Using Data, Analysis and Mapping Technology to Inform Housing and Community Development Investment Decisions

Transcription

1 Using Data, Analysis and Mapping Technology to Inform Housing and Community Development Investment Decisions National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies San Francisco, CA April, 2017

2 About Reinvestment Fund Our mission is to build wealth and opportunity for low-wealth people and places through the promotion of socially and environmentally responsible development. Since 1985, Reinvestment Fund has made $1.8 billion in cumulative investments and loans. We are supported by over 865 investors that include individuals, foundations, religious institutions, financial institutions, civic organizations and government. Top AERIS rating Four Star with AAA Policy PLUS and AA S&P rating. Business Lines Lending and Investing Policy Solutions Reinvestment.com

3 Reinvestment Fund s Market Value Analysis (MVA)

4 The Market Value Analysis The Market Value Analysis (MVA) is a tool to assist residents and policymakers identify and understand the elements of their local real estate markets. It is an objective, data-driven, tool built on local administrative data and validated with local experts. With an MVA, public officials and private actors can more precisely target intervention strategies in weak markets and support sustainable growth in stronger markets. City of Philadelphia MVA

5 Who is Using the MVA? MVAs have been funded by government agencies (all levels), local foundations, and financial institutions around the country. Philadelphia, PA Washington, DC Baltimore, MD San Antonio, TX Camden, NJ Newark, NJ Selected (8) NJ regions Akron, OH New Orleans, LA State of Delaware Detroit, MI Houston, TX Milwaukee, WI Pittsburgh, PA St. Louis, MO Kansas City, MO Atlantic City, NJ Reading Area, PA Jacksonville, FL Wilmington, DE Prince George s County, MD Indianapolis, IN Selma, AL Allegheny County, PA

6 Reinvestment Fund MVA Process Our Normative Assumptions when Analyzing Markets: Public subsidy is scarce and it alone cannot create a market; Public policy and subsidy must be used to leverage, or clear the path, for private investment; In distressed markets, invest near strong assets (e.g., major institution of place, transportation hub, environmental amenities) Build from Strength ; All parts of a county are customers of the services and resources that it has to offer; Government action is tailored to the market conditions; Decisions to invest and/or deploy governmental programs must be based on objectively gathered data and sound quantitative and qualitative analysis.

7 Preparing an MVA 1 Acquire local administrative data and geocode to Census block group geographies. 2 Manually inspect and validate data layers by driving the area. 3 Use statistical cluster analysis to identify areas with common attributes. Iterative 4 Manually inspect areas for conformity with local experts to assess fit. 5 Alter parameters; re-solve and re-inspect until model accurately represents area. 6 Summarize and describe the characteristics of each market. Lessons from 15+ years of experience Validating Data Is Critical. Researchers must visit the county to understand the data. Geographic Scale Matters. Census tract and MSA geographies are too large to accurately reflect local markets. One Size Does Not Fit All. Measurement scales and the appropriate number of clusters are different in every county. Integrate Local Knowledge. The MVA model is tested with local experts to incorporate qualitative feedback from each geography.

8 Selected MVA Components

9 Typical MVA Components Residential Sales Activity and Types Housing Tenure Land Use Rental Housing Subsidy Measure(s) of Investment Measure(s) of Stress Measure(s) of Vacancy Measure(s) of Blight

10 Median Sale Price q2

11 Foreclosure Filings as a Percent of Sales q2

12 HUD MF Units & PHA-Owned Residential as Percent of Rental Units

13 Philadelphia s MVA

14 2015 Market Value Analysis

15 Market Value Analysis Average Market Characteristics Market Number of Block Groups Sales Median Sales Price Median Sales Price Price (Condo Altered) Variance Percent Condo Percent New Const (08-15) Percent of Properties with Permits Percent Owner Occupied Percent Vacancy Housing Units per Acre Forclosures Foreclosures as a as Percent of Percent of Sales Sales Subsidized Housing A 42 $ 458,429 $ 595, % 2.1% 33.9% 35.6% 3.4% % 0.8% B 99 $ 330,164 $ 344, % 5.1% 8.8% 47.7% 2.0% % 4.6% C 165 $ 191,327 $ 194, % 0.8% 4.9% 75.1% 1.7% % 0.1% D 97 $ 148,248 $ 150, % 1.2% 6.6% 33.8% 3.3% % 5.2% E 150 $ 117,613 $ 117, % 0.3% 4.4% 71.6% 1.9% % 0.5% F 164 $ 75,952 $ 76, % 0.2% 4.4% 60.3% 3.5% % 4.3% G 126 $ 49,674 $ 49, % 0.2% 4.3% 62.1% 4.5% % 2.9% H 168 $ 28,794 $ 28, % 0.4% 4.4% 51.6% 6.9% % 6.7% I 160 $ 17,227 $ 17, % 0.3% 4.1% 49.9% 9.6% % 7.5% J 111 $ 9,956 $ 9, % 0.2% 3.4% 43.6% 11.9% % 14.1%

