Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the Strain June 2008
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1 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the Strain June 2008
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3 BENFIELD GROUP LIMITED June 2008 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain Benfield Research Leon Janeke T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: Angela Coad T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: Benfield Research T: +44 (0) F: +44 (0) E: BENFIELD LIMITED Benfield Group Limited (Benfield) has used due care in the preparation of this document. Our information has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but its accuracy and/or completeness is not guaranteed. The content of this document is made available on an "as-is" basis and neither Benfield (nor any member of its group of companies) will accept any liability whatsoever to any person for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. Benfield (for itself and on behalf of each member of its group of companies) reserves all rights to the content of this document. Benfield Limited is authorised by the Financial Services Authority under the reference number
4 CONTENTS Chapter page Take the strain 3 Premium income 4 Premium income and market share 4 Market conditions 7 Earnings 9 Underwriting performance 9 Net income 10 Capital 12 Credit ratings 13 Appendix 1 14
5 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 3 Take the strain At the ready The Benfield Bermuda Quarterly (BBQ) group stands ready to face another hurricane season. The group finds itself positioned in a tug of war regarding how to manage the opposing challenges of capital management given a competitive market and the prospect of above average storm frequency in the North Atlantic. Flat market Gross premiums written slipped 2% to a total of USD17.6bn. Companies showed a preference for expanding or maintaining insurance lines and cutting back on reinsurance in a market where the greater part of business remains under pricing pressure. Rising commodity prices led a few companies to expand into the agricultural re/insurance space. Floor and ceiling Some companies felt that price adequacy must be reaching a floor at the levels seen in recent renewals. The view that primary retentions had hit a ceiling and would begin to fall during the remainder of 2008 was also expressed. Yet some companies also observed that the heavy losses experienced in 1Q 2008 had done nothing to reverse current pricing. Comparison of the current market environment with the trough of the soft may serve as a warning to over-eager market participants. Diminished earnings 1Q 2008 earnings were hit by volatility in the financial markets. In aggregate, investment income, including realised losses, fell by nearly USD1bn and net income was 34% lower at USD2.2bn. Reserve releases of USD732mn provided considerable support to underwriting profitability, benefiting the combined ratio by 6.7 percentage points (p.p.). The overall combined ratio was little changed at 86.3%. Capital tension The aggregate capital base stood at USD73bn at the end of the first quarter, level with that at 31 December Management must carefully weigh the decision to buy back stock at perceived cheap levels against the need to retain capital in the event of an active storm season, particularly given the uncertain capital markets. The USD1bn of stock repurchased in 1Q 2008 represents a decelerating trend and perhaps suggests that the answer to this capital conundrum is now more finely poised.
6 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 4 Premium income The BBQ group gross premiums written (GPW) slipped 2% to total USD17.6bn. The growth of insurance businesses within this top line result masked the extent of the softening reinsurance market. Increased primary writings by the majority of the group, particularly in the crop insurance market, was a notable trend. Abundance of capacity and higher retentions by cedants were reasons oft cited for the weakening price environment. Two-thirds of the group took advantage of the availability of cheaper reinsurance, with the cession rate rising two percentage points to 19%. Losses in the first quarter appear to have done little to alter the current pricing trajectory. Premium income and market share Table 1 shows gross premiums written by company for 1Q Growth generally reported in primary segments was