Gross Domestic Product: June 2009 quarter

Transcription

1 Embargoed until 10:45am 23 September 2009 Highlights Gross domestic product (GDP): Economic activity was up 0.1 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following five quarters of contraction. Activity in the primary industries increased 1.5 percent, while activity in goods-producing industries contracted 0.5 percent. Gross domestic product contracted 1.8 percent for the year ended June On the expenditure measure of GDP: Household consumption expenditure was up 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Total inventories were run down $1.1 billion. Real gross national disposable income decreased 1.3 percent for the year ended June Geoff Basc 23 September 2009 Government Statistician ISSN

2 Commentary All references to quarterly movements are to seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices unless otherwise stated. Economic activity increases Economic activity increased 0.1 percent in the June 2009 quarter, the first quarterly increase in gross domestic product (GDP) since the December 2007 quarter. Because this movement is so close to zero, no significant conclusions can be drawn that this is a turning point. Economic activity for the year ended June 2009 contracted 1.8 percent compared with 2.5 percent growth for the year ended June This is the largest annual contraction in economic activity since the series began in June Activity in primary industries increased 1.5 percent this quarter. This increase was mainly driven by the fishing, forestry, mining industry (up 4.0 percent). Activity in goods-producing industries decreased 0.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter, the sixth quarterly contraction. The decrease was driven by manufacturing (down 1.3 percent) construction activity (down 1.9 percent). A 5.9 percent increase in electricity, gas water partly offset these decreases. Service industries were flat this quarter. Increases in real estate business (up 1.5 percent) communications (up 1.7 percent) were offset by declines in wholesale trade (down 2.1 percent), transport storage (down 3.3 percent), government administration defence (down 0.4 percent). The expenditure-based measure of GDP, released concurrently with the productionbased measure, was up 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter. 2

3 Household consumption expenditure increased 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Services non-durable goods both increased, up 0.6 percent 0.8 percent, respectively. Expenditure on durable items decreased (down 0.9 percent). In the year ended June 2009, household consumption expenditure decreased 1.1 percent. Gross fixed capital formation, which measures investment in fixed assets, was up 0.1 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Business investment increased 1.3 percent, mainly due to a 6.3 percent rise in intangibles a 2.9 percent rise in other construction. Total exports volumes increased 4.7 percent in the June 2009 quarter, mainly driven by an increase in exports of dairy products (up 20.9 percent). Total import volumes were down 3.8 percent, with intermediate goods (down 6.1 percent), capital goods (down 3.5 percent) making the largest contributions. Gross domestic product by industry Primary industries Primary industry activity increased 1.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter following a 0.6 percent increase in the March 2009 quarter. Forestry logging (up 8.0 percent) was the main driver of the increase in primary industry activity this quarter. The increase in forestry logging activity is related to an increase in exports of logs to the People's Republic of China. On the expenditure side of GDP, exports of wood paper products were up 6.9 percent. Mining was up 2.3 percent this quarter, mainly due to increased oil extraction. The Maari oil field, which commenced production in the March quarter, reached full production in the June 2009 quarter. Agriculture also increased, up 0.5 percent this quarter. For the year ended June 2009, activity in primary industries decreased 0.9 percent. 3

4 Goods-producing industries Activity in goods-producing industries decreased 0.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter, the sixth consecutive quarterly decrease. Manufacturing was the main contributor to the decrease. Manufacturing activity declined 1.3 percent this quarter. The largest declines within manufacturing came from: machinery equipment manufacturing (down 7.3 percent), non-metallic mineral manufacturing (down 11.7 percent), food, beverage tobacco manufacturing (down 1.5 percent). An increase in petroleum, chemicals, plastics rubber manufacturing partly offset these decreases. Electricity, gas water increased 5.9 percent this quarter, mainly due to electricity generation. The dem for electricity was high due to a colder than usual winter. High lake levels meant that more dem was met through hydro-electricity generation. 4

5 Construction activity decreased 1.9 percent in the June 2009 quarter following a 0.4 percent increase in the March 2009 quarter. The decrease in construction activity was mainly due to declines in construction trade (down 3.6 percent) residential building construction (down 6.2 percent). Construction trade measures the (ie sub-contractors) required for residential non-residential building projects, is the largest component of construction activity. Non-building construction was up 1.9 percent this quarter, driven by large infrastructure projects. For the year ended June 2009, activity in goods-producing industries decreased 7.6 percent. This is the largest annual decline since the series began in June Goodsproducing industries were down 9.9 percent in the June 2009 quarter compared with the June 2008 quarter. Service industries Activity in the service industries was flat in the June 2009 quarter following a similar movement in the March 2009 quarter. In the service industries, finance, insurance business (up 0.6 percent) had the largest increase this quarter. Within this industry, real estate business increased 1.5 percent, while finance insurance declined 0.9 percent. The increase in real estate business was driven by increased house sales more hours worked in the business industries. Communication, which includes telecommunication postal, was up 1.7 percent this quarter. 5

