WORK PLAN Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future

Transcription

1 WORK PLAN Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future A Work Plan for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

2 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE MEMBERS AUSTRALIA AUSTRIA BRAZIL DENMARK GERMANY HAITI INDIA IRELAND ITALY JAPAN KOREA, REPUBLIC OF LUXEMBOURG THE NETHERLANDS NORWAY SPAIN SWEDEN SWITZERLAND TOGO SOLOMON ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES AFRICA, CARIBBEAN & PACIFIC (ACP) SECRETARIAT EUROPEAN UNION UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION THE WORLD BANK OBSERVERS BELGIUM CANADA CHILE CHINA COLOMBIA EGYPT FINLAND FRANCE INDONESIA MALAYSIA MEXICO MOROCCO NEW ZEALAND NIGERIA PORTUGAL SAUDI ARABIA SENEGAL SOUTH AFRICA IFRC ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME This Work Plan was endorsed by the GFDRR Consultative Group (CG) in July 2013

3 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN Abbreviations 2 Executive summary 3 Introduction 7 How does GFDRR work? 9 What is GFDRR s proposed program? 11 Action Pillar One: Risk Identification 14 Action Pillar Two: Risk Reduction 18 Action Pillar Three: Preparedness 22 Action Pillar Four: Financial Protection 26 Action Pillar Five: Resilient Recovery 30 How does GFDRR partner with others? 33 How does GFDRR measure results? 39 What are GFDRR resource requirements? 45 Annexes 51 Annex I: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework 52 Annex II: Activity Monitoring Tool FY14 54 Annex III: Operational Framework for GFDRR 56

4 2 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Abbreviations AfDB African Development Bank ADB Asian Development Bank ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAPRA Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment CAT DDO Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CG Consultative Group CIF Climate Investment Funds CSO Civil Society Organization DAT Disaster Aid Tracking DFID UK Department for International Development DRFI Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance DRM Disaster Risk Management EAP East Asia and the Pacific EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GAR Global Assessment Report GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIS Geographic Information System IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies ILO International Labour Organization InaSAFE Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies LCR Latin America and the Caribbean MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency OECD-DAC Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Development Assistance Committee OpenDRI Open Data for Resilience Initiative PDNA Post Disaster Need Assessment PICs Pacific Island Countries SOPAC Secretariat of the Pacific, Applied Geoscience and Technology Division UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children s Fund UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UR Understanding Risk WFP World Food Program WMO World Meteorological Organization

5 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN executive summary This Work Plan proposes how GFDRR plans to implement the GFDRR Strategy adopted by the CG in December The Work Plan responds to priorities articulated by disaster prone countries, and the plans GFDRR s implementing partners have in place to scale up efforts in building resilience against disaster and climate risks in vulnerable countries. The successful implementation of this plan will mean that at least 34 highly vulnerable countries representing a total population of over one billion people will be better able to cope with and adapt to the effects of natural hazards. With sustained investment in risk management, these countries should see a long-term reduction in disaster losses. In alignment with the GFDRR Strategy , the Work Plan is structured around five pillars of action: risk identification; risk reduction; preparedness; financial protection; and resilient recovery. Working as a grant-making facility, GFDRR will support countries to develop capacity, generate new knowledge, and apply this capacity and knowledge to implement reform and investment for disaster risk management (DRM). Successful implementation will be characterized by the delivery of a series of five results:

6 4 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Result One: Risk Identification By 2016, vulnerable communities in a minimum of 24 partner countries will have better access to information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risks; and national agencies or cities in these countries will be equipped with improved means to assess and communicate these risks. This will lead to improved identification and understanding of disaster risks which is an essential precursor for the management of disaster risks. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence of national or city agencies specifically demonstrating: (i) improved generation or communication of disaster risk information; and (ii) increased application of risk information in public policy and investment planning. Result Two: Risk Reduction By 2016, a minimum of 20 partner countries and their development partners will be better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society. This will help avoid the creation of new risks, and reduce existing risks in the societies of partner countries through the development of better planning and safer buildings. Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost thanks to this investment. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) schools and other public infrastructure made safer through retrofitting or resilient construction; (ii) countries or cities implementing new or revised policies to address disaster risk; (iii) investment made in risk reduction measures; and (iv) vulnerable people taking action themselves to reduce risks in their communities. Result Three: Preparedness By 2016, national and local agencies and civil society organizations (CSOs) in a minimum of 23 partner countries will be strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur. This will lead to improved warning and management of disasters at the national, local and community levels. Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost as a result of good preparation and sufficient warning. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence of countries specifically demonstrating: (i) increased accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts and early warning; (ii) improved performance of national or city agencies in the quality and timeliness of emergency response; and (iii) the proportion of the populations of vulnerable countries demonstrating an understanding of what to do in the event of a disaster to save their lives and their possesions. Result Four: Financial Protection By 2016, a minimum of 16 partner countries will have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks; and their national agencies will be equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks in post-disaster situations.

