Pohjola Group. Interim Report Q4/2010 Financial Statements for 2010

Transcription

1 1 Pohjola Group Interim Report Q4/21 Financial Statements for 21

2 2 Pohjola Group Interim Report Q4/21 Financial Statements for 21

3 3 Contents Interim Report Q4/21 Financial Statements for Dividend and Dividend Policy 21 Outlook for Background Material Earnings Analyses 5-63 Finnish Economy 64-7 IR Contact Information 71

4 4 Pohjola Group Q4/21 Earnings before tax, mn Earnings 8 million, excluding non-recurring items Earnings 18 million, excluding non-recurring items Banking Non-life Insurance Asset Management Group Functions Total Q4/9 Q4/1

5 5 Pohjola Group 21 Earnings before tax, mn Earnings were 322 million, excluding nonrecurring items Earnings 13 million, excluding non-recurring items Banking Non-life Insurance Asset Management Group Functions Total Q1-4/9 Q1-4/1

6 6 Banking Q4/21 Earnings before tax by business line, mn 32 Impairment charges 15 million (33) Corporate Banking Markets Baltic Total Q4/9 Q4/1

7 7 Banking 21 Earnings before tax by business line, mn Impairment charges 15 million (117) Operating cost/income ratio of 35% markedly above the strategic target (<4%) -8-4 Corporate Banking Markets Baltic Total Q1-4/9 Q1-4/1

8 8 Banking 21 Earnings before tax, change 21 vs 29, mn Net interest income Net commissions and fees Net trading income Net investment income Expenses Impairments of receivables 21

9 9 Banking Q4/21 Loan portfolio, average corporate loan margin and average margin of wholesale funding billion % 1.39% 1.38% 1.38% 1.36% 1.6 % 1.4 % 1.2 % 1. %.8 % %.17%.2%.21%.26%.6 %.4 %.2 % Q4/9 Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q4/1 Loan portfolio Average corporate loan margin Average margin of wholesale funding. %

10 1 Banking 21 Loan portfolio, average corporate loan margin and average margin of wholesale funding billion %.3% %.3% %.14% %.26% Loan portfolio Average corporate loan margin Average margin of wholesale funding 1.6 % 1.4 % 1.2 % 1. %.8 %.6 %.4 %.2 %. %

11 11 Banking Q4/21 Impairments and doubtful receivables million 8 Impairment charges for 21 totalled 15 milion (117) 1. % Impairment charges for 21 totalled for.75% (.87) of the loan and guarantee portfolio 6.8 % Q4/9 Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q4/1 Credit loss recoveries and reversal of impairments New impairments Net impairments %.4 %.2 %. %.32 %.25 %.52 %.24 %.28 %.2 %.21 %.2 %.22 %.11 % Q4/9 Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q4/1 Ratio of doubtful receivables to loan and guarantee portfolio, % Ratio of impairments of receivables to loan and guarantee portfolio, %

12 12 Non-life Insurance Q4/21 Insurance premium revenue totalled 241 million (231) million % Private Customers Decline in insurance premium revenue from Corporate Customers came to an end % Corporate Customers -7% Baltic Q4/9 Q4/1 4% Total

13 13 Non-life Insurance 21 Full-year insurance premium revenue totalled 964 (943) million Insurance premium revenue grew at a higher rate 11% Private Customers -4% Corporate Customers -14% Baltic 2% Total Q1-4/9 Q1-4/1

14 14 Non-life Insurance 21 Earnings before tax, change 21 vs 29, mn New major losses 25 million Earnings 13 million, excluding non-recurring items ( -2 million) Premium revenue Claims incurred excl. mortality model Mortality model Investment Provision for joint guarantee scheme Other 21

15 15 Non-life Insurance Q4/21 Operating combined ratio 93.1% Private Customers Corporate Customers Baltic States Total % % 87.4% 88.8% 98.1% 82.% 11.2% 9.9% 93.1% Q4/9 Q4/1 Q4/9 Q4/1 Q4/9 Q4/1 Q4/9 Q4/1 Operating expenses / Insurance premium revenue Claims incurred / Insurance premium revenue