enough to counter any significant fall in overall premium levels for the BBQ group. Only six of the eighteen BBQ group companies reported increases in the top-line. Crop re/insurance was the common thread running through the few growth stories. Retentions were marginally decreased as companies looked to avail themselves of the cheaper reinsurance generally available in the market. Table 1 1Q 2008 GPW Company announcements USDmn 1Q Q Q 2008 Change 2007/8 ACE 4,511 4,496 4,409-2% XL 3,243 3,273 2,936-10% PartnerRe 1,373 1,302 1,439 11% Axis 1,165 1,303 1,264-3% White Mountains 1,229 1,202 1,178-2% Arch 1,168 1,211 1,053-13% Everest 1,055 1, % Endurance % Aspen % RenaissanceRe % Validus % AWAC % Max Capital % Platinum % Montpelier % Flagstone % IPC % Lancashire % Total 17,740 17,863 17,558-2%
7 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 5 Catastrophe specialists, RenaissanceRe and IPC, reported the largest reduction in premiums, while Everest, Arch and XL also reported double-digit p.p. falls. Five companies posted double-digit gains in revenue, with Endurance, Max Capital and Validus the most significant of the gainers. RenaissanceRe premiums fell by 17% to USD527mn in 1Q GPW was 9% lower, at USD364mn, in the core unit of catastrophe business, which accounted for 69% of total GPW. The company expects full year revenue figures in this line to decline approximately 10%. Reduced revenue in the Specialty and Individual Risk segments (-32% and -34% respectively) reflected continued price softening, cedants increased retentions and the non-renewal of certain contracts. The company maintained its expectations, for the full year, that premiums in Specialty and Individual Risk would fall by 25% and 5% respectively. Specifically within Individual Risk, the anticipated growth of multi-peril crop business is expected to mitigate the extent of the fall seen in the first quarter due to the agreed acquisition of Agro National. 1 The 16% decline in GPW at IPC reflected a number of factors. New business premiums of USD23mn were more than offset by a reduction of USD39mn from existing business owing to programme restructuring including changes in client retentions and, to a lesser extent, pricing. Approximately USD17mn of other business was not renewed as a result of unsatisfactory terms and conditions and cedants not purchasing cover. Furthermore, reinstatement premiums were USD4mn lower and excess of loss (XoL) premium adjustments were USD2mn lower. 2 Everest Re reported a 14% fall in premiums, which was outside the 5% to 10% range that the company had estimated in late CEO Joe Taranto indicated that the US reinsurance segment was culpable for the decline. Craig Eisenacher, CFO, commented that Casualty (reinsurance) continues to become more competitive with lower rates, demands for higher ceding commissions and relaxed terms, and ceding companies retaining more business net. 3 The reinsurance segment of Everest Re, which represented approximately 75% of the group business in the first quarter, reported a 17% fall in revenue relative to a 3% decline in the insurance segment. Within the reinsurance segment, US Reinsurance fell 34%, while Specialty was stable and International increased 8%. Arch reported an overall 22% decline in reinsurance revenues and a 5% fall within the insurance segment. Commenting on the reinsurance segment, Dinos Iordanou said, Average rates continue to decline at a low double-digit level, with terms and conditions generally holding, except for requests for increased ceding commissions. Our casualty lines, which include professional liability and D&O were down 27%, and our marine and aviation lines were down 49%. On the other hand, our property cat book grew 32%. 4 XL posted a 22% decrease in property and casualty reinsurance revenues relative to 3% growth in insurance. Henry Keeling, CFO, commented In reinsurance, the fact that we do not focus on our top line was particularly apparent this quarter. While we did take advantage of some new business opportunities, much of the reduction in GPW resulted from selective non-renewal of unattractive 1 Renaissance Re, earnings conference call, 30 April IPC Holdings, press release, 24 April Everest Re Group, earnings conference call, 22 April Arch Capital Group, earnings conference call, 25 April 2008
