CHILEAN EQUITY DASHBOARD

Transcription

1 WEEKLY REPORT - CHILEAN EQUITIES October 11th, 2016 CHILEAN EQUITY DASHBOARD Week ended on October 7th Last week, the short-selling stock position on the Santiago stock exchange showed a 36% increase WoW at CLP 33,899Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP 500Mn) increases in Entel, Enersis-AM, CMPC and Copec. The Margin trading stock showed a 1.4% WoW increase at CLP 283,771Mn. In particular, we observed relevant (over CLP 500Mn) increases in plenty of companies such as Parauco, SQM-B, SM-Chile, Ripley, Sonda, LAN and CMPC. Moreover, the largest relevant decreases were Enersis-AM, Entel, CAP, Cencosud and Endesa-AM. Regarding last week net insider movements, we highlight: (i) net investments in Carozzi carried out by Principado de Asturias S.A (controlling shareholder) and (ii) net divestments in Salfacorp executed by Inversiones San Agustin S.A (Management) and by Inversiones Matriz S.A (controlling shareholder). Last week we did not observed movements of Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing +29.9% YTD. 1 Short Selling and Margin Trading weekly trend (CLP Mn) CONTACT Jacinta Correa jacinta.correa@bice.cl Aldo Morales amoralese@bice.cl 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Jan/10 Apr/10 Jul/10 Oct/10 Dec/10 Mar/11 Jun/11 Sep/1 1 Dec/11 Feb/1 2 May/12 Aug/12 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 Jan/14 Mar/14 Jun/14 Sep/1 4 Dec/14 Feb/1 5 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Jan/16 Apr/16 Jul/16 Oct/16 Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones. Short Selling Margin Trading

2 Largest short-selling stock position measured by days of trade are Entel, Sonda and CAP. Largest margin trading positions are Parauco, SQM-B and Colbun Short Selling stock position (CLP Mn) Days of Trade Stock 9/Sep/16 16/Sep/16 23/Sep/16 30/Sep/16 7/Oct/16 ENTEL , SONDA 1,600 1,888 1,773 1,825 1, CAP 2,121 2,056 2,156 2,215 2, ENERSIS-AM 2,400 2,820 3,656 3,783 5, CMPC ,977 2, AGUAS-A 2,016 1,929 2,009 2,076 2, COPEC 1,824 1,854 1,394 1,505 2, CENCOSUD 8,048 6,724 5,748 5,394 5, FORUS ITAUCORP , AESGENER COLBUN BSANTANDER 4,219 1,542 1, , ANDINA-B ECL CHILE 1,365 1,387 1, IAM 1,698 1, VAPORES ENDESA-CH PARAUCO LAN CCU FALABELLA 1,084 1, BCI TOTAL 31,405 29,485 25,693 24,929 33, Margin Trading stock position (CLP Mn) Stock 2/Sep/16 9/Sep/16 16/Sep/16 23/Sep/16 30/Sep/16 7/Oct/16 PARAUCO 38,721 38,743 36,840 36,872 37,167 38,268 SQM-B 17,110 32,862 33,327 33,305 34,159 34,246 COLBUN 32,940 31,835 31,843 31,791 31,775 31,758 ENERSIS-AM 18,432 18,173 18,090 18,094 17,617 17,520 SM-CHILE B 13,205 13,731 13,754 13,873 13,903 14,904 RIPLEY 8,432 9,216 8,544 8,475 8,719 9,094 SECURITY 7,914 7,914 10,174 8,175 8,208 8,193 SONDA 7,742 5,338 5,247 4,794 5,836 6,966 LAN 4,329 4,194 4,802 4,733 4,789 6,740 CMPC 6,749 5,133 5,340 4,750 5,107 6,239 CHILE 5,442 5,457 5,072 5,275 5,147 5,278 COPEC 2,481 3,065 4,552 4,498 4,393 4,555 ENTEL 5,437 5,744 5,871 5,346 4,218 4,183 CAP 4,964 5,846 5,009 5,219 5,912 4,126 FALABELLA 2,737 2,520 4,443 3,773 4,228 3,880 CENCOSUD 8,632 4,095 4,582 3,533 5,893 3,454 LAS CONDES 3,400 3,454 3,456 3,376 3,378 3,378 CCU 2,040 1,989 2,815 2,962 2,656 3,155 MULTIFOODS 2,640 2,664 2,723 2,723 3,037 3,149 ECL 2,030 2,062 2,795 2,931 3,056 3,029 ENDESA-AM 4,655 4,751 4,470 4,481 3,426 2,882 ANTARCHILE 2,483 2,868 2,842 2,842 2,842 2,829 ORO BLANCO 2,072 2,185 2,411 2,206 2,020 2,503 ENDESA-CH 2,897 2,859 3,895 2,828 2,053 2,433 Total 267, , , , , ,771 Increase > CLP 500M Decrease > CLP 500M Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones.

