Real Estate Investment Analysis using Excel

Transcription

1 Graduate Certificate in Real Estate Finance (GCREF) course Real Estate Investment Analysis using Excel Sing Tien Foo Department of Real Estate 27 May Website for sample template 1

2 Quick Recap: Mathematics of Real Estate Finance 4 Time value of money The time value money is the fundamental concept of financial mathematics Money changes in value over time Time value is created by the opportunity to invest money at some interest rates Why so? Inflation, risks and productivity of capital Time is money! $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow A bird in hand is better than two in the bush 2

3 5 Compounding Effects What is the value of $1 today at the end of year 2, if the interest rate of 10% per annum? In a simple interest case (no compounding effects): o FV (Year 2) = $1.0 + ($1 x 10% x 2)= $1.2 In an annual compounding case: o Year 1 FV 1 = $1.0 x (1.1) = $1.1 o Year 2: FV 2 = $1.1 x (1.1) = $1.21 o FV(year 2) = PV x (1+i) x (1+i) = PV (1+i) 2 = $1 x (1.1) 2 = $1.21 Difference = $1.21 $1.20 = $0.01 is the COMPOUNDING effects! In a half yearly compounding case: o FV(year 2) = PV x [(1+i/2) x (1+i/2) x (1+i/2) x (1+i/2)] = PV x (1 +i/2) nx2 o FV(year 2) = $1 x ( /2) 4 = $ Simple interest versus compound interest Simple interest rate Compounding interest rate Year 3

4 7 Future Value of a Lump Sum You borrow $1 today and repay in one lump sum 1 year from now. The interest on the loan is 10%. What is the amount you owe at the end of one year? $1 Present, t = 0 10% p.a. 1 year Future value=? 8 Future value formula FV PV (1 i) i, n n (1+i) n is known as the Future Value Interest Factor Notation: FVIF i,n When you borrow money from a bank, you are expected to repay the loan with interest. FV=$1.0 x (1+.10) 1 =$1.10 Interest over 1 year = ($1.0) x 10% = $0.10 FV = PV + Interest = $ $0.10 = $1.10 4

5 9 To be a millionaire! Growth in money over time Future Value (FV(PV=10,000, i=10%,n)) At n = 49, FV = 1,067, At n =20, FV = $67, Effects of interest rate on FV What is the Future Value of $10,000 in 20 years time if interest rate is 15%? Steps: o FVIF 15%,20 = (1.15) 20 = o Future value = $10,000 x ( ) = $163,665.4 What is the future value, if interest rate drops to 10% o FV 10%,20 = $67,725.0 Exercise: What is the FV in 20 years if interest rate drops to 5% and 1%? FV 5%,20 = $10,000 x (1.05) 20 = $ FV 1%,20 = $10,000 x (1.01) 20 = $12,

6 FV ($10,000, i, n) 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 5/27/ Interest rate sensitivity $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $ Year >25 >32 >48 >94 5% 10% 15% 20% 12 Interest rate sensitivity What is the Future Value of $10,000 in 20-year time at i % interest rate? i=1%: $12,202 i =15%: $163,665 i = 20%: $383,376 6

7 Future Value ($) /27/2016 Exercise: How much is your apartment worth today? 13 What is the value of your 99-leasehold apartment bought in 1990 at $200,000, today? $1,200,000 Value of an apartment bought at $200,000 in 1990 $1,000,000 $964,469 $800,000 $600,000 $576,674 $400,000 $200,000 $341,377 $0 Axis Title 2% 4% 6% 14 Present Value formula From the FV formula: FV PV (1 i) i, n n Re-arranging the formula: PV i, n Computing the PV using the above formula: Present value=? FV (1 i) PV n 500,000 (1 5.0%) 10%,3 5 $391,763 Today, t = 0 5.0% p.a. DISCOUNTING 5 years $500,000 7

8 Exercise: You plan to replace your car in 10 years time at $150,000 Question: If your cash only earns the cpf rate of return of 2.6%, how much do you need to set aside today? 15 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 Money set aside today to replace a new car that costs $150k in year 10 $116,043 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $87,815 $40,000 $20,000 $ % 5.5% Part II CONCEPT OF ANNUITY 8

