RISK IDENTIFICATION ON CONSTRUCTION PLAN FOR HTGR-10 IN INDONESIA

Transcription

1 RISK IDENTIFICATION ON CONSTRUCTION PLAN FOR HTGR-10 IN INDONESIA Sri Sudadiyo IAEA Technical Meeting on Risk Management in Nuclear Power Plant Construction 6 8 September 2016, Vienna Center for Nuclear Reactor Technology and Safety National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) 1

2 CONTENTS Abstract Background Plan View Limitations Methodology Literature Review Data Analysis Results Summary Acknowledgements 2

3 ABSTRACT Risk management is one of the most important things to be applied to the HTGR-10 construction located in Serpong, Indonesia. The activities have focused on some aspects of risk management to identify risks the likelihood of occurrence and impacts of risks. The purpose of work is to identify, sort, and analyze the risks associated with the case of the HTGR-10 construction based on the WBS documents. Survey is done for collecting the risk data. The key risks to be considered are related to vendee / clients, manufacturers / contractors, suppliers / vendors, financial, government bodies, politic, and designers. Forty three key risk items were identified by the assessment. The matrix of the risk significance index for each component is calculated to determine rank of the most important key risks. Result indicates that amount of the most important key risks are the eight items. The general plant and turbine and condenser have category of high risky. It is hoped that this risk identification n will be useful as input for stakeholders or decision makers in preparation of the HTGR-10 construction. 3

4 BACKGROUND (1) In order to realize the vision of BATAN from 2015 to 2019, BATAN has task to develop and operate the Experimental Power Reactor (HTGR-10) with thermal capacity of 10 MW. HTGR-10, which planned to be built in Indonesia, is a type of high temperature helium-cooled reactor for generating the electricity. This HTGR-10 is a demonstration plant for experimental purpose in increasing mastery of advance technology. Mastering reactor technology is very important in view of the Indonesian people who still insufficiency iciency the electricity and many industries that require heat energy for various industrial processes. In the feasibility study had been studied about the ability of the t site in Serpong chosen for the research, development, and utilization of HTGR-10. In addition, the work also includes the aspects of finance, environmental impact, socio-politic, and culture. Geographically, site of HTGR-10 is located on the Puspiptek area of Serpong village, South Tangerang in Banten Province. 4

5 BACKGROUND (2) In accordance with the construction plan of HTGR-10, then the preparation of project management system is done especially for the risk identification of components within WBS document. Risk is the possibility of an action or any negative consequence selection in the forms of a financial loss, moral, and even soul. Furthermore, risk identification is the process of determining what, where, when, why, and how something can happen. There are some construction risks that may arise, one of which is the non-conformance on the design process. Therefore, one of the systems that must be considered is the implementation of the risk identification at the design processes. Design process was results of the development concept, the implementation plan, the calculations, and the technical specifications cations of the components installation and its parts. Risks that are usually attached to the numerous constructions namely the discrepancy between the design and the manufacture or assembly of components installation. 5

6 BACKGROUND (3) Risk identification can be meant identifying risk sources, areas of impacts, events, causes and possible consequences to form a comprehensive list of risks based on those events that might create, enhance, prevent, degrade, accelerate or delay the achievement of objectives. Risk management process is the systematic application of management policies, procedures, and practices to the tasks of communicating, establishing the context, identifying, analyzing, evaluating, treating, monitoring, and reviewing the risk. Risk management method is implemented for improvement performance because having a set of processes with six steps namely the risk management plan, risk identification, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk response plan, risk r monitoring, and control. This work presents risk identification for construction plan of the HTGR-10 within design documents of the work breakdown structure (WBS) for minimizing risk probability of failures. 6

7 BACKGROUND (4) Construction Plan of HTGR-10 Technical Data Core thermal power is 10 MW and temperature is 700 C Power conversion unit is water/steam cycle Electric power is 2.9 MW 7

8 BACKGROUND (5) Road Map 8

9 PLAN VIEW OF Main Gate 9

10 PLAN VIEW OF Public Information Center 10

11 PHOTO Our Team within in Preparation of the AMP Document for HTGR-10 (RDE) 11

12 LIMITATIONS The present work focuses on construction plan of the HTGR-10 within the design documents of WBS and is based on the theories of risk management described in the literatures. Due to the limited data of the WBS documents, this work was investigated during the planning process and conceptual design phase only. 12

13 METHODOLOGY The present work starts with a literature review for obtaining the t context of risk management in general terms with focus on the HTGR-10 project plan. Further, the risk management checklists or databases are made by referring to the references. Finally, a statistical analysis of data is predicted for measurement and assessment of the risk identification. This work is done by using the three parts, as follows: Risk identification Risk identification is conducted by using WBS documents of the HTGRH TGR-10 and literature studies including reviewing documents of the nuclear power plant with water/steam cycle. The risk management operation is performed in this part. By taking the assumption that the risks in the component supply phase for the construction plan are e pre-determined. Risk assessment To perform the risk assessment, a systemic checklists or databases of design, components, and construction activities are prepared in which the occurrence probability and impact of each risk is determined. Each parameter is evaluated with five options s from very low to very high. The risks data are collected and evaluated. The average values of the evaluated parameters are determined. Furthermore, the matrix of risk significance index for f each component is calculated by multiplying the occurrence probability and risk impact. Risk response The matrix values are analyzed to take action in response to each h risk. Each risk will be documented to provide awareness that the risk exist and have been n identified. Successful risk response will change the risk profile through the project life cycle. c 13

