Emerging Markets Equity Allocator February 2018

Transcription

1 Leila Heckman, Ph.D John Mullin, Ph.D Charles Waters A Disciplined Approach to Emerging Market Equity Allocation Emerging Markets Equity Allocator February 2018 Highlights: We are making several changes to our model this month. We are adjusting our valuation category to include Price-to-Earnings minus its 10-Year Average; and we are adjusting our risk category to include Excess Domestic Credit Growth and Current Account/GDP. We have also added an indicator of short-term interest rate trends. [Indicator definitions are shown on page 3]. Underweight Emerging Asia Taiwan is now the top ranked market in Emerging Asia. The market offers a relatively high dividend yield and its PE multiple is below its 10-year average. Taiwan s attractiveness is also boosted by its favorable risk indicators, including a low beta vis-à-vis the MSCI ACWI index and a substantial current account surplus relative to GDP. Malaysia which remains an overweight has seen GDP growth forecasts upgraded by 0.7% over the past six months. Moreover, the market s beta risk is quite low. South Korea is an overweight, largely due to inexpensive equity valuations, including an 8.9x forecast 2018 price-to-earnings ratios (well below the 12.5x emerging markets average). Overweight Emerging Europe/Middle East/Africa Russia proved resistant to changes in the allocation model and stubbornly retained its top ranking. The market s valuation rank declined modestly (mostly because the market s PE ratio is modestly above its 10-year average). However, its growth and risk indicators remain strong, with GDP upgrades, a positive terms-of-trade trend, an undervalued real exchange rate, and a current account surplus. In addition, Russia scores well according to our newly adopted interest rate indicator: Shortterm rates have declined relative to their 24-month average. Turkey also remains an overweight, largely due to inexpensive valuations, robust growth upgrades, and strong year-over-year price momentum. Underweight Latin America Brazil has moved up in the EM rankings table and is now a modest overweight. On the negative side of the ledger, the market s valuation indicators are unattractive and its beta risk remains high. On the positive side, Brazilian GDP forecasts have been upgraded, sovereign spreads continue to narrow, and the market s price momentum is relatively strong. Colombia remains overweight. The equity market benefits from Colombia s positive terms-of-trade trend (due to firm global energy prices). In addition, short-term interest rates are trending downward, the peso is undervalued in real terms, and sovereign spreads continue to narrow. This publication is provided by ( HGA ), which is not an independent entity but is a Division of DCM Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. The region and sector allocations recommended herein are solely those of HGA and may differ from those of other business units of DCM Advisors, LLC. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or any interest in DCM Advisors, LLC vehicle(s). The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The comments contained herein are opinions and may not represent the opinions of DCM Advisors, LLC and are subject to change without notice. All investments are subject to the risk of loss, including the potential for significant loss, and it should not be assumed that any models or opinions incorporated herein will be profitable or will equal past performance. Copyright 2016 DCM Advisors, LLC. All Rights Reserved. These materials are the exclusive property of DCM Advisors, LLC. Unless otherwise expressly permitted by DCM Advisors, LLC in writing, please do not distribute, reproduce or use these materials for any purpose other than internal business purposes solely in connection with the management of investment funds or investment products that are sponsored or advised by you. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 1

2 Overview of the Emerging Markets Equity Allocator Purpose The Emerging Market Equity Allocator summarizes the country allocation recommendations of our interactive model for emerging market countries. The goal is to enhance the dollar returns of un-hedged, long-only emerging market equity portfolios benchmarked against the MSCI emerging markets universe. Coverage Our coverage currently extends to all 23 MSCI emerging markets. Unless otherwise noted, all return data are based on MSCI indices. The publication s EM benchmark is calculated using MSCI country index returns and MSCI country market capitalization data. The publication s EM benchmark returns closely approximate the returns of the MSCI emerging markets index. The Model Our interactive model is built on a scoring mechanism. Each month it compares the markets under coverage on the basis of quantitative investment factors that have been shown to convey information about future equity returns in research by academics and practitioners, including ourselves. These include indicators of valuation, growth, risk, interest rate trends, and sentiment/momentum. The factors and the weights we put on them are shown in the table below. Each month, scores are computed for each factor, and a total score is computed for each country (equal to the weighted average of the individual factor scores). Each country then gets an overweight or underweight allocation relative to the benchmark that is roughly in proportion to the difference between the country s total score and the cross-market average total score (with restrictions on the maximum allocation possible to each market to avoid unrealistically large exposures to small markets). The model is updated each month and the performance of the hypothetical portfolio is compared to the benchmark. Investment Indicators Valuation Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forecast) (Page 8) Price-to-Earnings Minus it 10-Year Average (Page 10) Dividend Yield (Page 12) Growth Six-Month Change in GDP Forecasts (Page 14) Terms-of-Trade Trend (Page 16) Risk Beta (Page 18) Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation (Page 20) Current Account (Page 22) Domestic Credit (Page 24) Change in Sovereign Risk Spreads (Page 26) Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rate Trend (Page 28) Sentiment/Momentum One-Month Upward Company Revision Ratio (Page 30) Year-over-Year Price Momentum (Page 32) lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 2

