Asia-Pacific Sector Insights: Indian Non-Bank Finance Companies

Transcription

1 Asia-Pacific Sector Insights: Indian Non-Bank Finance Companies Live Webcast and Q&A Suresh Krishnamurthy, Director, Financial Sector Ratings, CRISIL Ltd.; Amit Pandey, Associate Director, Financial Institutions Ratings, S&P Global Ratings; Deepali Seth Chhabria, Associate Director, Financial Institutions Ratings, S&P Global Ratings; Nikita Anand, Associate, Financial Institutions Ratings, S&P Global Ratings Copyright 2016 by S&P Global. All rights reserved.

2 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Indian non-banks - Strong growth prospects for retail financiers - Financial profile to remain stable September 28, Classification: EXTERNAL

3 Key Messages 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Long-term growth potential of Indian non-banks remains strong; wholesale financiers to see some moderation CV finance, loans against property and auto finance remain the 3 largest segments for retail NBFCs Asset quality of retail NBFCs to stabilize; to arrest downward trend in earnings Capitalisation of retail NBFCs remains comfortable 3 Classification: EXTERNAL

4 Growth story to continue for Indian non-banks 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Retail NBFCs expected to post healthy growth of ~20%, coupled with increased diversification Vehicle financing growth to pick up, while LAP and SME will be among the fastestgrowing segments Growth of wholesale NBFCs to moderate to ~15% Growth to moderate in FY 17 from a CAGR of 18% between FY13-16, primarily due to the impact of UDAY on power sector financiers Steady growth of ~20% at HFCs, despite increasing competitive intensity Increased competition from banks amidst weak corporate credit demand Affordable housing witnessing high level of interest from both investors and financiers 4 Classification: EXTERNAL

5 CV financing and LAP to be key growth drivers 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. M&HCV financing to drive overall CV loan growth Replacement demand and implementation of BSIV norms to drive M&HCV sales LCV financing to remain sluggish driven by excess capacity; long-term potential intact Gradual recovery in auto loan growth, linked to consumer sentiment Expected double digit growth in primary market sales to lead to higher disbursements, coupled with higher financing penetration, especially in non-metro locations LAP growth high despite moving to sub-30% levels NBFCs focusing on LAP in search of diversification, while HFCs seek higher yields compared to home loans Smaller ticket size segment to grow with new entrants such as SFBs to tap this segment 5 Classification: EXTERNAL

6 Asset quality and financial profile to be stable 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Asset quality of retail NBFCs to stabilize; to arrest downward trend in earnings Pick-up in economic growth and above-normal monsoons to support asset quality However, reported NPAs could increase mainly due to change in regulatory norms Marginal improvement in earning profile of retail NBFCs expected Lower interest reversals and lower borrowing costs to support margins Asset quality improvement to mitigate provisioning impact of revised NPA norms Capitalization of retail NBFCs remains comfortable Strong capital base to support growth over the medium-term Gradual increase in gearing level expected for retail NBFCs Net worth to net NPAs ratio remains adequate to cover asset side risks 6 Classification: EXTERNAL

7 Retail NBFCs to sustain ground amid increased competitive intensity 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. NBFCs competitive position in traditional segments to witness pressure Increasing focus on retail financing by incumbent banks and new entrants SME/LAP segment to exhibit witness significant increase in competition by SFBs NBFCs may need to re-orient their business model Increasing shift towards Tier-II / Tier-III and rural markets and riskier borrower segments Strengthen internal processes and collections infrastructure by leveraging technology NBFCs inherent strengths will help to survive increase in competition Ability to offer customized solutions, especially to borrowers with limited credit history Deep understanding of local market dynamics and relationship driven business model Overall, market opportunity remains large Credit penetration in non-metro locations lags metro and Tier I towns substantially 7 Classification: EXTERNAL

8 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Thank you Suresh Krishnamurthy Director Financial Sector Ratings T: Classification: EXTERNAL

9 Power Finance Corp. Ltd. Major Rating Factors Counterparty Credit Rating Foreign Currency BBB-/Stable/NR Local Currency BBB-/Stable/-- Strengths: Weaknesses: Extremely high likelihood of government support. Weak credit quality of borrowers. Good capitalization and profitability. High asset concentration. Outlook: The stable outlook on Power Finance Corp. Ltd. (PFC) reflects our expectation that the company's critical role in the power sector in India is highly likely to continue over the next few years at least. We could lower the rating on PFC if the company's link with the government weakens significantly. We could lower our assessment of government support to the company if the government contemplates privatizing PFC. But we do not expect PFC's link to the government to weaken over the next couple of years at least. We could also lower the rating if PFC's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) weakens, which could happen if the company's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio declines below 10%. PFC's faster growth than our expectation or an increase in economic risk of India could lead to fall in the RAC ratio. The possibility of an upgrade is remote over the next two years. 9