8 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 6 business. This was most notable in our US casualty portfolio. 5 The company expects to bind USD50mn of business in the second quarter of 2008 that had previously been written in 1Q 2007 adjusting for this amount, the decline in reinsurance revenue would have been 18%. The addition of USD413mn of premium from ARMtech, the crop insurance specialist acquired in late 2007 provided a major boost and 1Q 2008 premiums reported at Endurance increased by 52%. Excluding this, premiums fell 20%. Growth in crop insurance more than offset reductions in reinsurance business, particularly property catastrophe, casualty and agricultural reinsurance. Declines in the latter were attributed to the acquisition of ARMtech. Mike McGuire commented on the purchase of reinsurance for its primary agriculture business saying, We took advantage of the competitive reinsurance market to purchase reinsurance on our own agricultural insurance book 6 Max Capital, like Endurance, also benefited from an increase in agricultural business, however for Max, the uplift came within the reinsurance segment. The additional USD85mn of agricultural business written represented the bulk of the overall increase in GPW for Max Capital. Within the reinsurance segment, workers compensation writings were down nearly two-thirds to USD7mn in the first quarter. 7 Validus reported a 38% increase in GPW, reflecting the consolidation of Talbot within the 1Q results. On a pro-forma consolidated basis, Validus would have reported USD565mn in GPW in 1Q 2007, with the Talbot contribution stable between 1Q 2007 and 1Q 2008 at approximately USD200mn. Validus Re reported a 14% reduction in revenues, with premium levels lower in all lines of property (particularly proportional business), marine (particularly per-risk XoL) and specialty. 8 Ed Noonan, CEO, commented From a competitive perspective, the US property large risk market is the short-tail line experiencing the most aggressive rate competition. We are seeing rate decreases in the high teens to 20% range, on average, with some examples of much higher decreases. 9 5 XL Capital, earnings conference call, 23 April Endurance Specialty Holdings, earnings conference call, 2 May Max Capital, press release, 6 May Validus Holdings, 1Q 2008 investor financial supplement 9 Validus Holdings, earnings conference call, 2 May 2008
9 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 7 Chart 2 Distribution of 1Q 2008 GPW Company announcements, Benfield Research Total GPW USD17.6bn ACE 25% XL 17% PartnerRe 8% Axis 7% White Mountains 7% Arch 6% Everest 5% Endurance 5% Aspen 3% RenaissanceRe 3% Validus 3% AWAC 2% Max Capital 2% Platinum 2% Montpelier 2% Flagstone 1% IPC 1% Lancashire 1% Market conditions Despite a high frequency and severity of risk losses in the first quarter, considered to be second in magnitude only to the 3Q 2001 (9/11), there were few signs to suggest that the market would not continue to weaken. Loss estimates of USD4bn to over USD6bn apparently did little to support pricing,, with Arch CEO Iordanou commenting, We haven t really seen the market react across the board. On the few accounts that are up for renewals and that were subject to losses there is some sort of adjustment. But right now, based on what we re seeing in the market, we don t see the losses changing the trends of still downward pressure on the property business. 10 In practically all other lines of business, the immediate pricing forecast was generally downbeat with some indications of ongoing acceptable pricing. Companies appeared to recognise the importance of underwriting on a technical basis and the virtues of discipline in a market characterised by acute competition. AWAC CEO Scott Carmilani said, We continue to see rate declines across the board as a result of increased appetite of standard markets and abundant capacity. We are clearly operating in the down slope of a soft market cycle. We see that as an opportunity to differentiate ourselves with underwriting expertise. 11 John Charman, CEO of Axis, differentiated between the pressures impacting the primary and reinsurance markets, warning, The underwriting conditions prevailing throughout the insurance market place are similar to those entering the softest part of the trough that occurred between 1997 and 2001 and as we have noted for some time the reinsurance market remains relatively stable with small pockets of increasingly irrational behaviour. Our reinsurance portfolio continues to be more significantly impacted by cedants retaining more business. Axis management anticipated reductions for US property reinsurance business to be consistent with the 5% to 10% 10 Arch Capital Holdings, earnings conference call, 25 April AWAC Holdings, earnings conference call, 9 May 2008