3 Investment Indicator Summary: VALUATION Forecasted Price-to-Earnings: The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio is calculated by dividing the aggregate market capitalization of a country s MSCI constituents by the aggregate of their forecast earnings, aggregated from FactSet Estimates company-level data by. Source: FactSet Research Systems, Price-to-Earnings Minus its 10-Year Average: The Price-to-earnings ratio is calculated by dividing the aggregate market capitalization of a country s MSCI constituents by the aggregate of their recently reported 12 months of earnings. This ratio is compared with its average over the last 10 years. Source: MSCI, Dividend Yield: The ratio of the total dividend payout to the marketcap of a country index. Source: MSCI GROWTH 6-Month Change in GDP Forecasts: The 6-month change of GDP forecasts measures the difference between the forecasted GDP growth rate and the forecasted GDP growth rate as of 6-months ago. Source: Consensus Economics Terms-of-Trade Change: A country s terms of trade is a measure of its aggregate export price index relative to its aggregate import price index. The model s proprietary measure of the terms-of-trade change over the past 18 months is based on the interaction of (a) global fuel, mineral, agricultural, and manufacturing price movements, and (b) the varying import and export structures of the markets in the model s universe. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organization, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, RISK Beta: Beta measures the combination of volatility and correlation for each market relative to world returns based on the last 18 months of returns. Source: MSCI, Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation: The real effective exchange rate is a measure of the local-currency cost of the local consumption basket relative to the local-currency cost of a trade weighted basket of foreign consumption baskets. The model s measure of overvaluation is the percent deviation between the current real effective exchange rate and it 6-year moving average. Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Heckman Global Advisors Change in Sovereign Spreads: Sovereign spreads are barometers for measuring investor risk aversion. A declining spread implies a decline in risk aversion. The indicator included in the model is based on the decline of the spread over the previous 24 months. Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg Excess Domestic Credit Growth: Excess domestic credit growth is defined as the change in the ratio of domestic credit to GDP (DC/GDP) over the last five years. Source: World Bank and Heckman Global Advisors Current Account/GDP: Current Account Balance is measured relative to GDP. Source: Bloomberg, INTEREST RATES Nominal Interest Rate Changes: Nominal interest rate changes are measured as differences between short-term rates and their 24-month averages. Source: Bloomberg, SENTIMENT/MOMENTUM (Higher Values Preferred) One Month Upward Company Revision Ratio: The one month upward company revision ratio is computed as the number of companies with upward revisions to earnings forecasts divided by the total number of companies with revisions over the last month. Source: FactSet Research Systems Price Momentum: The price momentum factor is defined as the one-year percentage change in each market s local currency price index. Source: MSCI VALUE-TRAP MARKETS Value-trap markets are those that score in the first quartile according to valuation indicators but in the bottom quartile according to the non-valuation indicators. For these markets, we neutralize valuation scores by setting them equal to the global average country valuation score. This has the effect of lowering the overall scores of value-trap markets. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 3

4 1BCountry Rankings: February 2017 Overall Rank Previous Rank Valuation Rank Growth Rank Interest Rate Rank Risk Rank Sentiment/ Momentum Rank Russia Turkey Taiwan U.A.E Hungary Colombia Czech Rep Malaysia Egypt Brazil S. Korea Chile Poland Thailand Qatar Peru Indonesia Greece South Africa China Pakistan* Philippines Mexico India Source: MSCI, *Value traps: markets with attractive valuation indicators but generally poor growth, risk, and momentum/sentiment indicators. These markets are assigned the global average valuation score, which causes a decline in their value ranks, overall ranks, and recommended allocations. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 4