16 16 Non-life Insurance 21 Operating combined ratio 89.7% Private Customers Corporate Customers Baltic States Total The balance on technical account improved among Private Customers % % 11.5% 88.7% 83.8% 86.5% 9.% 87.7% 89.7% Operating expenses / Insurance premium revenue Claims incurred / Insurance premium revenue Major losses weakened the balance on technical account

17 17 Non-life Insurance 21 Operating combined ratio %, cumulative 1 % 95 % 9 % The second best year 85 % 8 % Q1 H1 Q1-3 Full yr 26 98,2 % 94,8 % 95,4 % 95,5 % 27 1,8 % 94,9 % 93, % 93,8 % 28 98,2 % 95, % 9, % 91,5 % 29 91,3 % 88,6 % 86,7 % 87,7 % 21 95,5 % 91,6 % 88,6 % 89,7 %

18 18 Non-life Insurance 21 Investment income at fair value 5.1% (1.7%) 3 % 2 % 11 % 15 % million % + 1.6% + 3.2% 69 % 4 % 7 % -.6% 68 % + 2.6% 5 % 14 % 4 % 3 % 13 % 4 % 4 % 3 Q4/9 % 7 Q1/1 % Q2/1 5 % Q3/1 4 % Q4/1 4 % 4 % 6 % 6 % Net investment income on income statement Change in fair value reserve Net investment income at fair value -.1%

19 19 Asset Management 21 Earnings before tax totalled 31 million (21) Assets under management 35 billion Assets under management up by 6%

20 2 Group Functions 21 Earnings before tax 61 million (25). Capital gains on notes and bonds improved earnings before tax and impairment charges decreased Earnings before tax at fair value reduced to 12 million (76). Maturing long-term funding, billion Liquidity portfolio by credit rating 9.5 billion (11.7) 3% 1% 4% 1% Aaa Aa1 Aa3 1.8 A1 A % 61% Baa1 Baa3 Ba1 or lower Internally rated

21 21 Dividend and Dividend Policy We aim to distribute a minimum of 5% of earnings per share in dividends, provided that Tier 1 stands at a minimum of 9.5% Dividends for 21 proposed by the Board 8,6 of Directors,5,4,3,2,1 26* 27* 28* 29* 21 Dividend per share, * Dividend payout ratio Target dividend *) Issue-adjusted dividend % represents 55% of earnings per share on one Series A share is.4 (.34) on one Series K share is.37 (.31) Dividend payout ratio during 26 1 averaged 58%

22 22 Outlook for 211 Consolidated earnings before tax in 211 are expected to be higher than in 21. Enabled by the economic recovery, the operating environment is expected to improve in the corporate sector and impairment charges to decrease. In Non life Insurance, the operating combined ratio is estimated to vary between 89% and 94% if the number of major losses is not much larger than in 21. Capital gains on notes and bonds are expected to decrease. The full version of Outlook can be found in the Financial Statements bulletin.

23 23 Background Material Business Structure 24 Market Position and Targets 25 OP-Pohjola Group Ownership Base and Division of Responsibilities 26 OP-Pohjola Group s Market Position 27 Credit Ratings 28 Joint Responsibility within OP-Pohjola Group 29 Strategy and Competitive Advantages 3 Strategic Initiatives 31 Financial Targets 33 Capital Adequacy 34 Pohjola Share and Total Shareholder Return 35 Pohjola Share: Shareholdings 36 Key Value Drivers 37 Background Material on Business Lines 38

24 24 Business Structure

25 25 Market Position and Targets Banking 2nd, target 1st % Non-life Insurance 1st, target 1st Pohjola If/Sampo Tapiola Fennia Local Insurance Other % Asset Management 1st, target 1st. Source: Federation of Finnish Insurance Companies, SFR. Based on interviews and answers by institutional investors with disclosed investment size % Pohjola Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Company 6 Others %

