CEMEX Cement. Quarterly Report February 9, CEMEX remains on track to regain its investment grade.
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- Wilfred Andrews
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1 Quarterly Report CEMEX Market Outperformer 2017 Price Target US$11.0 Price M Price Range 4.1/9.5 Shares Outstanding (Mill)* 1,545 Market Cap USD (Mill) 13,797 Float 78.6% Net Debt USD (Mill)** 12,516 EV USD (Mill) 27,947 Dividend Yield 4.0% *Including Convertibles **Net debt includes Perpetual Notes e 2018e Revenues 13,648 13,587 14,223 EBITDA 2,786 2,898 3,214 Net Profit FCF 1,398 1,064 1,222 EPS P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Figures in US$ million Lilian Ochoa +52(55) ext Alejandro Azar +52(55) ext CEMEX remains on track to regain its investment grade. CEMEX achieved its 2016 guidance in terms of deleverage. Despite a challenging economic environment worldwide, which led consolidated cement to remain practically flat and after facing a stronger USD, affecting pricing dynamics and operating cost, CEMEX achieved sound profitability improvements mainly due to the success of its Value before Volume strategy and cost reduction initiatives. Better still, the company surpassed our debt reduction expectation, as its efforts to reduce cost and expenses, its FCF generation initiatives, and its asset divestments yielded returns, which translated into a consolidated funded debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.22x in 2016, below CEMEX s 4.25x target. The latter proves the company s commitment to regain its investment grade, while still delivering shareholder value. We are increasing our 2017 price target of US$11.0, while maintaining our Market Outperformer recommendation, as our investment thesis remains unchanged, based on a favorable long-term outlook, mainly in the Americas, and potential FCF generation, in order to enhance financial position and strengthen balance sheet. However, we should note that we are adjusting our revenues and EBITDA estimates for 2017 and onwards, to incorporate the recent USD appreciation. The latter is practically offset in our valuation by the increase in our FCF generation forecast, in addition to the proceeds from its 23.0% stake in GCC, and the consolidation of Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL). CEMEX 2017 guidance: Low single-digit volume increases across all its products: Cement ( % YOY), Ready mix: ( % YOY) and Aggregates (0-3.0% YOY), in line with our estimates. Higher 2016 & 2017 asset divestment: From US$1.5-US$2.0 billion to ~US$2.5 billion Higher 2016 & 2017 debt reduction: From US$3.0-US$3.5 billion to US$3.5-US$4.0 billion. 4Q16 Highlights: Consolidated revenues remained pressured by the strong USD. Total sales declined 4.2% YOY, as the higher prices in local currency terms across all regions except SCA&C, and the stronger demand in Mexico were more than offset by the effect of the USD appreciation YOY. On a like-to-like basis, revenues would have increased around 4.0% YOY. Profitability expansion remains as a trend. Operating profit and EBITDA margins increased 200 and 100 bps, to 14.2 and 20.5%, respectively, mainly driven by CEMEX s cost-reduction efforts, lower distribution expenses, and its Value-before-Volume initiative. Thus, operating profit and EBITDA increased 11.8 and 0.6% YOY, respectively. On a like-to-like basis, operating profit and EBITDA would have expanded around 24.0 and 10.0% YOY, respectively. Bottom line recorded US$213.7 million (+48.4% YOY), due to its operating performance, lower financial expenses (-11.8% YOY), and F/X gains. Strong FCF generation grabbed the spotlight during the quarter. It stood at US$544.0 million (+11.2% YOY) translating into a FCF conversion ratio of 83.2%. The latter resulted from CEMEX s liability and working capital management, and lower maintenance CAPEX. Including the proceeds from the sale of certain US assets to GCC, CEMEX s net debt plus perpetual notes decreased 6.4% QOQ, improving the consolidated funded debt to EBITDA ratio from 4.52 to 4.22x.