5 2BRecommended Country Allocation: February 2018 The model is constructed using a proprietary re-balancing algorithm, which takes into account (on a threemonth moving average basis) scores of country attractiveness based on indicators of valuation, growth, risk, and sentiment/momentum. Emerging Market Model Portfolio* MSCI-Based** Emerging Markets Model Emerging Markets Model Weight (%) Weight (%) Underweight/Overweight Brazil 7.3% 8.4% 1.1% Chile 1.2% 1.3% 0.1% Colombia 0.4% 2.0% 1.6% Mexico 2.9% 0.0% -2.9% Peru 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% Latin America 12.3% 11.7% -0.6% China 30.8% 25.3% -5.5% India 8.4% 0.0% -8.4% Indonesia 2.1% 0.0% -2.1% Malaysia 2.3% 3.4% 1.0% Pakistan 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% Philippines 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% South Korea 14.7% 15.9% 1.2% Taiwan 11.2% 14.8% 3.6% Thailand 2.3% 0.0% -2.3% Asia 73.0% 59.4% -13.6% Czech Republic 0.2% 2.1% 1.9% Egypt 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% Greece 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% Hungary 0.3% 4.2% 3.8% Poland 1.3% 0.6% -0.8% Qatar 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Russia 3.5% 9.4% 6.0% South Africa 6.8% 3.2% -3.6% Turkey 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% United Arab Emirates 0.6% 3.3% 2.7% Europe/Middle East/Africa 14.7% 28.8% 14.1% * Value-traps **Whereas our market rankings are a snapshot of relative attractiveness, our allocation recommendations reflect only a partial adjustment process. A sustained improvement in a market s ranking will be fully reflected in our allocations only after three months. In addition, the maximum allocations are constrained to be no larger than one times the benchmark weight plus 8.0%. **Source for benchmark weights: Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Free Indexes. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 5

6 3BPerformance of Model The following describes the performance of a portfolio weighted using the investment factors and weights described on page two. Performance of Model Portfolio Total Return Portfolio (Gross), Log Scale Total Return Portfolio (Net), Log Scale Source: MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 30. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 6

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8 8BValuation: 2018 Price-to-Earnings Ratio Forecast Since future cash flows to investors are tied to future earnings, it is intuitively appealing to value markets based on forecast price-to-earnings ratios. Our forecast price-to-earnings measure is based on our proprietary calculation, which employs consensus earnings data from consensus earnings forecasts as well as index weighting data from MSCI. The measure has a robust historical track record. Performance of Forecast P/E Factor Low Forecast P/E Portfolio (Gross) Low Forecast P/E Portfolio (Net) Source: FactSet Research System, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Forecast P/E-Based Portfolios Forecast P/E-Based Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 8

9 9BValuation: 2017 Price-to-Earnings Ratio Forecast (Cont d) Our forecasted P/E ratios are obtained by aggregating company-level data earnings data from FactSet Estimates using MSCI company weights. Over the years, forecast P/E ratios have consistently been among our model s strongest investment factors. Forecast 2017 P/E Ratios Turkey Hungary South Korea Pakistan U.A.E. Egypt Qatar China Average Poland Greece GOOD Brazil Taiwan Colombia Peru Czech Rep Thailand South Africa Mexico Malaysia Indonesia India Philippines Chile Source: FactSet Research Systems, MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 9

10 01B Valuation: Price-to-Earnings minus its 10 year average Some markets persistently trade at relatively high trailing price-to-earnings ratios, while others tend to trade at relatively low ratios. Over the past ten years, for example, trailing price-to-earnings ratios averaged 24x in India and 23x in the Philippines. In contrast, trailing price-to-earnings ratios averaged a mere 10x in Turkey 8x in Russia. To address these tendencies, we have introduced a relative valuation measure: A country s trailing price-to-earnings ratio relative its own 10-year average. Performance Using P/E minus its 10 year Average Low P/E vs 10 yr avg Portfolio (Gross) Low P/E vs 10 yr avg Portfolio (Net) Source: MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 32.Figure 7. Returns on Cap- Weighted vs. Trailing P/E-Based Portfolios Performance using P/E minus avg. Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 10

11 9BValuation: Price-to-Earnings minus its 10 year average (Cont d) Valuation: Price-to-Earnings minus its 10 year average Greece Colombia Mexico U.A.E. Egypt Taiwan South Korea Turkey Average Qatar Malaysia Russia Poland Pakistan Czech Rep Hungary Indonesia Thailand Chile Philippines South Africa Brazil China India Peru GOOD Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 11

