UNION BUDGET 2016 ORGANIZED BY BFSI AND CAPITAL MARKET STUDY GROUP OF WIRC OF ICAI PRESENTATION BY : CA MANISH CHOKSHI

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Willa White
5 years ago
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1 UNION BUDGET 2016 ORGANIZED BY BFSI AND CAPITAL MARKET STUDY GROUP OF WIRC OF ICAI PRESENTATION BY : CA MANISH CHOKSHI

2 Trends in GDP Growth Rate (%)

3 GDP CALCULATION CHANGED WEF FROM SEPT 2014

4 GDP Growth Rate Country Wise

5 IIP INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

6 FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICT %

7 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AS % TO GDP

8 BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART

9 INFLATION AT WPI WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX FROM 7.52 IN NOV 2013 TO IN JAN16

10 INFLATION - CPI IS RISING INSPITE OF FALL IN OIL PRICES. THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER REDUCTION IN INTEREST RATE MAY NOT TAKE PLACE IN 2016

11 Inflation Rate of Top 5 Countries

12 India Interest Rates 12

13 Rate of Interest of Top 5 Countries

14 FDI IN INDIA

16 INDIAN EXPORTS ARE FALLING

17 INDIAN IMPORTS ARE FALLING CONTINIOUSLY ON ACCOUNT OF OIL SLUMP

18 GOLD IMPORTS SURGES MORE THAN DOUBLE IN DEC 15 COMPARED TO DEC 14 ( in billion USD )

19 INDIAN MACRO ECONOMICS SCORE CARD

20 IS INDIA AN OASIS IN THE DESERT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IS INDIA A SWEAT SPOTIN THE WHOLE WORLD

21 CURRENCY MOVEMENTS OF EMERGING & ASIAN ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD vis-à-vis USD

23 CHINA GDP GROWTH RATE IS FALLING YEAR AFTER YEAR

24 CHINA - EXPORTS

25 CHINA IMPORTS

26 CHINA EXPORTS TO INDIA

27 CHINA CAPITAL FLOWS

28 CHINA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

29 CHINESE CURRENCY YUAN vs USD

30 Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index- FALL FROM 5353 TO 3051 =2302 PTS FALL =43 % FALL FROM IN JUN 2015.

31 BUDGET 2016 HIGHLIGHTS

32 STOCK MARKET

34 FII's MONTHLY EQUITY INVESTMENT IN IN RS. '000 CRORE

37 MONTHLY FII s INVESTMENT IN DEBT MARKET IN LAST 1 YEAR

40 A cumulative view Q3FY16 results of 4169 Companies are not encouraging

41 BSE SENSEX PE RATIO ON THIS BASIS THE MARKETS CANNOT BE SAID TO BE UNDERVALUED

42 PERFOMANCE OF BSE 30 AND BSE SECTORIAL INDICES

43 NIFTY FIFTY OUT PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY INDEX STOCKS

44 NIFTY FIFTY UNDER PERFORMANCE OF NIFTY INDEX STOCKS

45 DOW JONES COMPARE TO NIFTY NIFTY HAS FALLEN BY 20% WHILE DOW JONES HAS FALLEN BY 10%

46 JAPANESE NIKKEI & BSE 30 PERFORMANCE COMPARED

47 Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index- FALL FROM 5353 TO 3051 =2302 PTS FALL =43 % FALL FROM IN JUN 2015.

48 CHINESE INDEX COMPARED TO BSE 30

49 NIFTY INTRADAY

50 BSE SECTORIAL INDICES BUDGET DAY

51 F & O LOSERS

52 F & O GAINERS

53 NIFTY SECTORIAL INDICES

54 NSE CASH SCRIPS LOSERS

55 NSE CASH SCRIPS GAINERS

56 COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES GOLD GOLD BEES

57 GOLD IS BULLISH

58 CRUDE OIL FALLS 53% FROM 3918 IN 2 JUN 2015 TO 1844 ON 11 FEB 2016

59 EURO vs INR

60 GBP vs INR

61 USD & INR INR will continue to depreciate against USD and it will have inflationary impact

62 INR will continue to depreciate against USD Economic Survey on Currency Rupee's value must be fair, avoiding strengthening; fair value can be achieved through monetary relaxation India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in wake of a similar adjustment in China Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital inflows are weak

63 NIFTY INTRA DAY CHART ON BUDGET

64 NIFTY HAS FALLEN BY 22%

65 BANKING SECTOR DO NOT BUY NOW PSU Banks hit by huge losses RBI has mandated to clean up and to provide fully for NPA s Banks say- the provisioning will keep on happening till next 3 quarters No clarity on the quantum of losses yet Due to uncertainty banks will continue to underperform

66 SBI

67 TATA STEEL

68 RELIANCE

69 STOCKS TO WATCH ASIAN PAINTS

70 STOCKS TO WATCH DEFENSIVE STOCKS HIND UNILEVER MARICO

71 STOCKS TO WATCH IT SECTOR INFOSYS TATA ELXI

72 STOCKS TO WATCH BANKING & FINANCE SECTOR KOTAK MAHINDRA BAJAJ FINANCE CHOLAMANDALAM INV

73 STOCKS TO WATCH PHARMA & HEALTH SECTOR LUPIN SUN PHARMA APOLLO HOSPITAL AJANTA PHARMA DR REDDY

74 STOCKS TO WATCH CEMENT ULTRA TECH RAMCO CEMENTS

75 STOCKS TO WATCH AUTO EICHER MOTORS TVS MOTOR ASHOK LEYLAND M & M

76 PIDILITE RAJESH EXPORTS SUPREME INDUSTRIES PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES TORRENT POWER VAKRANGEE FINOLEX INDUSTRIES

77 NDTV TV TODAY ZEE ENTERTAINMENT IRB

78 TO SUMMARIZE Economic Growth will remain stable around 7.5% but will not show impressive rise Inflation will remain stable with a positive bias The Global Risk will continue to dampen exports INR will continue to depreciate against USD RBI may not cut rate more than 0.25 till December 2016 Corporate results are not expected to show impressive growth in the next 2 quarters

79 TO SUMMARIZE The positive effect of GDP growth of 7.5% is not felt.

80 TO SUMMARIZE Market will continue to fall Still this level is not the bottom and we may see more pain Market May touch 6300 The SIP investor should continue to invest. Economic Problems in China will put pressure on Indian markets

81 TO SUMMARIZE The Global risk still looms large Investors with fresh funds may invest say 20 % of their total investible funds now in Nifty basket or fundamentally strong scrips and keep on adding at every Nifty point fall. In a day or two the Budget will be forgotten.

82 India will continue to remain an amazing Growth Story 82

83 DISCLAIMER The stocks discussed here are for academic discussion and studies only. I do not advise to invest in any of the stocks as discussed above. Please check with your certified financial advisor before taking any decision.

84 THANKYOU VERY MUCH 84

WEEKLY UPDATE. Domestic Markets. Global Markets. Currency Update. Commodity Update. Monday 10 th February 2014

WEEKLY UPDATE. Domestic Markets. Global Markets. Currency Update. Commodity Update. Monday 10 th February 2014 GDP revision downwards triggers a selloff, but markets manage to climb back. Domestic Markets Markets ended higher on Friday but on weekly basis closed in red. The revision of GDP growth rate downwards