2 CEMEX 2017 Guidance. YOY % change Domestic gray cement Guidance 2017 Ready mix Aggregates Consolidated Mexico 1% / 3% 1% / 3% 0% / 3% 0% / 3% 0% / 3% 0% / 3% US 1% / 3% 1% / 3% 1% / 3% Colombia 0.0% 1% / 3% 0.0% Panama 1% / 3% 1% / 3% 1% / 3% Costa Rica 1% / 3% 1% / 3% 1% / 3% UK -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% Spain 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Germany 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Poland 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% France N/A 3.0% 1.0% Philippines 7.0% N/A N/A Egypt 0.0% 0.0% N/A Source: Company data CEMEX 2017 FCF Guidance. Figures in US$ million Period Account 2017 Guidance CAPEX US$730m 2017 Investment in Working Capital US$50m Cash Taxes US$325m Reduction in Cost of Debt US$125m CEMEX 2017 Asset Divestment and Debt Reduction Guidance. Figures in US$ billion Period 2016 & 2017 Initiatives Asset Divestments Total Debt Reduction Targets Announced 2016 New Targets US$ b ~US$2.5b US$ b US$ b
3 Regions dynamics. Operating Breakdown (YOY %) Price variation in Local Currency terms Total sales Source: GBM with Company Data. EBITDA Cement prices Cement volume Ready Mix prices Ready Mix volume Aggregates prices Aggregates Mexico 4.4% 6.1% 19.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 10.0% 12.0% US -1.9% 13.5% 4.0% -3.0% 2.0% -4.0% 1.0% 0.0% SCA&C -7.5% -13.3% -6.0% 1.0% 1.0% -10.0% 4.0% -11.0% Europe -8.9% -14.0% 1.0% -2.0% -2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% AMEA -21.9% -15.2% 6.0% -14.0% 2.0% -10.0% 10.0% 5.0% Region s Dynamics Mexico USA SCA&C Revenues increased 4.3%, thanks to greater across all segments and a generalized price hike in local currency terms. The strong volume figures are explained by the industrial & commercial segment, as well as formal housing and self-construction sectors. Operating and EBITDA margin expanded 160 and 50 bps, respectively, mainly given the Value-before-Volume and cost reduction initiatives. On a like-to-like basis, revenues and EBITDA would have increased around 25.0 and 28.0% YOY, respectively. US sales suffered from lower because of a tough comparable effect in 2015 due to unseasonably good weather. This disadvantageous effect fully offset a stronger residential sector, in turn, driven by lower interest rates and inventories. EBITDA margin maintained its encouraging performance, rising 280 bps YOY, supported mainly by cost reduction initiatives and lower energy costs. Top line declined 8.0% YOY, with lower registered in ready-mix and aggregates, reflecting infrastructure project delays and macroeconomic challenges absorbed during the year. SCA&C operating and EBITDA margins contracted 220 and 20 bps, in the same order, mainly due to weak demand, higher maintenance activities, and an extraordinary labor costs related to the cement capacity expansion project in Colombia. Europe In the Europe region, revenues fell 8.9% YOY, as lower in Spain and Poland related to a declining infrastructure activity, were enough to offset higher cement in the UK and Germany, buoyed by a strong residential sector. As for profitability, operating margin expanded 120 bps, because of lower distribution expenses and CEMEX's cost-reduction efforts. Meanwhile, EBITDA margins contracted 60 bps, in our view given the lower asset base. AMEA Revenues decreased 21.9% YOY, driven by lower cement in both the Philippines and Egypt, as the former was impacted by La Niña-like weather and a weakening demand related to the new government s transition, while in Egypt, the currency devaluation in early November triggered inflation, reducing purchasing power, and thus construction activity. However, on the profitability front, operating and EBITDA margins expanded 170 and 180 bps, each, supported by CEMEX's Value-before-Volume initiative and the lower energy costs in Egypt.