12 Valuation: Dividend Yield In the country allocation process, systematically allocating to countries with high dividend yields (DYs) tends to lead to outperformance. The DY in this context is defined as the ratio of total dollar dividend payout over the previous 12 months relative to market capitalization. A high dividend yield can be considered as evidence that a market is undervalued. Additionally, it has been empirically shown that the compounding effect of dividend on a country s total return can have a material impact over long periods of time. Performance using DY Factor DY Portfolio (Gross) DY Portfolio (Net) Source: MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. DY-Based Portfolios Performance of DY Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 12

13 1BValuation: Dividend Yield (Cont d) The 23 emerging markets are ranked based on the relative attractiveness of dividend yields. Markets with high dividend yields are ranked above those with low yields. Valuation: Dividend Yield (%) Czech Rep Pakistan Russia Qatar U.A.E. Taiwan Malaysia Turkey South Africa Average Thailand Brazil Colombia Mexico GOOD Indonesia Chile Hungary Egypt Poland South Korea China Greece Peru Philippines India Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 13

14 21BGrowth: 6-Month Change in GDP Forecasts Gross Domestic Product GDP is the broadest measure of output generated by an economic system. This measure encompasses consumption, business investment, government spending and net exports. Changes in forecasts of GDP relative to the forecasts six-months ago tend to be a better indicator for country allocation than the absolute level of GDP growth. This measure takes the current year-ahead forecast of GDP and subtracts the forecast six months ago. Higher scores are assigned to those markets where GDP forecasts are being upgraded. Performance using the GDP Factor 6m change in GDP Forecasts Porfolio (Gross) 6m change in GDP Forecasts Porfolio (Net) Source: Consensus Economics, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. GDP Revision-Based Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) Performance using the GDP Factor Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: OECD, MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 14

15 31BGrowth: 6-Month Change in GDP Forecasts (Cont d) The 23 emerging markets are ranked from highest to lowest based on the changes to the year ahead GDP growth forecasts made over the last six months. Growth: Six-Month Changes to Forecasted GDP Growth (%) Turkey Czech Rep Malaysia Egypt Brazil Russia Hungary Poland Taiwan South Korea Thailand Chile China GOOD Average Greece South Africa Philippines Mexico Pakistan Indonesia Peru Colombia U.A.E. Qatar India Source: Consensus Economics, Page 15

16 41BGrowth: Terms-of-Trade Trend A country s terms of trade is defined as the ratio of its export price index to its import price index. An increase in the ratio improves a country s real income, which tends to stimulate domestic demand. Conversely, a decrease in the ratio hurts a country s real income and thereby tends to dampen domestic demand. The import and export price indexes used in the model are proprietary measures based on weighted averages of the global prices of agricultural products, energy, minerals, and manufactures (obtained from the IMF and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). For each country, the price weights are based on import and export composition data (obtained from the WTO). The terms-of-trade change is defined as the percentage change of the terms of trade over the previous 18 months. Performance of Terms-of-Trade Trend Term of Trade Change Porfolio (Gross) Term of Trade Change Porfolio (Net) Source: International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, Bureau of Economic Statistics, Bloomberg. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Terms of Trade-Based Portfolios Return Terms-of-Trade Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI,. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 16

17 51BGrowth: Terms-of-Trade Trend (Cont d) An individual country s terms of trade change is ranked against the EM average. Markets with higher terms-of-trade changes (as measured by the 18 month change in the ratio of export to import prices) are attractive relative to those markets with low or negative terms of trade changes. Terms-of-Trade Change Qatar Russia Colombia U.A.E. Peru Chile South Africa Average Indonesia Mexico Malaysia Greece Czech Rep Poland Hungary GOOD Philippines Brazil Taiwan China Thailand Turkey India South Korea Pakistan -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 17

18 61BRisk: Beta Beta measures both the volatility and correlation of each market relative to world returns based on the last 18 months of returns. If a market is more volatile than the world returns and has a high correlation with the world returns, it would have a high beta. Conversely, if a market is less volatile than the world returns and has a low correlation with world returns, it would have a low beta. Low beta markets are given higher scores on this factor and would have historically been associated with outperformance. This is a finding at odds with at least some versions of efficient market theory in which higher returns come from riskier investments. Performance of Beta Factor Beta Portfolio (Gross), Log Scale Beta Portfolio (Net), Log Scale Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Beta-Based Portfolios Return Beta Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI,. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 18