14 LITERATURE REVIEW (1) Risk Management Environment Model The Figure comprises three major sectors namely safety, production or operations, and financial or commercial which embedded within the strategic environment. These sectors intersect one another, so that decisions in one arena have impact and are impacted by decisions in a different sector. This Figure can be applied for construction case of the HTGR-10. In the management, risk can come from many sources such as training, production process, human resources, communication, outage management, finance, and so forth. For example, in the financial realm are issues of foreign exchange or currency risk, pricing of products and resources, escalation clauses, competitive pressures, insurance and derivatives pricing, interest rates on debt, and capital market performance. 14

15 LITERATURE REVIEW (2) Several of information can be used for identifying sources of risk related to factors such as general risk at industry, flow diagram of processes, contract investigation, material inspection, financial statement analysis, employee, and contractor, as well as expert interviews. Figure shows the graphic of risk management framework that presenting the systematic approach. This Figure can be applied to identify all of consequences of a particular event for finding an optimal decision to minimize adverse effects and maximize social and business objectives in a cost efficient manner. For case of HTGR-10 what consists of a variety of integrated systems that each of them encompasses numerous types of components. The components with the highest cost are selected for risk management process. In the WBS documents, there were eight components which identified having the highest cost. Process flow 15

16 DATA ANALYSIS (1) The amount of key risks are forty three items for construction plan of HTGR A list of the key risks for each component of HTGR-10 is presented in the following Table. The matrix can be made for calculation results of the risk significance index on the HTGR-10 component. The components are the general plant (COM), reactor pressure vessel (RPV), steam generator (SGR), turbine and condenser (TNC), cooling pump (CWP), generator (GEN), transformer (TFM), and voltage panel (VOP). 16

17 DATA ANALYSIS (2) Key Risks COM RPV SGR Components TNC CWP GEN TFM VOP Lack of vendee cash [LVC] Selection for manufacturers, suppliers, and orders in domestic [MSO] Likelihood of employing foreign vendors [LFV] Improperness of valuation criteria [IVC] Defect and ambiguity in request appearance [DAR] Deletion of foreign suppliers [DFS] Failure of the selected supplier [FSP] Confusion in evaluation [CIE] Delay in construction of HTGR-10 plant [DCE] Restriction in opening foreign exchange credits by Indonesian Bank [RFE] Issue of politic [IOP] Procurement through intermediaries [PTI] Opening the letter of credit (LC) at mediator bank [OLC] Rejection of Indonesian contractors LC by advanced countries [RLC] Postponement in prolongation LC [PLC] TOTAL (=43 items)

18 DATA ANALYSIS (3) Matrix for Risk Significance Index This Table shows the matrix for general plant of the HTGR Risks marked in the right upper corner are the risks with the greatest negative impact (the high risky) on the HTGR-10 performance. On the other hand, risks marked in the left bottom corner are categorized with low influence (less risky) on the HTGR-10 construction. The remaining risks in the middle of the matrix are classified as a moderate level (risky) where these risks have to be concerned. Then, the significant risks of HTGR-10 can be determined by sorting the value of matrix index. Very high High Moderate Low Very low Impact Rating Probability Rating Very low Low Moderate High Very high 18

19 RESULTS (1) Within HTGR-10 10,, the risks identification need to be applied for construction project. All of risks observed might happen to the construction project of HTGR-10. The present work is not to identify a list of risks but to ascertain the key risks that can significantly influence the construction of HTGR

20 RESULTS (2)( This Figure depicts that all of the key risks are identified to have significance index on at least one project objective for HTGR

21 RESULTS (3) This Figure represents the most important key risks for the construction project of HTGR

22 RESULTS (4)( In the literature studies, no research has so far been identified d to systematically investigate the key risks associated with construction ction project of the HTGR-10 from the perspectives of stakeholders or decision makers. In this work, analysis of the risks assessment is able to identified 43 key risks in which 3 items are classified as highly risky, 5 items as risky, and 35 items as less risky. The category of high risky and risky is the most important key risks r for construction project of the HTGR-10 in Serpong,, Indonesia. The most important key risks and the solutions for controlling them t are shown in the following Table. It can be seen on the Table, the solutions are reasonable and workable to which need more time in running especially for the national solutions and they will be effective in the long term, while some of these solutions contain the risks during the HTGR-10 construction. 22