10 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 8 declines seen at the 1 January renewals. On the primary side, all business lines were viewed as under extreme pricing pressure with the exception of financial institutions business which was stabilising. Large property accounts were subjected to rate reduction demands of between 20% and 50%. On a positive note for property cat reinsurance, Charman felt that a pricing floor had been reached. 12 Everest Re CEO Taranto saw the current levels of retention at primary level as placing strain on pricing, particularly in casualty business. He commented Casualty continues to become more competitive with lower rates, demands for higher ceding commissions and relaxed terms, and ceding companies retaining more net. As a result we continue to see less business that meets our underwriting criteria. 13 Jim Bryce, CEO of IPC, felt that the trend of increasing retentions may be coming to an end, commenting, We saw in 06 retentions starting to go up. They went up dramatically again in 07. And I think this first quarter of 08 is probably the last calibration I would see retentions going up April 2008 renewal Axis reported pricing in Japan at the 1 April renewal down by 10% to 15% while Partner Re CEO Patrick Thiele expected the lacklustre pricing environment to prevail, commenting, Virtually all of our lines of business and geographies are becoming more competitive, with prices declining. The most recent example is the 1 April renewals in Japan, Korea and China, where prices continue to erode I really don t see any change in this competitive environment for this year, nor at the 1 January renewals next year. This environment will continue to be our reality for some time forward. 15 Validus management appeared generally to agree with this view, commenting that the company remained underweight in Japan, with windstorm generally down 5% and earthquake coverage unchanged. 16 The market prognosis given the lack of any exceptionally large losses appears to be mixed. Market players have, however, indicated on a variety of different areas such as retentions, capacity and terms and conditions that the pendulum may be beginning to swing back towards the underwriters favour. Discipline remains paramount in a market in which many feel there are large swathes of under-priced business. John Charman, paraphrasing Winston Churchill, perhaps put it most succinctly saying, Without market discipline and management oversight, the insurance industry is like a flock of sheep without a shepherd and without innovation and high standards, it is a corpse Axis Capital Holdings, earnings conference call, 29 April Everest Re Group, earnings conference call, 22 April IPC Holdings, earnings conference call, 25 April PartnerRe, earnings conference call, 29 April Validus Holdings, earnings conference call, 2 May Axis Capital Holdings, earnings conference call, 29 April 2008
11 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 9 Earnings Total net income for the BBQ group fell by 34% to USD2.2bn, principally reflecting weaker investment returns. 1Q 2008 featured a markedly higher level of risk losses with industry estimates ranging between USD4bn and USD6bn. In many cases, cedants higher retentions shielded the underwriting results of the BBQ group. Continued reserve releases also helped the aggregate combined ratio, which at 86.3%, showed a marginal improvement on the comparative period. All companies reported profits. Underwriting performance Reserve releases, in aggregate amounting to USD732mn (1Q 2007: USD513mn) reduced the combined ratio by 6.7p.p. (1Q 2007: 4.6p.p.) to 86.3%. IPC reported the lowest combined ratio in the group, at 23.5% with an exceptionally low loss ratio of 5.9% as shown in Table 2. White Mountains reported the highest expense ratio (39.0%) in the group and, with a combined ratio of 107.7%, was the only company, to breach the 100% level. Table 2 Combined ratios Company announcements Combined ratio Loss ratio Combined ratio % point change 1Q Q Q Q Q 2008 IPC 42.8% 67.1% 23.5% 5.9% RenaissanceRe 53.7% 65.7% 51.4% 26.6% Lancashire 62.8% 47.3% 61.2% 38.9% 13.9 Flagstone 89.1% 74.2% 66.9% 29.4% -7.3 AWAC 85.1% 79.7% 78.2% 52.5% -1.5 Platinum 85.2% 87.0% 78.3% 53.1% -8.7 Axis 77.7% 79.0% 79.2% 54.9% 0.2 Validus 88.4% 62.7% 80.1% 48.0% 17.4 Endurance 84.9% 86.7% 84.4% 50.9% -2.3 ACE 89.3% 87.2% 84.5% 55.6% -2.6 Aspen 90.4% 79.4% 85.4% 52.9% 6.0 Arch 89.4% 84.6% 87.0% 57.1% 2.4 Everest 94.5% 82.4% 89.1% 59.8% 6.8 Montpelier 75.7% 65.5% 89.7% 54.5% 24.2 PartnerRe 91.6% 89.5% 92.0% 61.2% 2.5 XL 97.6% 90.4% 93.6% 64.5% 3.2 Max Capital 98.2% 97.5% 93.6% 68.9% -3.9 White Mountains 101.0% 106.2% 107.7% 68.7% 1.4 Weighted Average 89.4% 86.8% 86.3% 56.5% -0.5