7 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN This will lead to the increased financial resilience of governments, the private sector and households, and ultimately a reduction in the negative impact of disasters on poverty and other human development indicators. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) improved financial protection against disasters through reserves, contingency mechanisms or risk transfer by governments; (ii) countries adopting or improving budgetary mechanisms to allocate public resources in case of disasters; and (iii) more developed property catastrophe risk insurance markets and an increase in the proportion of people insured against loss or damage to their property. 1 Projection based on historical trend. Result Five: Resilient Recovery By 2016, a minimum of three partner countries will have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery as part of the pilot implementation of a recovery framework; and up to 40 1 disaster affected countries will make better and more informed decisions on where and how to recover and rebuild. This will lead to quicker, more resilient recovery from disasters when they strike in these countries. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) countries using enhanced capacity and improved planning to implement resilient recovery and risk reduction programs; (ii) increased levels of financing for resilient recovery resulting from post-disaster assessments and other assistance; and (iii) the speed with which people re-establish lives and livelihoods in post-disaster situations. To achieve these results, GFDRR will continue to expand its partnerships with local and national agencies to implement planned activities; with global and regional agencies to disseminate lessons learned; and with donors to mobilize and coordinate resources. In particular, GFDRR seeks to act as a vehicle for increased technical and financial cooperation between disaster prone countries and their development partners. This includes an increasing number of new and emerging donors who themselves have important DRM experience to share. In order to gather the evidence of the impact of its program, GFDRR is committed to robust monitoring and evaluation. This is critical not only to learn what works, but also to be accountable to countries that provide and receive support. The cornerstone of this commitment is a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework (Annex I), which summarizes the results GFDRR seeks and the ways it will measure them. More detail on how GFDRR will do this will be provided in an evaluation strategy under separate cover. Two main products will provide stakeholders with information generated through this effort. First, an Annual Report will set out the outputs generated through GFDRR activities against annual plans and targets. Second, annual studies on impact will provide analysis of the contribution of these outputs to institutional reform and investment in DRM that can protect lives and livelihoods on the ground. This Work Plan requires a total projected budget envelope of US$260 million. Based on current financing levels (as of April 1, 2013), GFDRR is seeking additional resources to fill an immediate financing gap of US$193 million for FY14-16.

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9 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN introduction This Work Plan sets out how GFDRR proposes to implement the new strategy adopted by the GFDRR in December 2012: Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future. The Work Plan responds to priorities articulated by disaster prone countries, and the plans GFDRR s implementing partners have in place to address them. It is the result of a collaborative effort between GFDRR and partners to define how resources can be best allocated, and results measured. This included a review of GFDRR s existing portfolio of programs, on which this Work Plan and the M&E framework (Annex 1) are based. This is the first work planning exercise of its kind for GFDRR, and this document will now be updated annually under a rolling three-year planning cycle. This signals a transition for GFDRR from start-up initiative to maturing program. During the initial years, it was important to react flexibly to emerging priorities in focus countries, in order to first build momentum, and then establish broad program structure. As a maturing program, GFDRR has established relationships with partners in country through the ongoing implementation of a portfolio of active projects and through this greater foresight on how resources can best be allocated to achieve program objectives. In this context, this document first gives an overview of how GFDRR works as a grant making facility to explain the mechanism through which this plan will be delivered. An outline of the Work Plan follows, which sets out how GFDRR proposes to stimulate improvements in institutional reform, policy change and investment for the protection of communities against natural hazards. An overview of planned outreach and partnership development comes next, setting out the role of these activities in supporting the overall program. The Work Plan concludes with plans for M&E and the resources GFDRR requires for implementation. The

10 8 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE annexes contain further resources for partners to understand and track results, including an M&E framework for GFDRR. The scope of the Work Plan is program-wide, and not specific to any current single or multidonor trust fund. For this reason, this plan includes activities for which financing is already secured and those for which GFDRR must mobilize new resources. The plan places a strong emphasis on existing priority countries, but does not exclude activities outside of those countries where there is current or planned support by a single donor, or where GFDRR sees particular opportunity to achieve results.