6 Other service industries that declined this quarter were wholesale trade (down 2.1 percent) transport storage (down 3.3 percent). General government administration defence had its largest decline since the December 2002 quarter, down 0.4 percent this quarter. The main driver of this decrease was central government administration defence (down 1.8 percent), while local government was up. Within central government, the administration, defence, public order safety industries all declined. For the year ended June 2009, service industries were up 0.6 percent compared with growth of 3.2 percent for year ended June Unallocated items Unallocated items include taxes items that are not allocated to any specific industry. These items are: the financial service charge, the seasonal adjustment balancing item, taxes that are levied on the purchaser not the producer (such as GST import duties). Unallocated items were up 3.5 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Expenditure on gross domestic product Expenditure on GDP increased 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter. For the year ended June 2009, expenditure on GDP decreased 1.2 percent. While the production- expenditure-based measures are both official series, the production-based measure has historically shown less volatility is the preferred series for quarter-on-quarter changes. Households Household final consumption expenditure increased 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter, the first increase in household spending since the December 2007 quarter. For the year ended June 2009, household consumption expenditure fell 1.1 percent. Household consumption expenditure measures the volume of spending by New Zeal-resident households on goods. 6

7 Household expenditure on increased 0.4 percent in the June 2009 quarter. The main contributors to the increase in household spending were health medical, other goods (such as phone postal ). Expenditure on non-durables increased 0.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Household expenditure on motor fuels, food beverages were the main contributors to the increase. Household expenditure on durables decreased 0.9 percent for the June 2009 quarter. This is the third consecutive quarterly decrease for durables. Decreased household spending on new vehicles, personal supplies goods were the main contributors to the fall in durables in the latest quarter. For the year ended June 2009, durables decreased 3.4 percent. Residential building decreased 2.6 percent in the June 2009 quarter. In level terms, residential building construction is the lowest it has been since the September 2001 quarter. For the year ended June 2009, residential building declined 24.9 percent. 7

8 Business investment Business investment in fixed assets increased 1.3 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following three consecutive quarters of decline. For the year ended June 2009, business investment in fixed assets decreased 8.2 percent compared with an increase of 4.3 percent for the year ended June Investment in intangibles was up 6.3 percent in the June 2009 quarter with the main contributions coming from investment on software exploration. The increase in software investment was driven by an increase in imports of software, while exploration investment was up due to an increase in metres drilled. Other construction also increased this quarter (up 2.9 percent), with investment in infrastructure the largest contributor. Investment in plant machinery fell 3.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter, the fourth consecutive quarterly fall. Imports of plant machinery capital goods were down 4.0 percent, domestic production of machinery plant also decreased. 8

9 Overall, total inventories were run down $1.1 billion in the June 2009 quarter, with an $817 million run down in manufacturing inventories the largest contributor. The large run down in inventories was driven by exports of goods, as dem was met through existing stock rather than production. Lower manufacturing imports of goods this quarter also meant that those inventories weren't replaced. Government General government final consumption expenditure decreased 1.0 percent in the June 2009 quarter, was up 2.3 percent for the year ended June Central government recorded a 1.4 percent decrease in expenditure in the latest quarter, with decreases in education spending the main contributor. This is the largest decrease in central government expenditure since the December 2001 quarter. Local government final consumption expenditure increased 2.2 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Exports imports Export volumes of goods increased 4.7 percent in the June 2009 quarter, following a 0.6 percent increase in the previous quarter. Export volumes for the year ended June 2009 were down 3.9 percent. The volume of goods exported increased 5.0 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Increases in export volumes of dairy products (up 20.9 percent) wood paper products (up 6.9 percent) were the largest contributors to the increase. The increase in wood paper products was related to the increase in domestic production of forestry logging. Exports of were down 2.6 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Exports of travel, which measures the volume of spending by overseas visitors to New Zeal, decreased 1.6 percent. Import volumes of goods were down 3.8 percent in the June 2009 quarter. Intermediate goods had the largest contribution (down 6.1 percent). Passenger motor 9

10 cars recorded an increase this quarter (up 36.3 percent), following large declines in the last two quarters. For the year ended June 2009, import volumes decreased 12.3 percent compared with a 10.1 percent increase in the year ended June In the June 2009 quarter, merchise import volumes decreased 3.7 percent, while imports of decreased 3.9 percent. The largest decreases in merchise import volumes in the June 2009 quarter came from imports of intermediate goods. Imports of capital goods also fell (down 3.5 percent), with imports of machinery plant equipment (down 4.0 percent) the main driver. This movement is also reflected in the decline in investment in plant machinery equipment (down 3.8 percent). Real gross national disposable income Real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) decreased 1.3 percent for the year ended June 2009, while GDP contracted 1.8 percent over the same period. GDP is a measure of economic activity, while RGNDI is a measure of the volumes of goods that New Zeal residents have comm over. RGNDI takes into account changes in the terms of trade effect (the price of imports relative to the price of exports), real gains from net investment transfer income with the rest of the world. Implicit price deflators The GDP implicit price deflator (IPD) for the year ended June 2009 increased 1.9 percent. The GDP IPD is a broad measure of the overall price change for final goods produced in New Zeal. The IPD for gross national expenditure was up 3.9 percent for the year ended June This provides a broad measure of the overall price change for final goods purchased in New Zeal (such as consumer investment goods). In the June 2009 quarter, the IPD for exports of goods fell 10.7 percent, mainly 10

