Big Currency Depreciations: What Happens Next?

Transcription

1 JUNE 2018 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY WHITEPAPER Big Currency Depreciations: What Happens Next? Leila Heckman, Ph.D., Founder John Mullin, Ph.D., Chief Strategist For More Information (917) A division of DCM Advisors, LLC.

2 Big Currency Depreciations: What Happens Next? -John Mullin Emerging market currencies have taken a beating this quarter, led by declines in the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Russian ruble, South African rand, and Turkish lira. According to the financial press, these declines reflect the impact of higher U.S. interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and global trade tensions. This note attempts to add a bit of perspective to these recent currency declines. In addition, the note provides some historical information about the performances of country equity markets following similarly substantial currency declines. Big Currency Depreciations in Q Nominal Exchange Rate* March 31, 2018 June 19, 2018 FX Depreciation Brazilian Real % Mexican Peso % Russian Ruble % South African Rand % Turkish Lira 3,954,945 4,738, % * Currency units per USD. Source: Bloomberg. Recent Currency Declines in Perspective Recent EM currency declines can be seen in perspective by viewing the past twenty years of the MSCI EM Currency Index (see chart below). This index tracks the returns to a portfolio of un-hedged emerging market money market investments. As such, the index reflects currency fluctuations as well as money market interest payments. From the perspective of the past twenty years, the index s recent decline (of roughly 5%) leaves it not far from its historic high. The index first neared this high in August After that, the index had two major swings: 1. The index declined roughly 12% between May 2013 and January This period began with Bernanke s May 2013 statement signaling the Fed s intention to taper its program of quantitative easing. 1

3 2. The index increased by roughly 20% between January 2016 and March This period began shortly after the Fed s first post-crisis rate hike (when the federal fund's target ceiling increased to 0.5% in December 2015). During the period, the Fed hiked the fund's rate ceiling five more times in December 2016, March 2017, June 2017, December 2017, and March What stands out here is that EM currencies performed poorly when tighter monetary policy was anticipated, but performed strongly during a two-year span when monetary policy was actually being tightened. Viewed from this perspective, it is somewhat puzzling to read commentaries that attribute recent EMs currency declines to tight Fed policy. After all, the markets have been digesting anticipated and actual rate hikes for at least five years now. Of course, it is not an easy matter to identify the source of currency movements in a particular month or quarter. That being said, however, it would appear that increased global trade tensions are a more likely culprit behind recent EM currency weakness MSCI Emerging Market Currency Return Index (Through June 27, 2018) May 2013: Bernanke's Taper Statement December 2015: Fed's First Post-Crisis Rate Hike Source: MSCI 50.0 Country Equity Returns Following Big Depreciations We now turn to the question: What happens next? What sort of USD returns do country equity markets produce in periods following big exchange rate depreciations? For this exercise, we define a big depreciation as one in which a country s real effective exchange rate depreciates by at least 10% over a three-month period. At the end of each month during , we identify all of the MSCI ACWI countries (both emerging and developed) that had big depreciation over 2

4 the previous quarter. We then group these countries equity markets into an equally weighted portfolio and compare the subsequent USD return performance of this depreciated currency portfolio to MSCI ACWI. 1 The subsequent return performances are calculated for over-lapping 3-month and 12-month holding periods. We also examine the return performance of a blended portfolio composed of 10% of the depreciated currency portfolio and 90% MSCI ACWI. Our main statistical findings are: 1. The depreciated currency portfolio generated an average return that was more than double the return to MSCI ACWI 2. The volatility of the depreciated currency portfolio was almost three times that of MSCI ACWI 3. The beta of the depreciated currency portfolio was The beta-adjusted return or alpha of the depreciated currency portfolio was substantially positive 5. Blending the depreciated currency portfolio with MSCI ACWI produces a portfolio with a higher risk-adjusted return than MSCI ACWI. Return Sta tistics -- 3-Month Holding Pe riods Portfolio of Countries w/ Depreciated Currencies (A) MSCI ACWI (B) Blend: 10% (A), 90% (B) Average 6.9% 2.8% 3.2% Standard Deviation 24.3% 8.6% 9.2% Beta vis-à-vis ACWI Alpha 3.0% 0.0% 0.3% Return Sta tistics Month Holding Pe riods Portfolio of Countries w/ Depreciated Currencies (A) MSCI ACWI (B) Blend: 10% (A), 90% (B) Average 24.5% 10.1% 11.6% Standard Deviation 45.7% 17.9% 19.1% Beta vis-à-vis ACWI Alpha 9.9% 0.0% 1.0% 1 To ensure an apples-to-apples comparison, we restrict our return analysis to periods when the depreciated currency portfolio has at least one member. 3

5 Conclusions Recent EM currency weakness is more likely the result of increased global trade tensions rather than apprehension about further Fed policy tightening On average, country equity markets outperform following big currency depreciations However, these markets also have high beta risk As a consequence, we would expect these markets to outperform should global trade tensions subside; otherwise, they may be vulnerable to further declines 4

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