11 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN how does GFDRR work? The GFDRR Secretariat is hosted in the World Bank Headquarters in Washington, DC. The Secretariat acts as trustee of financial resources contributed by donors. It comprises a core staff of 30 specialists responsible for awarding and managing grants, reporting on results, and outreach and partnership development. The Secretariat also acts as the support hub for a decentralized network of DRM expert focal points 2 in priority countries. These specialists play a leading role in locally managing the GFDRR program and in developing relationships with governments and other partners in-country. GFDRR is a grant-making facility not a direct implementer and it is through the awarding and management of these grants that this Work Plan will be delivered. Grant making has increased from US$6.4 million in fiscal year FY07 to US$46.7 million in FY12, and demand for support from GFDRR continues to grow, six years into the program. Financial resources are administered as grants to government agencies, their development partners, technical bodies, NGOs and others, and are typically one to three years in duration. Throughout, the Secretariat judges all grant proposals on their potential to leverage investment or institutional reform and behavior change for improved management of disaster risks. GFDRR is responsible for allocating funds entrusted to it in line with geographic and thematic priorities set by its donors and partners. In any given country, GFDRR adopts a number of criteria to help in allocating resources, including: established vulnerability indicators; past evaluation of impact; the political context (including existing relations with governments); and donor priorities. Geographic priorities currently include 20 countries financed through a multi-donor trust fund, and 11 countries targeted by individual donors (see Map 1). Discussion on how best to prioritize resources geographically is ongoing with donors. This Work Plan should be considered in that context. GFDRR also manages special initiatives that focus on particular region or topics, including a five-year 54 million initiative of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States financed by the European Union. 2 GFDRR currently finances 23 national in-country focal points that help coordinate and support its program. Across the program, GFDRR commits to ensuring that all GFDRR projects are gender informed, in terms of analysis, actions, monitoring and evaluation and results assessments. This includes addressing the differential vulnerabilities to hazard risks, in addition to identifying and utilizing opportunities to promote gender equality and empowering women and marginalized communities as key agents of DRM and resilience. GFDRR will ensure, wherever possible, that projects include consideration of the particular vulnerabilities of the elderly, children, and the disabled.

12 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE 10 Map 1: Where GFDRR works l PDNA n Priority/Focus Country n Other Engagement PDNA Other Engagement Priority/Focus Country

13 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN what is GFDRR s proposed program? 3 Managing Disaster Risks for a Resilient Future: A Strategy for the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery , sets out GFDRR priorities for the period of and will guide the implementation of work plans for FY14, FY15, and FY16. 4 Some flagship activities are planned as part of ongoing financed projects, others are unfinanced and subject to resource mobilization. At the end of 2012, the CG adopted a new strategy, which set out the broad priorities of GFDRR s program for the years to come. 3 The plans presented in this section build on the existing portfolio, within an increasingly structured global operational framework along five pillars of action, as set out in the strategy (see Annex III for a summary). This section outlines work planned under each pillar, results expected, and indicative financial resources required. Each pillar highlights a number of planned activites to illustrate the geographical scope and technical breadth of what will happen on the ground under this plan. Each highlighted activity is ready to launch during FY14, either as a standalone project or as part of a larger program. 4 A full overview of planned activities by country is in Annex II. More detailed information for individual priority countries can be found under separate cover in GFDRR Country Updates. The overall logic of the GFDRR program is presented in Figure 1. GFDRR grants are awarded to proposals that demonstrate alignment with GFDRR s five pillars of action in pursuit of five core program results (see Annex I Monitoring and Evaluation Framework): (i) Risk Identification: improved identification and understanding of disaster risks; (ii) Risk Reduction: avoided creation of new risks and reduced existing risks in society; (iii) Preparedness: improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level; (iv) Financial Protection: increased financial resilience of governments and private sector; and (v) Resilient Recovery: quicker, more resilient recovery from disasters. Across all pillars, grants support countries to develop capacity, generate new knowledge and apply this capacity and knowledge to implement reform and investment for DRM programs across pillars. This is often delivered as one package of support.