9 18 Concept of Annuity Instead of a single lump sum payment, we receive a series of payments made at equal intervals The series of payments is known as Annuities There are two types of annuity o Annuity Due = payment at the beginning of period o Regular Annuity= payment at the end of period Mortgage payments are usually made at the end of month Rental payments are made at the beginning of the month 20 Present Value of Annuity (PFA) Suppose you can pay $10,000 for 3 years for a loan which you take now. What is the loan amount if interest rate=10% compounded annually? Year 1 $10,000 * ( ) -1 $9, Year 2 $10,000 * (1+ 0.1) -2 $8, Year 3 $10,000 * (1+ 0.1) -3 $7, sum $24, $10,000 [(1+0.1) -1 + (1+0.1) -2 + (1+0.1) -3 ] = $24, now 1 year 2 years 3 years $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 Present value? Sing Tien Foo, Dept of Real Estate, NUS 9

10 PV of net rental Annuity Cumulative Rental ($) 5/27/ Present Value Annuity formula Solving the geometric series (Appendix), we can now define PVAF as PVA i, n PVAF i, n 1 1/(1 i) ANN i Since PVAF 10%,3 =2.4869, PVA 10,000(2.4869) 1 1/(1 i) i 10%,3 n n $24,869 Exercise: Value of income-generating property? 22 What is the value of a 30-year leasehold industry property that generate a monthly net rental income of $3,000? $3,500 PV of net monthly rental cash flows $600,000 $3,000 $500,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $0 10

11 23 Lecture Outline Investing in real estate Cash flow pro-forma Investment rule decision criteria Case study Real Estate Investment Risks Summary 24 Real Estate Investment Analysis Motivations for property purchase Owner occupation versus investment Reasons for owner occupation: Pride of ownership A form of wealth Consumption of housing services w/o rent Perspectives change when purchase is for investment purposes: Generate net income Capital gains Diversification Preferential tax benefits 11

12 26 Operating Cash Flows Property level unlevered cash flows Gross Rent or Potential Gross Income Effective Gross Income Operating Expenses Net Operating Income or NOI Capital Expenditure Leverage Effects Debt Service Property level cash flow pro-forma (unleveraged) 27 Operating cash flows (all years): Potential Gross Income = PGI Less Vacancy Allowance = - v + Other Income (eg, parking, laundry) = +OI Effective Gross Income = EGI - Operating Expenses = - OE Net Operating Income = NOI Reversion cash flow (disposal of asset): Property Value at time of sale = V - Selling Expenses (eg, brokerage fees, legal fees) = - SE Property-level Before-tax Cash Flow = PBTCF (Net sale value) 12

13 28 Potential Gross Income (PGI) Rental income assuming 100% occupancy Important issue: Contract rent or market rent? Market rent is the most probable rent a property will command, if placed for lease on the open market Contract rent is actual rent paid under the contractual agreement between landlord and tenants If a property is subject to long-term leases, contract rent will be used eg. sale-leaseback leases in some industrial properties 29 Types of Leases Straight lease Level lease payments Step-up or graduated lease Rent increases on a predetermined schedule Indexed lease Rent tied to an inflation index, such as Consumer Price Index, Union wage index, etc. Percentage lease Rent includes percentage of tenant s sales 13

14 30 Effective Gross Income Vacancy and collection loss Historical experience Competing properties in the market Natural vacancy rate Vacancy rate that is expected in a stable or equilibrium market Miscellaneous income Car-parking collection Signage and advertising space vending machines Rentals for clubhouse / promotional space 31 Operating Expenses Ordinary and regular expenditures necessary to keep a property functioning competitively Fixed expenses that do not vary with occupancy: insurance, property taxes Variable expenses that vary with occupancy: utilities maintenance and supplies service contracts 14

