International Business Machines Corp.
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- Derick Wood
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1 Summary: International Business Machines Corp. Primary Credit Analyst: John D Moore, CFA, New York (1) ; john.moore@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: David T Tsui, CFA, CPA, New York (1) ; david.tsui@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Rationale Outlook Our Base-Case Scenario Business Risk Financial Risk Liquidity Ratings Score Snapshot Reconciliation Related Criteria SEPTEMBER 12,
2 Summary: International Business Machines Corp. Business Risk: STRONG Vulnerable Excellent a+ a+ a+ CORPORATE CREDIT RATING Financial Risk: MODEST A+/Stable/A-1 Highly leveraged Minimal Anchor Modifiers Group/Gov't Rationale Business Risk: Strong Large operating scale as a global provider of mission critical mainframe computing products and services; Large base of recurring software and service revenues that support operating earnings and cash flow; and Operating declines due to persistent cloud service competition. Financial Risk: Modest Moderately acquisitive growth strategy; Consistently strong free cash flow; and Shareholder returns and acquisition spending likely within a 1.5x-2x net adjusted debt to EBITDA area in 2017 and SEPTEMBER 12,
3 Outlook: Stable S&P Global Ratings' stable outlook on Armonk, N.Y.-based International Business Machines Corp. reflects the expectation that the company's operating performance will remain flat to slightly down through 2018 and it will sustain leverage in the 1.5x-2x area through Downside scenario A downgrade is unlikely in 2017 and 2018, considering the company's large operating scale, leading market position as a provider of mission critical mainframe computing solutions, and moderate financial policy. However, we could lower the rating if we expect EBITDA declines to persist without moderation or if we expect adjusted net leverage to exceed 2x on a sustained basis. Upside scenario An upgrade is also unlikely in 2017 and 2018, considering the company's exposure to legacy businesses in secular decline and investments needed to improve its competitive positioning and operating performance. However, we could raise the rating if we expect the company will achieve sustained operating growth through further execution on strategic initiatives, with adjusted net leverage sustained below 1.5x. Our Base-Case Scenario SEPTEMBER 12,
4 Assumptions Real global GDP growth of 3.6% in 2017 and Annual global information technology (IT) spending growth in the low-single-digit percentage area in 2017 and Flat to slightly declining revenues for IBM of about $78 billion annually in 2017 and 2018, less favorable than our expectations for low-single-digit percentage overall global IT industry spending growth in 2017 and reflective of the company's weight in declining legacy markets. Continuing low- to mid-single-digit percentage Cognitive Solutions software revenue growth, partially offset by flat to slightly declining transaction-processing software revenues, due to the company's exposure to legacy, on-premise software offerings in decline. Steady, low-single-digit percentage Global Business Services (GBS) revenue declines, due primarily to the business's significant exposure to legacy enterprise resource planning system implementation service and software application management revenues in decline. Flat to slightly declining Technology Services and Cloud Platforms revenue performance, reflecting data analytic services revenue growth, offset by a secular decline in legacy data center outsourcing services. Flat to slightly declining hardware systems and related software business revenue performance, supported by mainframe cycle growth in late 2017 and in 2018, offset by declines in other systems hardware and operating software. Generally steady EBITDA including our adjustments of about $19 billion annually and EBITDA margins including our adjustments of about 25%. Steady annual capital expenditures at about $4 billion or 5% of revenues. Steady free cash flow of about $11 billion-$12 billion. Quarterly paid common dividends of about $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion, with single-digit percentage annual dividend payout rate increases. Adherence to steady low single-digit percentage common share count reduction strategy and about $3 billion-$4 billion annual share repurchase Key Metrics (Bil. $) 2016A 2017E 2018E Revenue Year-to-year decline (%) (2.2) (1.9) (0.4) Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) Capex (4.2) (3.8) (3.8) Interest expense (1.2) (1.2) (1.2) Cash taxes (1.1) (2.1) (2.0) Free cash flow Share repurchases (3.3) (3.5) (3.3) Dividends (5.3) (5.6) (5.8) Debt as reported Captive finance company debt adjustment (25.2) (25.2) (25.2) Pension debt adjustment Operating lease debt adjustment Cash S&P Global Ratings adjusted debt Adjusted debt to EBITDA (x) A--Actual. E--Estimate. We adjust debt for surplus cash, leases, pensions, and captive finance operations. We continue to net 75% of the company's cash against debt in our assessment of its leverage. Adjusted debt includes our adjustment for captive finance operations, which applies a debt to equity leverage factor of 9x to global finance receivables. For 2016, our collective adjustments reduced debt and increased EBITDA by $16 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively. SEPTEMBER 12,
5 spending. Approximately $3 billion annual acquisition spending, in line with average annual spending between Based on these assumptions, we expect that the company will sustain debt to EBITDA in the 1.5x-2x area through 2018 from 1.5x on June 30, Business Risk: Strong IBM's business risk profile reflects its large operating scale as measured by revenues as a global provider of mission critical mainframe computing products and services, significant base of recurring service fee and software revenues, as well as its geographically diverse and broad customer base. By our estimates, IBM's mostly recurring mainframe product and services business constitute about 25% of the company's revenues and a larger portion of its operating profit. We also expect about 8% of its revenues in 2017 will represent mainframe hardware and operating software revenues, whose performance in 2017 and 2018 will remain tied to a 24-month mainframe refresh cycle. Rapidly evolving market conditions, including a market shift to cloud-based solutions from traditional, on customer premise, hardware-centric solutions continue to pressure IBM's revenues and competitive position. We expect the market's transition to cloud-enabled solutions will result in the company continuing low-single-digit