11 driven by a decrease in prices of dairy exports as reported in the Overseas Trade Indexes (Prices): June 2009 quarter (provisional) release. Revisions Production measure Forestry logging have been revised as provisional data has been replaced with actual data. From the June 2009 quarter onwards, forestry logging data will be actual rather than provisional. Agriculture value added has been revised due to implementation of new livestock benchmarks, updated deflators revisions to source data. Manufacturing has been revised due to updated information from the quarterly Economic Survey of Manufacturing revisions to the Producers Price Index (PPI). Wholesale trade has been revised due to updated information from the Wholesale Trade Survey. Mining, GST, education, ownership of occupied dwellings, import duties, finance insurance, property, local government administration have all been updated due to updated source data. Expenditure measure Household consumption expenditure has been revised due to incorporation of new annual benchmarks updated source data. Inventories has been revised due to revisions to the Economic Survey of Manufacturing, the Wholesale Trade Survey the PPI. Exports imports have been revised due to updated source data from the Overseas Trade Indexes Balance of Payments. Gross fixed capital formation local government final consumption expenditure have been revised due to updated source data. For technical information contact: Anqi Tan or Viki Ward Wellington info@stats.govt.nz Next release... Gross Domestic Product: September 2009 quarter will be released on 23 December

12 Technical notes First available information for June 2009 quarter Statistics in the attached tables provide the first available information on the chainvolume measure of gross domestic product (GDP) for the June 2009 quarter. Statistics for recent periods are based on information available at time of publication are subject to revision as additional or improved data becomes available. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product: Sources Methods (second edition) The second edition of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product: Sources Methods (2nd ed.) was released on 20 June It provides an update of the sources methods used for all quarterly GDP series produced by Statistics New Zeal, in both chainvolume measures current prices. Significant changes to compilation methods data sources have been introduced since the publication of the first edition of this report in These include the implementation of the new international stard, System of National Accounts 1993; the rebasing of the constant price series from 1991/92 to 1995/96 prices; the introduction of chain-linking; the adoption of a new industry classification, the Australian New Zeal Stard Industrial Classification 1996 (ANZSIC96). A free electronic version is available on Statistics New Zeal s website at: Or contact the information centre (call toll-free or info@stats.govt.nz) for hard copies. Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices The series in this release are chain-linked expressed in the average prices of the 1995/96 year. They are best described as annually reweighted chained Laspeyres volume indexes. Series are expressed in 1995/96 dollars rather than as index numbers, since this has the advantage of showing the relative size of each component. The chain-volume measures of GDP expenditure on GDP are constructed by: (a) compiling a Laspeyres volume index of the component in question, using the previous year's prices as weights; then (b) chaining the sequence of annual movements to produce a continuous time series. This procedure is used at different levels within the accounts. For example, GDP is compiled by weighting together the individual industry value-added components to produce a Laspeyres volume index for each quarter, then linking the resulting indexes to produce the GDP time series. Each industry component, such as transport communication, is also a chained-volume series. At this lowest level, the 'elemental series' are not chained are either single series in their own right or fixed-weight series comprising a number of components. Chaining is not adopted, either because relative price changes are not considered significant or ( this is the more likely scenario) the detailed information needed for annual weights is not available. 12

13 It is important to note that chain-volume series are not additive (ie the chain-volume series for an aggregate will not equal the sum of the values of its components). This is explained more fully in the report Chain Volume Measures in National Accounts, available at the Statistics NZ website ( This report, published as a discussion document in 1998, contains a detailed discussion of the concepts procedures used to compile chain-volume series. In most cases, the industry 'elemental series' estimates that make up the productionbased GDP are calculated by extrapolating value added, using indicator series that represent the quantities of output produced. The technique known as double deflation, by which volume value added is calculated as the difference between volume outputs inputs, is not widely used. It is currently used for the agriculture electricity industries on a quarterly basis, for water transport, business, cultural recreational, personal other on an annual basis. Production-based measure the preferred series Conceptually, both the production- expenditure-based GDP series are the same. However, as each series uses independent data estimation techniques, some differences between the alternative measures arise. The expenditure-based series has historically shown more quarterly volatility is more likely to be subject to timing valuation problems. For these reasons, the production-based measure is the preferred measure for quarter-on-quarter annual changes. Implicit price deflators Table 5.1 contains implicit price deflators (IPDs) for expenditure on GDP its components. IPDs provide a broad measure of price change for total economic activity each of the expenditure components. They are calculated by dividing the seasonally adjusted current price quarterly series by the equivalent chain-volume series, consequently provide an estimate of price change between the base period any other period, using the quantity weights in the latter period. Because weights change from period to period, a change in an IPD between any two periods, neither of which is the base period, reflects changes in both actual prices weights or compositional changes. Significant compositional changes may result in the IPDs being an unreliable estimate of price change. This problem is more likely to occur in the gross national expenditure (GNE) expenditure on GDP aggregates, because both include the change in inventories item, which is subject to extreme compositional changes, including a change in sign. Revisions policy Revisions to the previously published series may be made each quarter. The frequency cause of these revisions are as follows: Quarterly: additional data becoming available for the latest quarters, which is used to replace existing estimates; revisions to quarterly data (eg revisions to the Balance of Payments or Retail Trade Survey), which will be incorporated as soon as possible to maintain consistency between published macro-economic statistics. 13