19 71BRisk: Beta (Cont d) Beta Factor Qatar Pakistan U.A.E. Malaysia Egypt Czech Rep Thailand Philippines Indonesia Taiwan India South Korea Average Hungary China GOOD Colombia Chile Peru Poland Russia Turkey Greece Mexico Brazil South Africa Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Page 19

20 81BRisk: Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation We calculate our own real effective exchange rate index as a weighted average of the CPI-adjusted exchange rates of each country with respect to its six largest trading partners. Performance of Real Exchange Rate Factor Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Porfolio (Gross) Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Porfolio (Net) Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Real Exchange Rate-Based Portfolios Return Real FX Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI,. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 20

21 91BRisk: Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation (Cont d) Our real exchange rate valuation factor is measured as the deviation, in percent, of the most recent level of a country s real exchange rate from its six-year moving average. Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Colombia Egypt Turkey Mexico Philippines Russia Greece Brazil Malaysia Peru Average Indonesia Hungary Poland Pakistan GOOD Qatar Chile U.A.E. Taiwan China South Korea Thailand Czech Rep South Africa India -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 21

22 02B Risk: Current Account as a percentage of GDP A country s current account balance is the difference between its income and its spending on consumption and investment. By definition, therefore, a country with a current account deficit spends in excess of its income. Of course, this is not always a bad thing, particularly if the excess spending is comprised of investments with attractive return prospects. However, substantial current account deficits are often associated with spending excesses that are not so benign. Consequently, we look at current account deficits as a warning sign, and we assign relatively low scores to those markets with the largest deficits (and, conversely, relatively high scores to those with the largest surpluses). Performance Using the Current Account Factor Current Account Portfolio (Gross), Log Scale Current Account Portfolio (Net), Log Scale Source: Bloomberg, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 32. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Current Account-Based Portfolios Performance Using the Current Account Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 22

23 91BRisk: Current Account as a percentage of GDP (Cont d) Risk: Current Account/GDP Taiwan Thailand South Korea U.A.E. Hungary Qatar Malaysia Russia China Average Czech Rep Greece Philippines Poland Brazil GOOD Chile India Indonesia Peru Mexico South Africa Colombia Egypt Pakistan Turkey -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Source: Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 23

24 Risk: Excess Domestic Credit Growth We define excess domestic credit growth as the 5-year change in domestic credit relative to GDP. Our research has shown that markets with the highest previous excess domestic credit growth are relatively risky and subsequently deliver the lowest relative returns. Consequently, markets with the highest relative DC/GDP growth are assigned the lowest scores (and vice-versa). Performance Using the Excess Domestic Credit Growth Factor Domestic Credit Portfolio (Gross), Log Scale Domestic Credit Portfolio (Net), Log Scale Source: Bloomberg, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 32. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Excess Domestic Credit Growth-Based Portfolios Performance Using the Domestic Credit Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: Bloomberg, Page 24

25 91BRisk: Excess Domestic Credit Growth (Cont d) Risk: Excess Domestic Credit Growth (%) South Africa Hungary Greece Philippines Egypt Czech Rep Poland Brazil Average South Korea GOOD Peru Malaysia Mexico Chile Pakistan Thailand Turkey U.A.E. India Qatar Source: Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 25

26 Risk: Change in Sovereign Spreads Sovereign spreads are used as barometers for measuring investor risk aversion. A declining spread implies a decline in risk aversion. The model s indicator is based on the decline of the spread over the previous 24 months. Performance of Sovereign Spreads Factor Sovereign Yield Spreads Portfolio (Gross) Sovereign Yield Spreads Portfolio (Net) Source: MSCI, Bloomberg,. See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Sovereign Spreads -Based Portfolios Sovereign Spread Portfolios Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI,. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 26

27 12BRisk: Change in Sovereign Spreads (Cont d) Sovereign Spread Change (Basis Points) Greece Egypt Brazil Russia South Africa Colombia Pakistan Turkey Average Indonesia Malaysia India GOOD Peru Mexico Hungary China Thailand Chile Philippines U.A.E. Poland Qatar South Korea Czech Rep Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 27