revenue declines in 2017 and 2018, though the company will maintain steady 25% EBITDA margins including our adjustments. Steady EBITDA margins reflect restructuring initiatives taken over the past several years. Key strengths include IBM's opportunity to sell a portfolio of data analytics and cloud service solutions and leverage its broad geographic presence and entrenched client relationships as a provider of mission critical enterprise computing solutions. We expect these strengths will partially offset revenue declines in 2017 and 2018 related to competition from cloud service competitors, including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Corp.'s Azure cloud solutions business. IBM derives a majority of its earnings from a largely recurring base of software and services revenues, which helps mitigate earnings volatility in individual product and business segments. We expect revenues from the company's less recurring businesses, including legacy system hardware and implementation services, will represent about one-third or less of its revenues in 2017 and Although quarterly profitability measures (including the effect of ongoing restructuring actions) can be more seasonal and variable, we expect steady EBITDA margins in the mid-20% area. S&P Base-Case Operating Scenario Given IBM's exposure to legacy software and secularly declining enterprise resource planning system implementation services, we expect the company's revenue will decline in 2017 and 2018 as opposed to our expectation for low single digit percentage growth in overall sector spending. EBITDA, adjusted for leases, pensions, stock compensation expense, captive finance operations, and net surplus cash, of about $18.5 billion in 2017 and $18 billion in 2018, down from $19.6 billion in For 2017 and 2018, we expect moderating EBITDA margin pressures, due to cost savings from restructuring actions taken over the past several years and the cyclical upswing of the company's highly profitable mainframe hardware and related software SEPTEMBER 12,
6 businesses. Steady capital expenditures at about 5% of revenues. Steady free cash flow of about $11 billion-$12 billion. Mid-single-digit percentage rate annual increases to annual dividends of about $5.6 billion in 2017 paid quarterly. Acquisition spending of about $3 billion annually in 2017 and Share repurchases of about $3 billion-$4 billion annually. Financial Risk: Modest Our assessment of IBM's modest financial risk profile reflects our expectation that the company will sustain debt to EBITDA including our adjustments in the 1.5x-2x area through 2018, steady with debt to EBITDA including our adjustments of 1.5x as of June 30, We adjust debt for surplus cash, leases, pensions, and captive finance operations. We net 75% of the company's cash against debt in our assessment of its leverage. Adjusted debt includes our adjustment for captive finance operations, which applies a debt to equity leverage factor of 9x to global finance receivables. We expect the company in 2017 and 2018 will generate about $11 billion-$12 billion free cash flow annually, allocate its capital for acquisitions, pay quarterly dividends of about $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion, and maintain share-repurchase spending of about $3 billion-$4 billion. We expect acquisitions will continue to figure prominently in IBM's growth strategy and will help preserve the company's market position and business risk profile. IBM has taken strategic actions to divest low-margin, low-growth, and more capital-intensive businesses over the past several years. Since 2015, the company has not announced any significant divestitures. S&P Global Ratings' Base-Case Cash Flow And Capital Structure Scenario Free cash flow of about $11 billion-$12 billion annually in 2017 and 2018; Dividends of about $5.6 billion in 2017 and $5.8 billion in 2018; Share repurchases of about $3 billion-$4 billion annually in 2017 and 2018; and Acquisition spending of about $3 billion annually in 2017 and We expect capital deployment including acquisition spending will not materially affect IBM's liquidity and financial profile. Liquidity: Strong IBM has strong liquidity. We expect that net sources would be positive, even under our stress scenario of a 30% decline in EBITDA. Under our base case forecast, we expect coverage of uses will be slightly in excess of 1.5x for the next months. We expect liquidity sources and uses over 2017 and 2018 will include the following: SEPTEMBER 12,
7 Principal Liquidity Sources Cash and marketable securities of $12.2 billion as of June 30, 2017; Operating cash flow of about $15 billion annually in 2017 and 2018; and The company's undrawn committed bank facilities of $10.25 billion expiring in Principal Liquidity Uses Capital expenditures of $3 billion-$4 billion per year or about 5% of revenues; Quarterly dividends on common stock amounting to about $5.6 billion in 2017 and $5.8 billion in 2018; and Debt maturities of about $4.5 billion in 2017 and $5.2 billion in Ratings Score Snapshot Corporate Credit Rating A+/Stable/A-1 Business risk: Strong Country risk: Low Industry risk: Intermediate Competitive position: Strong Financial risk: Modest Cash flow/leverage: Modest Anchor: a+ Modifiers Diversification/Portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact) Capital structure: Neutral (no impact) Financial policy: Neutral (no impact) Liquidity: Strong (no impact) Management and governance: Strong (no impact) Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no impact) Stand-alone credit profile : a+ Group credit profile: a+ Reconciliation SEPTEMBER 12,
8 Related Criteria General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017 Criteria - Corporates - General: Methodology: The Impact Of Captive Finance Operations On Nonfinancial Corporate Issuers, Dec. 14, 2015 Criteria - Corporates - Industrials: Key Credit Factors For The Technology Hardware And Semiconductors Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - Industrials: Key Credit Factors For The Technology Software And Services Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Criteria - Corporates - General: 2008 Corporate Criteria: Rating Each Issue, April 15, 2008 Business And Financial Risk Matrix Business Risk Profile Financial Risk Profile Minimal Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly leveraged Excellent aaa/aa+ aa a+/a a- bbb bbb-/bb+ Strong aa/aa- a+/a a-/bbb+ bbb bb+ bb Satisfactory a/a- bbb+ bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+ bb b+ Fair bbb/bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b Weak bb+ bb+ bb bb- b+ b/b- Vulnerable bb- bb- bb-/b+ b+ b b- SEPTEMBER 12,
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