Oil Search (OSH AU) APEC to provide key terms
|
|
- Ariel Sims
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 24 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 23 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$8.56 Valuation A$ 9.37 DCF (WACC 6.4%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.0%) 12month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index GICS sector Low Energy Market cap A$m 13,045 30day avg turnover A$m 34.2 Number shares on issue m 1,524 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue m 1, , , ,757.1 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x OSH AU vs ASX 100, & rec history APEC to provide key terms Key points OSH announced 3Q production and sales metrics with little surprise to our expectations. Outperformance of PNG LNG, which annualised ~9mtpa over 3Q, resulted in upgrades to production guidance whilst unit cost guidance was narrowed. Management have changed tone on a likelihood of FEED at the APEC meeting in midnov, rather expecting agreement of key terms. Event OSH released its 3Q18 result, reporting key production and sales metrics in line with our expectation. The company also revised 2018 guidance, with production towards the upperend of previous guidance, whilst production costs towards the middle. Impact Upgrading guidance: OSH have raised the bottom end of 2018 production guidance to 2526mmboe (Macq: 25.6mmboe) due to the performance of PNG LNG over the quarter. As a result, production costs have been narrowed to US$ /boe (Macq: US$11.51/boe) and the middle of the previous guidance. Capex has been lowered to the bottomend of guidance. Key agreement terms at APEC: OSH s comments have shifted slightly regarding the Nov 17 APEC meeting towards agreeing key terms between the PRL 3 (PNG LNG) and PRL 15 (Papua LNG) parties. OSH had previously indicated the parties were targeting a FEED decision. However, with the state negotiating team working on multiple projects simultaneously including Wafi Golpu we believe that the final terms have yet to be settled. Given the commentary by the PNG Government of wanting to make an announcement at APEC, we would assume it is more likely that key terms around taxes, royalties, and domgas will be announced, with FEED to come shortly after. Earnings and target price revision No change to TP. CY18 EPS increases 5% due to higher production. EPS lower from CY2019+ <1.5%. Price catalyst Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October 2018 (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in AUD) 12month price target: A$9.40 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: APEC meeting (17 Nov), oil price, PNG LNG expansion FEED. Action and recommendation Retain Outperform: The quarterly was of little surprise, with production and sales figures in line with our expectation. A FEED decision looks slightly delayed from the initial expectation for an agreement around the APEC meeting (1718 November), however, we believe there could be potential for the PNG LNG JV to initially move ahead with a FEED decision on a single train with Papau to come later. More broadly, with the project featuring prominently in Exxon s growth plans, and its potential 3040 year life, we see even a sixmonth delay as having very little impact on overall economics. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Analysis OSH reported third quarter results with little surprise to our expectations. All metrics were up significantly on the previous quarter as production continued to build following the PNG earthquake, which impacted volumes over 1Q and 2Q. Fig 1 OSH quarterly results v Macq expectations 3Q18e 3Q18a Delta 2Q18a Change Production mmboe % % Sales " % % Revenue US$m % % Capex " (21%) 84 63% Source: Macquarie Research, October 2018 Production at PNG LNG reached record levels over the quarter, with the two trains annualising ~8.9mtpa. The project reached an annualised daily rate of ~9.2mtpa in September. Continued outperformance at PNG LNG has resulted in OSH upgrading production guidance towards the upper end of the previous expectations. Key changes to 2018 guidance included: o Production mmboe Macq: 25.6mmboe o Unit production costs US$ /boe Macq: US$11.51/boe o Capital expenditure US$425475m Macq: US$451m Fig 2 PNG LNG achieved its highest quarterly annualised rate ~9.0mtpa. Fig 3 Oil production continues to rampup, but still remains ~52% below preearthquake levels. mtpa 9.5 mbbls 1, Nameplate capacity (6.9mpta) 1, Foundation Contracts Above Contract Medium Term Contracts Existing Nameplace Capacity Kutubu PDL 2 