14 12 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Figure 1: GFDRR Program Logic PILLAR 1 Risk Identification What we do Capacity development in data collection, sharing and management; hazard and exposure modeling/mapping; risk assessment; and risk communication Assistance to implement risk assessments; open source software; open data practices; remote sensing; and institution building Knowledge or tools for risk assessment; open source software; data platforms; and remote sensing What we deliver a. People in disaster prone countries have access to comprehensive information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risk b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and communicate disaster risks PILLAR 2 Risk Reduction Capacity development in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment Assistance to implement investment or reform in risk reduction policy; land-use planning; building standards; strategy; and planning and investment New knowledge; policy analysis; sector specific norms; guidelines and tools Disaster prone countries and their development partners are better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society PILLAR 3 Preparedness Capacity development in the use of disaster risk information for early warning; search and rescue; and contingency planning Assistance to implement investment or reform in emergency management; public awareness; early warning systems and national hydromet services New knowledge; policy analysis; hydromet feasibility studies; and operational guidelines National and local agencies and CSOs are strengthened to provide better early warning of disasters and respond more effectively when they occur PILLAR 4 Financial Protection Capacity development in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance Assistance to implement investment or reform in sovereign disaster risk financing; property catastrophe risk insurance; agricultural insurance; and disaster microinsurance New knowledge; policy analysis; strategy reviews; feasibility studies; fiscal risk assessments; and financial analysis tools a. Disaster prone countries have better access to comprehensive information on their financial exposure to disaster risks b. National agencies/cities are equipped with improved means to assess and manage fiscal and other financial risks PILLAR 5 Resilient Recovery Capacity development in the conduct of recovery assessments; good practice recovery planning; and implementation of standards in government systems Assistance to conduct post-disaster assessments and develop post-disaster recovery frameworks Development and dissemination of knowledge on disaster recovery Disaster affected countries have enhanced capacity and improved plans for financing and implementing resilient recovery

15 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN What this leads to Improved identification and understanding of disaster risks Avoided creation of new risks and reduced existing risks in society Improved warning and management of disasters at national, local and community level Increased resilience of people to natural disasters A world where resilient societies manage and adapt to emerging disaster risks and the human and economic impacts of disasters are reduced Increased financial resilience of governments and private sector Quicker, more resilient recovery

16 14 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Action Pillar One: Risk Identification People in vulnerable countries will have improved access to information about disaster and climate risks, and greater capacity to create, manage and use this information. Since 2007, GFDRR has been supporting risk assessment programs at regional and national levels, including in Central America, the Pacific and more than 12 countries. The Facility has acquired substantial experience in this field and has gradually modified the way it engages with local partners towards a demand-driven, capacity-building approach linked to larger interventions. Most GFDRR engagements in risk assessment are now directly implemented by local actors, for example, the National Disaster Management Agency in Pakistan, or the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Geoscience and Technology Division (SOPAC) in Fiji. Over the next three years, GFDRR will scale up its current engagement to expand and strengthen the capacity of local counterparts (see Annex II). The Facility also plans to expand support in risk identification to at least eight additional countries (see highlights in Table 2). GFDRR will focus its efforts on transferring expertise to highly vulnerable, low capacity countries. Products and solutions in risk analysis will specifically target gaps in evidence or capacity, to inform the design of risk reduction, contingency planning and/ or financial protection programs through facilitating the application of risk information to decision making processes (Box 1). The program will place an increasing focus on activities that build capacity within local agencies to analyze, share and communicate risk information effectively. Whenever possible, GFDRR will work to integrate disaster risk and climate change considerations in risk assessment processes to guide policy decisions or large-scale investments. Key Result By 2016 vulnerable communities in a minimum of 24 partner countries will have better access to information about physical and societal exposure to disaster risks; and national agencies or cities in these countries will be equipped with improved means to assess and communicate disaster risks. This will lead to improved identification and understanding of disaster risks in partner countries, which is an essential precursor for the management of disaster risks. GFDRR and partners will measure this by evaluating evidence of national or city agencies specifically demonstrating: (i) improved generation or communication of disaster risk information; and (ii) and increased application of risk information in public policy and investment planning. GFDRR will require a projected US$57.2 million to implement activities planned for risk identification during FY14-16 (Table 1). Table 1: Indicative budget envelope for Risk Identification (US$ million) Total

