African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable

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1 Research Update: African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Matthew D Pirnie, Johannesburg (27) ; matthew.pirnie@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: Neil Gosrani, London (44) ; neil.gosrani@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Rating Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JULY 12,

2 Research Update: African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable Overview Following a review of Nigeria-based African Reinsurance Corp. under our revised insurance criteria, we are affirming our 'A-' ratings on the company. The ratings predominantly reflect our view of the company's satisfactory business risk profile and strong financial risk profile, built on its highly diverse premium and strong franchise within the African reinsurance market, as well as its very strong capital and earnings. The stable outlook reflects our opinion that Africa Re will maintain capital adequacy at the 'AAA' confidence level, as defined by our capital model, over the next 24 months. It also reflects our expectation that the company will not significantly alter its geographic footprint or investment profile. Rating Action On July 12, 2013, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'A-' insurer financial strength and counterparty credit ratings on Nigeria-based African Reinsurance Corp. (Africa Re). The outlook is stable. Rationale The ratings reflect our view of Africa Re's satisfactory business risk profile and strong financial risk profile, built on a strong competitive position in Africa's reinsurance market, as well as its very strong capital and earnings. We derive our 'a-' anchor for Africa Re from the combination of these two factors. We view potential modifying factors--adequate enterprise risk management (ERM), satisfactory management and governance, and exceptional liquidity--as neutral for the ratings. The ratings on Africa Re reflect the company's stand-alone credit strengths and do not include any uplift for support from the Nigerian sovereign. At the same time, they are not constrained by the sovereign rating due to Africa Re's significant asset and premium diversification. Overall, we consider that Africa Re faces moderate industry and country risk, owing to its mandate and focus on Africa. Our assessment balances the relatively high contribution to group premium from its wholly owned subsidiary, African Reinsurance Corporation South Africa (ARCSA), which contributed approximately 31% of gross written premium (GWP) on Dec , with the company's exposure to a number of higher-risk operating areas. JULY 12,

3 Research Update: African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable In our view, Africa Re has a strong competitive position in Africa, including a 10% market share across the continent. In addition, the company benefits from its locally admitted status across the continent, which in our view differentiates it from its peers. Furthermore, the company is well diversified within Africa, which should benefit its long-term stability and growth. Concentrations in South Africa (approximately 30% of GWP) and Nigeria (15% of GWP) exist, although in our view this is understandable given the relative economic weightings of these countries in Africa. We view Africa Re's capital and earnings as very strong. We expect the company's capital levels to remain at the 'AAA' confidence level over the next two-to-three years. This opinion balances fairly robust premium growth with equally strong returns. As a result, we believe that any weakening of capital adequacy is likely to be fairly slow. Nevertheless, Africa Re's capital base remains relatively modest compared with international reinsurance peers, which constrains our overall assessment. In our base case, we expect a combined (loss and expense) ratio of below 97% and a return on revenue of between 11% and 12%. In our view, Africa Re's risk position reflects moderate risks. This is based on its concentration in financial institutions and relatively high foreign exchange risk owing to its operations throughout Africa, which has caused some volatility in bottom-line profitability over the past few years. Conversely, the company invests more than 80% of its portfolio in investment-grade securities outside Africa; as a result, there is relatively low equity exposure. We view Africa Re's financial flexibility as strong, reflecting our view that the company is likely to receive long-term capital support from the sovereign and its existing institutional shareholders. Africa Re has no debt outstanding; therefore, despite its limited track record of accessing the capital markets, it has significant capacity to increase leverage if needed. Africa Re's ERM and management and governance practices are neutral factors for the rating. Our assessment of ERM as adequate reflects our opinion that the company has appropriate risk-management controls, tools, and culture in place to manage the risks it undertakes. The importance of ERM to the rating is low, mainly because of the company's limited exposure to natural catastrophes and as we note that it has excess capital relative to risks. Management and governance is satisfactory, in our opinion, benefitting from a stable management team, and positive operational effectiveness. Governance levels compare well with the highest rated African institutions. Africa Re's liquidity is exceptional, in our view, owing to its $1 billion asset portfolio of liquid securities and cash, which covers total liabilities including technical provisions 1.4x. The ratings on Africa Re reflect the company's stand-alone credit strengths and do not include any uplift for support from the Nigerian sovereign or its multilateral shareholders. This reflects the fragmented ownership and JULY 12,

4 Research Update: African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable relatively weaker ratings of the--predominantly Africa-based--sovereign shareholders and the institution's largely commercial focus. Although the company is domiciled in Nigeria, the rating is not constrained by the sovereign rating due to its limited balance sheet exposure to the country. At Dec. 31, 2012, 15% of the company's total premium and less than 5% of assets (excluding fixed assets) were located in Nigeria. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our opinion that Africa Re will maintain capital adequacy at the 'AAA' confidence level, as defined by our capital model, over the next 24 months. It also reflects our expectation that the company will not significantly alter its geographic footprint or investment profile. We are unlikely to lower the ratings, although rapid premium growth into less mature insurance markets, resulting in a higher proportion of total premium coming from higher risk areas, could constrain the ratings. However, we expect the proportion of business emanating from South Africa to remain at current levels for the next two years. The ratings could also come under pressure if a higher proportion of the investment portfolio was moved onshore--into equities or lower-rated securities--or if capital fell below the 'AAA' confidence level. Rating Score Snapshot Financial Strength Rating A-/Stable Anchor a- Business Risk Profile Satisfactory IICRA Moderate Risk Competitive Position Strong Financial Risk Profile Strong Capital and Earnings Very Strong Risk Position Moderate Risk Financial Flexibility Strong Modifiers 0 ERM and Management 0 Enterprise Risk Management Adequate Management and Governance Satisfactory Holistic Analysis 0 Liquidity Exceptional Support 0 Group Support 0 JULY 12,

5 Research Update: African Reinsurance Corp. 'A-' Ratings Affirmed After Insurance Criteria Change; Outlook Stable Government Support 0 IICRA Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessment. Related Criteria And Research Related criteria Insurers: Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Enterprise Risk Management, May 7, 2013 Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011 Refined Methodology And Assumptions For Analyzing Insurer Capital Adequacy Using The Risk-Based Insurance Capital Model, June 7, 2010 Criteria Update: Factoring Country Risk Into Insurer Financial Strength Ratings, Feb. 11, 2003 Related research List Of Issuers With Ratings Under Criteria Observation Due To S&P's New Insurers Rating Methodology, May 7, 2013 Standard & Poor's Assigns Insurance Industry And Country Risk Assessments, May 7, 2013 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed African Reinsurance Corp. Counterparty Credit Rating Local Currency Financial Strength Rating Local Currency A-/Stable/-- A-/Stable/-- Additional Contact: Insurance Ratings Europe; InsuranceInteractive_Europe@standardandpoors.com Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) JULY 12,

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