Moran PDL 2 Moran PDL 5 Gobe Main SE Gobe NW Moran PDL 6 Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October 2018 Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October 2018 The key concern remains the timing for FEED decision for PNG LNG expansion and Papua LNG development. OSH highlighted at the 2Q result that the company was targeting FEED decision later this year, which had been expected around the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting held in PNG over the 17 and 18 November. Wording in the quarterly suggests that rather than a FEED decision around the meeting, the PNG LNG JV and Papua LNG JV would be agreeing to key terms around Papua LNG s access to existing PNG LNG infrastructure, and fiscal terms with the State Negotiating Team (SNT). Our model already factors in a delay to the startup of production from PNG LNG, with first gas expected to commence in 3Q24. OSH have highlighted development cost spending to be US$3.0bn (net) over , funded with 70% debt and 30% equity. 24 October
3 Fig 4 OSH net equity free cash flow forecast for PNG LNG and Papua LNG expansion trains. We estimate the project to have an IRR of ~22%, compared to ~8.5% for Browse brownfield development. Fig 5 Accounting for a US$3bn (net) development across the two projects, we estimate an IRR of ~18.5%. US$m 1,500 1, (500) (1,000) US$m 1,500 1, (500) (1,000) (1,500) (1,500) Revenue Operating Costs Royalties/Tax Revenue Operating Costs Royalties/Tax Capex Financing Cumulative FCF Capex Financing Cumulative FCF Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October 2018 Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October 2018 Fig 6 Through rolling forward our OSH model, we see upside towards ~A$10.40/sh, before derisking opportunities at PNG and Alaska. Fig 7 With PNG LNG continuing to generate significant FCF, we see the company being net cash by 2023 (under the base business). With Alaska and PNG expansion, gearing is expected to remain >30% by A$/sh Gearing Ratio (ND/E) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% (10%) (20%) Existing Business Expansion Train Scenario Current 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year Implied Valuation Expansion Train + Alaska Scenario Source: Macquarie Research, October 2018 Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October October
4 Fig 8 Financials Oil Search (OSHAU) Outperform Share Price: A$8.14 Shares: 1,523.6m Profit & Loss 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Price Assumptions 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Sales Revenue US$m ,388 1,512 1,789 1,757 AUD/USD c Add Other Income US$m Oil Price (Brent) US$/bbl Total Revenue US$m ,456 1,532 1,806 1,774 Less Operating Costs US$m (167) (222) (342) (389) (364) (368) Production 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Less Corporate/Other Costs US$m (32) (21) (62) (53) (43) (44) Natural Gas bcf EBITDAX US$m ,052 1,090 1,399 1,362 Crude mmbbl Less Exploration Expensed US$m (12) (42) (36) (55) (69) (56) Condensate mmbbl EBITDA US$m ,016 1,035 1,330 1,306 LNG mt Less Dep. & Amort. US$m (108) (175) (331) (283) (324) (336) Total Production mmboe less Other NonCash Costs US$m (26) (24) (49) (46) (46) (47) EBIT US$m mmboe Less Net Interest US$m (100) (110) (195) (210) (226) (209) 60.0 PreTax Operating Profit US$m Less Tax Expense US$m (41) (114) (139) (155) (228) (221) 50.0 Net Operating Profit US$m add NonRecurring Items US$m 40.0 Reported Profit US$m Adjusted Profit US$m EPS (Adjusted) Acps EPS Grow th % 689% 2,367% 183% 13% 48% (2%) DPS (Ordinary & Special) Uscps DPS (Ordinary & Special) Acps Franking % EFPOWA Shares on Issue m 1,524 1,524 1,524 1,524 1,524 1, Gas Crude Condensate LPG LNG Cashflow Analysis 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Reserves 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Cash From Operations US$m ,478 1,616 1,832 1,782 Natural Gas bcf Less Operating Costs US$m (304) (229) (362) (532) (442) (411) Oil mmbbl Less Interest Paid US$m (101) (108) (199) (209) (222) (204) Total 2P Reserves mmboe Less Tax Paid US$m (50) (46) (60) (96) (83) (78) Contingent Resources mmbbl Gross Cashflow From Operations US$m ,085 1,088 Total Reserves & Resources mmboe Less Development & Exploration US$m (137) (305) (241) (442) (483) (621) Less PP&E US$m (22) (38) (22) 2P Reserve Life years Less Acq./Inv. US$m (416) (2) (416) EV / 1P Reserves US$/boe Add Divestment/Other US$m EV / 2P Reserves US$/boe Less Dividends US$m (84) (30) (99) (114) (205) (195) EV / Total Resources US$/boe Add Equity Movements/Other US$m (5) (11) (5) Add