Kazakhstan. Competitive Profile

Transcription

1 Kazakhstan Competitive Profile Consulting Address in Armenia: 2/1 Melik-Adamyan, Yerevan 0010, Republic of Armenia tel.: +374 (10) Address in Russia: 5 Orlikov lane, bld 2, Moscow , Russian Federation tel.: +7 (495) info@evconsulting.com url:

2 table of contents general information economy competitiveness performance sectoral performance EV Consulting profile

3 General Information fast facts geography & demography

4 general information fast facts Fast Facts Kazakhstan s Stand in International Rankings Full name The Republic of Kazakhstan Population 17.2 million (2013) Capital Astana Area 2.7 million sq km Ease of Doing Business (The World Bank) Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation) 50 (Rank, 2014, out of 189 countries) 67 (Rank, 2014, out of 178 countries) Major languages Kazakh (state language), Russian Major religion Muslim (70.2% of the population), 26.2% Christian Life expectancy Currency Exchange rate Main exports 66 years (men), 75 years (women) Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) Average for 2013: KZT/USD As of August 5, 2014: KZT/USD GDP, current USD $224,4 billion (2013) GDP per capita, PPP, current international $ Oil and oil products, ferrous metals, chemicals, grain, wool, meat, cool. $23,206 (World Bank,2013) Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum) Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International) Human Development Index (UNDP) Sovereign Country Ratings 50 (Rank, , out of 148 countries) 140 (Rank, 2013, out of 175 countries) 70 (Rank, 2013, out of 187) Moody s Baa2 (September 9, 2014) Fitch (country ceiling) BBB+ (May 9, 2014) 4

5 general information geography and demography Geography Ninth biggest country in the world with a territory of 2,727,300 sq.km. World s largest landlocked country. Natural Resources Enormous fossil fuel reserves and plentiful supplies of other minerals and metals, such as uranium, copper, and zinc. As of the end of 2012*: - 1.8% of world oil reserves; - 0.7% of world gas reserves; - 3.9% of world coal reserves. Industrial sector primarily focused on the extraction and processing of these natural resources. Demography 17.2 million population as of the end of Almaty - the largest city with a population of 1.5 million. The second largest city of Kazakhstan is Astana - the capital city with population. Labour Force Total labour force 9.0 million, with 5.3% unemployment rate in High rate of literacy (100%) Primary education - 106% gross enrolment rate Secondary education - 98% gross enrolment rate Tertiary education - 45% gross enrolment rate

6 Economy economic growth economy structure inflation and foreign currencies public sector performance external sector foreign trade partners

7 economy economic growth GDP Growth (annual %) 15 GDP per Capita, PPP (current international $, 2013) and CAGR (constant 2005 $, ) 11.2% 10 8% 5 6.6% 6% 0 3.7% ,120 23,206 17,615 14,001 5, Russia Kazakhstan Belarus Turkmenistan Uzbekistan GDP per capita, PPP (current in $ 2013) CAGR (constant 2005 $, ) Source: National Statistical Offices Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank Kazakhstan has had recorded impressive GDP growth rates compared to neighboring and several CIS countries in the beginning of the last decade. In 2009 GDP growth rate dropped nearly by 8% affected by global financial crisis. Since then recovery trends have been recorded. Key drivers of the growth The economic growth has been largely supported by the oil sector which constitutes a significant portion of GDP. Kazakhstan is ranked quite favorably in the region by the level of GDP per capita PPP. According to the World Bank classification by income level, Kazakhstan is classified in the group of upper middle income countries by its 2013 GDP volume. In the period of Kazakhstan s GDP per capita PPP has showed real increase at 6.6% CAGR. Restoring oil prices after global economic crisis has improved post crisis growth dynamics for the country. 7

8 economy economy structure GDP by Sectors of Economy, 2013 Change in GDP Structure 12% 19% 17% 12% 12% 16% 14% 12% 11% 14% 9% 15% 11% 7% 9% 6% 6% 5% 8% 8% 5% 23% 20% 31% Mining Retail Manufacturing Real estate Transport and logistics Construction Agriculture Other Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Mining and retail are the largest sectors of economy, which together are responsible for nearly one-third of the output. Manufacturing, real estate services and transportation together comprise about 30% of the GDP. The recent trends in Kazakhstan s GDP structure are: Continuous increase of the retail sector s share Expanding share of mining industry in GDP. Manufacturing and real estate sectors show the opposite trend with share of each in GDP decreased by more than 5 percentage points during the last decade. 8