26 OP-Pohjola Group structure, ownership base and division of responsibilities 26 Over 2 member cooperative banks Retail banking Central Cooperative 1% ownership OP-Services Ltd 1% ownership Group control Supervision Risk management Strategic holdings 1% ownership OP Mortgage Bank 76% ownership OP Life Assurance 3% of shares 57% of votes 14% of shares 13% of votes Pohjola Group Corporate banking Markets Non-life insurance Asset management Central banking Product and services development Support functions Mortgage banking Life insurance The Central Cooperative and the member banks are liable for each other's debts and commitments. OP-Pohjola Group is monitored on a consolidated basis by FSA.

27 27 OP-Pohjola-Group market position Leading market position in Finland 4 % ,7 OP- Pohjola Group 31,2 Nordea Market Share in Loans 31 December 29 12,5 Danske Bank Source: Federation of Finnish Financial Services 5,1 3,3 3,8 Savings banks 2, 1,4,7 Tapiola Bank % 33,2 Handelsbanken Aktia Local Ålandsbanken cooperative banks OP- Pohjola Group 32, Nordea Market Share in Deposits 31 December 29 12,1 Danske Bank Source: Federation of Finnish Financial Services 3,3 5,3 Savings banks 2,8 3,1 Aktia Handelsbanken Local Ålandsbanken cooperative banks 1,3 1,1 Tapiola Bank % 27,6 OP-Pohjola Group* Market share in non-life insurance premiums written 29 Domestic direct insurance 25, Source: Federation of Finnish Financial Services *Pohjola Non-Life, A-Insurance, Eurooppalainen **incl. Palonvara 18,9 1,2 9,1 8,7 If Tapiola Fennia Local Insurance** Others 35 % ,9 Mandatum Life* * Mandatum Life and Kaleva Market shares in life insurance Gross premiums written 29 25,2 OP-Pohjola Group 23,9 7,6 6,3 1, Nordea Tapiola Skandia Others Source: Federation of Finnish Financial Services

28 28 Credit rating Rating target: AA rating issued by at least two credit rating agencies Pohjola Bank Handelsbanken Nordea Moody's S & P Fitch Aa2* Aa2 Aa2 AA-* AA- AA- AA- AA- AA- DnB NOR Danske Bank SEB Swedbank Aa3 Aa3 A1 A2 A+ A* A A A+ A+ A+ - OP-Mortgage Bank** Aaa AAA - Pohjola Insurance Ltd If A2* A2 A+ A - - Finnish government Aaa AAA AAA *) The credit rating outlook is negative **) Covered bond rating

29 29 Joint liability Joint liability within OP-Pohjola Group is based on the Act of Amalgamations of Deposit Banks (the Amalgamations Act). OP-Pohjola Group Central Cooperative and its member credit institutions are liable for each other's debts and commitments in accordance with the Act. The Central Cooperative is responsible for the payments of any debts of a Member Credit Institution that cannot be paid using such Member Credit Institution s own funds. A Member Credit Institution must pay to the Central Cooperative a proportionate share of the amount which the Central Cooperative has paid either to another Member Credit Institution as part of the support action described above, or to a creditor of such Member Credit Institution as payment of a due debt for which the creditor has not received payment from his debtor. Each Member Credit Institution s liability, for the amount which the Central Cooperative has paid on behalf of one Member Credit Institution to its creditors, is divided between the Member Credit Institutions in proportion to their last confirmed balance sheet totals. OP-Pohjola Group's insurance companies do not fall within the scope of joint liability.