17 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN BOX 1: GFDRR Supported Innovation in Risk Identification Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI): Launched in 2011, OpenDRI seeks to apply the philosophy and practices of the open data movement to the challenge of building resilience to climate change and the impacts of disasters. OpenDRI is now active in more than 20 countries and is supporting community-mapping activities, developing innovative open source software applications and helping local authorities develop their own open data platforms for the use and sharing of data. 5 Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies (InaSAFE): Developed as a collaboration between GFDRR Labs (see Annex III), the Indonesian Disaster Risk Management Agency (BNPB), and the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, InaSAFE is a simple, flexible software tool that allows a user to ask and answer what if questions, and importantly highlights what can be done to reduce disaster impacts. The tool was recently recognized as one of the top-ten open source projects of GFDRR continues to support InaSAFE s development with particular emphasis on training local authorities to use the tool. 7 CAPRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment Program: Since 2008 GFDRR has been supporting the development of the CAPRA platform to design and implement targeted risk assessments. As a free GIS-based platform that can combine multi-hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data, CAPRA allows the user to quantify and visualize risk resulting from a range of hazards. Through GFDRR projects, local experts are trained in the use of CAPRA to design mitigation measures, assess alternative interventions, support contingency planning, and underpin risk-financing strategies. In El Salvador, GFDRR supported the Government to conduct a seismic risk analysis for the health, education, and public sector building portfolios in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador. GFDRR is now supporting a policy dialogue with the Ministry of Finance to help the country take decisions on where and how to invest in risk reduction measures. Similar collaboration is underway with the governments of Costa Rica, Honduras and Belize. CAPRA also supports a thriving online community of more than 900 users. 8 Understanding Risk (UR): GFDRR launched the UR Online Community of Practice in 2010, bringing together leading experts, practitioners and users of disaster risk analysis from a variety of fields. The UR initiative builds on the idea that mixing people from different walks of life leads to innovation. The UR Forum brings this community together every two years in state-of-the-art events that showcase best practices and the latest innovations. The 2012 UR Forum held in Cape Town, attracted 500 experts from more than 80 countries, representing government officials, insurance experts, engineering firms, risk modelers, space agencies and NGOs. The next Forum will take place in See opendri; www. openstreetmap.org 6 See wiredenterprise/2013/01/ open-source-rookies-ofyear 7 See 8 See 9 See www. understandrisk.org

18 16 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Table 2: Highlights of planned Risk Identification activities Region AFR EAP ECA LCR Description Indian Ocean Islands Partners: Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will work with the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) to develop a detailed risk assessment platform similar to PCRAFI in the Pacific to guide risk management interventions, including financial protection strategies. This will be phase one of a longer term financial protection program for vulnerable small-island states in the region. Indicative cost: US$1.3 million. Nigeria Partners: Oyo State Government (OSG) Description: GFDRR will support Oyo State Government (OSG) in formulating a high resolution flood risk assessment for Ibadan city that will provide an overview analysis of the prevailing hazards and vulnerability under current and future climate scenarios, identify areas for priority intervention, and propose flood resilience measures. Indicative cost: US$1 million. Pacific Island Countries (PICs) Partners: Secretariat of the Pacific Community/Applied Geo-science and Technology Division (SPC/SOPAC), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Government of Japan, Government of Australia, European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States Description: GFDRR has supported PICs build their resilience to disasters through the development of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI). This enables the islands to collect and share risk information through an open source platform. As part of the third phase, GFDRR will focus on strengthening the capacity of national and regional technical agencies and improving the data and platforms with which they are now working, including through improving climate change risk information. Indicative cost: US$1.4 million. Kyrgyz Republic Partners: Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES) Description: GFDRR will support MoF and MES to develop exposure datasets and hazard and risk maps to be used for awareness and communication with key stakeholders, develop probabilistic risk profiles and financial tools to assist the Government in the design of a comprehensive financial and fiscal strategy, and to assist relevant line ministries to prioritize and plan retrofitting and risk reduction measures for public infrastructure. These activities will be closely coordinated with the UNDP. Indicative cost: US$1.5 million. Central America and Caribbean Partners: UNISDR (Central America), UNDP (Caribbean) and Center for the Prevention of Natural Disas-ters in Central America (CEPREDENAC) Description: Launched in 2008, the GFDRR-supported Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Program aims to strengthen the capacity of governments to assess, understand and apply disaster risk into development policies and programs. GFDRR will focus support to the program on building capacity for critical infrastructure sectors, including health, education and water and sanitation. As a result, countries will be better able to guide the integration of disaster risk assessments into these sectors. In addition, GFDRR will help national and city agencies quantify disaster risk in financial terms. Indicative cost: US$1.7 million. Africa (AFR) East Asia Pacific (EAP) Latin America and the Caribbean (LCR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) South Asia (SAR)