4 Changes in Estimates and Valuation. We are adjusting our revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2017 and onwards, to incorporate the recent USD appreciation. The latter is practically offset in our valuation by the increase in our FCF generation forecast to recognize the better than expected results of the company s initiatives in terms of reduced interest expenses and working capital days We are also consolidating the acquisition of Trinidad Cement Limited, which happened during 1Q17. Lastly, we are adding the proceeds from the sale of its 23.0% stake in Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua, considering the mid-range of the IPO pricing, while maintaining its 20.72% stake at current prices. Financials (US$ mill) Old New Old New Old New P&L Revenue 13,707 13,587 14,225 14,223 14,769 14,772 Var (%) -1.1% -0.5% 3.8% 4.7% 3.8% 3.9% Operating Profit 2,015 1,991 2,299 2,263 2,497 2,448 Var (%) 6.0% 4.8% 14.1% 13.7% 8.6% 8.2% Operating Mg. 14.7% 14.7% 16.2% 15.9% 16.9% 16.6% EBITDA 2,948 2,898 3,236 3,214 3,456 3,429 Var (%) 5.0% 4.0% 9.8% 10.9% 6.8% 6.7% EBITDA Mg. 21.5% 21.3% 22.8% 22.6% 23.4% 23.2% Interest -1,035-1, Taxes Net Profit Var (%) 7.7% 1.0% 15.0% 13.9% 12.1% 11.5% Net Mg. 5.5% 5.5% 6.1% 6.0% 6.5% 6.4% Balance Sheet Cash Accounts Receivable 1,708 1,664 1,689 1,646 1,689 1,628 Inventory 1, , , Fixed Assets 11,850 11,144 12,057 11,352 12,270 11,401 Total Assets 29,275 28,626 28,953 28,311 28,490 28,000 Accounts Payable 1,842 2,164 1,869 2,196 1,897 2,229 Debt 12,237 11,966 11,017 10,744 9,659 9,384 Total Liabilities 18,432 18,384 17,249 17,217 15,820 16,689 Equity 10,843 10,242 11,704 11,094 12,670 11,311 FCF Operating Profit 2,015 1,991 2,299 2,263 2,497 2,448 Depreciation Interests Cash tax Working Capital CAPEX Free Cash Flow* 1,068 1,064 1,220 1,222 1,358 1,360 *Includes Other Cash Income/Expenses
5 CEMEX s SOP Valuation Figures in US$ million Divisions EBITDA 2017e EV/EBITDA TTM EV Net Debt 2017e Equity Value Ownership Value to Cemex CEMEX excl. CLH 2, x 25,790 9,381 16, % 15,195 CLH* , % 1,809 Sum of the Parts Value 2,898 17,004 Theoretical Price per Share 11.0 Current Price per Share 8.9 Premium/(Discount) to Sum of the Parts -18.9% *Considering our price target for CLH. Source: GBM estimates CEMEX s DCF Valuation Figures in US$ thousand 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Perpetuity CF EBITDA 2,897,941 3,214,448 3,428,751 3,614,426 3,793,872 3,793,872 Taxes -319, , , , , ,000 CAPEX -733, , , , , ,000 Change in working capital 47,553 56,894 14,772 7,619 1,567 FCF to the firm 1,892,731 2,010,257 2,104,844 2,152,535 2,197,213 2,843,872 DCF 1,892,731 1,834,705 1,753,272 1,636,418 1,524,512 20,621,935 NPV 29,263,573 WACC 9.6% Net debt* 10,806,600 Perpetual notes 438,000 Minority 1,582,683 Theoretical mkt cap 16,436,290 # Shares 1,545,004 ADR P target $10.6 Current price $8.9 Discount (Premium) 19.1% WACC Equity Weight 44.5% Debt Weight 55.5% Risk Free Rate 7.0% Market Risk Rate 12.0% Beta 1.7 Cost of Equity 15.7% Weighted Cost of Equity 7.0% Interest rate 6.6% Tax rate 30.0% Cost of Debt 4.6% Weighted Cost of Debt 2.6% WACC 9.6% SOP PRICE $11.0 THEORETICAL AVG PRICE $10.8 GCC Stake $ PRICE TARGET $11.0 Upside 21.2% Source: GBM with company data *Includes the sale of assets of around US$1.7 billion.