3 Regarding last week net insider movements, we highlight: (i) net investments in Carozzi carried out by Principado de Asturias S.A (controlling shareholder) and (ii) net divestments in Salfacorp executed by Inversiones San Agustin S.A (Management) and by Inversiones Matriz S.A (controlling shareholder). 4 Net Insiders movements (CLP Mn) COMPANY 1W 2W CAROZZI S.A INVERSIONES AGRICOLAS Y COMERCIALES S.A. 1 1 S.A.C.I. FALABELLA 0 30 MULTIEXPORT FOODS S.A. 0 5 SCOTIABANK CHILE 0 0 AGUAS ANDINAS S.A. 0 0 INGEVEC S.A MARBELLA COUNTRY CLUB S.A SOCOVESA S.A COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A HORTIFRUT S.A. 0-1,685 SALFACORP S.A COMPANY 1M 2M EMPRESAS LA POLAR S.A. 10,361 10,361 RIPLEY CORP S.A. 2,090 2,090 DETROIT CHILE S.A DUNCAN FOX S.A SOCIEDAD PUNTA DEL COBRE S.A S.A.C.I. FALABELLA 30-18,192 SOCOVESA S.A COMPAÑIA DE INVERSIONES LA ESPAÑOLA S.A CENCOSUD S.A CHILECTRA S.A SALFACORP S.A ,819 HORTIFRUT S.A. -1,685-1,685 Increase > CLP 500M Decrease > CLP 500M Source: Santiago stock exchange, BICE Inversiones. Last week we did not observed movements of Chilean ETF quotes, while accruing +29.9% YTD. 5 Creation/Destruction ETF quotes per country (% AUM) AUM 5d 1m 3m 6m YTD 1Y Chile % -3.4% 0.2% -13.9% 29.9% 28.6% -6.5% -4.3% Brasil 4, % 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 22.5% 32.5% -13.7% 7.3% Colombia % 1.1% 3.4% 0.4% 14.4% 21.4% 23.2% -3.4% México 1, % -7.8% 6.6% -15.0% -13.9% -10.4% -26.1% -1.3% Perú % -1.6% -3.6% -11.3% 14.5% 8.8% -20.3% -15.1% World 5, % 0.0% -9.7% -8.4% -20.3% -19.7% 31.1% 22.1% EM 31, % 0.0% 20.5% 12.7% 28.1% 30.7% -19.3% -14.2% Latam % 6.3% 15.3% 14.7% 28.1% 50.1% -7.2% -42.9% USA 196, % -1.7% 3.7% 5.3% 2.4% 5.5% 13.7% 9.5% Europe 2, % 0.0% -8.9% -11.4% -12.4% -10.4% 11.6% 34.7% Asia (ex Japan) 3, % 5.8% 23.2% 17.5% 7.5% 8.5% 6.6% 20.6% Japan 14, % 0.1% -5.0% -16.1% -34.7% -34.1% 8.1% 50.4% China 3, % 0.0% 0.0% -10.2% -38.3% -41.8% 10.8% -7.4% Money Market 3, % 6.3% -6.0% -0.9% 13.6% -16.6% 13.0% 2.3% Develop Gov. 8, % -3.6% -11.6% -10.0% 1.5% -15.2% 42.7% -7.1% Inv. Grade 32, % 2.1% 3.3% 9.6% 23.8% 30.5% 12.9% -47.2% High Yield 17, % 11.5% 3.3% 20.8% 14.3% 25.7% -1.4% -5.9% EM Corp Debt 4, % 7.2% 17.3% 23.0% 35.9% 42.8% 19.2% -38.5% Inf. Linked % -8.6% -27.3% -39.4% -48.2% -42.7% -96.1% -5.3% Source: BICE Inversiones. 3

