2 + 2 =? Guy Carpenter

Transcription

1 2 + 2 =? 1

2 The Financial Crisis A Greek Tragedy Hubris: The Bubble Nemesis: Collapse and Insolvency Catharsis: Purge and Recovery 2

3 1 January 2009 Renewal World Property Catastrophe Rate-on-line Index = P 3

4 1 January 2009 Renewal Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Indices 1990 = P United Kingdom Continental Europe United States 4

5 Florida 1 June 09 Renewal Florida 1 June 2009 Cat Price Changes 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Higer Layers Middle Layers Lower Layers Source: 5

6 2009 Risk Adjusted Pricing US Nationals at FOT vs. 08 FOT 2009 Firm Order Terms as a % of Max Quote Avg Quote Min Quote 89% 96% 117% Approx. 11% - 14% Increase in 09 FOT as compared to 08 FOT Approx. 14% - 16% Increase in 09 FOT as compared to 08 FOT Higher Layers Lower Layers 6

7 A Brave New World S&P Reinsurance Ratings Distribution 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% YE07 Current/YE08 AA- A+ A A- Not Rated Standard & Poor s rating distribution for 31 reinsurers based on shareholders funds. Source:, Standard & Poor s 7

8 Global Reinsurance Composite 1 st Half 2009 Earnings USDbn (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) 6M08 6M09 Non-Life Underwriting Result Life Underwriting Result Investment Income Realized Gains (Losses) Unrealized Gains (Losses) Interest Expense Other Taxes Net Income Source: 8

9 Global Reinsurance Composite Change in Shareholders Funds 1 st Half 2009 USDbn SHF YE08 Net Income Shares Repurchased Dividends paid Unrealized Gains (Losses) Forex Movements Capital Increase Other SHF 6M09 Note: Provisional showing 16/20 companies. The Other category is likely to include unrealised gains and will be updated when more detained accounts are disclosed. Source: 9

10 Global Reinsurance Composite Cashflow 1 st Half 2009 v 1 st Half 2008 USDbn (5) (10) (15) Operating Cash Flow Investing Cash Flow Financing Cash Flow Other Cash Flow Net Increase in Cash 6M08 6M09 Source: 10

11 Change in Shareholders Funds 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Validus CNA Financial Fairfax XL American Financial Hartford Liberty Mutual Arch Re ACE Partner Re Zurich Swiss Re AWAC Montpelier Transatlantic Hannover Re Change in YE08 White Mountains Endurance Everest Re Ren Re Axis Change in 9M09 Max Capital Lancashire Mapfre Platinum W.R. Berkley Aspen Chubb Flagstone HCC Travelers SCOR Munich Re Old Republic Source: 11

12 OIS Spread below 30 bps Debt financing unavailable Apr 05 Jun 05 Aug 05 Oct 05 Dec 05 Feb 06 Apr 06 Jun 06 Aug 06 Oct 06 Dec 06 Feb 07 Apr 07 Jun 07 Aug 07 Oct 07 Dec 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jun 08 Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Source :, Bloomberg data 12

13 US 10 year AA corporate spreads approaching 100 bps Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul year US AA corporate spread over Treasury bonds Source :, Bloomberg Data 13

14 CDS spreads tightening Source :, Bloomberg data 14

15 90 80 VIX Index - a measure of implied stock market volatility Capital markets markets closed S&L crisis LTCM Asian Contagion 11 September Enron Tech Bubble Bursts Back to normal? Source: /Bloomberg 15

16 Russell 3000 P&C Insurance Index Book Value 2Q capital rebound 100 Bull market Slow awareness of the problem of legacy reserves/ deterioration of reserves No marked decline after KRW because companies were able to recapitalise easily 50 Market falls Major decline explained by credit crunch/ fall in asset values/ major catastrohes 40 A long term trend? Source :, Bloomberg data Source: /Bloomberg 16

17 World P&C Insurance Growth 2008 Industrialised countries hit by recession, emerging markets solid Middle East/Central Asia Africa CEE Latin America/Caribbean SE Asia Em erging Markets Oceania Japan Continental Europe Western Europe North Am erica Industrial countries Average World -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2008 Annual average Source: Swiss Re 17

18 US P&C Premiums GPW down 1.9% NPW down 1.8% 90% 80% 70% 60% USDbn % 40% 30% 20% 10% NPW/GPW GPW NPW Retention Rate 0% Source:, Highline 18

19 US P&C Sector Gross Premium Written Growth Rates % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% % Industry Aggregate Personal Auto Liability Commercial Auto Liability Workers' Comp Comm Multi-Peril General Liability Med Mal Fire & Allied Source:, Highline 19

20 Long-tail clouds on the horizon? US P&C initial accident year loss ratios & subsequent development 10% 80% 75% 5% 70% 0%? 65% 60% - 5% 55% 50% - 10% % Ac cident year loss ra tio development % (L HS ) Initial loss ratio pick (RHS ) Source :, Highline Data 20

21 EU inflation expectations 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Inflation linked to nominal sovereign spread Implied forward rate of inflation at Y i Source: Bloomberg data, 21

22 Outlook - absent shocks Balance sheet restoration Diversification Demand pressure Generic single A market Capital markets thawing: Cheap debt Stabilising stock markets Buoyant catastrophe bonds Capital: returns or retirement Long-tail cloud Ample Capacity = Market Drift 22

23 Contact: Chris Klein T: +44 (0) E: Capitals are increased by parsimony, and diminished by prodigality and misconduct. Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, Book II, Chapter III

24 Important Disclosure The information contained in this presentation provides only a general overview of subjects covered, is not intended to be taken as advice regarding any individual situation and should not be relied upon as such. Insureds should consult their insurance and legal advisors regarding specific coverage issues. This document or any portion of the information it contains may not be copied or reproduced in any form without the permission of, except that clients of need not obtain such permission when using this report for their internal purposes. Copyright and Company Ltd. All rights reserved. and Company Ltd is an Appointed Representative of Marsh Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 24