30 3 Strategy and competitive advantages Value through integration

31 31 Strategic Initiatives 1. Upgrading business for corporate and institutional customers 2. Intensifying integration between Banking and Non-life Insurance 3. Improving international service capabilities 4. Enhancing the Group s intellectual capital

32 32 Implementation of strategic initiatives in 21

33 33 Financial Targets over the economic cycle Target Group Return on equity at fair value, % Tier 1 ratio, % > Banking Operating cost/income ratio, % < Non-life Insurance Operating combined ratio, % Operating expense ratio, % < Solvency ratio, % Asset Management Operating cost/income ratio, % < 5 53* 53 * Excl. items related to corporate transaction

34 34 Strong Capital Base Tier 1 ratio under the Act on Credit Institutions million milj. % 13,5 13,3 11,8 12,5 9, ,5 Tier 2 Tier 1 Core Tier 1, % = the ratio of core equity capital, excluding hybrid capital, to total risk-weighted assets. Tier 1 ratio, % Capital adequacy ratio, % Capital adequacy under the Act on the Supevision of Financial and Insurance Conglomerates Statutory minimum requirement Capital Adequacy under the Act on the Financial Conglomerates Statutory minimun requirement

35 35 Pohjola Share Total Shareholder Return 1 Jan-31 Dec MCAP of Pohjola (A and K shares) 3 bn Pohjola Bank Peer insurers Peer banks Pohjola Bank Peer insurers Peer banks Pohjola + 24% Peer banks + 31% Peer insurers + 5% Pohjola + 17% Peer banks + 16% Peer insurers + 44% Peer banks: Danske, DnB NOR, Nordea, SEB, SHB, Swedbank Peer insurers: AlmBrand, Sampo/If, TopDanmark, Tryg

36 36 Shareholdings by owner Shareholdings of Series A and K shares as of 31 Dec % 3 % 17 % OP-Pohjola Group Central Cooperative OP-Pohjola Group member cooperative banks Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company Suomi Mutual Life Assurance Company Other domestic institutions 1 % 7 % 1 % 15 % Nominee-registered shareholders Households

37 37 Key Value Drivers Pohjola Group Banking Non-life Insurance Asset Management Group Functions Growth in the loan and guarantee portfolio Quality of the portfolio and impairment charges Level of margins and commissions/fees Capital market activity and trading volumes Cost-efficiency Premium growth Risk selection and pricing Promptness, quality and efficiency of claims settlement Net investment income Cost-efficiency Assets under management Asset allocation The level of commissions and fees Investment performance Cost-efficiency Return on the liquidity portfolio Credit spread development The amount of loans/deposits to/from OP-Pohjola member banks Pohjola s credit rating and funding costs Cost-efficiency

38 38 Background Material on Business Lines Banking 39 Exposures by rating and industry Non-life Insurance 4 Insurance lines Cross-selling potential Bonuses Sales to Private Customers Loyal customers Investment portfolio Asset Management 48 Assets under management by client group and asset class Group Functions 49 Maturing long-term funding Pohjola s net receivables from OP-Pohjola Group retail banks Liquidity portfolio

39 39 Banking Exposures* by rating and industry 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Investment-grade (ratings 1 5) exposure accounts for 61% (57) of total exposure 5% 56% 24% 12% % 2% 1% Non-rated Rating category Rating (Moody s) Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba3 B1 B3 Caa1 C * Exposures = companies and housing associations, 16.6 billion D **) Industry 12/21 % Renting and operating of residential real estate % Manufacture of machinery and equipment (incl. services) % Wholesale and retail trade % Renting and operating of other real estate % Construction % Transportation and storage % Buying and selling of own real estate % Forest industry % Chemical industry % Services % Metal industry % Food industry % Energy % Information and communication % Other manufacturing % Financial and insurance activities % Agriculture, forestry and fishing % Mining and quarrying % Water supply, sewerage and waste management 122.7% Other industries 37.2% Total 16,567 1.% **) In 21, 49% of exposures, or 937 million, within the Renting and Operating ofresidential Real Estate were guaranteed by general government.

