Premium Drivers. A quarterly motor insurance savings index by comparethemarket.com

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1 Premium Drivers A quarterly motor insurance savings index by comparethemarket.com December 2015

2 Introduction Motor insurance headlines have made for fairly grim reading in the last few months. Premiums are going up across the board and are showing no signs of slowing down. The AA concluded in its most recent insurance premium report - Q that motor insurance premiums were still rising, with another sharp rise in Q3 adding 26 to the average quote. The association found that year on year average premiums have risen by 9.2%, or 48, over the last 12 months 1. The quarterly and annual rise is also affirmed by the ABI 2 and by comparethemarket. com s own motor insurance data and recent Premium Drivers reports 3. The seventh Premium Drivers report from comparethemarket.com, which analyses the difference between the cheapest and average 4 motor premiums, adds to the wave of opinion that motor insurance prices are rising. Over the last quarter, from the beginning of September to the end of November 2015, cheapest premiums, averaged across all age groups, have risen by 50 5, going from to a spike of 9%. Part of the rising cost of motor insurance is the introduction of the hike in Insurance Premium Tax from 6% to 9.5%, which came into effect on 1 November this year. comparethemarket.com estimates that the increase in Insurance Premium Tax will add around 1.8bn of costs to insurance products purchased by UK consumers. This equates to around 68 per household. The promise of falling premiums for young drivers, driven by the anticipation of increased competition amongst insurers and highlighted in the last Premium Drivers report, has not yet materialised. In fact, young drivers are going to be the worst hit by the increase. Before the hike, in October, under 25 year olds were already paying more on average than all other age groups for their car insurance. As a result of the IPT increase, their premiums have risen by 26 immediately. However, it is not all doom and gloom for UK motorists. The Government s crackdown on the fraud in motor insurance, announced in the Spending Review and Autumn Statement in November 6, is positive. Having taken with one hand with the Insurance Premium Tax hike, the Chancellor is aiming to give back with the other. It will be interesting to see if the estimated saving of between 40 and 50 per policy is really passed on to motorists in the medium term. In addition, an occasional paper Encouraging consumers to act at renewal: Evidence from field trials in the home and motor insurance markets 7 - published by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) on 3 December, alongside a consultation paper on increasing transparency and engagement at renewal 8, may bring about a significant change in the way that motor insurance renewal documents are displayed to customers. The result of these papers may well be that motor insurers will have to display last year s premium on their renewal documents, which should help combat inertia at the point of renewal and help motorists switch more regularly and save money. Whatever the case, any initiative that discourages reliance on consumer inertia will be a welcome change for insurance customers. Improving the level of consumer engagement should help to improve competition in the renewal market and allow customers to make informed choices when it comes to these significant financial decisions. So whilst both initiatives will undoubtedly take a while to bed-in/ be implemented, combating whiplash and increasing transparency may be some light at the end of tunnel for beleaguered motorists. Both initiatives should, in principle, help to bring greater competition in the market and drive premiums down See June and September versions of comparethemarket.com s Premium Drivers reports 4 The average price is calculated by taking the top five cheapest motor insurance quotes on comparethemarket.com, across all age groups See lower motor insurance costs section:

3 The Savings Variable The Premium Drivers Index analyses the monthly percentage difference or the savings variable between the cheapest and average quote across all age groups. This is tracked throughout the year and compared quarter on quarter. The savings variable tells us something about current and historic prices, it also provides insight into the motor insurance sector. It highlights cyclical trends and allows comparethemarket.com to make statistic-driven predictions on the future direction of the motor insurance market. If the difference between the cheapest and the average price is narrowing, it is a contracting market; if the price disparities are widening, then it is a dispersing market. Key Statistics Savings variable expands marginally by 0.4% over the quarter as average prices are ratcheted up Competition falling despite rising prices 16.2% difference between cheapest and average price - so no downward pressure being applied to premiums at present Insurance Premium Tax hike and customer inertia helping to drive up average prices comparethemarket.com s Premium Drivers research has found that the savings variable has grown marginally since the last quarter, expanding by 0.4% from 15.8% in June-August to 16.2% on average between September and November. This increase is mirrored in the higher prices across the board for drivers. In addition, the rise in the savings variable reflects the seasonal uptick in premiums that we see in the last quarter of every year since the Premium Drivers records began 9. Simon McCulloch, Director of Insurance, comparethemarket.com, comments: The savings variable was likely to remain flat or to rise steadily as competition does not appear to be increasing, despite the fact that we are in a hard market where premiums are rising. In this time of rising prices you would normally expect price competition to increase, but it may be that there is a herd mentality amongst insurers, who are all steadily increasing their premiums in line with the market and, as such, consumers who auto-renew in particular may start to see some significant price hikes at the point of renewal. 9 September

4 Savings variable across all age groups in : Month Savings variable % December 16.5 January 15.4 February 15.0 March 14.7 April 14.6 May 14.2 June 14.6 July 14.7 August 14.8 September 16.7 October 16.9 November 17.1 December 17.1 January 16.4 February 16.2 March 16.0 April 16.2 May 16.1 June 15.7 July 15.8 August 15.9 September 16.0 October 16.6 November