10 Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. Major Rating Factors Counterparty Credit Rating BB+/Stable/B Strengths: Dominant market position in pre-owned commercial vehicle (CV) financing. Weaknesses: Inherently high credit costs. Strong capitalization and earnings. Outlook: Our stable outlook reflects our expectation that STFC will sustain its good market position in the pre-owned CV financing segment along with stable growth, capitalization, and earnings over the next months. We may lower the rating if STFC's RAC ratio declines below 10%, which could happen if: (1) the company grows more than our expectations; (2) its profitability deteriorates and credit costs increase sharply; or (3) economic risk in India increases. We are unlikely to raise the rating in the outlook horizon because used CVs, which comprise a majority of STFC's assets, are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, in our view. 10

11 Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Ltd. Major Rating Factors Counterparty Credit Rating BB/Stable/-- Strengths: Weaknesses: Adequate capitalization. High reliance on wholesale borrowing. Sound risk management practices. Average earnings. Small size and limited diversity, in part due to monoline business. Outlook: The stable outlook on Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Ltd. (DHFL) reflects our view that the company will maintain its financial performance over the next months. We may downgrade DHFL if the company's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio falls below 7% on a sustained basis. This could happen if DHFL grows aggressively--either organically or inorganically--and is unable to support this growth with sufficient capital infusion, or if economic risk in India rises. We may also lower the rating if DHFL's asset quality weakens substantially, which we view as unlikely over the next months. The rating has no upside potential in the next months, in our view. 11

12 Kotak Mahindra Prime Ltd. Major Rating Factors Counterparty Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/A-3. Strengths: Weaknesses: Core subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra group. Concentrated funding mix. Strong capitalization. Sound risk management. Small size and limited diversity, with focus on auto financing. High exposure to the commercial real estate segment. Outlook: The stable outlook on KMPL reflects the outlook on its parent. We expect KMPL to remain a core entity of Kotak Mahindra Bank. The rating on KMPL is likely to move in tandem with that on the bank. We may lower the rating on KMPL if we lower the rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank. We could lower the rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank if its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio declines below 10%, which could happen if the bank's assets grow higher than our expectations or the economic risk in India worsens. We could upgrade KMPL if we raise the rating on the bank. An upgrade of the bank in the next one to two years is unlikely. We could raise the rating if the bank's funding profile improves materially to levels comparable with the industry average and we raise the sovereign credit rating on India (unsolicited rating BBB-/Stable/A-3). 12

13 Export-Import Bank of India Major Rating Factors Counterparty Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/A-3. Strengths: Critical role and integral link to the government of India, resulting in an almost certain likelihood of extraordinary government support. Weaknesses: High NPLs and credit costs due to stress in the corporate loan portfolio. Adequate capitalization and earnings. Outlook: The stable outlook on Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim) reflects the outlook on the sovereign credit rating on India (BBB-/Stable/A-3). The outlook also reflects our expectation that India Exim's role and link to the government will remain unchanged over the next 24 months. The ratings and outlook on India Exim will move in tandem with the sovereign rating. 13

14 Q&A 14

15 S&P Global Ratings Related Research On India NBFC Title Date Power Finance Corp. Ltd. 20-Apr-2016 Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. 10-May-2016 Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Ltd. 11-May-2016 Kotak Mahindra Prime Ltd. 29-Feb-2016 Export-Import Bank of India 07-Sep-2016 Export-Import Bank of India 'BBB-/A-3' Ratings Affirmed; Stand-Alone Credit Profile Revised To 'bb'; Outlook Stable 26-Jul

16 Thank you Amit Pandey Geeta Chugh T: T: Deepali Seth Chhabria Nikita Anand T:

17 Appendix Private & Confidential 17

18 Rs Trillion % 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Retail NBFCs AUM expected to post healthy growth, coupled with increased diversification Assets under Management Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 (P) AUM (LHS) Growth (RHS) 0 Classification: EXTERNAL 18

19 HFCs facing high competition across product segments Rs Trillion % 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. Overall advances * Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 (P) AUM (LHS) Growth (RHS) *Adjusted for mergers 0 19 Classification: EXTERNAL

20 % % 2016 CRISIL Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 Asset quality of retail NBFCs to stabilize; to arrest downward trend in earnings Gross NPAs 3 Return on Managed Assets Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 (P) 0 Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 (P) 20 Classification: EXTERNAL

21 S&P NBFI Criteria Framework Source: Nonbank Financial Institutions Rating Methodology, published on December 9,

22 Indian Finance Companies Company Name Kotak Mahindra Prime Ltd. Anchor Power Finance Corp. Ltd. Export-Import Bank of India Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Ltd. Shriram Transport Finance Co. Ltd. Country of domicile India India India India India Industry risk Economic risk Bank Anchor bbb- bbb- bbb- bbb- bbb- Standard Adjustment Preliminary Anchor bb- bb- bb- bb- bb- Final anchor bb bb bb bb bb Key Credit Factors Entity Specific Adjustment Business Position Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Capital, Leverage, & Earnings Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Adequate(0) Adequate (0) Strong (+1) Risk Position Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Moderate (-1) Adequate (0) Moderate (-1) Funding and Liquidity Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Adequate (0) External Support Type of Support and notches CORE to Parent (+1) GRE (+1) GRE (+2) N.A. N.A. Rating Summary SACP bb+ bb+ bb bb bb+ Long-term BBB- BBB- BBB- BB BB+ Outlook/CW Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Short-term A-3 -- A-3 -- B Source: S&P Global Ratings Full Analysis of Finance Companies 22

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