4 9 Appendix 2. Valuation & Recommendation Source: BICE Inversiones Price 16E T.P. Target Price Mkt. Cap (MMUS$) % IPSA ADTV (MMUS$) EV/EBITDA E 2017E E 2017E Consumer Staples ,2% 6,1 9,6x 9,4x 8,7x 21,4x 19,9x 18,4x Andina NEUTRAL ,4% 1,0 8,2x 8,9x 8,0x 21,8x 23,5x 21,2x CCU NEUTRAL ,0% 3,2 11,3x 9,6x 8,8x 24,0x 19,0x 18,1x Concha y Toro BUY ,3% 1,5 11,2x 9,9x 9,9x 15,9x 14,2x 13,1x Embonor-B BUY ,4% 0,4 7,5x 9,6x 9,0x 18,6x 23,4x 20,7x Electric Utilities ,5% 14,2 1,6x 6,4x 6,1x 14,2x 9,3x 10,7x Enersis Americas BUY ,5% 3,3-4,8x 4,6x 17,7x 8,8x 10,7x Enersis Chile NEUTRAL ,8% 3,3-7,6x 5,8x 0,0x 12,6x 10,9x Endesa Chile BUY ,0% 2,7-7,2x 7,1x 32,7x 7,0x 9,9x Endesa Americas BUY ,4% 1,5-5,9x 5,1x 0,0x 13,3x 8,9x E-CL (1) NEUTRAL ,5% 1,9 7,2x 7,8x 9,7x 16,6x 6,1x 26,8x AESGener (1) NEUTRAL ,3% 1,7 11,1x 9,6x 10,0x 15,2x 13,1x 10,8x Industrial ,6% 0,0 7,1x 7,3x 6,6x 10,2x 11,9x 10,8x SK NEUTRAL ,6% 0,0 7,1x 7,3x 6,6x 10,2x 11,9x 10,8x Commodities ,0% 6,9 10,0x 10,3x 10,2x 31,7x 26,8x 24,3x CAP SELL 871 0,6% 2,8 5,4x 8,4x 10,6x 182x -122x -41x Soquimich NEUTRAL ,4% 4,2 11,9x 11,0x 10,0x 30,1x 23,3x 20,4x Retail ,9% 33,1 13,9x 14,3x 12,3x 21,8x 19,0x 16,1x Cencosud BUY ,5% 15,2 9,4x 10,4x 8,9x 17,3x 15,6x 13,2x Falabella BUY ,2% 14,2 16,7x 16,3x 14,1x 22,2x 21,4x 17,9x Parauco BUY ,1% 1,9 16,5x 19,6x 16,0x 15,3x 18,7x 17,1x Ripley NEUTRAL ,8% 1,3 14,7x 15,8x 12,9x -12,4x 15,4x 13,3x Forus NEUTRAL 983 0,5% 0,6 9,3x 13,3x 12,2x 13,7x 20,9x 19,7x Sanitary ,0% 3,1 11,1x 12,2x 12,1x 16,7x 18,2x 17,3x Aguas-A BUY ,8% 2,4 11,1x 12,2x 12,1x 16,7x 18,2x 17,3x IAM BUY ,2% 0, Healthcare ,6% 0,7 9,9x 8,4x 9,3x 11,3x 4,0x 9,4x ILC BUY ,6% 0, ,0x 2,5x 8,0x Habitat NEUTRAL ,0% 0,1 8,9x 7,9x 7,8x 12,8x 11,4x 11,4x Telecom & IT ,5% 1,3 8,7x 8,1x 7,2x 22,5x 18,6x 15,7x Sonda BUY ,5% 1,3 8,7x 8,1x 7,2x 22,5x 18,6x 15,7x Transportation ,4% 8,5 9,8x 9,6x 8,7x -23,1x 23,0x 21,3x LATAM NEUTRAL ,7% 8,2 10,0x 9,7x 8,8x - 26,2x 23,9x SMSAAM BUY 800 0,7% 0,3 7,2x 8,5x 8,4x 12,0x 13,6x 13,0x Banks ,9% 11, ,6x 14,3x 13,2x Chile 74 75,9 NEUTRAL ,6% 3, ,2x 12,7x 11,8x SM Chile-B NEUTRAL ,2% 0, BSantander 34,4 34,7 NEUTRAL ,1% 3, ,3x 13,1x 12,1x BCI BUY ,6% 2, ,0x 10,5x 9,8x Itaucorp 5,7 6,5 NEUTRAL ,4% 2, ,7x 13,2x 8,3x BI Sample ,7% 85,6 8,2x 9,7x 9,1x 18,8x 14,0x 14,2x P/E 4