9 economy inflation and foreign currencies Inflation, , in % 20 Dynamics of Gross International Reserves and Exchange Rate Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Source: National Statistical Offices Russian Federation Uzbekistan Total reserves (including gold, current bln USD) Official exchange rate (Tenge/USD) Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan The inflation rates have been traditionally lower in Kazakhstan than in the compared countries. However, it has been showing stable tendency towards growing since 2005 peaking at the level of 17% in In 2009 prices dipped by 10 percentage points, which was followed by fluctuating dynamics highly correlated with the inflation in Russian Federation. The volume of gross international reserves has increased drastically since 2004 reaching its maximum in Since then a downward pattern has been observed. 9

10 economy public sector performance Dynamics of Public Finance Dynamics of External Public Debt 0.6% 0.8% -0.3% % % % % -2.1% -2.9% -2.1% Expenditures (billion $) Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Growing budget revenues allowed to increase public spending in the recent years as well. Budget deficit level is stable and remains within the corridor of 2-3% of GDP since Main targets of public spending are social security and social aid (20%), education (19%), public health service (12%), transport and communications (7%) and defence industry (5%). Since 2003 Kazakhstan s external public debt has considerably decreased up until 2008 when the trend reversed due to global economic crisis. However, the level of external public debt share in GDP is still modest. Kazakhstan is considered as less indebted country according to the WB classification. 10

11 economy external sector Foreign Trade, in billion USD FDI Inflow, in million USD ,157 2,546 7,611 11,973 16,819 14,276 7,456 13,760 13,785 9, Export Import Foreign direct investment, net inflows (million US$) Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Continuously increasing export and import volumes were significantly cut down in 2009 as a result of global economic crisis. The decline was the consequence of falling prices of oil and mining products on global markets. The sector of foreign trade began to revive already in 2010 with positive growth trend of both import and export volumes. 11 Kazakhstan has attracted over 80% of all foreign direct investment (FDI) that went into Central Asia (Kazakhstan s GDP comprised 66% of the total in Central Asia region in 2013). Major foreign investors in Kazakhstan s economy are Netherlands 28%, USA 10%, China 9% and Switzerland 8%. The main investment targets are: - Mining and quarrying 29% - Transport and logistics 24% - Manufacturing 11% - Real estate 9%

12 economy foreign trade partners Export Structure by Partners and Commodities, 2013 Import Structure by Partners and Commodities, 2013 Export by Countries Export by Commodities Mineral fuels, oils Iron, steel Inorganic chemicals Copper Ores, slag, ash Cereals Precious stones, metals Other Austria Switzerland France Russian Federation Netherlands China Italy Other 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 7% 18% 17% 12% 7% 6% 5% 4% 29% 76% Import by Countries Import by Commodities Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery Mineral fuels, oils Vehicles Articles of iron or steel Electronic equipment Pharmaceuticals Plastics Other Russian Federation China Germany USA Ukraine Rep. of Korea Japan Other 15% 11% 9% 9% 8% 3% 3% 17% 6% 5% 5% 3% 2% 27% 36% 42% Source: UN Comtrade Database Source: UN Comtrade Database Mineral products highly dominate in Kazakhstan s export structure with over 75% of share. Other popular export commodities are metals, inorganic chemicals, ores and copper. About half of the finished goods consumed within Kazakhstan are imported. The largest suppliers are Russia, China, Germany and USA. Machinery and equipment represent a significant portion of European imports. 12

13 Competitiveness Performance competitiveness ranking comparative economic performance economy diversification export diversification resource-intensity of exports

