Comments on Sir Christopher Pissarides: Structural Perspectives on European Employment: The Role of Innovation and Growth. May 23, 2015.
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1 Comments on Sir Christopher Pissarides: Structural Perspectives on European Employment: The Role of Innovation and Growth May 23, 2015 John Fernald* Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco * Views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or anyone else associated with the Federal Reserve System.
2 Summary: Innovation and structural change matter Innovation is crucial for raising living standards Structural change important for getting benefits of innovation Innovation raises employment but outside the innovating sector Lots of sensible policy recommendations follow Education/skills, public and private investments in physical capital and R&D More flexible labor and product markets
3 My main points Innovation has both a global and a local dimension Whatever happens, there will be structural change Future pace of innovation highly uncertain 3
4 Innovation has both a global and a local dimension 4
5 The U.S. productivity frontier is a benchmark 5
6 U.S. productivity growth slowed prior to Great Recession
7 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
8 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
9 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
10 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
11 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
12 IT-related innovation in U.S. slowed Total factor productivity by industry subgroup Annual percent change Not ITintensive Note: Bars sum to private business TFP. IT intensity measured as payments for IT capital as share of value added. Percent IT-intensive IT producing Bubble sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fernald (2014a). Bubble sectors are construction, real estate, finance, mining, and agriculture. 0
13 Why not Continental Europe? Reorganization more difficult 13
14 Structural change will happen 14
15 Similar structural change across regions Source: EUKLEMS. Euro area is "Euroex" aggregate: AUT, BEL, ESP, FIN, FRA, GER, ITA and NLD. Industries cover the non-mining, non-agricultural economy 15
16 Convergence: Reforms have been happening Greater Improvement Greater regulation 16
17 Future innovation highly uncertain 17
18 Robots, driverless cars, and artificial intelligence
19 China, India, etc. closer to research frontier R&D expenditures As a percent of GDP Percent 5 Korea Japan U.S "Europe" Canada China Source: OECD. "Europe" is an unweighted average of France, Germany, and U.K. 0 19
20 Conclusion: Thought-provoking paper Innovation has a global and local dimension Frontier growth slowed prior to the Great Recesssion Uncertainty about the future pace is high Structural change is going to happen reforms are necessary to be ready, and gain the benefits
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