12 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 10 All companies except Everest and White Mountains benefited from reserve releases. Aggregate releases amounted to approximately USD732mn, which reduced the aggregate loss and combined ratios by around 6.7p.p. AWAC reported the largest proportional benefit from releases of approximately 19.4%. The vast majority of the releases stemmed from property reserves related to windstorms. Both Everest and White Mountains reported slightly less than 3p.p. of reserve strengthening. The Everest strengthening was primarily the result of an arbitration loss related to a 2001 retrocessional coverage, 18 while White Mountains had USD45mn of adverse development on construction defect business written prior to Net income Total net income of the BBQ group decreased by 34%, or by USD1.1bn, to USD2.2bn as shown in Table 3. Only five of eighteen companies in the BBQ group reported improvements in net income relative to their position in 1Q Ten members of the BBQ group reported realised losses on investments, with the group reporting an aggregate loss of USD561mn reversing from a profit of USD222mn in 1Q 2007 reflecting turmoil in the investment markets, characterised by illiquidity. Net investment income was also 6% lower, at USD2bn, relative to the comparative quarter. The aggregate decrease in total investment income, including realised losses, was USD916mn. Montpelier reported the largest percentage point fall in net income as several of the large risk losses hit the direct and facultative property accounts and the combined ratio increased to 89.7% (65.5%). In conjunction with lower investment income and realised losses, Montpelier reported a 100% fall in net income to USD0.3mn. Max Capital was similarly affected by weakened investment performance. The company s alternative investment portfolio produced a negative return of 2.1% and realised losses of USD26mn. XL continued to take losses on sub-prime exposed assets. Realised losses of USD102mn were driven by other than temporary impairments (OTTI) of USD115mn with USD49mn of this related to sub-prime exposed assets. The company reported a 57% reduction in net income to USD244mn in 1Q Validus reported the largest increase in net income to USD83mn (+50%). The result was driven by the increased scale of the company post the Talbot acquisition, despite the combined ratio increasing 17.4p.p. to 80.1%. Platinum posted growth in net income of 45% to USD105mn on improved underwriting results driven by increased reserve releases. Favourable development amounted to USD29.5mn and benefited the combined ratio by nearly 10p.p. Approximately twothirds of the releases stemmed from property and marine lines while the balance came from casualty business. 20 Only three other companies, AWAC, IPC and Axis reported growth in net income in 1Q Everest Re Group, SEC filing 10-Q 19 White Mountains, SEC filing 10-Q 20 Platinum, 1Q 2008 financial supplement
13 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 11 Table Net income Company announcements USDmn 1Q Q Q 2008 Change 2007/8 ACE % Axis % XL % Arch % RenaissanceRe % AWAC % PartnerRe % Platinum % IPC % Lancashire % Validus % Aspen % Everest % Endurance % White Mountains % Flagstone % Max Capital % Montpelier % Total 2,551 3,283 2,157-34%
14 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 12 Capital Capital of the BBQ group was stable at USD73bn between 31 December 2007 and 31 March Share repurchase programmes continued with slightly more than USD1bn of stock retired in the quarter. Lower unrealised gains were a further restraining factor. The relative abundance of capital may well be tested as the sector heads into the hurricane season with predictions of above average storm frequency in Nine companies posted advances in capital during 1Q 2008 as illustrated in Table 4. AWAC and Lancashire led the pack (+7%) spurred by retained profits and the absence of share repurchases in the quarter. The USD1bn of repurchases that took place represented a slowdown of the