14 competitiveness performance competitiveness ranking GDP dynamics and Global competitiveness rankings for Kazakhstan among among among among among among among among 148 among GDP (constant bln 2005 USD) Source: World Economic Forum; WB WDI GCI rank The Competitiveness Performance of Kazakhstan by Competitiveness Pillars Pillar Rank Change (points) Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic stability Health and primary education Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market sophistication Technological readiness Market size Business sophistication Innovation According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2014/15 Kazakhstan is ranked 50th by its competitive performance among 144 countries. Kazakhstan s competitiveness stance has notably deteriorated while the country enjoyed economic growth even during the economic crisis. Though, the country has significantly improved competitiveness position in recent years reaching its maximum ever recorded. According to Global Competitiveness Report Kazakhstan is the top performer in terms of improving its global competitiveness. The country s key competitive advantages are effective labor market regulations and macroeconomic stability. On the contrary, the level of Kazakhstan s competitiveness by the indicators of financial market s and business sophistication, health and primary education, innovation are comparably low. 14

15 competitiveness performance Export Diversification Diversification in Exports/Imports in Benchmark Regions, ) Czech Rep. Bulgaria Belarus Lithuania Estonia Cyprus Romania Uzbekistan Slovakia Israel Georgia Slovenia Latvia Armenia Bosnia Herzegovina Egypt Albania Turkmenistan Note: Diversification is calculated as the square root of normalized Herfindahl index - 1 Ss2 1/n 1 1/n, where s is the share of the given sector/commodity group in total, n is the number of sectors. Import and export diversification is calculated based on 21 commodity groups. Source: WB, WDI-Online; UN Comtrade; National Statistical Offices of Benchmark Countries -1) Kazakhstan Conditioned by the high concentration of economic activities in a few sectors, the export and import bases are also very narrow in the country. By the indicators of export and import diversification Kazakhstan is among the outsiders in the list of benchmark countries. 15

16 competitiveness performance Resource-intensity of Exports Resource-Intensity of Merchandise Exports, 2013 Share of resource-intensive exports in total exports, 2013 Egypt 90% Turkmenistan 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Armenia Kazakhstan Albania Georgia Israel Cyprus Latvia 10% Lithuania Bulgaria Bosnia HerzegovinaCzech Rep. Belarus Slovakia Romania 0% Slovenia -1.5%- 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% Change of share of resource-intensive exports in total exports, compared to 2012 Uzbekistan Source: UN Comtrade; National Statistical Offices of benchmark countries The highly concentrated exports are dominated by natural resources and other resource-based commodities. Exports of Kazakhstan, Russia, Albania and Armenia are the most resource intensive in the observed region. Kazakhstan s export resource-intensity has the tendency to escalate in the recent years. 16

17 Sectoral Performance industry trade communications and transport agriculture financial sector

18 sectoral performance industry Industrial output in Kazakhstan, billion USD Mining industry output, billion USD, 2013 Manufacturing industry output, billion USD, 2013 Oil and gas mining 59 Metallurgy Food products 6 12 Metal ore mining 5 Machinery 6 Cokes and products based on 5 Technical services for mining 4 5 Coal and lignite mining 1 Other non-metal mineral Beverages 1 1 Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Key issues of the sector Source: Bulletin 2012, Expert Kazakhstan Rating Agency 18 Prevalent corruption practices Poor accounting and audit practices High domestic prices for exportoriented products Key players Sales, mln USD, 2012 Key attractiveness of the sector Abundant natural resources Low production costs Extensive opportunities in diversification and promoting new processing sectors Change in sales 2012/11 Other mining sectors Ranking in 200 largest companies Tengischevroil 23,091-7% 2 Karachaganak Petroleum Operating 8,054 14% 3 Eurasian Natural Resources 6,320-17% Corporation 4 CNPC Aktobemunaigas 4,689 1% 5 Mangistaumunaigaz 4,267 7% 6 1 Chemicals Other The independent Kazakhstan, as many post-soviet countries found itself in a deep economic recession after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Only within 5 years from 1990 to 1995 the industrial output decreased by over 50%. Signs of recovery were noticeable only at the end of 1990s. The increasing interest of international investors led to extensive FDI especially in mining industry. The increasing presence of foreign capital supported the development of sophisticated business practices in the sector and multiplied export opportunities. Sector s post crisis growth was driven by reviving oil prices after global economic crisis. 1 1