5 Premium Drivers - Savings variable Savings Variable Cheapest price (average P1) Average price (average P1-5) % % % 16.00% % % % % Sept 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec

6 What s the cost? Key Statistics Cheapest premiums across age groups are the highest they ve been for at least 3 years, standing at in November up 90 year on year Average or auto-renewal premiums cost more on average than cheapest or shop around policies Cost difference between cheapest and average motor insurance hit highest quarterly point in history of Premium Drivers Under 25 year old drivers save by finding cheapest prices Cheapest premiums for under 25 year olds hits 1000 average for first time since February 2013 The cost difference between the cheapest and average premiums in the UK is at its largest point since September 2012, the point at which the Premium Drivers report started to track motor data. It is highly likely that the price difference between the cheapest and average motor insurance policy has not been as high as it currently stands for a lot longer, but at the very least it hasn t been higher for three years. The difference between the cheapest, or shop around, premium and the average or automatic renewal motor insurance policy stands at per motorist. The reason behind this surge in the cost of the savings variable can be attributed in part to the increase in Insurance Premium Tax, the falling competition in the market and be set against backdrop of rising prices. Over the last quarter, the price of cheapest motor insurance premiums, blended across all age groups, has risen by to The average premium has risen by almost to comparethemarket.com expects motor premiums to continue to rise in 2015 as the savings variable, its tracker of price competition, has continued to expand gradually, showing little downward pressure on prices in the short term. For younger drivers, prices are escalating, particularly for average premiums. Even if under 25 year old drivers shop around they are likely to pay the highest point since February The high cost of insurance for young drivers may be slightly offset for savvy shoppers, as under 25 year olds currently stand to save an average of 236 by shopping around for their insurance whilst those pay an average price pay

7 Cost difference between the cheapest and average premiums Cheapest price Average price Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sept 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sept 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul Simon McCulloch observes: The cost of motor insurance at the moment is not where most consumers would want to see it. Having enjoyed several years of falling prices, premiums are rising sharply. This has not been helped by the recent hike in Insurance Premium Tax, passed more or less directly onto motorists. In this kind of market it is utterly essential people search out the best deals for their car insurance by automatically renewing you could well needlessly be spending hundreds of pounds extra. Young drivers are often at the sharp end of price rises and this cycle of price hikes is no exception. Telematics policies may offer a cheaper alternative to some of these hefty premiums, but only for those drivers who are willing to have their driving monitored. The only really good news for drivers at present is the prolonged slump in the price of oil, which should help to drive petrol prices down further, to well below 1 per litre with any luck, and relieve the pockets of motorists. At the very least, the falling price of petrol at the pumps should help offset, at least in a small way, the additional pain that these higher insurance prices may bring. 7

8 Cheapest/Average price differential December 2013 to November Month Price differential ( ) December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November

9 The window of biggest savings? Three weeks before renewal Key Statistics UK drivers lose 3.4 billion a year by delaying motor insurance premium renewals 23% of drivers wait until at least the day before the renewal deadline to switch premiums 326 annual saving by switching motor insurance premium three weeks before renewal date Nearly a quarter of motorists (23%) wait until the day their motor insurance policy expires before switching their motor policy, according to the latest research by comparethemarket.com. By delaying until the very last minute, drivers are missing out on an average saving of 326, equating to an overall cost of 3.4 billion a year % of drivers change their motor insurance policy on the day of renewal or the day before. However, what consumers are possibly not aware of is that this is the most expensive time to switch within the renewal period. The average cheapest click-through premium on the day a new policy starts is currently yet this day, the last day one can switch, sees the majority of all renewals (23%). The average cheapest premium the day before is only marginally lower at and witnesses 15% of all switches. The cheapest time to switch premiums is three weeks before the renewal deadline, when the average cost is ; a maximum saving of However, this day accounts for only 1.5% of renewals. The average cost of motor insurance premiums ordinarily rises throughout the year and peaks in the winter months. The cheapest average premium rose to in November 2015, compared to in October and in September. By contrast, the average cheapest premium in January 2015 was Premiums have historically reached their most expensive in December before falling significantly after the New Year September October November Simon McCulloch, Director of Insurance, comparethemarket.com, said: Timing is key when it comes to choosing motor insurance and waiting until the last minute to switch premiums can leave drivers significantly out of pocket. Those who shop around for the best deals are more likely to avoid paying high premiums and can save a significant amount of money. Premiums are particularly high in the winter months so it is even more important that consumers take the initiative to switch well before the deadline to avoid the highest price. 13 DVLA hold details of driving licence holders in Great Britain only. As of 30 September 2014, there were 45.5 million active driving records in GB % of 45.5 billion is 10,319,400 drivers x 326 is 3,364,124,400 rounded to 3.4bn 9

10 Methodology All data, other than that referenced in the footnotes, is sourced from comparethemarket.com. When the average price is referred to, this is the mean average of the top five cheapest prices presented to a customer, where a consumer has clicked through to buy. Buying from the top five cheapest prices presented represents 90% of all car insurance sales. When the cheapest price is referred to, this is the average cheapest price presented, where a customer has clicked through to buy. All premium data refers to motor insurance products featuring comprehensive, third party fire and theft or third party cover. 10