Supplementary Financial Information Sampo Group. January - March 2009

Transcription

1 Supplementary Financial Information Sampo Group January - March 2009

2 Sampo Group in January March 2009 Sampo Group s profit before taxes amounted to EUR 169 million (142). EPS amounted to EUR 0.23 (0.18), at market values EPS was EUR (-0.39). Net asset value per share amounted to EUR 8.17 (8.28). In P&C insurance profit before taxes amounted to EUR 144 million (64), combined ratio was 94.2 per cent (94.0). In life insurance profit before taxes decreased to EUR 27 million (64). Segment Holding reported a loss before taxes of EUR -21 million (14) as a result of Sampo plc selling its Topdanmark shares to its fully-owned subsidiary If P&C Insurance Holding Ltd at a loss of EUR -19 million. The sales loss is eliminated in the consolidated accounts of Sampo Group. 2

3 Sampo Group s results Profit before taxes and net profit Profit before taxes by quarters EURm 169 EURm Q/2008 1Q/ Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Pre-tax profit Net profit 3

4 Earnings per share Reported EPS and EPS incl. change in the fair value reserve Reported EPS by quarter EUR EUR Q1/08 Q1/ Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 EPS (reported) EPS (incl. change in FVR) 4

5 Sampo Group s net asset value per share EUR / / / /2008 3/2009 5

6 Sampo Group s net asset value, 31 March 2009 EURm 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,715 2, ,589 1,000 1,649 0 P&C insurance Life insurance Holding Sampo Group (incl. eliminations) 6

7 Sampo Group s profit before taxes, January March 2009 EURm P&C insurance Life insurance -21 Holding Sampo Group Q1/2008 Q1/2009 7

8 P&C insurance profit before taxes, January March 2009 EURm 1,500 1,429 1, Premiums written, net Claims incurred and change in ins. liabilities Costs Investment income, net Profit before taxes -1,500-1,065-1,149 Q1/2008 Q1/2009 8

9 Life insurance profit before taxes, January March 2009 EURm Premiums written, net Investment income, net Claims incurred and change in liabilities 5-20 Costs Profit before taxes Q1/2008 Q1/2009 9

10 Holding profit before taxes, January March 2009 EURm Investment income, net Staff costs Other operating expenses Finance costs Q1/2008 Q1/ Profit before taxes 10

11 Sampo Group s equity, EURm 4,631 4,573 5,365 5,504 Fair value reserve Retained earnings Restricted capital 1,629 1,629-2,364-2, December March

12 Sampo Group s fair value reserve development EURm , ,800-2,400-3,000-2,364-2,560 12/06 03/07 06/07 09/07 12/07 03/08 06/08 09/08 12/08 03/09 Sampo Group fair value reserve, after tax 12

13 Fair value reserve development by segment EURm 3/ / /2007 P&C insurance Life insurance Holding -1, , Sampo Group* -2, , *Eliminations included and figures after tax 13

14 Fair value reserve by segment and asset class, 31 March 2009 EURm Fixed income Equity Derivatives held for hedging Deferred taxes FVR net P&C Insurance Life Insurance Holding , ,839.5 Sampo Group* , ,560.1 *Figures after tax 14

15 Sampo Group s economic capital 12/2005-3/2009 EURm 3,000 2,000 1, ,502 1,690 1, ,173 1, / /2006*) 12/ /2008**) 3/ , ,148 2,695 3,395 1,895 1,976 P&C *)New methodology since 2008 Life Holding Sampo Group (incl. diversification effect) **) 99.5% VaR since

16 Sampo Group s economic capital split by risk type, 31 March % 28% 52% Market risk Credit risk Insurance risk Operational risk 12% 16

17 P&C insurance economic capital split by risk type, 31 March 2009 EURm 2,500 2,000 Liability side adjustments 2, *) 331 1,500 1,000 LOB Diversification , Insurance risk Market risk Credit risk Operational Diversification Total Adjusted risk solvency capital *) Part of If s subordinated loans not included in the current regulatory capital base (but allowed for in QIS 4) 17

18 Life insurance economic capital split by risk type, 31 March 2009 EURm 1, Liability side adjustments 0 Insurance risk Market risk Credit risk Operational risk Diversification Total Adjusted solvency capital 18