15 Feasibility of investing in the Office building 33 Case facts: Net floor area= 200,633 sq ft Purchase price = 158.5million Current market rent = $8.0 psf/month Rental growth rate = 3% p.a. Rents are reviewed every 3 years Service charges = $1.5 psf/month (grow at 1% p.a) Property tax rate = 10% of gross rent Terminal value at EOY 5 based on 1% p.a. price growth Cost of disposal = 1.5% Expected discount rate is 7% Assume investor uses 100% equity Construct a cash flow pro-forma Steps in DCF analysis 34 Projecting Cash Flows Net Operating Income (NOI) Terminal Value of Property Cash flows can be cash inflows or cash outflows Convention: Cash inflows are positive cash flows (+) Cash outflows are negative cash flows (-) Investment Measures/Investment Rules Holding Period Discount Rate 15

16 35 Projection of NOI Cash Flow Pro-forma: Year Equity outlay -$158,500,000 Potential Gross Rental Income (PGRI) $19,260,768 $19,260,768 $19,260,768 $19,453,376 $19,453,376 Other Operating Income Less Vacancy $3,852,154 $3,852,154 $3,852,154 $3,890,675 $3,890,675 Effective Gross Rental Income (EGRI) $15,408,614 $15,408,614 $15,408,614 $15,562,701 $15,562,701 Operating Expenses/ Service Charges $2,889,115 $2,889,115 $2,889,115 $2,889,115 $2,889,115 Property Tax $1,540,861 $1,540,861 $1,540,861 $1,556,270 $1,556,270 Net Operating Income (NOI) $10,978,638 $10,978,638 $10,978,638 $11,117,315 $11,117, Estimating Terminal Value Holding Period=5 years How do determine terminal/reversionary value? 2 methods: A simple compounded growth at a constant rate (say 1% p.a.) Value = $158,500,000 x (1+0.01) 5 = $166,585,093 Going out cap rate, k, and EOY6 NOI Value = (EOY6-NOI) / k = $12,305,161/7.4% = $166,285,959 Cost of disposal = 1.5% Based on method 1, Terminal value at EOY 5 = $166,585,093 * ( ) = $164,086,317 16

17 37 Estimating PV of cash flows Discounting factor = 7% Year Before tax equity cash flow (net): -$158,500,000 $11,123,094 $11,086,980 $11,050,505 $12,379,949 $176,429,058 Present value factor PV of equity cash flow: -$158,500,000 $10,395,415 $9,683,797 $9,020,503 $9,444,604 $125,791,480 Net Present Value (NPV) 38 Net Present Value (NPV) is the discounted cash flows less the initial investment cost (I 0 ) NPV T t t t1 (1 r) CF Where CF t = cash flow at time t; r = total discount rate; and T=holding period If I is spread over two periods, say I 0 at t=0 and I 1 at t=1, then T CFt NPV t (1 r) I I 0 t1 1 0 I1 r 17

18 39 Profitability Index Profitability Index (PI) is the ratio of the present value of cash inflows to the initial equity invested (present value of cash outflows). PI = PV(inflows)/PV(outflows) PI greater than 1 implies that expected return exceeds the discount rate. 40 Internal Rate of Return (IRR) The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the rate of return required to make the present values of future cash flows equal to the cost of the investment. I T=holding period CF T t t t1 (1 IRR) 18

19 41 Investment Rules Investment measures: Net Present Value (NPV) Profitability Index (PI) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) If you decide whether to invest or not, then the rule is very simple Invest if NPV >0 PI > 1 IRR > r 42 Leverage Definition: Benefits accrued to an investor who borrows money at a rate of interest lower than the expected rate of return on total funds invested in a property The term levered or leveraged refers to the ability of an investor to increase the returns on equity through the use of debt Leverage ratio (LR): LR V 1 V D 1 L V Where V = asset value, E = equity value, D = debt value, L/V = Loan to value ratio V E 19

20 Funding acquisition with debt Case 3: acquisition of HSBC building 46 Using 40% debt At fixed rate of 4% interest rate (monthly compounding) Loan term of 20 years Corporate tax 17% (for non-reit institutions) Project the property-level after-tax equity cash flows 48 Net Present Value using WACC To find the value of the project, discount the unlevered cash flows at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC): N UCFt NPV I t 0 (1 r ) Where UCF t = unlevered cash flow before debt at time t I 0 = initial cash outlay r WACC = weighted average cost of capital = (L/V) r d + (1- L/V) r e L/V = Loan to value ratio r d = cost of debt t1 r e = equity investor s return N = number of investment periods WACC 20