14 Annual: introduction of annual data following the release of the latest annual national accounts each year; annual updating of the weights used to combine component series to totals subsequent chaining (see below). Irregular: for example methodological changes. However, note that revisions of this nature are, as far as possible, incorporated to coincide with the annual cycle of revisions outlined above. In addition, each of the above causes for revision, /or the addition of a new point in the actual quarterly series, has the potential to alter seasonal factors therefore may lead to a revision in the seasonally adjusted series. Revisions will also occur as a result of the quarterly improvement project described below. National accounts quality improvement project Over the past year a number of potential improvements to the annual quarterly national accounts were identified prioritised. These improvements relate to data sources, methods processes. Over the next two or so years, a number of quality improvement projects will be undertaken the outcomes from these projects incorporated into the annual quarterly national accounts statistics. Revisions this quarter will include the outcomes from these initiatives. Revisions resulting from chain-linking One of the key benefits gained through adopting chain-volume measures in place of fixed-weight series is that the relative weights of the component series are more up- todate. This reduces the likelihood of introducing biases in the volume measures, which would otherwise become progressively unrepresentative as relative prices change. However, the disadvantage is that the annual reweighting introduces another cause for revision. Reweighting is part of the annual revisions cycle is usually timed to coincide with the introduction of other new annual data from the current price GDP accounts. These changes are normally incorporated in the September quarter release, which is published at the end of December. The current price annual accounts provide the detailed component series needed for weighting the production-based series of GDP. There is currently a three-year time lag before these detailed series are available. As a result, the latest year for which up-todate weights have been used for the production-based series is for the year ended 31 March 2004, all subsequent quarters use these weights. Current price data is available on a more timely basis for the components comprising the expenditure-based measure of GDP. As a result, the latest year for which up-to-date weights have been used for the expenditure-based series is for the year ended 31 March 2006, all subsequent quarters use these weights. 14

15 When the weights are updated each year, this procedure results in revisions to all periods beyond the latest year for which detailed series are available (currently 2003/04 for the production-based measure 2005/06 for the expenditure-based measure). Direct indirect seasonal adjustment The level at which a series is seasonally adjusted is important, since it has the potential to affect the quality of that seasonally adjusted series. The individual component series of the main economic variables can be seasonally adjusted then summed to derive totals. This is called an indirect seasonal adjustment. Alternatively, the main economic variables can be seasonally adjusted at the total level, independently of the seasonal adjustment of their components. The adjustment of the total of an aggregate series is called a direct seasonal adjustment. The indirect approach has the advantage of retaining additivity, but this applies only to the current price series. While the indirect approach conceptually also provides additivity for volume series, additivity is lost by chain-linking. The direct approach will often give better results if the component series show similar seasonal patterns. At the most detailed level, the irregular factor may be large compared with the seasonal factor therefore may make it difficult to perform a proper seasonal adjustment. In a small country such as New Zeal, irregular events can have a strong impact on particular data. However, if the component series show the same seasonal pattern, aggregation often reduces the impact of the irregular factors in the component series. This is particularly relevant for New Zeal, where many economic series are affected by seasonal fluctuations in the primary industries. Statistics New Zeal has analysed both the direct indirect approaches for the two quarterly GDP aggregates: production expenditure on GDP. The direct approach has been chosen as the preferred method because the resulting series are smoother more stable. The residual between the seasonally adjusted components the aggregates is referred to as the balancing item (see tables ). The balancing item will often show significant seasonal variations. This is to be expected, as it captures the undetected seasonality in the component series. The level at which seasonal adjustment is applied to quarterly GDP series may differ from other Statistics NZ surveys (eg the Economic Survey of Manufacturing the Wholesale Trade Survey). These may contribute to differences in the aggregate seasonally adjusted series. Broad industry groups In tables , industry groups are combined to form the following broad groupings, based on the Australian New Zeal Stard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC): primary industries (agriculture; fishing, forestry mining) Goods-producing industries (manufacturing; electricity, gas water; construction) 15