19 sectoral performance trade Retail turnover Most tradable consumer goods, mln USD, % 30% 30,633 33,096 23% 25% 20% 22% 20,357 21,697 16% 17,015 17,356 8% 26,402 13,784 8,963 10,592-15% Retail trade, mln USD Annual growth rate, % Food products Non-food products Clothes Passenger cars Electric home appliances Computer software Meat Dairy and eggs Beverages, including alcoholoc Fruits and vegetables 1, ,488 1,230 1, ,979 1,965 Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Key issues of the sector Decreasing labor productivity Slow progress in the expansion of export markets Increasing tariffs on imports leading to low profitability of importing companies Key players Sales, mln USD, 2012 Key attractiveness of the sector Favorable geographic location for international trade Increasing income levels boosting local demand Rapidly expanding retail chains and opportunities to attract international brands Change in sales 2012/11 Ranking in 200 largest companies Helios 805-1% 22 Neo Asia % 29 Samsung electronics Kz % 37 Sinooil % 38 Arena S % 42 Source: Bulletin 2012, Expert Kazakhstan Rating Agency Retail is one of the most stable sectors in Kazakhstan s economy. The sector has grown by an average annual growth rate of about 16% within the period of This is one of the few sectors which maintained although small but positive growth even in the period of the global economic crisis. Non-food products dominate in the consumption basket of Kazakhstan s population. The structure of retail consumption by the shares of food and non-food remained quite stable over the time. Modern supermarket chains and retail networks rapidly expand their market share. The sector is expected to see the entry of well-known international chains and consolidation of the market. 19

20 sectoral performance Construction and Real Estate Construction volume and real estate services, billion USD Residential Construction, mln sq.m Construction volume Real estate activities Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Key issues of the sector Extensive shadow sector, conditioned by a great number of self-employed persons Tax evasion due to the prevalence of unregistered construction and unregistered employees Insufficient production of construction materials and high dependence on imported materials Key players Sales, mln USD, 2012 Key attractiveness of the sector Lucrative development prospects driven by the need for large scale infrastructure and urban development projects Accelerating demand for commercial property Change in sales 2012/11 Ranking in 200 largest companies Bazis % 91 Sembol % 95 Kazgerstroy % 116 After the steep decline in the post-independence period the construction sector has been reviving in Kazakhstan since The sector s further development was largely fuelled by state investments and urban development projects - particularly large-scale new construction in the new capital city Astana. The construction of residential spaces continuously decreased in the decade of The contraction accounted for 80% of the output. The residential construction started to revive with 25% average annual growth rate. The financial crisis did not affect the sector development significantly. Source: Bulletin 2012, Expert Kazakhstan Rating Agency 20

21 sectoral performance agriculture Agriculture output, billion USD Horticulture Livestock Source: Agency of Statistics, Republic of Kazakhstan Key issues of the sector Fragmentation lack of vertically integrated agro-complexes Limited financial resources Low usage of advanced technologies for sophistication of the processes Need of upgrade of physical infrastructure High unemployment in the sector leading to high urbanization rates Key players Sales, mln USD, 2012 Key attractiveness of the sector Highly productive land resources Immense local consumption market Low production costs Change in sales 2012/11 Ranking in 200 largest companies APK-Invest 1,023 72% 19 Holding Kazexportastyk % 46 Holding Ivolga % 50 Agrofirm Kazexportastyk % 147 Source: Bulletin 2012, Expert Kazakhstan Rating Agency With decreasing share in GDP agriculture still remains the largest employer of the country. About one-quarter of the labor force is working in the sector. Kazakhstan s agriculture sector is distinguished by its high level of productivity both in the Central Asian region and on the global scale. Horticulture accounts for the majority of the agriculture output. This sector showed strong growth dynamics not only recovering but also exceeding production levels before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Grain sector with its major cultivation being wheat is the largest agricultural sector in Kazakhstan. The growth of the agricultural sector was mainly driven by favorable climate and large harvest volumes due to which Kazakhstan became one of the biggest exporters of grain in the world. Meat and wool production are the next biggest agricultural subsectors. The sector has undergone a number of stages of reforms. The slow progress in privatization hindered the rapid development of smallscale farms. 21