21 49 Determining WACC WACC formula is dependent on the capital structure at the firm level, not at the project level Let r e = levered equity return; r d =c ost of debt; = corporate tax rate; Total Capital V = E (equity) + D (Debt) r WACC D E rd ( 1 ) r E D E D For a firm with a capital structure of D/V = 0.4 E/V = 0.6, and r e = 10% and r d = 4% and = 17% r WACC 0.4 4% (1 17%) 0.610% 7.328% e 51 Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) Expenditures that materially increase value of a structure or prolong its life: Roof replacement Additions and alterations HVAC Replacement Resurfacing of parking areas Tenant improvements Estimating CAPEX: Sinking fund: An amount invested annually that compounds to the needed CAPEX in a future year. Straight-line: For an expenditure n years away, an amount equal to the needed CAPEX divided by n. Actual expenditures: The actual amount expected in each year of the expected holding period 21

22 52 Effects of capex on NOI Source: Fisher (1995), Real Estate Finance 53 Derivation of NOI (revisited) Operating cash flows (all years): Potential Gross Income = PGI - Vacancy Allowance = - v + Other Income (eg, parking, laundry) = +OI Effective Gross Income = EGI - Operating Expenses = - OE Net Operating Income = NOI - Capital Expenditures = - C Property-level Before-tax Cash Flow = PBTCF Reversion cash flow (disposal of asset): Property Value at time of sale = V - Selling Expenses (eg, broker) = - SE Property-level Before-tax Cash Flow = PBTCF (Net sale value) 22

23 Net Operating Income (NOI) and Capital Expenditure (Capex) 54 Capex Reserve for replacements Tenant improvement Leasing commissions Above-line or below-line approach Above Line: EGI - OE - CAPX = NOI Below Line: EGI - OE = NOI - CAPX = Net Cash Flow Asset Enhancement Initiatives (AEI) Case 2: The Extension of IMM Building 55 CAPITAMALL Trust (CMT) acquired the IMM Building in Jurong for $264.5 million in 2003 IMM completed a major revamp in Dec 2007 by building a three-storey annexed block on the ground level openair carpark The first floor of the new block will consist of retail space while the parking space will be moved to the upper floors. CMT expects IMM purchase to raise returns. By Vladimir Guevarra. 14 May 2003 Straits Times 23

24 56 Some background facts of IMM AEIs Major asset enhancement works at IMM were completed on schedule in December A new two-storey retail extension block with over 20,000 sq ft of retail space was created Following the successful revamp, average rental at IMM increased 34.3%, from S$7.99 per sq ft to S$10.73 per sq ft per month An incremental rental revenue of S$13.3 million per annum. Based on a capital expenditure of S$92.5 million, the entire scope of work contributed to an incremental NPI of S$10.0 million per annum and achieved an ungeared ROI of 10.8%. Estimate the investment return of the AEIs Property details & some assumptions (hypothetical) 57 As in 2003 Major AEI in 2007 Net Lettable Area (retail) 877,252.0 sq ft Additional 20,000 sqf Number of Tenants 510 About 600 Car Park Spaces Title Acquisition Price (2003 Capex (2007) 30 years Leasehold term wef 23 January 1999 S$264.5 million No change $92.5million Occupancy 76.7% 85% Effective Gross Rental Income S$45.0 million Incremental = $13.3million Operating Expenses (including property tax) $23.0 million Incremental = $3.3 million Rental growth rate 2% 2% 24

25 58 Avoiding Pitfalls in DCF applications GIGO Garbage in garbage out Common mistakes Rental / income growth assumption is too high Capital improvement and going-out cap rate projections are too low Discount rate is too high Errors are hidden in the DCF model, which may create false expectation for investors in the long-run Consequences of the mistakes Unrealistic expectations Long-run undermining credibility of DCF methodology Thank you Read the fine print. Look for hidden assumptions. Check realism of assumptions. 59 References Ling, D.C. and Archer, W.R. (2005), Real Estate Principles: A Value Approach, McGraw Hill Brueggeman, W.B. and Fisher, J.D. (2011), Real Estate Finance and Investments, 14 th Edition, McGraw Hill 25