16 service industries (wholesale trade; retail, accommodation restaurants; transport communications; finance, insurance business ; government administration defence; personal community ). In addition to these industrial groupings there exists an 'unallocated' category, which includes unallocated taxes on production imports (import duties, GST taxes on capital transactions) the nominal industry. Final consumption expenditure Private final consumption expenditure is the sum of household outlays on consumer goods, the expenditure on non-capital items by private non-profit organisations serving households. General government final consumption expenditure includes both central local government, as well as health education. Annual percentage changes When using annual percentage changes, care should be taken to ensure that the measures used are correctly understood. Those in tables 2.4, compare the level of economic activity in the latest quarter with the level of activity in the corresponding quarter 12 months earlier. Tables , on the other h, display the percentage change in the level of GDP expenditure on GDP, respectively, for the annual period each quarter, compared with the same period 12 months earlier. Annual measures are calculated by summing the series for each four-quarter period, dividing by the sum of the series of the preceding four quarters, then expressing this as a percentage. Real gross national disposable income Gross national disposable income (GNDI) is the income received (less income payable) by New Zeal residents, from both domestic overseas sources, after taking account of income redistribution by way of international transfers, or gross national income (GNI) plus international transfers. Real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) measures the real purchasing power of national disposable income, taking into account changes in the terms of trade, real gains from net investment transfer income with the rest of the world. Effectively, it is a measure of the volume of goods New Zeal residents have comm over. RGNDI is calculated as follows: chain-volume measure of gross domestic product (production-based measure) plus a terms of trade effect (trading gain/loss) equals real gross domestic income plus real value of total net investment income equals real gross national income plus real value of total net transfers equals real gross national disposable income 16

17 where the terms of trade effect is defined as: current price exports deflated by an imports implicit price index less chain-volume measure of exports the real value of total net investment income equals: investment income credits less investment income debits all deflated by an imports implicit price index the real value of total net transfers equals: transfers credits less transfers debits all deflated by an imports implicit price index. A per capita measure is simply the series in question divided by the population of New Zeal. From the March 1991 quarter onwards, the definition used is the 'estimated resident population of New Zeal'. This is defined as New Zeal residents currently in New Zeal plus those temporarily overseas. Overseas tourists visiting New Zeal are excluded from this measure. Prior to March 1991, the definition used was the 'de facto' population, which excludes New Zeal residents temporarily overseas includes overseas tourists in New Zeal. Apart from the definitional change, there is also a slight discontinuity at this point, as the series from March 1991 onwards includes an allowance for the census undercount. More information For more information, follow the link from the technical notes of this release on the Statistics NZ website. Copyright Information obtained from Statistics NZ may be freely used, reproduced, or quoted unless otherwise specified. In all cases Statistics NZ must be acknowledged as the source. Liability While care has been used in processing, analysing extracting information, Statistics NZ gives no warranty that the information supplied is free from error. Statistics NZ shall not be liable for any loss suffered through the use, directly or indirectly, of any information, product or service. Timing Timed statistical releases are delivered using postal electronic provided by third parties. Delivery of these releases may be delayed by circumstances outside the control of Statistics NZ. Statistics NZ accepts no responsibility for any such delays. 17

18 Tables The following tables are printed with this Hot Off The Press can also be downloaded from the Statistics New Zeal website in Excel format. If you do not have access to Excel, you may use the Excel file viewer to view, print export the contents of the file. 1.1 Gross domestic product, revisions summary 1.2 Gross domestic product by industry, chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 1.3 Expenditure on gross domestic product, chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 2.1 Gross domestic product by broad industry group, chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 2.2 Gross domestic product by industry, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 2.3 Gross domestic product by industry, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change from previous quarter 2.4 Gross domestic product by broad industry group, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, values percentage change from same quarter of previous year 2.5 Gross domestic product by industry, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 2.6 Gross domestic product by industry, actual chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 2.7 Gross domestic product by industry, actual chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change in annual values 3.1 Expenditure on gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 3.2 Expenditure on gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change from previous quarter 3.3 Expenditure on gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 3.4 Expenditure on gross domestic product, actual chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices 3.5 Expenditure on gross domestic product, actual chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices, percentage change in annual values 4.1 Expenditure on gross domestic product, seasonally adjusted current prices 4.2 Expenditure on gross domestic product, actual current prices 5.1 Index of implicit price deflators, 1995/96 = Index of implicit price deflators, 1995/96 = 1000, seasonally adjusted series percentage change from previous quarter 5.3 Index of implicit price deflators, 1995/96 = 1000, percentage change in annual values 6.1 Summary statistics 6.2 Summary statistics, percentage change in annual values 18

19 Analytical tables The analytical tables are no longer attached to this page. Infoshare, available on the Statistics NZ website ( provides free online access to all published series. The analytical tables are still available on request. Also available on request are text files that can be used in Infoshare to replicate the tables. 19

20 Table 1.1 Gross Domestic Product Revisions summary Previously published Revised Percentage change from previous quarter Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Symbol:... not applicable

21 Table 1.2 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices Industries Percentage change from previous quarter Percentage point contribution to change (1) Percentage change in annual values Percentage change from same quarter of previous year Summary of percentage changes June 2009 quarter Agriculture Fishing, forestry mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas water Construction Wholesale trade Retail, accommodation restaurants Transport communication Finance, insurance business Government administration defence Personal community Unallocated balancing item (1) Gross domestic product (1) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, the seasonal adjustment balancing item. Symbol: not applicable