28 2 Interest Rates: Nominal Interest Rate Trend Changes in monetary policy are typically associated with changes in short-term policy rates (such as the Federal Funds rate in the U.S.). Rate increases are typically prompted by signs of overheating. Conversely, rate declines are prompted by signs of economic weakness. Changes in monetary policy impact economies with (as Milton Friedman observed) long and variable lags. However, when they ultimately arrive, the impacts are often powerful. Empirically, we have found a tendency for equities in countries with declining short-term interest rates to subsequently outperform equities in countries with increasing interest rates. Performance of Nominal Interest Rate Trend Low Nominal Interest Rate Portfolio (Gross) Low Nominal Interest Rate Portfolio (Net) Source: FactSet Research Systems, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 32. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Nominal Interest Rate Trend Portfolios Performance using Upward Company Revision Ratio Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return 1 (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: FactSet, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 28

29 32BInterest Rates: Nominal Interest Rate Change (Cont d) We measure to nominal interest rate changes as the difference between current short-term interest rates and their 24-month moving average. Interest Rates: Nominal Interest Rate Change (Percentage Points) Brazil Russia Colombia Indonesia Chile Hungary India Thailand Average South Africa Taiwan Greece Turkey Peru GOOD Poland South Korea Pakistan Malaysia Czech Rep U.A.E. China Qatar Philippines Mexico Egypt Source: FactSet Research Systems, Page 29

30 BSentiment/Momentum: One-Month Upward Company Revision Ratio Portfolio managers in the U.S. have successfully incorporated earnings forecast revisions into their stock selection processes. We have incorporated this into our country model by computing the number of companies with upward earnings forecast revisions over one month divided by the total number of companies with revisions. A number in excess of 50% implies that upgrades have exceeded downgrades. One-Month Company Revision Ratio Company Revision Portfolio (Gross), Log Scale Company Revision Portfolio (Net), Log Scale Source: FactSet Research Systems, MSCI,. See Important Disclosures on page 32. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. One-Month Upward Company Revision Ratio Portfolios Performance using Upward Company Revision Ratio Factor Annualized Returns (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return 1 (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: FactSet, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 30

31 32BSentiment/Momentum: One-Month Upward Company Revision Ratio (Cont d) In the chart below, a countries one-month upward company revision ratios are ranked against the developed-world average. Markets with high one-month upward company revision ratios are attractive relative to those markets with low one-month upward company revision ratios. Sentiment/Momentum: One-Month Upward Company Revision Ratio Peru Turkey Czech Rep Poland Russia Pakistan Taiwan China Egypt Thailand Chile Average Hungary U.A.E. GOOD Malaysia South Africa Philippines Indonesia India Brazil Mexico Qatar South Korea Colombia 0% 25% 50% 75% % Source: FactSet Research Systems, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 31

32 Sentiment/Momentum: Price Momentum Markets will sometimes look attractive on the basis of valuation factors yet fail to rise for extended periods of time. Sometimes, investors are reluctant to alter their exposures to a market until they are persuaded that a turnaround in market sentiment has occurred. To take the influence of market sentiment on performance into account, we use a price momentum indicator the one-year price return in local currency terms. Performance of Price Momentum Factor Price Momentum Portfolio (Gross) Price Momentum Portfolio (Net) Source: MSCI,, See Important Disclosures on page 28. Returns on Cap-Weighted vs. Price Momentum-Based Portfolios Annualized Returns Price Momentum Portfolio (US$) Return (%) Gross Return (%) Net Return (%) Returns are rounded to the nearest decimal and net returns are adjusted for transactions costs. Source: MSCI,. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 32

33 32BSentiment/Momentum: Price Momentum (Cont d) Our price momentum factor is an ad hoc way of incorporating technical analysis into a fundamentalsoriented asset allocation model. It can be viewed as a proxy for information known to market participants that is not captured fully by our model s factors. Price Momentum China Turkey Peru Chile Greece South Korea Brazil India Indonesia Poland Hungary Average GOOD Thailand Colombia Philippines Taiwan South Africa Malaysia Czech Rep Mexico Russia U.A.E. Egypt Qatar Pakistan -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% Source: MSCI, lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 33

