Terrorism reinsurance market trends
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1 Terrorism reinsurance market trends A global (re)insurance market perspective David Flandro Global Head of Business Intelligence Guy Carpenter david.flandro@guycarp.com Julian Alovisi Global Research Guy Carpenter julian.alovisi@guycaro.com
2 USD bn The terror market What is the reinsurance capital position behind it? Highly resilient in spite of catastrophe losses 200 Hard market softening Hard market 120 Soft market Excess capital 100 Crisis Q12 GUY CARPENTER 06 December Source: Guy Carpenter
3 And additional supply is entering from alternative (re)insurance markets $4 4.5 billion? GUY CARPENTER Source: Trading Risk, Guy Carpenter
4 Corollary: plentiful reinsurance capacity for most coverage needs GUY CARPENTER
5 USD Bn Large catastrophe losses 2011 and 2012 Contrary to popular belief, 2012 normal and losses are manageable Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q GUY CARPENTER 06 December Source: Guy Carpenter
6 Terror losses are also moderating Global terror attacks approached an 8-year low in Attacks Fatalities GUY CARPENTER 06 December Source: Guy Carpenter
7 Terror losses are also moderating No significant large loss in the last four years Date Country Event Insured Property Loss (USD Million)* Fatalities September 11, 2001 United States Attacks in New York and Washington DC 23,870 2,982 April 24, 1993 United Kingdom IRA bomb attack in London 1,152 1 June 15, 1996 United Kingdom IRA bomb attack in Manchester April 10, 1992 United Kingdom IRA bomb attack in London February 26, 1993 United States World Trade Center bomb attack July 24, 2001 Sri Lank a Tamil Tiger attack at Colombo Airport February 9, 1996 United Kingdom IRA bomb attack in London April 19, 1995 United States Ok lahoma City bomb attack April 11, 1992 United Kingdom IRA bomb attack in London November 26, 2008 India Attacks and shootings in Mumbai *All losses adjusted to 2011 dollars GUY CARPENTER 06 December Source: Guy Carpenter
8 USD bn But new risks are clearly emerging Most growth has come from global emerging markets, particularly China, India, SE Asia year CAGR=13% US & Canada Western Europe Japan / Korea Global Emerging Markets Australia / NZ GUY CARPENTER 06 December 2012 Source: Swiss Re Sigma, OECD, Bloomberg consensus 2011 GDP forecasts, Conning, Standard & Poor s, Guy Carpenter estimates 7
9 Conclusion The changing nature of global terror risk Recent events in the Middle East, Western Europe and North Africa have shown that the nature of terror risk is changing Coverage must adapt to meet these new and emerging risks: - Emerging need for civil unrest and riot coverages - Increased territory-specific facultative losses Renewal (or not) of TRIA will have significant US implications The international reinsurance market can provide capital and alternative solutions GUY CARPENTER 06 December
10 Important Disclosure Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general information only. The information and data contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be general insurance/reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Please consult your insurance/reinsurance advisors with respect to individual coverage issues. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any calculation or forward-looking statements. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC undertakes no obligation to update or revise publicly any data, or current or forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, research, future events or otherwise. The rating agencies referenced herein reserve the right to modify company ratings at any time. Statements concerning tax, accounting or legal matters should be understood to be general observations based solely on our experience as reinsurance brokers and risk consultants and may not be relied upon as tax, accounting or legal advice, which we are not authorized to provide. All such matters should be reviewed with your own qualified advisors in these areas. This document or any portion of the information it contains may not be copied or reproduced in any form without the permission of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, except that clients of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC need not obtain such permission when using this report for their internal purposes. GUY CARPENTER The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC All Rights Reserved
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