22 Table 1.3 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices Components Percentage change from previous quarter Percentage point contribution to change (1) Percentage change in annual values Percentage change from same quarter of previous year Summary of percentage changes June 2009 quarter Final consumption expenditure Private General government Gross fixed capital formation Residential buildings Other fixed assets Exports of goods Imports of goods Change in inventories balancing item (1) Expenditure on gross domestic product (1) Includes the seasonal adjustment balancing item. Symbol: not applicable

23 Table 2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Broad Industry Group Chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Primary industries Goods-producing industries Service industries Gross domestic product (3) Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage $(million) $(million) $(million) $(million) change change change change Series ref: SNC S1RB01A9T4 S1RB01B9T4 S1RB01C9T4 S1RB01 Actual values percentage change in annual values (4) Annual (March years) , , R 74, ,407 R 3.6 R , , , ,829 R 4.9 R , ,175 R 4.6 R 79, , R , ,300 R 4.1 R 83, , , , R 86,829 R 4.1 R 129,079 R 3.0 R ,190 R 0.0 R 27,763 R -1.4 R 89,657 R 3.3 R 131,438 R 1.8 R , R 28,103 R 1.2 R 93,051 R 3.8 R 135,543 R 3.1 R ,529 R -1.2 R 26,543 R -5.6 R 93, , R Series ref: SNC S1RB01A9T4S S1RB01B9T4S S1RB01C9T4S S1RB01S Quarter 2003 Jun 2, , , ,480 R 0.5 R Sep 2, ,753 R 3.3 R 19, , R Dec 2, , R 20, ,415 R 1.3 R 2004 Mar 2, ,027 R 2.6 R 20, ,900 R 1.6 R Jun 2, , R 20, , R Sep 2, , , , Dec 2, ,053 R -1.0 R 20,994 R 1.7 R 31,299 R 0.0 R 2005 Mar 2, ,027 R -0.4 R 21, R 31, R Jun 2, ,088 R 0.9 R 21,523 R 1.4 R 32, Sep 2, , R 21,659 R 0.6 R 32, Dec 2, , , R 32, Mar 2, ,062 R 1.2 R 21, ,532 R 1.1 R Jun 2, ,939 R -1.7 R 22,065 R 0.6 R 32,537 R 0.0 R Sep 2,274 R -1.0 R 6,896 R -0.6 R 22,312 R 1.1 R 32,687 R 0.5 R Dec 2, R 6,905 R 0.1 R 22,539 R 1.0 R 32,895 R 0.6 R 2007 Mar 2,304 R -0.5 R 7,020 R 1.7 R 22,776 R 1.1 R 33,322 R 1.3 R Jun 2,340 R 1.5 R 7,037 R 0.3 R 22,990 R 0.9 R 33,605 R 0.8 R Sep 2,421 R 3.5 R 6,969 R -1.0 R 23, R 33,822 R 0.6 R Dec 2, R 7,103 R 1.9 R 23,393 R 0.9 R 34,102 R 0.8 R 2008 Mar 2,400 R -3.8 R 6,966 R -1.9 R 23,498 R 0.4 R 34,005 R -0.3 R Jun 2,372 R -1.2 R 6,902 R -0.9 R 23,390 R -0.5 R 33,858 R -0.4 R Sep 2,373 R 0.0 R 6,792 R -1.6 R 23,362 R -0.1 R 33,696 R -0.5 R Dec 2,385 R 0.5 R 6,547 R -3.6 R 23,551 R 0.8 R 33,369 R -1.0 R 2009 Mar 2,400 R 0.6 R 6,253 R -4.5 R 23,550 R 0.0 R 33,116 R -0.8 R Jun 2, , , , (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items. (4) Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers. Symbol: R revised Seasonally adjusted values percentage change from the previous quarter (4)

