Seismic (and volcanic) Risk
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1 Master Degree Programme in Physics - UNITS Physics of the Earth and of the Environment Seismic (and volcanic) Risk FABIO ROMANELLI Department of Mathematics & Geosciences romanel@units.it
2 the road to (earthquake) safety...
3 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output...
4 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output...
5 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output...
6 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output...
7 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output... Mitigate the difference...
8 Response spectra Building Response ~ Mass on a Leaf Spring M M M + W/ ~5% Damping ( ) The Free Oscillation Figure 1. The response-spectrum value is the peak motion (displacement, velocity, or acceleration) of a damped single-degree of freedom harmonic oscillator (with a particular damping and resonant period) subjected to a prescribed ground motion.
9 Response spectra Building Response ~ Mass on a Leaf Spring M M M + W/ ~5% Damping ( ) The Free Oscillation Figure 1. The response-spectrum value is the peak motion (displacement, velocity, or acceleration) of a damped single-degree of freedom harmonic oscillator (with a particular damping and resonant period) subjected to a prescribed ground motion. Acceleration Time Response spectrum (SA) Natural period of vibration Input Input motion acceleration
10 Response spectra Building Response ~ Mass on a Leaf Spring M M M + W/ ~5% Damping ( ) The Free Oscillation Figure 1. The response-spectrum value is the peak motion (displacement, velocity, or acceleration) of a damped single-degree of freedom harmonic oscillator (with a particular damping and resonant period) subjected to a prescribed ground motion. Acceleration Time Response spectrum (SA) Natural period of vibration Input Input motion acceleration
11 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output ,000 Kashmir 05 Bam 03 Bhuj 01 10,000 Indonesia Armenia 98 adjusted for increase population 1906 San Francisco actual deaths LAScenario 08 Deaths 100 Greece 99 Northridge 94 Kobe04 Italy Cost in billions of 2005 dollars Earthquake fatalities versus repair costs in 2005 US$ Bilham, The seismic future of cities, Bull Earthquake Eng. Roughly updated with help of Bilham, 2010 (Personal communication)
12 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output ,000 Kashmir 05 Bam 03 Bhuj 01 Armenia 98 10,000 Indonesia Sichuan 08 M=7.9 adjusted for increase population 1906 San Francisco actual deaths LAScenario 08 Deaths 100 Greece 99 Northridge 94 Aquila 09 M=6.3 Kobe04 Italy Cost in billions of 2005 dollars Earthquake fatalities versus repair costs in 2005 US$ Bilham, The seismic future of cities, Bull Earthquake Eng. Roughly updated with help of Bilham, 2010 (Personal communication)
13 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output... Haiti 10 M= ,000 Kashmir 05 Bam 03 Bhuj 01 Armenia 98 10,000 Indonesia 06 Qinghai 10 M= Sichuan 08 M=7.9 adjusted for increase population 1906 San Francisco actual deaths LAScenario 08 Deaths 100 Chile 10 M=8.8 Greece 99 Northridge 94 Aquila 09 M=6.3 Kobe04 Italy Cost in billions of 2005 dollars Earthquake fatalities versus repair costs in 2005 US$ Bilham, The seismic future of cities, Bull Earthquake Eng. Roughly updated with help of Bilham, 2010 (Personal communication)
14 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output... Haiti 10 M= ,000 Kashmir 05 Bam 03 Bhuj 01 Armenia 98 10,000 Indonesia 06 Qinghai 10 M= Sichuan 08 M=7.9 Japan 11 M=9.0 adjusted for increase population 1906 San Francisco actual deaths LAScenario 08 Deaths 100 Chile 10 M=8.8 Greece 99 Northridge 94 Aquila 09 M=6.3 Kobe04 Italy Cost in billions of 2005 dollars Earthquake fatalities versus repair costs in 2005 US$ Bilham, The seismic future of cities, Bull Earthquake Eng. Roughly updated with help of Bilham, 2010 (Personal communication)
15 the road to (earthquake) safety... Know the input - Bound the output... Haiti 10 M= ,000 Kashmir 05 Bam 03 Bhuj 01 Armenia 98 10,000 Indonesia 06 Qinghai 10 M= Sichuan 08 M=7.9 Japan 11 M=9.0 adjusted for increase population 1906 San Francisco actual deaths LAScenario 08 Deaths 100 Chile 10 M=8.8 Greece 99 Northridge 94 Aquila 09 M=6.3 Kobe04 Italy Cost in billions of 2005 dollars Earthquake fatalities versus repair costs in 2005 US$ Bilham, The seismic future of cities, Bull Earthquake Eng. Roughly updated with help of Bilham, 2010 (Personal communication) Mitigate the difference...
16 Losses from great natural disasters... US$ bn economic losses (2005 values) insured losses (2005 values) trend of economic losses trend of insured losses Losses from great natural disasters (far exceeding 100 deaths or US$ 100 m in losses), Smolka, Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective, Phil. Trans. R. Soc.
17 Some basic definitions: Seismic Hazard: describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake related phenomena, such as ground shaking, fault rupture or soil liquefaction. Seismic Risk: probability of occurrence of these consequences. Reiter, 1990
18 Some basic definitions Seismic Hazard: any physical phenomenon (e.g. shaking) associated with an earthquake that may cause an adverse effect on human activity. Seismic Risk: a probability that social or economic consequences will exceed a specified value. Anderson, 2006
19 Some basic definitions Seismic Hazard: a physical effect associated with an earthquake, such as ground shaking, that MAY produce adverse effects. Seismic Risk: the probability that consequences of an earthquake, such as structural damage, will equal or exceed specified values in a specified period of time. Ventura, 2006
20 Hazard, Risk & Vulnerability Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability
21 Hazard, Risk & Vulnerability Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability Nature decided, and can be assessed
22 Hazard, Risk & Vulnerability Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability Nature decided, and can be assessed Man decided, and can be reduced
23 Hazard, Risk & Vulnerability Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability Nature decided, and can be assessed Man decided, and can be reduced R = H i,p i,c i set of i-events with possible adverse consequences associated probabilities of their occurrence associated intolerable consequences
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