6 GBM Estimates Figures in US$ million Financials (US$ Mill) e 2018e 2019e Volume Growth YOY* e 2018e 2019e P&L Cement 0.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.0% Revenue 13,648 13,587 14,223 14,772 Ready-Mix -2.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.7% Var (%) -2.4% -0.5% 4.7% 3.9% Aggregates 2.0% 2.9% 2.1% 3.0% Gross Profit 4,806 4,830 5,125 5,350 Gross Mg. 35.2% 35.5% 36.0% 36.2% Valuation e 2018e 2019e Operating Profit 1,901 1,991 2,263 2,448 EPS Operating Mg. 13.9% 14.7% 15.9% 16.6% P/E 18.6x 18.5x 16.2x 14.5x EBITDA 2,786 2,898 3,214 3,429 EV/EBITDA 10.0x 9.2x 7.9x 7.0x Var (%) 6.5% 4.0% 10.9% 6.7% P/B 1.7x 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x EBITDA Mg. 20.4% 21.3% 22.6% 23.2% P/Sales 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x Interest (1,151) (1,005) (946) (900) Taxes (169) (441) (456) (497) Return e 2018e 2019e Net Profit ROA 2.6% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% Var (%) % 1.0% 13.9% 11.5% ROE 9.1% 8.5% 8.8% 9.6% Net Mg. 5.4% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% ROIC 3.6% 3.6% 4.2% 4.9% Balance Sheet FCF Yield 10.1% 7.7% 8.9% 9.9% Cash Dividend Yield 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Accounts Receivable 1,445 1,664 1,646 1,628 Buyback Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Inventory Fixed Assets 10,961 11,144 11,352 11,401 Leverage e 2018e 2019e Total Assets 28,944 28,626 28,311 28,000 Debt/Equity 1.3x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x Accounts Payable 2,132 2,164 2,196 2,229 Net Debt/EBITDA 4.5x 4.1x 3.3x 2.7x Debt 12,635 11,966 10,744 9,384 Interest Coverage 1.9x 2.4x 2.9x 3.3x Total Liabilities 19,450 18,384 17,217 16,689 Equity 9,494 10,242 11,094 11,311 Turnover (Days of) e 2018e 2019e FCF Accounts Receivable Operating Profit 1,901 1,991 2,263 2,448 Inventory Depreciation Payables Interests (989) (829) (788) (745) Cash Conversion Cash tax (304) (319) (432) (488) -Working Capital Liquidity e 2018e 2019e -CAPEX (690) (734) (829) (850) Current Ratio 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x Free Cash Flow* 1,398 1,064 1,222 1,360 Quick Ratio 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x *Includes Other Cash Items **Includes Divestments and the TCL consolidation
7 Investment Risks In addition to the risks related to macroeconomic aspects, we believe the most relevant risk in the Mexican market is: during the last couple of years, there has been a significant flow of global funds into the Mexican market in search of new investment opportunities. There is no guarantee that, going forward, these flows will remain at current levels. The company s particular risks include: 1) Lower than anticipated recovery in any of its markets (US, Mexico, Spain, Latin America, Europe and Asia); 2) Higher financial burden given debt refinancing; 3) Tight credit markets coupled with the construction slowdown; and 4) Increased competition could cause downward pressure on margins, hence on profits Stock Price Performance vs Analyst Estimates /10/ M arket Outperformer 14/12/ M arket Outperformer 09/02/ M arket Outperformer 3.0 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Important Disclosures: Price Price Target The analyst or analysts involved in the creation of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal opinions and that they have not and will not receive direct or indirect compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report. This report has been prepared by GBM and is subject to change without notice. GBM and employees shall have no obligation to update or amend any information contained herein. This report is for informational purposes only, based upon publicly available information, which we believed is reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. GBM makes no express or implied representations or warranties that such information is accurate or complete and, therefore, GBM and employees shall not in any way be liable for related claims. This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any trading strategy. The information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal, or investment advice and may not be suitable for your specific circumstances. Each investor shall make their own determination of the suitability of an investment of any securities referred to herein and should consult their own tax, legal, investment, or other advisors, to determine such suitability. This report may discuss numerous securities, some of which may not be qualified for sale in certain countries or states therein and may therefore not be offered to investors in such countries or states. This report or any portion hereof may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold or distributed without the written consent of GBM.
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