40 4 Non-life Insurance Insurance lines Insurance premium revenue by insurance line in 21 ( 964 million) Operating combined ratio, % 19 % 19% 17% 17% Motor, third party liability Fire and other damage to property Statutory workers' compensation insurance Motor, other Other accident and health Other % 11%

41 41 Non-life Insurance OP-Pohjola Group s customer potential as source of growth (1, customers) , , % Non-life insurance customers Banking and non-life insurance customers Banking customers

42 42 Non-life Insurance Cross-selling works well OP-Pohjola Group member bank customers and their main insurer Q1/26 Pohjola Insurance Q4/21 17% 35% Pohjola Insurance Other insurance companies Other insurance companies Pohjola Insurance customers and their main bank Q1/26 Q4/21 34% Cooperative banks Other banks Other banks 61% Cooperative banks Source: Consumer survey on bank and insurance company switch by TNS Gallup; main customer relationship

43 43 Non-life Insurance Bonuses Bonuses accrue from banking and insurance services Bonuses were used to pay 1.1 million insurance premium bills, with 2, bills paid in full using bonuses Encashed 6 % Insurance premiums 4 % Banking services 54 % Bonuses worth 56 million were used to pay insurance premiums

44 44 Non-life Insurance Pohjola has also become the largest non-life insurer among private customers Market share by bank Main bank Market share by insurer Main insurer 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 35% 39% 38,9 31,3 3% 2% 18% 22% 22,4 21,6 19,7 1% % 11,8 5,5 3,6 2, OP-Pohjola Group Pohjola Insurance 1% % 1, 5,3 Source: Survey on bank and insurance company switch 21 by TNS Gallup Oy

45 45 Non-life Insurance Sales to private customers by channel > 3 outlets 31.4% 32.8% 29.% 29.4% Q1-4/9 Q1-4/1 13 contracting banks 17.2% 16.7% 14.6% 15.% 7.8% 6.% 414 insurance sellers OP-Pohjola member banks / Pohjola offices Car dealers Agents Contact centers Others 186 agents

46 46 Growth 5, Non-life Insurance Loyal customers 471,199 loyal customers above the target of 45, Record number of 46, new loyal customers 5, Since Pohjola met this target, it will no longer report in this respect 4, 3, 2, 45, Target 21 4, 35, 3, 17 1, 25, Growth Number of loyal customer households Target 2, Revenue synergies Target The estimate is based on the following formula: 1%* (new loyal customer households received as a result of cooperation with Group member banks * average insurance premium / household) + a 5.4% return on insurance premium invested

47 47 Non-life Insurance Investment portfolio 2.9 billion Investment allocation Portfolio by maturity and credit rating Investments under the investment grade accounted for 91% of the portfolio. 77% of investments at least A- -rated 7% 7% Year Total % 12% Aaa Aa1 Aa % 19% 2% A1 A % 72% Real estate Alternative investments Equities Private Equity Bonds and bond funds Money market The percentages do not add up to 1% due to rounding off differences Baa1 Baa3 Ba1 or lower Internally rated Total, mn The average residual term to maturity is 5.3 years and the duration 4.1 years % 8% 1% 1%

48 48 Asset Management Assets under management by client Assets under management by asset class 35 % 34 % 8 % 1 % 11 % 14 % 42 % 39 % 58 % 56 % 27 % 29 % 2 % 18 % Institutional clients Pohjola Private OP-Mutual funds Other investments Equities Bonds Money Market

49 49 Group Functions Pohjola s net receivables from OP-Pohjola Group retail banks 3.4 billion million /8 3/9 6/9 9/9 12/9 3/1 6/1 9/1 12/1 Reserve deposits Other deposits Other loans Net position

50 5 Earnings Analyses Pohjola Group 51 - Banking 53 - Non-life Insurance 55 - Asset Management 57 - Group Functions 59 OP-Pohjola Group 61

51 51 Pohjola Group Earnings Analyses million Net Interest Income Corporate Banking* Markets Other operations Net Commissions and fees Net trading income Net investment income Net income from Non-life Insurance Insurance operations Investment operations Other items Other operating income Net income Total expenses Earnings before impairments of receivables Impairments of receivables Earnings before tax Change in fair value reserve Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Earnings per share, Q4/ Q4/ change % / / *incl. Baltics Pohjola/Q2

