Wealth Management Ltd. (SMIFS) is circulated for the purpose of information only to the intended recipient and should not be replicated or quoted or circulated to any person/corporate or legal entities in any form. This document/ documents/ reports/ opinion should not be interpreted as an Investment/ taxation/ legal advice. While the information contained in the report has been procured in good faith, from sources considered/ believed to be reliable, all/ part of the statement/ statements/ opinion/ opinions/ view/ views in the report may not be considered to be complete or accurate. Therefore, it should only be relied upon at the recipients own risk. Research Analysts/ Economists/ Advisors/ Investment Strategists or any other spokes persons of the company (SMIFS) are often sought after for expressing their views on print/ electronic/ web media. The views expressed are purely based on their assumption/ understanding on fundamental approach/ technical and historic facts on the subject. The views expressed should not be construed as an offer to buy/ sell or hold equity/ commodity/ currencies or their derivatives. The views/ opinions expressed is for information purpose only, and may change due to underlying factors, related or unrelated or other market conditions and may or may not be updated. Stewart & Mackertich Wealth Management Ltd, its subsidiaries, or any of its directors, employees, agents, and representatives shall not be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information/ research reports/ opinions expressed. Disclosure: Clients/ associates of SMIFS Group may be holding positions in equities or their derivatives on which the research report is made or opinion is formed or views are expressed in print or electronic media. We ensure all compliance is adhered to with this report/ reports/ opinion or views expressed. Analyst ownership of the stock NIL Analyst s dependent relatives ownership in the stock NIL Analyst Certification: The matter related to the report has been taken from sources believed reliable and the views expressed about the subject or issues in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst/ analysts. Stewart & Mackertich Wealth Management Ltd. does not compensate partly or in full, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analysts/ market strategists/ Portfolio Managers. REGISTRATION as required under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulation 2014 has been granted by Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI), registration number being INH Stewart & Mackertich Wealth Management Ltd. Vaibhav, 4 Lee Road, Kolkata , West Bengal, India. Tel.: /, Fax: Website: For queries related to compliance of the report, please contact: - Sudipto Datta, Compliance Officer Contact No.: / Id.: compliance@smifs.com / sudipta@smifs.com 10

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