Request For Comment: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risks Specific To Wireless Device Payment Plan Agreements
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1 Request For Comment: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risks Specific To Wireless Device Payment Plan Agreements July 18, 2017 Farooq Omer (1) Mark O Neil (1) mark.o neil@spglobal.com Allyn Arden, CFA (1) allyn.arden@spglobal.com John Anglim (1) john.anglim@spglobal.com James Traynor (1) james.traynor@spglobal.com Copyright 2017 by S&P Global. All rights reserved.
2 Overview of Proposed Criteria Provides a global framework for determining the maximum potential rating (MPR) for wireless device payment plan agreements (wireless DPPA) ABS. Specifically, the proposed criteria will address the risk that the cellular network may be unavailable, or there is a prolonged disruption, in connection with the bankruptcy of the cellular network provider. In such a scenario, we believe a significant number of obligors may stop making loan payments because of the limited utility of the related phone. The proposed framework adapts elements of our corporate methodology and is broken into two primary assessments: Step 1: Determination of the adjusted anchor. Step 2: Modifiers: notching assessment from the adjusted anchor. 2
3 Step 1: determine the adjusted anchor The Adjusted Anchor is generally the starting point of our analysis of determining the Maximum Potential Rating We typically determine the adjusted anchor by combining: the cellular service provider s Business Risk Profile (BRP), as determined under our corporate methodology ( Corporate Methodology Nov. 19, 2013), with a FRP assessment of minimal. 3
4 S&P s Corporate Criteria Key determinants of business risk profile 4
5 Business Risk Profile A business risk profile (BRP) comprises the risk and return potential for a company in the markets where it operates, the competitive climate in those markets (industry risk), the country risks within those markets, and the competitive advantages and disadvantages the company has within those markets (its competitive position). Competitive position: 1. Competitive advantage (45% weighting used in determining the preliminary competitive position for most telecom issuers): the strategic positioning and attractiveness to customers of a company s products or services, and the fragility or sustainability of its business model 2. Scale/Scope/Diversity (30% weighting): the concentration or diversification of business activities 3. Operating Efficiency (25% weighting): the quality and flexibility of a company s asset base and its cost management and structure 4. Profitability (influences the competitive position): the absolute level of profitability (i.e. RoC, EBITDA margin) and volatility of profitability We use the cellular service provider s BRP assessment in determining the MPR of a wireless device ABS. Many of the factors that go into determining the BRP assessment of a cellular service provider are also inextricably linked to the ongoing functionality of the company s cellular network. 5
6 Adjusted Anchor Combining the cellular service provider s BRP assessment and a "Minimal" FRP assessment suggests the following adjusted anchor assessments for a given BRP assessment: Business Risk Profile Adjusted Anchor Assessment 1 Excellent aa+ 2 Strong aa- 3 Satisfactory a- 4 Fair bbb- 5 Weak bb+ 6 Vulnerable bb- 6
7 Step 2: Modifiers notching from the adjusted anchor Assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the cellular network provider's business and cellular network compared to other cellular service operators in the relevant market. Reductions from the adjusted anchor will generally be limited by our view of the wireless network provider's creditworthiness. Increases from the adjusted anchor will generally be limited to three notches. 7
8 Criteria Framework 8
9 Key Analytical Components The proposed Criteria will supplement existing operational risk criteria ( Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions, published Oct. 9, 2014) in order to address the risk of prolonged disruption in the cellular service network due to the bankruptcy of the cellular service provider. The remaining tenets of our Principles framework for Structured Finance will generally be addressed through the following criteria Credit Quality of the Securitized Assets: Global Methodology For Assessing The Credit Quality Of Securitized Consumer Receivables, Oct. 9, 2014 Payment Structure: Global Framework For Cash Flow Analysis of Structured Finance Securities, Oct. 9, 2014 Counterparty Criteria: Counterparty Risk Framework Methodology and Assumptions, June 25, 2013 Legal Risk: The applicable region specific Legal criteria. 9
10 Next Steps Request For Comment: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risks Specific To Wireless Device Payment Plan Agreements, July 11, 2017 is available for review at the following websites: Market participants are encouraged to submit comments through S&P Global Ratings website by August 11, Comments may be submitted one of two ways: Click Criteria then click All Requests for Comments. Please include the title of the RFC. Comments will be attributed unless you request they be made anonymous. Comments received as described above will be considered and published with the final criteria. 10
11 Analytical Contacts Allyn Arden, CFA Director Corporate (1) Mark O Neil Lead Analyst ABS (1) mark.o neil@spglobal.com Sarah Wyeth Criteria Officer Corporate (1) sarah.wyeth@spglobal.com Farooq Omer Managing Director (1) farooq.omer@spglobal.com John Anglim Sector Lead ABS (1) john.anglim@spglobal.com James Traynor Senior Director (1) james.traynor@spglobal.com Joseph Sheridan Senior Criteria Officer ABS (1) joseph.sheridan@spglobal.com 11
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