34 Data Summary: February 2018 VALUATION FORECAST GROWTH INTEREST RATES Forecast 2018 P/E P/E minus 10 yr avg P/E Dividend Yield 6-Month Change in Terms of Trade Nom. Interest Rate Country % GDP Forecast, % Change, % minus 2 yr avg., % (lower is preffered) (lower is preffered) (higher is preffered) (higher is preffered) (higher is preffered) (lower is preffered) Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA MEXICO PERU CHINA INDIA INDONESIA MALAYSIA PAKISTAN PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN THAILAND CZECH REP EGYPT NA NA GREECE HUNGARY QATAR RUSSIA POLAND SOUTH AFRICA TURKEY U.A.E AVERAGE Source:, FactSet Research Systems, MSCI, Bloomberg, OECD All data is rounded to the nearest decimal or whole number. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 34

35 Data Summary: February 2018 Country RISK RISK MOMENTUM Beta Real Exch. Rate Current Account Excess Domestic Sovereign Spread Upward Company Price Momentum Overvaluation, % as a % of GDP Credit Growth, % Change, bps Revision, % YoY, % (lower is preffered) (lower is preffered) (higher is preffered) (lower is preffered) (lower is preffered) (higher is preffered) (higher is preffered) Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month Curr Month Prev Month BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA na na MEXICO PERU CHINA na na INDIA INDONESIA na na MALAYSIA PAKISTAN PHILIPPINES SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN na na NA NA THAILAND CZECH REP EGYPT GREECE na na HUNGARY QATAR RUSSIA na na POLAND SOUTH AFRICA TURKEY U.A.E AVERAGE Source:, FactSet Research Systems, MSCI, Bloomberg, OECD All data is rounded to the nearest decimal or whole number. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 35

36 A division of DCM Advisors, LLC February 7, BForecast P/E Ratio and Earnings Growth Rate Earnings Earnings Earnings P/E P/E P/E Growth (%) Growth (%) Growth (%) Country Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Colombia Czech Rep Denmark Egypt Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy NEG TO POS Japan Japan X-Financials Korea Malaysia Mexico Morocco Netherlands New Zealand Norway Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Russia Singapore South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UAE United Kingdom United States EAFE (Mkt. Wgt.) EAFE (Equal Wgt.) Emerging Mkts(Mkt. Wgt.) Emerging Mkts(Eq. Wgt.) Global (Mkt. Wgt) Global (Equal. Wgt) Data Sources and Methodology: These data are aggregates built from company-level data supplied by FactSet Research Systems and MSCI. According to FactSet Research System FactSet Research System EPS estimates are reported in local currency for most markets, where not available we have converted USD EPS into local terms. The P/E ratios and earnings growth rates are earnings-weighted aggregates of all companies covered by FactSet Research System estimates. We calendarize the data by assigning fiscal years ending during January-May to the previous calendar year. Growth rate and P/E calculations may include different sets of companies depending on data availability. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 36

37 Important Disclosures This material has been prepared and issued by DCM Advisors, LLC for distribution to market professionals and institutional investor clients only. This document has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security, commodity, futures contract or instrument or related derivative (hereinafter "instrument") or to participate in any trading strategy. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant had completed its own independent investigation of the instrument or trading strategy and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any prospectus, prospectus supplement, offering circular or memorandum describing such instrument or trading strategy. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. The securities discussed in this material may not be suitable or appropriate for all investors. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences of the transaction. You should consider this material among other factors in making an investment decision. This information is not intended to be provided and may not be used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where the provision or use thereof would be contrary to applicable laws, rules or regulations. Any securities referred to in this material may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, if not, may not be offered or sold absent an exemption therefrom. All investments are subject to the risk of loss, including the potential for significant loss, and it should not be assumed that any models or opinions incorporated herein will be profitable or will equal past performance. Further, the models do not represent actual trading, and interim volatility may be materially different within the time frame reflected in the charts. The performance figures represent outputs from a global allocation model, not an actual portfolio. The performance reflects the hypothetical performance of the model. The performance calculations do not represent the results of actual trading but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the model designed with the benefit of hindsight. The model s factor weightings are revised from time to time. The hypothetical results are then rerun to reflect the revised weightings. Therefore, the hypothetical calculations reflect the results that would have been realized if the model were to have been run according to current weightings. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations. There often are large differences between hypothetical performance and actual performance results. The actual performance results that could have been achieved by any investor in reliance on the model could be significantly different than the hypothetical performance shown, especially as the model does not indicate which securities to purchase or sell, nor does it include management and trading fees. The performance of the model assumes the recommended country weightings times the MSCI index return for each country (gross dividends). Past hypothetical performance should be not being taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance. Source: MSCI. The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI Intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an as is basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI and the MSCI Indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com Page 37