Debt Movements US$m (163) (184) (314) (350) (390) (412) Increase in Cash US$m (603) (571) 7 (61) Net Debt at Year End (Cash) US$m 3,180 2,964 2,744 2,964 2,567 2,296 Balance Sheet 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Per Barrel Statistics 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Cash & Cash Eq. US$m , Sales Revenue/boe Current Assets US$m , EBIT/boe Fixed Assets US$m 9,657 9,729 9,225 9,729 9,788 9,988 Profit/boe Total Assets US$m 10,359 10,501 10,512 10,501 10,548 10,687 Opex/boe Current Liabilities US$m DDA/boe Total Liabilities US$m 5,430 5,342 5,575 5,342 5,087 4,926 Cash Flow /boe Shareholder Equity US$m 4,929 5,160 4,938 5,160 5,461 5,760 Ratio Analysis 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e WACC of 6.4% ND/ND+E % 39.2% 36.5% 35.7% 36.5% 32.0% 28.5% Producing Assets US$m A$ps % EBIT Interest Cover x 2.2 x 4.5 x 3.1 x 3.4 x 4.3 x 4.5 x Kutubu PDL Dividend Payout Ratio % 38.5% 40.0% 6.3% 6.8% 9.5% 8.8% Moran PDL 2/ ROA % 2.1% 4.6% 6.2% 6.7% 9.1% 8.7% Gobe Main/SE Gobe ROE % 1.6% 5.2% 6.3% 6.8% 9.5% 8.8% Hides GTE ROIC % 1.4% 4.3% 5.7% 6.3% 8.4% 8.1% PNG LNG Train 1 & 2 risked 100% 6, Effective Tax Rate % 34.2% 30.4% 31.5% 31.3% 31.1% 30.8% Developing/Appraisal Assets EBITDA Margin % 65.9% 75.6% 75.8% 72.1% 78.2% 77.5% Papua LNG Trains 1 & 2 (Elk/Antelope) risked 75% EBIT Margin % 39.8% 50.6% 45.8% 46.7% 53.6% 52.5% PNG LNG Train 3 (Accel. Gas, P'nyang) risked 75% Free Cash Flow US$m (348) (101) Alaska Oil Project risked 65% Discovered Gas in PNG risked 25% Valuation 1H18a 2H18e 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Mananda risked 25% EV/EBITDAX Ratio x 16.7 x 8.3 x 10.5 x 11.1 x 8.7 x 8.9 x Alaska Oil Project (High Case) risked 50% EV/DACF Ratio x 29.1 x 12.3 x 16.0 x 17.3 x 13.2 x 13.3 x Exploration Upside P/E Ratio x 56.7 x 17.2 x 27.4 x 26.6 x 18.5 x 19.3 x Exploration Portfolio P/CEPS Ratio x 20.1 x 9.0 x 11.5 x 12.6 x 9.9 x 10.2 x Financial Assets FCF Yield % (7.7%) 5.5% 7.0% (1.0%) 6.4% 4.9% Cash & Investments Dividend Yield % 0.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% Debt (132) (0.12) Drilling Rigs Sensitivities (Adjusted Earnings) NPV 2017a 2018e 2019e 2020e Capitalised G&A (279) (0.25) Oil Price (+US$1/bbl) US$m Risked NPV 9, delta Share Price Prem/(Disc) to NPV (0.06) % 2.5% 0.4% 3.1% 3.3% Core NPV per Share (A$) 7.71 Risked NPV per Share (A$) 9.37 Unrisked NPV per Share (A$) Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October October
5 Fig 9 NAV Breakdown Oil Search Valuation Producing Assets Interest Unrisked Unrisked Risk Risked Risked USD/boe Aps Aps % NPV Sensitivity (mmboe) (A$m) (mmboe) (A$m) Risked Unrisked ($10) Base +$10 PNG Kutubu PDL 2 60% % % PNG Moran PDL 2 60% % % PNG Moran PDL 5 41% % % PNG SE Gobe 26% % % PNG Gobe Main/Saunders 10% % % PNG Hides GTE 100% % % PNG PNG LNG Trains 1 & 2 29% 478 6, % 478 6, % Total Producting Assets 505 6, , % Development Assets PNG Papua LNG Trains 1 & 2 (Elk/Antelope) 18% 237 1,264 75% % PNG PNG LNG Train 3 (Accel. Gas, P'nyang) 29% % % USA Alaska Oil Project (Base Case) 26% % % Total Development Assets 600 2, , % Appraisal Upside PNG Muruk 29% 190 1,562 50% % USA Alaska Oil Project (High Case) 26% % % PNG Discovered Gas in PNG 100% 287 1,415 25% % PNG Mananda 71% % % Total Appraisal Upside 537 3, , % Exploration Upside PNG Greater Muruk Prospective (Karoma) 38% % % PNG Antelope South1 18% % % PNG Kalangar1 (PPL 339) 35% % % Total Exploration Upside 510 1, % Financial & Corporate Cash & Investments % Corporate Debt/Vessel Finance Lease (132) (132) (0.12) (0.12) (1%) (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) PNG LNG Project Debt (Included in PNG LNG NPV Equity Valuation) (3,081) (2.71) (2.71) (29%) (2.73) (2.71) (2.73) Antelope LNG Project Debt (Included in Antelope LNG NPV Equity Valuation) Drilling Rigs % Corporate Overheads (279) (279) (0.25) (0.25) (3%) (0.25) (0.25) (0.25) Total Financial and Corporate % Overall NPV 2,152 mmboe 10,634 USDm % Core NPV per Share (A$) Risked NPV per Share (A$) 1, Unrisked NPV per Share (A$) 1, Ordinary Shares on Issue (m) 1,523.6 Exchange Rate WACC (Posttax) 6.4% Share Price Price Premium/(Discount) to NPV (13.1%) Proportion of NAV from LNG 67% Market Capitalisation 12,402 Source: OSH, Macquarie Research, October October