19 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN Region MNA SAR Description Tunisia Partners: Ministry of Water, Ministry of Interior Description: Tunisia is highly vulnerable to climate related hazards, particularly those resulting from variability in rainfall patterns. In order to address a lack of understanding on the likely impacts of such hazards and the policy implications, GFDRR will support a flood and drought hazard risk assessment in the country. This probabilistic assessment will identify the most at-risk areas of the country, and assess economic impacts and provide options for mitigation. In order to build capacity in the Government to manage sustained assessments, GFDRR will also support the training of key officials and personnel from data and statistical agencies on the risk assessment process, data management and the potential application in policy and investment decisions. Indicative cost: US$1 million. Pakistan Partners: National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Provincial Disaster Management Authorities, the Ministry of Finance, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Flood Commission, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pakistan Geological Survey, Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO), and UNISDR Description: GFDRR will work with the NDMA to pilot a participatory approach to integrated risk assessment and risk financing. The program includes robust monitoring and evaluation that will be used to measure the success of the approach and scale up in five additional countries, which may include Indian Ocean Islands, Togo, Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Nepal and Peru. Indicative cost: US$7 million. Nepal Partners: Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA), Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD), National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET) Description: As the first initiative of a South Asia Open Cities program, GFDRR will work with MoHA and MoUD to build understanding and consensus of the seismic risk in the Kathmandu Valley and flood risk in the Kosi River Basin. A participatory mapping of buildings and other infrastructure in the Kathmandu Valley on an open source online platform using Open Street Map software is already well advanced and provides a solid basis for this work. The program will also provide MoHA and MoUD with a living 3-D model of the Valley that identifies the level of risks to buildings to guide a large retrofitting program. The project looks set to leverage an investment of at least US$50 million in safe construction in the Valley over the coming years Activities are being closely coordinated with the International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies (IFRC), USAID and UNDP. Indicative cost: US$2.7 million. * Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part. Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

20 18 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Action Pillar Two: Risk Reduction People in vulnerable countries will be better protected through improved planning, better building practices and increased investments in vulnerability reduction. GFDRR is currently supporting risk reduction programs in more than 15 countries. These engagements, mostly through technical assistance and capacity building, have already helped leverage more than US$2 billion in investments aimed at reducing the vulnerability of populations in disaster prone countries. GFDRR inputs are generally small-scale interventions, but in many cases have been an important factor in investment decisions by line ministries and other partners, and have led to large-scale investment in education, health, energy, transport, and water (Box 2). GFDRR rarely acts alone in this effort, and many partners including development banks, bilateral donors and UN agencies play a role in stimulating investment in risk reduction. A close partnership with the World Bank has ensured a strong alignment of analytical work and capacity building with subsequent large scale investments. Over the next three years, GFDRR will continue to invest in activities that will influence and leverage large scale investments leading to risk reduction in all sectors (see highlights in Table 4). In this time period, the Facility aims to leverage a minimum of US$10 billion in resiliencebuilding investments; this represents a five-fold increase on the 2013 baseline. In order to develop a positive environment for future decision-making about investing in risk reduction, GFDRR will deliver a series of targeted analytical and advisory projects designed to support the incorporation of risk considerations in policy and public investments. GFDRR will also continue to support the development of the necessary policy and regulatory environment, and incentives for the incorporation of risk considerations in public investments. Key Result By 2016, a minimum of 20 partner countries and their development partners will be better able to make decisions on where and how to reduce disaster risks in society. This will help avoid the creation of new risks, and reduce existing risks in the societies of partner countries through the development of better planning and safer buildings. Ultimately, fewer lives and livelihoods will be lost thanks to this investment. GFDRR and partners will measure this result by evaluating evidence specifically demonstrating: (i) schools and other public infrastructure made safer through retrofitting or resilient construction; (ii) countries or cities implementing new or revised policies to address disaster risk; (iii) investment made in risk reduction measures; and (iv) vulnerable people taking action themselves to reduce risks in their communities. GFDRR will require a projected US$92.1 million to implement activities planned for risk reduction during FY14-16 (Table 3). Table 3: Indicative budget envelope for Risk Reduction (US$ million) Total