5 SALES TEAM Felipe Figueroa E. Equity Sales and Trading Jacinto Laso P. Equity Sales and Trading Andrés De la Cerda G. Fixed Income and Currency RESEARCH TEAM Agustín Álvarez M. Head of Research Aldo Morales E. Head of Equity Research Sebastián Carvallo I. Equity Research Analyst Jacinta Correa A. Equity Research Analyst Sebastián Senzacqua B. Chief Economist Juan Pablo Castillo C. Senior Strategy Analyst Contact Follow Download Visit App BICE Inversiones biceinversiones.cl 5

6 This report has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing information to customers of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. This report is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell stocks, bonds or other instruments mentioned in it. This information and where it is based has been obtained from public information sources on our best knowledge and that according to our belief seems reliable. However, this does not guarantee that they are accurate or complete. The forecasts and estimates presented in this report have been prepared with the best information and tools available, but this does not guarantee that they will be fulfilled. All opinions and expressions contained in this report may be modified at any time without notice. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and any company or person related to it and its controlling shareholders may at any time have short and long term investments in any of the instruments mentioned in this report or related with companies or markets mentioned and can buy or sell those same instruments. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. could eventually recommend purchases and / or sales of shares for trading positions. Such actions could be incorporated into other recommended portfolios. The projections and estimates presented in this report should not be the sole basis for the adoption of an appropriate investment decision and each investor must make its own assessment based on their personal situation, investment strategy, risk tolerance, tax situation, etc. The result of any financial transaction carried out with the support of this report is the sole responsibility of the person who performs it. Foreign securities and issuers that can be referenced in this report, and are not currently registered in the Securities Registry by the Chilean Superintendence of Securities and Insurance, are not applicable laws and regulations governing domestic stock market, therefore is the sole responsibility of investors to get their own information regarding such securities and foreign issuers before making any investment decision. The frequency of the publication of the reports, if any, is at the discretion of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. It is not allowed to quote or reproduce in whole or in part this report without the express permission of BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the Research Department holds, directly or indirectly, investments in the issuer or issuers analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, none of the members of the Research Department holds, directly or indirectly, links to the issuer analyzed in it. The members of the Research Department expressly declare that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and members of the Research Department expressly declare that there is no commercial relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report. BICE Inversiones Corredores de Bolsa S.A. and / or any company or person associated with it, may at any time have a position in any of the financial instruments mentioned in these reports and may buy or sell those same instruments, in which case they should be guided by the Manual for share transactions and other securities by staff and BICECORP SA and its subsidiaries and is available in At the date of publication of this report, the analyst holds, directly or indirectly, investments in the issuer or issuers analyzed in it. At the date of publication of this report, the analyst Mr. holds, directly or indirectly, with related links to the issuer analyzed in it. BICE Inversiones S.A. Corredores de Bolsa states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report. Mr. analyst states that currently maintains a business relationship with the issuer analyzed in this report. 6