Market Update November s trading volume and flows

Transcription

1 December 1th, 214 Colombia, Equities Colombian Equity Market Players Foreign investors returned to the buying side, but with significantly smaller numbers During Nov14 total traded volume in the Colombian stock exchange continued declining. The Average Daily Traded Volume (ADTV) stood at USD 76 mn, 6.93% y/y. The sharp fall observed on the COLCAP index (6.68% m/m) along with the significant devaluation that the COP suffered during the month (+5.59% m/m in the COP/USD exchange rate); the tax reform bill currently making its way through Congress; and the decreasing trend in oil prices, kept influencing the ADTV. Nevertheless, we highlight that the return of the foreigners may be a positive sign, probably showing that current levels of the FX rate, and valuations of some names are showing attractive entry points for Colombian equities. Foreign Investors. In Nov14 foreign investors returned to the buying side, after two months as net sellers, reaching a figure of USD 3.2 mn, a significantly smaller amount than the average USD 143 mn buying position observed during the rest of the year (8 months as net buyers), and more importantly, the USD 24 mn sold in SeptemberOctober. Yeartodate, foreigners remain as the largest buyers reaching a total amount of USD mn. Market Update November s trading volume and flows COLCAP & Traded Volume USD mn (LTM) 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1, Nov13 Mar14 Jul14 Nov14 COLCAP Performance LTM Nov % 6.23% 6.68% Source: Bloomberg, BVC, Credicorp Capital Institutional Investors. Local pension funds remained as net sellers during the month and reached a significant amount of USD mn, their largest selling position of 214. The uncertainty surrounding a new decree that may change the pension funds minimum profitability and investment regime, may be influencing their behavior. Nevertheless, this moves also might be indicative of the AFPs actual view towards local equities; pension funds remain as the largest seller yeartodate with a total amount of USD 82.7 mn. Local Retail. These agents were net sellers with a figure of USD 7.2 mn, a small number relative to the buying position of USD 72.2 mn accumulated over the previous two months. This behavior may be explained by the negative performance of the Colombian market, particularly in the oil & gas sector, where local retail has been a relevant investor. Brokerage Firms. Brokerage firms remained as net sellers for the third consecutive month reaching a figure of USD 3. mn, well below October s USD 16.3 mn. That said, YTD brokerage firms accumulated a buying position of USD mn and they are currently placed behind foreigners and ADRs. CREDICORP CAPITAL EQUITY RESEARCH Sebastián Gallego +(571) ext sgallego@credicorpcapital.com César Cuervo, CFA +(571) ext. 112 ccuervo@credicorpcapital.com This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly called Credicorp Capital ), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it may altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on information from public sources. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audit the information in any way.. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors.

2 ADR Program Foreigners Local Retail Pension Funds Corporate Brokerage Firms Other Daily Average Traded Volume (USD mn) Market Players Share in Traded Volume Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7% 5% 8% 9% 1% 8% 9% 8% 16% 18% 22% 2% 19% 22% 16% 14% 13% 13% 17% 1% 1% 1% 13% 18% 43% 5% 28% 2% 4% 35% 36% 14% 2% 26% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% Nov14 Othe r Brockera ge Firms Corp ora te Pen sion Funds Local Retail Fore ig ners ADR Program Market Players Net Transactions (Annual, USD mn) Local Retail Monthly Net Transactions (USD mn) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 (5) (1,) (1,5) (2,) Nov14 5 (5) () (15) (25) () Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Foreign Investors Monthly Net Transactions (USD mn) 4 () Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Pension Funds Monthly Net Transactions (USD mn) (5) () (15) (25) Nov11 Nov12 Nov13 Nov14 Source: BVC, Credicorp Capital. 2