52 52 Pohjola Group Earnings Analyses by quarter million Net Interest Income Corporate Banking* Markets Other operations Net Commissions and fees Net trading income Net investment income Net income from Non-life Insurance Insurance operations Investment operations Other items Other operating income Net income Total expenses Earnings before impairments of receivables Impairments of receivables Earnings before tax Change in fair value reserve Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Earnings per share, 1-12/ / / / / *incl. Baltics Pohjola/Q2

53 53 Banking Earnings Analyses million Q4/1 Q4/9 change % 1-12/1 1-12/9 Net interest income Corporate Banking* Markets Net Commissions and fees Net trading income Other operating income Total income Operating expenses Earnings before impairments of receivables Impairments of receivables Earnings before tax Operating cost/income ratio, % *incl. Baltics Pohjola/Q2

54 54 Banking Earnings Analyses by quarter million 1-12/1 7-9/1 4-6/1 1-3/1 1-12/9 Net interest income Corporate Banking* Markets Net Commissions and fees Net trading income Other operating income Total income Operating expenses Earnings before impairments of receivables Impairments of receivables Earnings before tax Operating cost/income ratio, % *incl. Baltics Pohjola/Q2

55 55 Non-life Insurance Earnings Analyses by quarter million Q4/1 Q4/9 change % 1-12/1 1-12/9 Insurance premium revenue Claims incurred Operating expenses Balance on technical account before amortisation Amortisation/adjustment on intangible assets* Balance on technical account Net investment income Other income and expenses Earnings/loss before tax Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Operating claims ratio, % Operating expense ratio, % Operating combined ratio, % Return on investment, % * Due to amortisation on intangible assets arising from company acquisition Pohjola/Q2

56 56 Non-life Insurance Earnings Analyses million 1-12/1 7-9/1 4-6/1 1-3/1 1-12/9 Insurance premium revenue Claims incurred Operating expenses Balance on technical account before amortisation Amortisation/adjustment on intangible assets* Balance on technical account Net investment income Other income and expenses Earnings/loss before tax Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Operating claims ratio, % Operating expense ratio, % Operating combined ratio, % Return on investment, % * Due to amortisation on intangible assets arising from company acquisition Pohjola/Q2

57 57 Asset Management Earnings Analyses million Q4/1 Q4/9 change % 1-12/1 1-12/9 Net commissions and fees Other income Total net income Total expenses Earnings before tax Operating cost/income ratio, % * 53 * Excl. items related to corporate transaction Pohjola/Q2

58 58 Asset Management Earnings by quarter million 1-12/1 7-9/1 4-6/1 1-3/1 1-12/9 Net commissions and fees Other income Total net income Total expenses Earnings before tax Operating cost/income ratio, % Pohjola/Q2

59 59 Group Functions Earnings Analyses million Q4/1 Q4/9 change % 1-12/1 1-12/9 Net interest income Net trading income Net investment income Other income Total income Operating expenses Impairments of receivables Earnings before tax Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Pohjola/Q2

60 6 Group Functions Earnings Analyses by quarter million 1-12/1 7-9/1 4-6/1 1-3/1 1-12/9 Net interest income Net trading income Net investment income Other income Total income Operating expenses Impairments of receivables -1 1 Earnings before tax Earnings/loss before tax at fair value Pohjola/Q2

61 61 OP-Pohjola Group Key figures OP-Pohjola Group 21 Pohjola 21 OP-Pohjola Group 29 Pohjola 29 Total assets, million Receivables from customers, million Deposits, million Equity capital, million Tier 1 ratio, % Doubtful receivables, million Doubtful receivables and zero-interest bearing receivables of loans and guarantees, % Loan and guarantee portfolio, billion Impairments of receivables, million Impairments of receivables / loan and guarantee portfolio, % Personnel

62 62 OP-Pohjola Group Income statement, million OP-Pohjola Group 21 Pohjola 21 OP-Pohjola Group 29 Pohjola 29 Net interest income Net income from Non-Life insurance Net income from Life Insurance 1-12 Net commissions and fees Other income Total income Total expenses Earnings before impairments of receivables Impairments of receivables Returns to owner-members and OP-bonus customers Earnings before tax Change in fair value reserve Earnings/loss before tax at fair value