16 Uses of the MVA Component of a local land banking strategy (Phila., NOLA) Guide capital budget (Detroit) Focus code enforcement (Phila., Baltimore, Indianapolis, NOLA) Support Equitable Development Programming (Phila., Pittsburgh) Transportation planning (St. Louis) Target statewide Strong Neighborhoods Revolving Loan Fund (DE/DSHA) Inform LIHTC QAP (DSHA) Develop CDGB ConPlan / Comprehensive plan (Detroit, Wilmington, St. Louis) Assess changes in the market over time (Phila., Baltimore, Pittsburgh) Evaluate development opportunities (Pittsburgh, Phila., Houston, Detroit, St. Louis, cities in NJ) Target demolition and acquisition activities (Baltimore, Phila., Detroit, NOLA) Select transformative tipping point projects (Phila., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, NOLA) Engage partners philanthropic, non-profit, government in coordinated efforts to rebuild neighborhoods (Baltimore, Milwaukee, NOLA) Support the Assessment of Fair Housing (Phila.)

17 MVA and the Assessment of Fair Housing Process

18 Purpose of the AFH The duty to administer programs and use federal funds in a manner that affirmatively furthers fair housing has its roots in Section 808(d) of the Fair Housing Act. AFH Guidance to provide program participants with an effective planning approach to aid program participants in taking meaningful actions to overcome historic patterns of segregation, promote fair housing choice and foster inclusive communities that are free from discrimination. The duty to affirmatively further fair housing extends to all of a program participant s activities and programs relating to housing and urban development.

19 Achieving the Goals of AFFH A program participant s strategies and actions must affirmatively further fair housing and may include, but are not limited to, enhancing mobility strategies and encouraging development of new affordable housing in areas of opportunity, as well as place-based strategies to encourage community revitalization, including preservation of existing affordable housing, including HUD-assisted housing.

20 Philadelphia AFH Example: Evictions, Market Strength and Racial Composition Row Labels Rental Units Eviction (14-15) HH w/ Multiple Evictions Evic as a % of Rental Units Evictions (10-11) Numeric Change (10-11 to 14-15) % Change (10-11 to 14-15) 1. Strong Markets 110,320 10, % % 1. Low Black Pop 77,342 5, % % 2. Mid Black Pop 31,585 4, % % 3. High Black Pop 1, % % 2. Middle Markets 78,474 14,377 1,237 9% % 1. Low Black Pop 19,445 2, % % 2. Mid Black Pop 36,292 6, % % 3. High Black Pop 22,737 5, % % 3. Distressed Markets 77,353 15,526 1,250 10% % 1. Low Black Pop 5, % % 2. Mid Black Pop 26,119 5, % % 3. High Black Pop 45,794 9, % % Source: City of Philadelphia Assessment of Fair Housing

21 Philadelphia AFH Example: HCV Usage, Market Strength and Racial Composition Row Labels Rental Units Vouchers 2011 % of Rental Units (2011) Vouchers 2015 % of Rental Units (2015) % Difference (2011 v. 2015) 1. Strong Markets 110,320 2, % 2, % -0.8% 1. Low Black Pop 77,342 1, % 1, % -3.7% 2. Mid Black Pop 31,585 1, % 1, % 4.5% 3. High Black Pop 1, % % -6.7% 2. Middle Markets 78,474 5, % 6, % 21.1% 1. Low Black Pop 19, % % 16.8% 2. Mid Black Pop 36,292 2, % 2, % 16.2% 3. High Black Pop 22,737 1, % 2, % 29.6% 3. Distressed Markets 77,353 7, % 8, % 17.7% 1. Low Black Pop 5, % % -10.1% 2. Mid Black Pop 26,119 2, % 2, % 2.1% 3. High Black Pop 45,794 4, % 5, % 27.0% Source: City of Philadelphia Assessment of Fair Housing

