Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; Outlook Negative.

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1 February 10, 2012 Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; Outlook Negative Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List 1

2 Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; Overview On Jan. 13, 2012, Standard & Poor's lowered its unsolicited long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Italy to 'BBB+/A-2' from 'A/A-1', assigned a negative outlook, and removed the ratings from CreditWatch negative. We have revised our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on Italy to group '4' from group '3', and our economic risk and industry risk scores on Italy to '4' from '3'. We are lowering our long- and short-term ratings on Italian bank Banca Carige SpA (Carige) to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB/A-2' and removing them from CreditWatch negative. The negative outlook reflects the possibility that we could lower the ratings on Carige if we saw further weakening in domestic economic and banking industry conditions. We would also consider lowering the ratings if we perceived that Carige's capitalization and asset quality in 2012 were significantly worse than our current baseline scenario expectations. Rating Action On Feb. 10, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long- and short-term counterparty credit ratings on Italian bank Banca Carige SpA (Carige) to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB/A-2'. We also removed them from CreditWatch negative, where we placed them on Dec. 7, The outlook is negative. In accordance with our hybrid criteria, we also lowered our issue ratings on Carige's senior unsecured to 'BBB-' from 'BBB', on its Lower Tier 2 hybrid notes to 'BB+' from 'BBB-', and on its Upper Tier 2 hybrid notes to 'BB' from 'BB+'. Rationale The downgrade follows the lowering of the unsolicited long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Italy (BBB+/Negative/A-2) (see " Italy's Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'BBB+/A-2'; " published Jan. 13, 2012, on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal). It reflects the revision of our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) on Italy to group '4' from group '3', and of our economic risk and industry risk scores on Italy to '4' from '3' (see "BICRA On Italy Revised To Standard & Poors RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal February 10,

3 Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; Group '4' From Group '3' On Weakening Economic And Banking Industry Conditions" published Feb. 10, 2012). We have lowered our assessment of Carige's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) to 'bbb-' from 'bbb' owing to our change of the anchor for banks operating in Italy to 'bbb' from 'bbb+', derived from our revised BICRA. We have maintained our assessments of Carige's "adequate" business position, "moderate" capital and earnings, "adequate" risk position, "average" funding, and "adequate" liquidity, as our criteria define these terms. Our bank criteria use our BICRA economic risk and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer credit rating. The 'bbb' anchor draws on our view of the economic risk and industry risk in Italy where Carige operates. We view Italy as a diversified and competitive economy with moderate credit risk. The imbalances in domestic asset prices and the buildup of leverage are low, in our opinion. But we consider that Italy's public debt is very high, and exposes the country to significant external refinancing risk given that nearly 40% of its public debt has been financed by non-resident operators. With regard to industry risk, we believe that systemwide funding benefits from Italian banks' generally limited reliance on long- and short-term wholesale sources. However, we see that current tensions in eurozone sovereign debt markets are significantly limiting Italian banks' ability to rollover their wholesale debt. In our view, it's primarily the European Central Bank's proactive moves to provide liquidity to banks that have avoided a domestic credit crunch. Italian banks have a restrained risk appetite, in our opinion. We think that their persistently weak profitability since 2009, however, has hampered their generation of risk-adjusted return on core banking products that is sufficient to meet their cost of capital. We believe this may be negative for the banking industry's stability. We consider regulatory standards to be in line with those of Western European peers'. Our revised assessment of economic risk reduces our measure of risk-adjusted capital (RAC) for Carige by about 70 basis points (bps) below our previous estimate. However, we continue to assess Carige's capital and earnings as "moderate," reflecting our expectation that the bank's RAC ratio before diversification adjustments will comfortably exceed 5% by the end of We are assuming that management will strengthen capital beyond earnings retention. We consider Carige to have "moderate" systemic importance and the Italian government to be "supportive" of its banking sector. We evaluate the likelihood of government support for Carige as "moderate," but do not incorporate any uplift into the ratings from the SACP, given the 'BBB+' long-term rating on Italy. 3

4 Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; Outlook The negative outlook reflects the possibility that we could lower the ratings on Carige if we saw further weakening in domestic economic and banking industry conditions. We would also consider lowering the ratings if we perceived that Carige's capitalization and asset quality in 2012 were significantly worse than our current baseline scenario expectations. Under our baseline scenario, we anticipate that Carige's RAC ratio before diversification adjustments will comfortably exceed 5% by the end of We also expect that Carige's nonperforming assets will accumulate in 2012 and 2013 at rates above those of 2010 and 2011 but in line with the system average, reflecting the weaker Italian economy. We expect credit provisions to stay around 60 bps in 2012 and We could revise the outlook to stable if Carige's capitalization met our expectations, in particular if we saw its RAC before diversification adjustments comfortably above 5% by end-2012, and if we perceived an overall healthier economic and financial outlook for Italy, and therefore for its banking system. Ratings Score Snapshot Issuer Credit Rating BBB- SACP bbb- Anchor bbb Business Position Adequate (0) Capital and Earnings Moderate (-1) Risk Position Adequate (0) Funding and Liquidity Average and Adequate (0) Support 0 GRE Support 0 Group Support 0 Sovereign Support 0 Additional Factors 0 Related Criteria And Research Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Bank Hybrid Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 1, 2011 Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Italy's Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'BBB+/A-2';, Jan. Standard & Poors RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal February 10,

5 Research Update: Italy-Based Banca Carige SpA Ratings Lowered To 'BBB-/A-3' On Italy BICRA Change; 13, 2012 BICRA On Italy Revised To Group '4' From Group '3' On Weakening Economic And Banking Industry Conditions, Feb. 10, 2012 Ratings List Downgraded; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From Banca Carige SpA Counterparty Credit Rating BBB-/Negative/A-3 BBB/Watch Neg/A-2 Certificate Of Deposit BBB-/A-3 BBB/A-2 Senior Unsecured BBB- BBB/Watch Neg Subordinated BB+ BBB-/Watch Neg Junior Subordinated BB BB+/Watch Neg Certificate Of Deposit A-3 A-2/Watch Neg Additional Contact: Financial Institutions Ratings Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495)

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