24 Table 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Agriculture Fishing, forestry mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas water Construction Wholesale trade Retail, accomm. restaurants Transport communication Finance, insurance business Govt. admin defence Personal community Gross domestic product (3) $(million) Series ref: SNC S1RB01 A1T4S S1RB01 A2T4S S1RB01 B1T4S S1RB01 B2T4S S1RB01 B3T4S S1RB01 C1T4S S1RB01C 2T4S S1RB01C 3T4S S1RB01C 4T4S S1RB01 C5T4S S1RB01 C6T4S S1RB01S Quarter 2003 Jun 1, ,631 R 548 R 1,364 2,215 2,163 2,961 7,515 1,182 3,597 29,480 R Sep 1, , ,449 2,267 2,200 2,990 7,566 R 1,202 3,608 30,016 Dec 1, , R 1,443 2,339 2,232 3,064 7,634 1,246 3,642 30,415 R 2004 Mar 1, ,914 R 643 1,460 2,377 R 2,265 3,113 7,704 1,255 3,724 30,900 R Jun 1, , ,540 2,414 2,297 3,159 7,732 1,285 3,704 31,173 Sep 1, ,915 R 663 1,526 2,453 R 2,349 3,185 7,766 1,286 3,707 31,296 Dec 1, , ,498 2,481 2,373 3,244 7,958 1,299 3,734 31,299 R 2005 Mar 1, ,859 R 626 R 1,532 2,477 2,382 3,290 8,103 1,311 3,762 31,607 Jun 1, ,830 R 627 1,614 2,544 R 2,436 3,302 8,220 1,333 R 3,774 32,109 Sep 1, , ,559 2,528 2,464 3,321 8,278 1,365 3,788 32,273 Dec 1, , ,575 2,497 2,464 3,296 8,339 1,379 3,821 32, Mar 1,662 R 644 R 4,852 R 586 R 1,620 2,509 2,459 R 3,324 8,421 1,414 R 3,866 32,532 R Jun 1, ,750 R 621 R 1,551 2,496 2,468 3,287 8,513 R 1,455 R 3,885 32,537 R Sep 1,618 R 626 R 4,725 R 612 1,545 2,517 2,496 R 3,366 R 8,607 R 1,467 3,912 32,687 R Dec 1, ,692 R 629 1,561 2,521 2,527 3,420 8,688 R 1,488 R 3,952 32,895 R 2007 Mar 1, R 4,782 R 626 R 1,591 2,556 R 2,603 R 3,456 8,755 1,516 R 3,950 33,322 R Jun 1,630 R 685 4,789 R 611 R 1,620 R 2,580 R 2,593 3,481 R 8,869 R 1,526 3,997 R 33,605 R Sep 1,599 R 811 4,727 R 588 1,640 R 2,614 R 2,604 R 3,522 R 8,941 R 1,567 3,993 33,822 R Dec 1,616 R 872 R 4,837 R 584 1,675 2,671 2,606 3,578 9,059 R 1,569 R 3,988 R 34,102 R 2008 Mar 1,537 R 858 R 4,778 R 596 R 1,584 2,647 R 2,607 R 3,645 9,045 R 1,591 4,053 R 34,005 R Jun 1,533 R 832 R 4,785 R 584 R 1,532 R 2,607 R 2,555 R 3,667 R 8,969 R 1,607 R 4,084 R 33,858 R Sep 1,576 R 783 R 4,654 R 613 1,506 R 2,557 2,527 R 3,618 R 9,017 R 1,618 R 4,102 R 33,696 R Dec 1,626 R 739 R 4, ,448 2,435 2,521 3,592 9,226 R 1,656 R 4,152 R 33,369 R 2009 Mar 1,630 R 751 R 4,171 R 592 R 1,454 2,371 R 2,450 R 3,430 9,450 R 1,653 R 4,158 R 33,116 R Jun 1, , ,426 2,322 2,461 3,395 9,509 1,646 4,156 33,143 (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items. Symbol: R revised

25 Table 2.3 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Percentage change from previous quarter (3) Agriculture Fishing, forestry mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas water Construction Wholesale trade Retail, accomm. restaurants Transport communication Finance, insurance business Govt. admin defence Personal community Gross domestic product (4) Quarter 2003 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers. (4) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items.

26 Table 2.4 Gross Domestic Product by Broad Industry Group Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Values percentage change from same quarter of previous year (3) Primary industries Goods-producing industries Service industries Gross domestic product (4) Percentage Percentage Percentage Percentage $(million) $(million) $(million) $(million) change change change change Series ref: SNC S1RB01A9T4S S1RB01B9T4S S1RB01C9T4S S1RB01S Quarter 2003 Jun 2, , , ,480 R 3.7 Sep 2, ,753 R , , Dec 2, , , ,415 R Mar 2, ,027 R , ,900 R 5.3 Jun 2, , , , Sep 2, , , , Dec 2, ,053 R ,994 R ,299 R Mar 2, ,027 R , , Jun 2, ,088 R ,523 R , Sep 2, , ,659 R , Dec 2, , , , Mar 2, ,062 R , ,532 R 2.9 Jun 2, ,939 R ,065 R ,537 R 1.3 Sep 2,274 R ,896 R ,312 R ,687 R 1.3 Dec 2, ,905 R ,539 R ,895 R Mar 2,304 R ,020 R ,776 R ,322 R 2.4 Jun 2,340 R 1.9 7,037 R ,990 R ,605 R 3.3 Sep 2,421 R 6.5 6,969 R , ,822 R 3.5 Dec 2, ,103 R ,393 R ,102 R Mar 2,400 R 4.1 6,966 R ,498 R ,005 R 2.0 Jun 2,372 R 1.4 6,902 R ,390 R ,858 R 0.8 Sep 2,373 R ,792 R ,362 R ,696 R -0.4 Dec 2,385 R ,547 R ,551 R ,369 R Mar 2,400 R 0.0 6,253 R ,550 R ,116 R -2.6 Jun 2, , , , (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers. (4) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items. Symbol: R revised

27 Table 2.5 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Seasonally adjusted chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Percentage change from same quarter of previous year (3) Agriculture Fishing, forestry mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas water Construction Wholesale trade Retail, accomm. restaurants Transport communication Finance, insurance business Govt. admin defence Personal community Gross domestic product (4) Quarter 2003 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers. (4) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items.