23 RESULTS (5)( Rank Key Risk Component Affected Breakthrough Device Consequence Providing trustworthy assurance to the banks under treaty. Controlling Extra guarantees may enhance the HTGR-10 project expense. Making use of cash instead of LC. Preventing The HTGR-10 construction project posses the possibility of additional charges. 1 PLC COM Updating the LC expiration in order to supply the HTGR-10 component. Controlling This solution is not executable in the every procurement of the HTGR-10 component. Government Holding joint commercial meetings with other industrial countries. Regulation It requires plenty of time and expense. Government Providing factories for manufacturers and suppliers. Regulation It requires plenty of time and expense. 2 MSO TNC Government Increasing product accuracy for the HTGR-10 component. Regulation It requires plenty of time and expense. Ordering products of the HTGR-10 component parts in other countries. Preventing The HTGR-10 construction project posses the possibility of additional charges and delay due to import, transportation, and trade. 23

24 Rank Key Risk Component Affected RESULTS (6)( Breakthrough Device Consequence Government Improvement of financial and trade relations with the other industrial countries. Regulation It takes a long time to perform the mutual issues. 3 OLC COM Cooperating with other countries with good political relations as an intermediary for opening LC. Preventing It shall result in upgrade in the HTGR-10 project expense. Attracting involvement of the industrial countries for investing in Indonesia. Controlling Identifying and making database of the investors are very time consuming. Making use of cash instead of LC. Preventing The HTGR-10 construction project posses the possibility of additional charges. Government Abolishing the limitations or simplifying the regulations of Indonesian Bank. Regulation Indonesian government must be willing to open a foreign currency loan by Bank. 4 RFE COM Consultations of subscriber representative with Indonesian Bank. Controlling Project duration of the HTGR- 10 construction is more and more increase. Not applying foreign currency credits. Preventing This solution is appropriate for the construction project of HTGR

25 Rank Key Risk Component Affected RESULTS (7)( Breakthrough Device Consequence Selling bonds or receiving long-term loans. Preventing Increasing in project cost of the HTGR-10 construction due to the interest rates of the loans and bonds. 5 IVC CWP Government Encouraging the private manufacture industries sector for investment. Regulation Identifying and arranging database of new investors, as well as making the necessary modification in regulations are very time consuming. Guarantees of vendors can be freed instead of payment for their bills. Accepting The project quality of the HTGR-10 construction will decrease. Government Transferring the component technology of HTGR-10 from wellknown manufacturers. Regulation It requires plenty of time and expense and the construction project of HTGR-10 might face new risks. 6 DAR RPV Using intermediary countries for importing the HTGR-10 component. Preventing It will cause an increase in the construction charge of HTGR- 10. Government Identifying and selecting the new manufacturers from advanced countries or industrial countries. Regulation Identifying and arranging the database of new manufacturers are very time consuming. 25

26 Rank Key Risk Component Affected RESULTS (8)( Breakthrough Device Consequence Selling bonds or receiving long-term loans. Preventing Increasing in construction cost of HTGR-10 due to the interest rates of loans and bonds. 7 IVC VOP Government Encouraging the private manufacture industries sector for investment. Regulation Identifying and arranging database of new investors, as well as making the necessary modification in regulations are very time consuming. Guarantees of vendors can be freed instead of payment for their bills. Accepting The project quality of the HTGR-10 construction will decrease. Government Transferring the component technology of HTGR-10 from wellknown manufacturers. Regulation It requires plenty of time and expense and the construction project of HTGR-10 might face new risks. 8 DAR GEN Using intermediary countries for importing the HTGR-10 component. Preventing It will cause an increase in the construction charge of HTGR- 10. Government Identifying and selecting the new manufacturers from advanced countries or industrial countries. Regulation Identifying and arranging the database of new manufacturers are very time consuming. 26

27 SUMMARY The most important key risks have been identified on the probability of occurrence and impacts on case of the HTGR-10 construction. Eight key risks are found and the appropriate solutions for controlling these risks could be categorized into three major categories namely: The development of supplying and manufacturing in domestic: This can be done by increasing capacity of existing factories and improving the planning ning in production line for construction of HTGR-10. Expansion of the relationship with foreign suppliers: To do this,, new foreign suppliers should be identified. The component manufacturing technology from m well-known manufacturers should be transferred into the Indonesia. Also, using countries with political relations or foreign international banks as an intermediary for opening the letter of credit (LC) is a proper solution for the identified key risks. Improvement of financial methods: The solutions are regard for instance by selling bonds, receiving long-term loans, encouraging the private sector, and facilitating the financial regulations of Indonesian Bank. In conclusion, the stage of risk management plan was to identify,, analyze, and find the proper response to the risks. These solutions can improve time schedule, s expense, and quality in the component supply process for construction of HTGR

28 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work is supported by the Center for Nuclear Reactor Technology and Safety, National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia. Author is grateful to the IAEA for travel and living expenses. 28

29 Thank you for your attention Contact : Dr. Sri Sudadiyo sudadiyo@batan.go.id 29