19 Sampo Group Economic Capital, 31 March 2009 EURm 3,000 2,400 Market risk Insurance risk Diversification Credit risk Operational risk Total 190 1,800 1, , , If Mandatum Sampo plc Diversification Sampo Group Life total 19

20 Group economic capital and solvency, 31 March 2009 According to Solvency II EURm 4,500 Liability side adjustments, If and Mandatum Life 4, ,000 Excess capital EUR 2,1bn 1, ,976 3, P&C Life Holding Diversif. Group Economic Capital Adj. Group Solv. Capital 20

21 Sampo Group s solvency capital EURm % of minimum requirement % of minimum requirement December March 2009 Group solvency capital Regulatory minimum capital requirement 21

22 Return on equity in Sampo Group s business areas P&C insurance Life insurance 20% 14.4% 0% -20% -40% -60% -52.0% Target RoE RoE Q1/2009 (annualised) 22

23 Sampo Group's investment allocation, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 16.8 billion 1 % 2 % 12 % 7 % 16 % Money Market 16% Bonds 63% Nordea 12% Equities other 7% Real Estate 1% Other 2% 63 % Investments of Sampo plc, Mandatum Life and If P&C 23

24 Fixed income allocation Sampo Group, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 13.3 billion 2 % 6 % 23 % 26 % Short term 23% Scandinavian 43% Euro 26% U.S. 6% Other 2% 43 % 24

25 Fixed Income Allocation by sector, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 13.3bn Corporate 20% Money Market 22% Government 16% Banks 21% Banks Covered Bonds 21% 25

26 Equity allocation Sampo Group, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 3.0 billion 2%2% 1%4% 3% 14% 10% 64% Scandinavia 14% Nordea 64% Finland 10% Western Europe 3% East Europe 1% North America 4% Japan 2% Far East 2% 26

27 Sampo plc s investment allocation, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 2.8 billion 1%1% 30% Fixed Income 30% Nordea 69% Real Estate 1% Private Equity 1% 69% 27

28 Sensitivity of Group investments to market risks on 31 March 2009 EURm If P&C *Eliminations included and figures after tax Mandatum Life Sampo plc Sampo Group Equities -10% % Interest rates -100 bps bps Alternatives -10% % Currency -5% -5 (SEK) 2 (EUR) 73(EUR) - +5% 5 (SEK) -2 (EUR) -73 (EUR) - The changes of interest rates have a strong effect to the reinvestment risk of the insurance companies. The sensitivities include the effects of derivative positions, but do not capture indirect effects, like the impact of the changes of the discount rates in the value in force. All sensitivities are before taxes. The scenario definitions assume an uniform movement of the whole underlying market. 28

29 Sampo plc s ownership structure, 30 April % 52.2 % 8.5 % 2.7 % 2.1 % 1.1 % 19.3 % Solidium* 14.1% Varma Mutual Pension 8.5% Ilmarinen Mutual Pension 2.7% Björn Wahlroos 2.1% Kaleva Mutual Insurance 1.1% Other domestic owners 19.3% Foreign and nominee registered owners 52.2% * Entirely owned by the Finnish State 29

30 Sampo Group staff, 31 March March December 2008 P&C INSURANCE 6,920 6,924 Finland Sweden Norway Baltics, Russia, Denmark and other LIFE INSURANCE Finland Baltics and other HOLDING Sampo plc (Finland) 1,786 1,891 1,680 1, ,805 1,875 1,644 1, TOTAL SAMPO GROUP 7,443 7,458 The number of part-time employees has been changed to correspond to full-time employees according to working hours (Full-time equivalent). 30

31 P&C INSURANCE Figures in this section represent If operations as stand alone unless otherwise stated. This creates minor deviations from consolidated Sampo Group figures.