3 Market Players Summary November 214 Transactions (USD mn) November 214 November 213 Investor Transactions Buyer Transactions Seller Net Share % (1) Share % (1) ADR Program % 4.4% Foreigners % 18.3% Local Retail % 17.6% Pension Funds % 17.6% Corporate % 11.4% Brokerage Firms % 18.7% Other (2) % 12.% Total 1, ,369.9.%.% 214 YTD Transactions (USD mn) YTD Investor Transactions Buyer Transactions Seller Net Share % (1) Share % (1) ADR Program 1, % 4.4% Foreigners 5, , % 19.7% Local Retail 3, , % 19.7% Pension Funds 1, , % 13.4% Corporate 2, , % 11.4% Brokerage Firms 3, , % 2.3% Other (2) 1,65.5 1, % 11.% Total 19, ,164.3.%.% Source: BVC, Credicorp Capital 1. Participation (share) calculated over the total amount of buyer and seller side transactions 2. Includes: Other Investment Portfolios, Banks, Insurance Companies, Funds, Trusts and other Investment Vehicles. 3

4 Important Disclosures This report is property of IM Trust S.A. and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital Perú S.A.A. and/or its subsidiaries (hereinafter jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital ), therefore, no part of this the material or its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted, copied or distributed to any third party without prior and express written consent of Credicorp Capital. In making this report, Credicorp Capital has relied on public information. Credicorp Capital has not verified the truthfulness, completeness or accuracy of the information accessed, nor has audited the information in any way. Accordingly, this report does not constitute a statement, assertion or guarantee (express or implied) as to the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any other written or oral information furnished to any person and/or their advisors. Unless otherwise stated, the information used in this report is not confidential, nor constitutes privileged information that may mean the violation of the rules of the stock market, or that could mean failure to comply with copyright legislation. This report is not intended and shall not be understood in any way as to: a) predict the future or guarantee a specific financial result; b) ensure the fulfillment of the scenarios described in it; c) be an investment advice or opinion that could be considered as Credicorp Capital recommendations. The information contained in this report is only for referential purposes. While reading it, you should consider that the information contained in this report may be oriented to a specific segment of clients or investors, with a certain risk profile that may not be yours. Unless otherwise stated, this report does not contain investment recommendations or other suggestions that may be understood to be given under the stock market intermediaries special duty to clients classified as investors. When recommendations are made, the report will clearly specify the investors risk profile to which the recommendation is intended. Credicorp Capital can seek and/or conduct business with companies that are mentioned in the report, and they can also execute buying and selling transactions of shares that are mentioned. It is important to state that the fluctuation in exchange rates can have adverse effects on investments values. It is client responsibility to determine how to use the information contained in this report. Hence, the client is the sole responsible for investment decisions or any other operation he/she might perform in the stock market based on this report. In other words, the investment or operation result made by the client using the information contained in this report is of her/his sole responsibility. Credicorp Capital does not assume any responsibility, obligation or duty for any action or omission derived from the use of this document. Credicorp Capital recommends to their clients to ask for professional advice from financial, legal, accounting, tax experts before adopting an investment decision. Under no circumstances the information contained in this report may be considered as a financial, legal, accounting or taxation opinion, neither as a recommendation or investment advice. Rating System Rating Buy Hold Underperform Definition Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over the expected return of the local index, over the next 1218 months. Expected returns of +/ 5% in excess/below the expected return of the local index over the next 1218 months. Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage points or more over the next 1218 months. N of Companies covered with this rating Companies covered with this rating (% ) 36 44% 32 39% 9 Under Review / Restricted Company coverage is under review or restricted. 5 6% Total 82 %