63 63 OP-Pohjola Group Key ratios OP-Pohjola Group 21 Pohjola 21 OP-Pohjola Group 29 Pohjola 29 Net interest margin, % 1.1* 1.36** 1.4* 1.33** Cost / Income ratio, % 57*** 35*** 53 35*** Return on equity (ROE) at fair value, % Return on assets, (ROA) at fair value, % Non-Life Insurance, Solvency ratio, % Life Insurance, Solvency ratio, %**** Operating Combined ratio, % * Net interest income as a percentage of average total assets ** Average margin for corporate lending *** Cost / Income ratio in Banking **** Solvency capital / (net technical provisions at own liability - equalization provision -.75 * technical provisions on unit-linked insurances) * 1

64 64 Finnish Economy

65 65 Forecasts for the Finnish economy Published on 1 February, f 211f 212f EUR bn Volume, % change on previous year GDP Imports Exports Consumption Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment Other key indicators 29 21f 211f 212f Consumer price index, % change y/y Unemployment rate, % Current account balance, % of GDP General government debt, % of GDP General government net lending, % of GDP

66 66 GDP and demand components 8 % United States Change in GDP volume Index GDP and demand components GDP shares in 29 in brackets Exports (41.8%) Finland Euro Area e 12e Private consumption (51.6%) GDP 1 Public consumption (22.5%) Fixed investment 9 (2.1%) f 11f 12f Sources: Reuters EcoWin, forecasts OP-Pohjola Group (February 211) Sources: Statistics Finland, forecasts OP-Pohjola Group, February 211

67 67 Exports by product group and country Machinery, equipment and transport equipment change -15.9% Electric and electronics industry products change -22.5% Goods exports by product group Share of total exports and annual change Other products change 17.1% Source: National Board of Customs January-June % 11.2% 21.2% 19.9% 16.% 14.7% Forest industry products change 22.6% Chemical industry products change 3.9% Metals and metal products change 48.9% Total exports 23.9 EUR Billion (change, 7.8%) Other countries 37% Belgium 3% Goods exports by countries January-June 21 Italy 3% France 4% Source: National Board of Customs China 5% Sweden 12% Germany 1% Russia 8% US 5% United Kingdom 5% Netherlands 8%

68 68 Unemployment rate and corporate debt Unemployment rate* in Finland and Euro Area 18 % Finland 12 1 Euro Area *Seasonally adjusted f 12f Sources: Statistics Finland, Eurostat, forecasts OP-Pohjola Group, February % of GDP Corporate debt Year 29 Finland Norway Denmark Sweden Corporate loans* Debt securities** * Excl. loans between Finnish companies ** Commercial papers, corporate bonds and financial derivatives Source: Eurostat, Consolidated Financial Accounts, Norway year 28

69 69 House prices and households debt ratio Index 1996=1 Average house prices Sweden Norway Finland Denmark Households' debt ratio %, of disposable income Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden Sources: Central Banks, Statistics Finland

70 7 Fiscal balance and 5yr CDS by country Fiscal balance as % of GDP Fiscal balance and government debt 4 5yr CDS 2/9-12/1 by country Finland Spain Euro Area Portugal Ireland* Greece 5y CDS, bps Source: European Commission, November 21 * Fiscal balance without bank support 21 Debt as % of GDP 5 2/9 3/9 4/9 5/9 6/9 7/9 8/9 9/9 1/9 11/9 12/9 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 1/1 Holland Finland Germany Spain Sweden UK France 11/1 12/1

71 71 Investor Relations Contacts SVP, IR Tarja Ollilainen Tel tarja.ollilainen@pohjola.fi IR Controller Päivi Kainulainen Tel paivi.kainulainen@pohjola.fi IR Assistant Anne Hasso Tel anne.hasso@pohjola.fi IR Specialist Jaana Mauro Tel jaana.mauro@pohjola.fi