6 Macquarie Quant View The Quant View page below has been derived from models that are developed and maintained by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie. The models are not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on Oil Search. The strongest style exposure is Growth, indicating this stock has good historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both top and bottom line items. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. 123/615 Global rank in Energy % of BUY recommendations 43% (6/14) Number of Price Target downgrades 5 Number of Price Target upgrades 4 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Energy) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Beach Energy 1.2 Beach Energy Woodside Petroleum 1.1 Woodside Petroleum Oil Search Caltex Australia Oil Search Caltex Australia Origin Energy 0.5 Origin Energy % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Beach Energy Woodside Petroleum Oil Search Caltex Australia Beach Energy Woodside Petroleum Oil Search Caltex Australia Origin Energy 0.1 Origin Energy % 50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. EV/EBITDA FY0 Price to Book NTM Price to Book FY1 Price to Book LTM Earnings Certainty (NTM) Momentum 6 Month Turnover(USD) 125 Day Turnover (USD) 250 Day Negatives Positives 15% 15% 19% 15% 23% 22% 22% 26% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/615) Percentile relative to market(/355) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Quant. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 24 October
7 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield, which is currently around 9%. Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from 10% to +10% Underperform expected return <10% Mazi Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from 10% to +10% Underperform expected return <10% Macquarie Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 September 2018 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.56% 59.51% 45.05% 46.88% 67.86% 46.70% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.70% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.20% 28.92% 37.36% 47.70% 25.00% 42.73% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.04% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 15.23% 11.57% 17.58% 5.42% 7.14% 10.57% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 0.47% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) OSH AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, October month target price methodology OSH AU: A$9.40 based on a DCF methodology Companyspecific disclosures: OSH AU: Macquarie Group Limited together with its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of the equity securities of Oil Search Ltd. MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates has provided Oil Search Ltd with investment advisory services in the past 12 months, for which it received compensation. A Macquarie analyst(s) involved with the preparation of this research has, in the past 12 months, visited material operations of Oil Search Ltd. The company furnished local transportation as part of this site visit, which was authorized in adherence with Macquarie policy requirements. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 11Oct2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Aug2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Jul2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Apr2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Mar2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Feb2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Feb2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Jan2018 OSH AU Outperform A$ Dec2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Dec2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Nov2017 OSH AU Neutral A$ Oct2017 OSH AU Neutral A$ Oct2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Aug2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Jun2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Apr2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Feb2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Feb2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ October
8 This publication was disseminated on 23 October 2018 at 13:41 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management 24Jan2017 OSH AU Outperform A$ Dec2016 OSH AU Outperform A$ Oct2016 OSH AU Outperform A$ Aug2016 OSH AU Outperform A$ Jan2016 OSH AU Outperform A$ Nov2015 OSH AU Outperform A$9.00 Target price risk disclosures: OSH AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and ChiX Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposittaking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 24 October
Oil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationPlatinum Asset Management
