DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ZEALAND EXPOSURE DATASET FOR USE IN LOSS MODELLING. Sheng-Lin Lin, Jim Cousins, Andrew King GNS Science, New Zealand

Transcription

1 DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ZEALAND EXPOSURE DATASET FOR USE IN LOSS MODELLING Sheng-Lin Lin, Jim Cousins, Andrew King GNS Science, New Zealand

2 Why we need loss modelling?? What is exposure dataset and why we need it??

3 Natural disaster risks in Australia & New Zealand [Munich RE]

4 An asset owner is seeking to purchase insurance and wants to know what losses could be incurred, and with what probability An insurance company needs that same information, for all its policy holders, in order not only to set premiums but also to purchase reinsurance Risk assessment for the above evidence-based decision making:

5 Loss modelling components & procedures Exposure Data Vulnerability & Consequence Hazard [IST Group, 2004] Loss Modelling

6 Outline Introduction Exposure dataset Hawke s Bay exposure dataset development available datasets methodologies results Conclusions

7 Introduction EARTHQUAKE OUR COMMUNITY Source size - Magnitude Intensity Distribution HAZARD MODEL Exposed Assets How Vulnerable? Assets Where are they What are their Attributes Science Sector Damage State Community Definition Engineering Sector Disruption % capacity Repair / Reinstatement Cost Economics, Social Engineering Sector 7 Business Interruption

8 Introduction Hazards & Vulnerability Volcanoe Earthquake Tsunami Landslide

9 Exposure dataset

10 Exposure dataset FOOT_ID nzmge nzmgn Storeys Year RV ($2009) Nconstype Nstrqual OccN OccD AmpCls LqCls LsCls C_Val_Tot , , ,026, , ,499, , ,258, , , , , , ,789, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,500

11 Total population is 161,500 as of June Around 81 percent of the region's population lives in the Napier-Hastings conurbation. Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development Background information

12 Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development Available datasets Building footprint layers (boundary, area, central location, height, etc.) Earthquake Prone Building data (address, year built, %NBS, etc.) Quotable Value property data (X/Y coordinates, use category, floor/footprint areas, construction decades, roof/wall claddings, etc.) NZ-wide coverage, but property based Statistics New Zealand (geographic boundary, deprivation index, population, etc.) Ministry of Education (school rolls, teachers & staff, etc.)

13 Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development Methodologies INITIAL DATASETS MANIPULATION a) Assign unique identifier b) Detection & handling of non-buildings c) Reallocation of missing attributes d) Detection & removal of errors BUILDING DATASET DEVELOPMENT a) Determine the building inventory b) Assign building attributes e.g. use category, age, construction type, storey, construction cost etc.

14 Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development BUILDING DATASET DEVELOPMENT NT Allocation of use category Use Category Agr Com Ind Oth Res Avg. SC (m 2 ) ,150 1, Allocation of ages and construction type Decade Agr Com Ind Oth Res pre on Construction Type Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall Reinforced Concrete Moment Resisting Frame Steel Braced Frame Steel Moment Resisting Frame Light Timber Tilt Up Panel (reinforced concrete) Light Industrial (often with portal frame) Advanced Design (e.g. base-isolation) Brick Masonry (un-reinforced) Concrete Masonry (reinforced) Unknown Residential Unknown Commercial Code CW CM SB SM TW CT LP AE BU MW UR UC

15 Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development PEOPLE DATASET DEVELOPMENT

16 Hawke s Bay Exposure Dataset Development Results An exposure dataset for Hawke s Bay region (with ~ 91,000 buildings and 161,500 people (night time)) using the above methodology has been developed, and was available in various formats, such as spreadsheet (e.g. *.csv), GIS layers (e.g. shapefile) and RiskScape compatible module (e.g. *.rksa). In addition, all the dataset has been migrated into a web-based asset repository where dataset attributes can be easily managed (e.g. editing existing data or adding new data)

17 Discussions Methodologies proposed and used to develop the exposure dataset for the Hawke s Bay Region are relatively general and are applicable to other regions. The use of footprint layers to determine the total building inventory as well and spatial locations is a major advance on previous approaches. The availability of engineering reports (e.g. EPB) will significantly improve the exposure dataset, particularly the structural attributes. More supporting data are needed when distributing day-time populations as it was derived from various sources with varying levels of quality.

18 Discussions The user-friendly web-based asset repository along with a recently developed data capture tool will enable various users to contribute to the improvement of the exposure dataset through a seamless platform. Asset Repository Asset Repository Web Portal Real-time Individual Asset Attribute Collection Tool (RiACT)

19 Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research and Technology (FRST, now the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment). Quotable Value Limited provided one of the underlying property datasets for the building inventory, and Statistics New Zealand and the Ministry of Education provided population data. The support of the Hawke s Bay Regional Council and the Napier and Hastings City Councils is gratefully acknowledged.

20 And finally More detailed information can be found in the conference paper Contact for questions or further information Questions?