rate at which shares were bought back in previous quarters. Management may well be circumspect given the potential difficulty of raising capital in the event of a damaging wind season. XL reported the largest fall (-7%) due to an increase in unrealised losses on investments of approximately USD1.1bn in the quarter. This was predominantly driven by widening credit spreads on corporate and structured credit assets and also included USD130mn related to the weakening of the US dollar. Management remained comfortable with the level of capital as CFO Brian Nocco commented Our capital levels, as we indicated last quarter, were very strong, and in fact supportive of ratings at a level higher than our current ratings. When we look at our capital today it still very solidly supports our risks and our book of business. 21 Table 4 Shareholders funds Company announcements USDmn 31 Dec Dec Mar 2008 Change 2007/8 ACE 14,278 16,677 16,735 0% XL 10,131 9,948 9,255-7% Everest 5,108 5,685 5,633-1% Axis % White Mountains 4,455 4,713 4,679-1% PartnerRe 3,786 4,322 4,473 3% Arch 3,591 4,036 4,005-1% RenaissanceRe 3,280 3,478 3,386-3% Aspen 2,389 2,818 2,923 4% Endurance 2,298 2,512 2,538 1% AWAC 2,220 2,240 2,395 7% IPC 1,991 2,126 2,148 1% Validus 1,193 1,935 1,991 3% Platinum 1,858 1,998 1,929-3% Montpelier 1,493 1,653 1,570-5% Max Capital 1,390 1,584 1,512-5% Lancashire 1,138 1,216 1,296 7% Flagstone 865 1,210 1,242 3% Total % 21 XL Capital, earnings conference call, 23 April 2008
15 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 13 Credit ratings There was very little action from the ratings agencies in the 1Q A.M. Best downgraded XL Capital on 25 January while Montpelier had its outlook revised by S&P to stable from negative on 9 May Standard and Poor s (S&P) affirmed the financial strength rating of Montpelier at A- and revised the outlook to stable from negative on 9 May S&P commented, The revised outlook reflects the company s meaningful improvements in enterprise risk management (ERM) over the past two years. It is also based on management's reduction of the group's risk exposure to a single event after Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005, which revealed a higher risk profile than expected. Montpelier materially reduced its gross limits and purchased more reinsurance. The agency further commented on the reduced property catastrophe retro business and discontinued offshore marine business. 22 The change in outlook meant a revision of the negative view that S&P had held since September XL Capital was downgraded to A from A+ by A.M. Best on 25 January The downgrade followed the announcement by XL that it expected to take a Q4 charge of between USD1.5bn to USD1.7bn related to its credit-exposed investments and businesses. The agency commented The downgrade is based on A.M. Best s opinion that XL Capital s risk management controls are below expectations as the company takes an unanticipated charge, albeit below the operating line, continuing the trend established by the litany of NAC Re related reserve charges, the Winterthur acquisition charge and the higher than anticipated charges from the 2005 catastrophe season. The agency went on to warn that further adverse charges relating to these lines of business that were above the agency s expectation would result in further rating actions. 23 Table 5 in the Appendix shows the ratings of the BBQ group and other Bermuda-based reinsurers. 22 S&P press release, 9 May A.M. Best press release, 25 January 2008
16 Benfield Bermuda Quarterly 1Q 2008 Take the strain PAGE 14 Appendix 1 Table 5 Financial strength ratings Standard & Poor's, A.M. Best Standard & Poor s* A.M. Best * ACE Tempest Re A+ A+ Aeolus NR NR Amlin Bermuda Ltd A A Arch Reinsurance Ltd A A Ariel Reinsurance Ltd NR A- Aspen Ins UK/Aspen Ins Bermuda/Aspen US A/A/NR A/A/A- AWAC A- A AXIS A A Catlin Insurance Co A- A CastlePoint Reinsurance Company NR A- Endurance A A Everest AA- A+ Flagstone Reinsurance Ltd NR A- Harbor Point Re Ltd A- A Hannover Re Bermuda Ltd AA- A Hiscox Insurance Co (Bermuda) Ltd NR A- IPCRe Ltd A- A Ironshore Insurance Ltd NR A- Lancashire Insurance Ltd NR A- Max Capital NR A- Montpelier Re A- A- New Castle Re NR A- Norton Re NR NR PartnerRe AA- A+ Platinum Underwriters NR A RenaissanceRe AA- A+ Top Layer Re AA A+ Validus Reinsurance Ltd NR A- White Mountains (Folksamerica/Sirius) A-/A- A-/A XL Re Ltd A+ A *Ratings as of 29 May 2008
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