5 CONTACT LIST ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM SALES & TRADING Heinrich Lessau Director of Research Hugo Horta Director of Sales & Trading EQUITY RESEARCH EQUITY SALES & TRADING CHILE COLOMBIA PERU Hernán Arellano Head of Equities Francisca Manuschevich César Cuervo Alejandro Rabanal Head of Equity Research Head of North Andean Equity Research Head of Research # (562) # (571) Ext 112 # (511) Ext 367 Javier Günther Marilyn Macdonald Cristián Castillo International Equity Sales International Equity Sales International Sales Trader Christopher DiSalvatore Jaime Pedroza Héctor Collantes jgunther@credicorpcapital.com mar_macdonald@btconnect.com ccastillo@credicorpcapital.com Associate: Retail & Financials Senior Analyst: Utilities Head of Equity Research # (562) # (4477) # (786) cdisalvatore@credicorpcapital.com jpedroza@credicorpcapital.com hcollantes@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 125 # (511) Ext 3352 CHILE PERU COLOMBIA Arturo Prado Juan C. Domínguez Fernando Pereda René Ossa Rodrigo Zavala Juan A. Jiménez Senior Analyst: Natural Resources Senior Analyst: Banks Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities International Equity Sales Head of Equity Peru Head of International Equity Sales aprado@credicorpcapital.com jcdominguez@credicorpcapital.com fpereda@credicorpcapital.com reneossa@credicorpcapital.com rzavala@credicorpcapital.com jjimenez@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 126 # (511) Ext # (562) # (511) Ext 3644 # (571) Ext 171 Andrés Ossa Sebastián Gallego Iván Bogarín Christian Munchmeyer Ursula Mitterhofer Santiago Castro Analyst: Utilities, Telecom & I.T. Analyst: Oil & Gas Senior Analyst: Retail & Others International Sales & Trading Sales & Trading International Sales & Trading aossa@credicorpcapital.com sgallego@credicorpcapital.com ibogarin@credicorpcapital.com cmunchmeyer@credicorpcapital.com umitterhofer@credicorpcapital.com scastro@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1594 # (511) Ext 3355 # (562) # (511) Ext # (571) Ext 1344 Tomás Sanhueza Carlos E. Rodriguez Omar Avellaneda Research Analyst Analyst: GEA & infrastructure Senior Analyst: Infrastructure tsanhueza@credicorpcapital.com cerodriguez@credicorpcapital.com eavellaneda@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 1365 # (511) Ext 3665 Pilar González Tamara Vasquez Analyst: Transport Research Assistant mpgonzalez@credicorpcapital.com tamaravasqueza@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (511) Ext Felipe García Head of Fixed Income Lourdes Alamos fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com Research Coordinator & Holdings Analyst lalamos@credicorpcapital.com # (562) CHILE COLOMBIA PERU FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING Gonzalo Covarrubias Carlos Sanchez Alfredo Bejar Head of Capital Markets Head of Fixed Income Head of Fixed Income / FX Trading gcovarrubias@credicorpcapital.com csanchez@credicorpcapital.com alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com CHILE COLOMBIA PERU # (562) # (571) # (511) Ext Paulina Yazigi Daniel Velandia Alejandro Rabanal Guido Riquelme Christian Jarrin Vallerie Yong Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Research Head of Sales RM Fixed Income Offshore Local FI Senior Trader pyazigi@credicorpcapital.com dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com arabanal@credicorpcapital.com griquelme@credicorpcapital.com cjarrin@credicorpcapital.com vyong@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 155 # (511) Ext 367 # (562) # (571) # (511) # (511) Felipe Lubiano Sergio Ferro Irvin León Belén Larraín Andrés Valderrama Evangeline Arapoglou Senior Fixed Income Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Senior Fixed Income Analyst Head of International FI Sales Fixed Income Trader Senior International FI Trader flubiano@credicorpcapital.com sferro@credicorpcapita.com ileon@credicorpcapital.com blarrain@credicorpcapital.com jvalderramma@credicorpcapital.com earapoglou@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (571) Ext 169 # (511) Ext # (562) # (571) # (511) # (511) Paulina Valdivieso Camilo A. Durán Alberto Zapata Paz Stepke José Andrés Riveros Lizeth Espíritu Fixed Income Analyst Macro Analyst Fixed Income Analyst International Fixed Income Sales Fixed Income Trader Fixed Income Trader pvaldivieso@credicorpcapital.com caduran@credicorpcapital.com azapatag@credicorpcapital.com pstepke@credicorpcapital.com jriveros@credicorpcapital.com lespiritu@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (5511) Ext # (511) Ext 3618 # (562) # (571) Ext 118 # (511) # (511) Andrés Osorio Benjamín Diaz Economist Local Fixed Income Sales aosorio@credicorpcapital.com bdiaz@credicorpcapital.com # (562) # (562)