28 Table 2.6 Gross Domestic Product by Industry Actual chain-volume series expressed in 1995/96 prices (1)(2) Agriculture Fishing, forestry mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas water Construction Wholesale trade Retail, accomm. restaurants Transport communication Finance, insurance business Govt. admin defence Personal community Gross domestic product (3) $(million) Series ref: SNC S1RB01 A1T4 S1RB01 A2T4 S1RB01B 1T4 S1RB01 B2T4 S1RB01 B3T4 S1RB01C 1T4 S1RB01C 2T4 S1RB01C 3T4 S1RB01C 4T4 S1RB01 C5T4 S1RB01C 6T4 S1RB01 Annual (March years) ,588 2,978 16,935 2,219 4,529 9,347 8,000 11,151 28,105 4,421 13, ,407 R ,560 3,025 18,399 2,384 5,180 9,025 8,419 11,685 29,471 4,641 14, ,829 R ,299 2,741 19,054 2,395 5,715 9,195 8,866 12,124 30,419 R 4,886 14, , ,091 2,632 19,638 2,525 6,099 9,823 9,406 12,868 31,558 5,182 14, , ,485 2,597 19,351 2,414 6,367 10,077 9,826 13,228 33,258 5,489 15, ,079 R ,505 2,567 18,948 R 2,486 6,251 10,087 10,098 13,517 34,564 R 5,929 15, ,438 R ,382 R 3,218 R 19,149 R 2,379 6,527 10,514 10,413 14,214 35,913 R 6,256 16,030 R 135,543 R ,364 R 3,106 R 18,126 R 2,394 5,945 9,975 R 10,052 14,294 36,662 R 6,537 R 16,494 R 134,028 R Quarter 2003 Jun 1, , ,367 2,200 2,079 2,886 7,515 1,223 3,613 28,771 Sep 1, , ,518 2,278 2,117 2,934 7,566 R 1,197 3,603 29,655 Dec 2, , ,486 2,440 2,427 3,166 7,634 1,264 3,651 31, Mar 1, , ,344 2,277 2,243 3,138 7,704 1,203 3,701 30,636 Jun 1, , ,546 2,400 2,204 3,076 7,732 1,329 3,727 30,460 Sep 1, , ,596 2,468 2,262 3,129 7,766 1,281 3,699 30,933 Dec 1, , ,533 2,584 2,571 3,343 7,958 1,315 3,739 32, Mar 1, , ,422 2,371 2,369 3,320 8,103 1,258 3,739 31,353 Jun 1, , ,620 2,531 2,331 3,216 8,220 1,378 3,802 31,405 Sep 1, , ,629 2,545 2,371 3,271 8,278 1,360 3,778 31,908 R Dec 2, , ,604 2,599 2,665 3,388 8,339 1,394 3,822 33, Mar 1, , ,514 2,402 2,458 3,353 8,421 1,356 3,845 32,276 R Jun 1,236 R 649 4,677 R 611 1,558 2,482 2,360 3,206 8,513 R 1,502 3,916 31,858 R Sep 1, , ,606 2,537 2,401 3,322 8,607 R 1,464 3,870 32,311 R Dec 2,066 R 630 4,955 R 624 1,587 2,623 2,733 3,504 8,688 R 1,507 3,953 34,208 R 2007 Mar 1,772 R 666 4,698 R 604 1,500 2,445 2,604 3,484 8,755 1,456 3,930 33,061 R Jun 1,226 R 705 4,728 R 604 1,622 2,568 2,478 3,399 8,869 R 1,576 4,027 32,924 R Sep 1,410 R 817 4,629 R 623 1,703 2,637 2,503 3,480 8,941 R 1,564 3,979 33,423 R Dec 2,059 R 841 5,108 R 579 1,702 2,778 2,820 3,662 9,059 R 1,588 3,991 R 35,458 R 2008 Mar 1,687 R 856 R 4,683 R 573 1,500 2,531 2,611 3,673 9,045 R 1,528 4,033 R 33,737 R Jun 1,127 R 854 R 4,741 R 578 1,530 2,595 2,441 3,586 8,969 R 1,657 R 4,114 R 33,182 R Sep 1,387 R 789 R 4,555 R 647 1,563 2,580 2,427 3,577 9,017 R 1,616 R 4,087 R 33,294 R Dec 2,072 R 709 R 4,732 R 600 1,469 2,533 2,727 3,675 9,226 R 1,676 R 4,155 R 34,697 R 2009 Mar 1,778 R 754 R 4,097 R 569 1,384 2,267 R 2,456 3,455 9,450 R 1,588 R 4,138 R 32,855 R Jun 1, , ,423 2,310 2,350 3,325 9,509 1,695 4,186 32,480 (1) Year ended 31 March. (2) Chain-volume series are not additive. Refer to the 'Technical notes' of this release for further information. (3) Includes unallocated taxes on production imports, bank service charge, balancing items. Symbol: R revised