32 Breakdown of gross premiums written in If P&C, January March 2009 by business area Total EUR 1,422 million by country Private Commercial Industrial Baltic and Russia Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Baltic and Russia 32

33 If premium change in euros and in SEK by business area, Q1/2009 vs. Q1/2008, % EUR SEK IF GROUP -8.1% 7.0% PRIVATE -8.9% 6.0% COMMERCIAL -7.0% 8.3% INDUSTRIAL -9.4% 5.4% BALTIC AND RUSSIA -4.0% 11.8% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 33

34 If P&C insurance result Profit and loss account*, EURm 1-3/ /2008 Premiums earned Claims incurred Operating expenses Other technical income and expenses 0 3 Allocated investment return transferred from the nontechnical account Technical result Investment result Allocated investment return transferred to the technical account Other income and expenses -2-1 Operating result *According to consolidated Sampo Group figures 34

35 If P&C s technical result by business area, January March 2009 EURm Private Commercial Industrial Baltic and Russia Other Group 35

36 If P&C s technical result by country, January March 2009 EURm Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Baltic and Russia Other Group 36

37 If P&C s combined ratio development % Q1/08 Q1/09 Risk ratio Cost ratio 37

38 If P&C s solvency capital EURm 31 March December 2008 Shareholders equity 1,649 1,577 Subordinated notes Deferred tax assets and liabilities, net Solvency capital 2,278 2,221 38

39 Solvency capital & solvency ratio for If P&C EURm % /31/ Solvency capital Solvency ratio 39

40 If P&C s reserve strength 300% 250% 200% 245% 256% 277% 261% 250% 250% 150% 100% 135% 192% 144% 157% 173% 170% 177% 178% 50% 0% /31/2009 Reserves/NWP Reserves/Claims paid 40

41 If P&C - key figures by quarter Premiums earned, net (EURm) Q Q408 Q308 Q208 Q108 Q407 Q307 Q207 Q Technical result (EURm) Risk ratio (%) Cost ratio (%) Expense ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) Insurance margin (%)

42 If P&C - key figures by business area Q1/2009 PRIVATE Combined ratio COMMERCIAL Combined ratio 90.1% 91.3% 93.2% 94.8% 90.8% 92.4% 95.7% 95.6% Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 Jan-Dec07 Jan-Dec08 Q1/08 Q1/09 HIGHLIGHTS Premiums decreased by -8.9 per cent from Q1/2008 in euros Technical result decreased by -18.7% from Q1/2008 KEY FIGURES GWP: EUR 500 m (549 ) NPE: EUR 468 m (509) Technical result: EUR 50 m (61) Risk ratio: 71.0% (70.0%) Cost ratio: 23.8% (23.2%) Insurance margin: 10.6% (11.9%) HIGHLIGHTS Premiums decreased by -7.0% from Q1/2008 Technical result decreased by -2.7% from Q1/2008 KEY FIGURES GWP: EUR 583 m (626) NPE: EUR 277 m (299) Technical result: EUR 30 m (30) Risk ratio: 71.6% (71.4%) Cost ratio: 24.0% (24.3%) Insurance margin: 10.5% (9.9%) 42

43 If P&C - key figures by business area Q1/2009 INDUSTRIAL Combined ratio BALTIC AND RUSSIA Combined ratio 97.6% 94.1% 93.4% 92.8% 90.8% 92.6% 89.1% 81.0% Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 HIGHLIGHTS Premiums decreased by 9.4% Technical result increased by 42.4% Risk ratio improved from 78.4% in Q1/2008 to 73.3% KEY FIGURES GWP: EUR 297 m (328) NPE: EUR 105 m (104) Technical result: EUR 17 m (12) Risk ratio: 73.3% (78.4%) Cost ratio: 19.5% (19.2%) Insurance margin: 15.9% (11.2%) Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 HIGHLIGHTS Premiums decreased by 4.0% from Q1/2008 Risk ratio deteriorated from 49.7% in Q1/08 to 54.6% Insurance margin decreased from 22% in Q1/08to 15.6% KEY FIGURES GWP: EUR 43 m (45) NPE: EUR 41 m (38) Technical result: EUR 6 m (8) Risk ratio: 54.6% (49.7%) Cost ratio: 34.5% (31.3%) Insurance margin: 15.5% (22.0%) 43