22 sectoral performance Financial Services Volume of short-term and long-term loans, billion USD Insurance premiums, mln USD Pension funds 28% 28% 24% 24% % 25% 22% % 21% 20% Short-term loans Long-term loans Source: National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Obligatory Insurance Voluntary property Insurance Voluntary personal Insurance Pensional funds, billion USD Investment profit, margin, % Key issues of the sector 22 High burden of external debts by commercial banks Need for restructuring in the banking sector Underdeveloped stock market Key players Sales, mln USD, 2012 Key attractiveness of the sector Rapidly expanding credit markets Increasing demand towards more sophisticated financial products Expected upheal in the stock market Change in sales 2012/11 Ranking in 200 largest companies Kazcommercebank 1,741-4% 12 National Bank of Kazakhstan 1,422 2% 15 Kaspi Bank % 24 Bank CenterCredit % 28 Eurasian financial company % 32 Source: Bulletin 2012, Expert Kazakhstan Rating Agency Reforms in the regulatory field of Kazakhstan s banking sector, initiated by the National bank in 1995 significantly supported the sector s further development. Stringent regulations led to decrease in number of operating commercial banks from 130 in 1995 to 38 in Backed with economic revival the volume of loans was increasing at accelerated rates until In the period the growth in the volume of short-term loans provided by commercial banks considerably slowed down affected by the financial crisis. In 2011 the volume of loans grew rapidly and the trend continues remaining positive. Loan products are mostly demanded by companies in industrial, construction and retails sectors. The insurance sector, mainly driven by voluntary property insurance, had a deep contraction in the volume of turnover in The volume of insurance premiums decreased twice only in one year after However, since 2011 recovery trend is recorded. In 2012 the volume of insurance premiums has surpassed the pre-crisis level. Investment profit margins in pension funds fluctuate in the range of 20-28%.

23 EV Consulting Profile service lines expertise advisory practice leaders

24 EV Consulting service lines STRATEGY ADVISORY PUBLIC POLICY & DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY INVESTMENT ADVISORY MARKETING ADVISORY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT ORGANIZATION DESIGN Designing mid to long-term strategies; comprehensive competitive analysis; crafting and installing strategy execution tools based on balanced scorecards; linking strategy to operations through operational dashboards Helping public sector organizations effectively design, implement and monitor sector development strategies and large scale, high impact projects. Sector strategies, impact analysis, complex studies, development support, etc. Investment strategy formulation, investment proposals, business plans and feasibility studies, M&A advice; business valuation; capital attraction; deal structuring and negotiation support Market studies and analysis by using quantitative and qualitative research tools (customer segmentation, customer loyalty and satisfaction assessment, brand health tracking etc.); commercial due diligence; development of market entry and expansion strategies etc. Design and install performance measurement systems; improve planning, budgeting and forecasting systems; streamline and improve finance and marketing function; improve sales force organization, compensation schemes, customer service standards; operational dashboards Designing corporate centers or holding structures for diversified businesses; modeling effective organization structures best suited to company strategies; developing organization culture and motivation metrics; staffing and competence needs assessments 24

25 EV Consulting expertise Industry expertise Information Technologies Mobile telecommunications Internet services Science and R&D Education Engineering services Tourism & Travel Construction materials Real estate and construction Alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages Confectionary and chocolate Agriculture, in particular pig farming, poultry, feed production Dairy and ice cream Health care and pharmaceuticals Logistics Retail Banking Key highlights With offices in Moscow and Yerevan, EV Consulting has accomplished over 200 consulting and research projects in a broad range of sectors. Development of corporate and business level strategies, introduction Balanced Scorecards, performance management systems, performance improvement programs. Development of over 80 investment plans and memorandums, as a result of which more than 60 mln USD were attracted in a form of equity or debt financing. Feasibility assessment and commercial due diligence of a number of high profile investment projects such as establishment of $500m copper refinery, $80m accelerator, $100m photovoltaic production, etc. EV Consulting has worked with major international financial institutions such as EBRD, World Bank, IFC, Black Sea Trade and Development Bank, etc. EV has been at the forefront of introducing modern management tools in Russia, Armenia and other CIS countries. With close to 90% return rate of its customers EV has become a long-term consulting partner of many local and international companies. EV Consulting s research arm EV Research Center partners with World Economic Forum and Harvard Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness. Mining 25