AUSTRALIA PTM AU Price (at 06:10, 11 Jul 2016 GMT) Neutral A$5.52 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 5.19 12-month target A$ 5.36 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationIOOF. Positive flows in 1Q17. FUM and Net Flows for September Qtr Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Oct 2016.
AUSTRALIA IFL AU Price (at 06:35, 26 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$8.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 8.74 12-month target A$ 9.00 12-month TSR % +14.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationQBE Insurance. QBE ANZ performance: LMI vs. Excl. LMI (A$m) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 16. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSG Fleet Group. Another UK acquisition. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationHorizon Oil Gas commercialisation progressing Event
AUSTRALIA HZN AU Price (at 09:23, 31 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$0.30 Volatility index High 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +66.7 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.1%) 0.70
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationBHP Billiton. Mad Dog 2 gets FID AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 12:49, 02 Dec 2016 GMT) A$25.02/ 13.39/R234.60 Valuation A$ 20.74/ 12.25/R217.81 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%,
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationOil Search A lot to like about current operations
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 08:50, 24 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$6.60 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 8.60 12-month TSR % +30.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.0%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.1%) 9.95
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationRyman Healthcare. Arrested development NZ$9.60 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
NEW ZEALAND RYM NZ Price (at 6:, 19 May 216 GMT) Outperform NZ$9.6 Valuation NZ$ 1.5 - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.8, ERP 7.%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.%) 12-month target NZ$ 11. 12-month TSR % +16.5 Volatility Index Low
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 4:13, 31 Jan 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.6 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.91 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +19.1 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOrigin Energy & Santos S&P moving the goal posts
AUSTRALIA Origin Energy funding picture Source: Macquarie Research, November 2012 Santos funding picture Source: Macquarie Research, November 2012 6 November 2012 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationDoray Minerals. Mine life upside at Andy Well A$0.44 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA DRM AU Price (at 5:28, 22 Jun 215 GMT) Outperform A$.44 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.9, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).8 12-month target A$.8 12-month TSR % +81.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 28 May 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.30 Valuation NZ$ 7.29 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +17.6 Volatility
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationAlumina. Multiple tailwinds take hold A$1.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AWC AU Price (at 05:10, 08 Jan 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.88 Valuation A$ 1.49 - DCF (WACC 11.2%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.2%) 12-month target A$ 2.10 12-month TSR % +18.2 Volatility
More informationMonash IVF Group. Share losses compound pain A$1.40 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA MVF AU Price (at 05:10, 25 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.40 Valuation A$ 1.80 - DCF (WACC 1.8%, beta 1.1, ERP, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 1.80 12-month TSR % +33.8 Volatility Index
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Event Valuation A$ month target A$ 5.20
AUSTRALIA VOC AU Price (at 05:10, 22 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$4.81 Valuation A$ 5.02 - DCF (WACC 7.7%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.20 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 17 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.88 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.96 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +14.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More information