44 If P&C - key figures by country Q1/2009 Combined ratio 89.8% 93.3% 95.4% 99.6% 86.0% 92.0% 97.3% 95.3% Jan- Dec 07 Jan- Dec 08 Q108 Q109 Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 NORWAY GWP: EUR 442 m (515) NPE: EUR 321 m (353) Technical result: EUR 20 m (35) Risk ratio: 75.6% (72.3%) Cost ratio: 23.9% (23.1%) Insurance margin: 6.3% (9.9%) SWEDEN GWP: EUR 363 m (401) NPE: EUR 255 m (289) Technical result: EUR 32 m (30) Risk ratio: 73.3% (75.5%) Cost ratio: 22.1% (21.9%) Insurance margin: 12.4% (10.1%) 90.9% 89.4% 89.6% 90.0% 115.9% 91.9% 92.6% 85.6% Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 Jan-Dec 07 Jan-Dec 08 Q108 Q109 FINLAND GWP: EUR 444 m (457) NPE: EUR 201 m (199) Technical result: EUR 28 m (29) Risk ratio: 66.5% (64.9%) Cost ratio: 23.5% (24.7%) Insurance margin: 14.0% (14.0%) DENMARK GWP: EUR 130 m (130) NPE: EUR 74 m (71) Technical result: EUR 15 m (10) Risk ratio: 60.5% (68.8%) Cost ratio: 25.1% (23.8%) Insurance margin: 21.0% (13.7%) 44

45 If P&C s investment allocation, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 9.4 billion 6% 6% 1% Bonds 88% Money Market 6% Equities 6% Other 1% 88% 45

46 LIFE INSURANCE

47 Life insurance profit by components EURm Net investment income - Transferred to expense result - Return on unit-linked policies - Return on with-profit policies* Q1/2009 Q1/ INVESTMENT RESULT EXPENSE RESULT RISK RESULT OTHERS PROFIT BEFORE TAXES Change in the market value of investments PROFIT AT MARKET VALUES *Includes guaranteed interest, bonuses and change in the reserves of the above items 47

48 Mandatum Life breakdown of premiums written & insurance savings Premiums written, EURm 1-3/2009 Insurance savings, EURm 3/ Unit-linked life Unit-linked pension Unit-linked capital redemption Unit-linked Baltic Other life 3, Other pension Other capital redemption Other Baltic 48

49 Mandatum Life technical reserves traditional vs. unit-linked EURm 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, /2009 Guaranteed interest rates Unit-linked 49

50 Mandatum Life s market share in Finland % 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, Q1/2009 All products Unit-linked 50

51 Solvency of Mandatum Life Group EURm SOLVENCY CAPITAL Q1/ Capital and reserves Dividend payment 0 0 Subordinated capital Unrealized gains Deferred taxes from Fair Value Reserve Deferred taxes on profit brought forward Other items TOTAL TECHNICAL PROVISIONS Technical provisions on own account 6,115 6,119-75% of t/p in unit linked insurance -1,244-1,227 TOTAL 4,871 4,891 SOLVENCY RATIO % OF TECHNICAL RESERVES

52 Mandatum Life s investment allocation, 31 March 2009 Total EUR 4.6 billion 5% 4% 2% Money Market 29% 1% 12% 48% 29% Bonds 48% Nordea 1% Equities other 12% Private Equity 5% Real Estate 4% Other 2% 52

53 OUTLOOK

54 Sampo Group s outlook for the rest of 2009(1) Conditions in the investment market were extremely demanding in the first quarter of It now appears that most of the negative news on the economy was already then discounted in asset values. Developments in March-April 2009 have been more encouraging and a clear change of sentiment seems to have taken place in the market. The global economy will, however, continue to suffer for some time still. Although improving asset values will reflect on valuations of Sampo Group s investment assets and the returns achieved, the Group s result for 2009 will largely depend on the proceeds of the P&C insurance operation. The reported profit is expected to remain on a good level. The volatility of capital markets makes it impossible to estimate the return on investments at any level of accuracy. 54

55 Sampo Group s outlook for the rest of 2009(2) The macroeconomic situation will only have a small negative impact on premium growth in P&C insurance and the insurance technical result of If P&C is not expected to suffer in 2009 from the economic downturn. If P&C is expected to reach its long-term combined ratio target with a combined ratio of per cent. Mandatum Life s profit is to a very large extent dependent on investment markets and it is impossible to reliably estimate the results for Holding segment s profit will mostly consist of dividends of EUR 80 million received from Nordea in April With its current asset composition Sampo plc s profit contribution will be small in the Group context. Sampo plc may increase its holding in Nordea further provided that market conditions remain favourable. 55