22 Philadelphia AFH Example: Foreclosures, Market Strength and Racial Composition Row Labels Number of Tracts Owner Occupied Housing Units Mortgage Foreclosures Mortgage Foreclosure Rate Total HEMAP Appplication s Rejected Accepted HEMAP Rejection Rate 1. Strong Markets ,287 2,886 2% % 1. Low Black Pop ,032 2,203 2% % 2. Mid Black Pop 41 19, % % 3. High Black Pop 2 1, % % 2. Middle Markets ,138 6,373 6% 1, % 1. Low Black Pop 32 35,770 1,705 5% % 2. Mid Black Pop 49 42,836 2,589 6% % 3. High Black Pop 34 35,532 2,079 6% % 3. Distressed Markets ,455 3,998 6% % 1. Low Black Pop 8 4, % % 2. Mid Black Pop 31 22,236 1,423 6% % 3. High Black Pop 65 45,743 2,375 5% % Source: City of Philadelphia Assessment of Fair Housing

23 PolicyMap Example: Select Areas of Opportunity

24 What is PolicyMap? National data mapping and analysis tool Easy-to-use, online access to data and analytical tools in a sophisticated yet user-friendly web platform Over 37,000 indicators in maps, tables and reports Built for the non-tech, GIS user Committed to providing much of what we do the public for free while maintaining a self sustaining business model

25 Data Demographics Education Incomes Unemployment Rates Jobs Wages Political Boundaries Crime School Districts School Performance Vacancy Home Sales Housing Burdens Mortgages Housing Investments Tax Returns Transit Access Food Access Obesity Uninsured Populations Government Designations

26 Philadelphia s MVA (Select Market Types C F)

27 Distance to a High Quality (Rated) Public Elementary / Jr High School

28 Middle Markets, Good Access to Public Schools & Not an R/ECap

29 Middle Markets, Good Access to Public Schools & Not an R/ECap

30 Reinvestment Fund Policy Solutions Ira Goldstein, President Contact:

31 Additional Slides MVA Process and Supplemental Analyses

32 Roles and Responsibilities of the MVA Taskforce Role: Work with Reinvestment Fund to understand the methods, view interim results and affirm final results. Support a data-driven approach to resource allocation and planning once the study is complete. Responsibilities include assisting the study team to: Identify, select and secure data Help understand nuances of local market Contribute to validation of data and models Advise of projects that are in the development/ predevelopment stages Share experiences working with data sets: understand limitations/offer alternative sources/ways to control for problems Recommend strategic investment action by the public, institutional and private entities once the MVA is complete. Recommend post-mva inquiries

33 Baltimore: Hi Price Variation and Permitting Activity Indicating Areas of Change

34 Philadelphia: MVA with Extreme Displacement Pressure Indicating Risk of Displacement Due To Gentrification

35 Akron MVA: Investor Owned Residential Parcels

36 Kansas City, MO: MVA and Public Health / Life Expectancy Across Kansas City average life expectancies ranged from 71 to 82 years. Many of the areas with the lowest life expectancies in the city are concentrated in disadvantaged communities and distressed markets. 84% of the block groups with an average life expectancy over 79.5 years were in Blue and Purple markets, while 86% of block groups with life expectancies of 70.9 to 72.7 years were in Yellow markets. Average Life Expectancy by MVA Category Shortest 70.9 to 72.7 years 73.8 to 76.1 years 77.0 to 79.4 years Longest Over 79.5 years A 0% 3% 7% 17% B 2% 1% 5% 18% C 4% 25% 13% 22% D 2% 6% 30% 29% E 2% 19% 26% 6% F 6% 17% 13% 8% G 31% 18% 6% 0% H 28% 6% 0% 0% I 25% 3% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

37 Additional Slides Supplemental Background on PolicyMap

38 Our Approach GIS for the non-gis expert. Instant, sophisticated market knowledge. Create the largest library of reliable, authoritative, normalized, place-based data on the web and make it available through a familiar interface accessible on any browser. Atthe-ready for visualization and analysis; no need for tech skills. Leverage a robust geo-database at a fraction of the cost of collecting yourself and building a stand alone mapping application. Make it fully accessible to those who need data to their work, but don t have GIS training.

39 Product Offerings PolicyMap offers 5 products within four markets, including local, state and federal government and can service government entities through the GSA IT schedule. Online Subscriptions: Online access to maps, tables, reports and analysis as well as the ability to upload data. Widgets: Fully interactive maps powered by PolicyMap that appear on a customer s website. Data API: Application Programming Interface allows customers to pull PolicyMap data into their own web application. Institutional Licenses: PolicyMap site licenses; private label; university libraries and governments. Custom Integrations: Development of custom web applications powered by PolicyMap platform.