21 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN BOX 2: Examples of the role of GFDRR in leveraging investment in risk reduction Malawi: Since 2011, GFDRR has been supporting the Ministry of Water Development and Irrigation in the design of a US$125 million program to improve land and water management in the Shire River Basin in Malawi. The Project Appraisal Document for the Shire River Basin Management Program (SRBMP) describes how the investment will build on work conducted by GFDRR: Currently, the Bank, with funding under GFDRR, is supporting the Government of Malawi with the development of an Integrated Flood Risk Management Plan (IFRMP) for the Shire River Basin. The Action Plan will provide guidance on mitigation (infrastructure and readiness) interventions, flood zoning, forecasting and early warning, to all stakeholders in the basin and will be supported by the SRBMP [The program will] also support the introduction of systematic hydrologic forecasting in Malawi refining tools developed as part of IFRMP. GFDRR supported an analysis of the economic benefits from improved risk management in the Basin, which quantified the risk that floods and droughts pose for the socio-economic development of Malawi. This analysis was complemented by a series of capacity development efforts, which led to the development of the IFRMP. The resulting project aims to protect the livelihoods of 430,000 people, while generating benefits for millions that depend on the river. Philippines: Following tropical storms Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009, GFDRR supported the Philippines Department for Public Works and Highways in the formulation of a Metro Manila Flood Risk Management Master Plan, which sets out 11 key structural mitigation interventions worth US$8.6 billion. The Government of the Philippines formally endorsed the Plan in Speaking at the time, Philippines Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima commented that this support will boost the government s efforts to strengthen the resilience of Metro Manila and surrounding towns and cities: Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng affected close to one million people, many of whom belong to the poorest of the poor. Preventing similar disasters entails reforms in key governance issues such as land use planning, housing, water management, environmental protection, and disaster risk reduction. This grant provides us additional resources to accelerate these reforms. Senegal: In 2012, GFDRR supported the city authorities of the capital Dakar in the design of a large-scale investment program to protect communities from recurrent floods and storm surges that caused economic losses worth US$82 million that year alone and pushed already poor communities deeper into poverty. The Project Appraisal Document for the investment program describes the role of GFDRR: A recent study financed by GFDRR highlighted that almost 40 percent of new population in peri-urban Dakar has settled in areas with significant hazard potential, especially inland flooding A Post-Disaster Need Assessment (PDNA) assessed the cost of the 2009 flooding in Senegal... The proposed project is supporting the implementation of the PDNA priority actions. The US$55.5 million project targets Pikine and Guédiawaye municipalities located in flood-prone, peri-urban catchment areas of Dakar, which are home to 1.2 million people. The funds will finance construction of improved drainage systems and the development of an integrated urban flood risk and storm water management program.

22 20 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Table 4: Highlights of planned Risk Reduction activities* Region AFR EAP LCR Description Mozambique Partners: National Disaster Management Institute (INGC), Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MoPH), Ministry of Education (MoE), and the Bureau of Norms, UN-Habitat, and the Faculty of Architecture of Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) Description: GFDRR will work with INGC, MoPH, MoE and the Bureau of Norms, to implement resilient building codes to reduce the likelihood that children will be killed or injured as a result of building failure during a disaster. Similar work with health centers and other public infrastructure will follow with partners including UN-Habitat and the Faculty of Architecture of Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM). This activity will incorporate lessons learned in Madagascar. Indicative cost: US$0.4 million. Togo Partners: Ministry of Environment, Global Environment Facility (GEF), European Union (EU) and ACP Group of States (ACP) Description: GFDRR will build the capacity of key government institutions and raise awareness about the risks of flooding and land degradation through awareness campaigns at national and local levels. In addition, GFDRR will work with local communities to expand adaptation and sustainable land management practices in climate vulnerable areas. Indicative cost: US$2.2 million. Philippines Partners: Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), the Metro Manila Development Authority, the Department of Health (DoH), and Department of Education (DoE) Description: Since early 2011, GFDRR has assisted DPWH with developing a master plan for flood management in Metro Manila and surrounding areas and in providing advice on flood risk management. The plan calls for US$8.6 billion in investments over the next years and was approved on September 4th, GFDRR has an important opportunity to support the implementation of the master plan focusing on developing institutional arrangements in the metro area for watershed management, reviewing building codes and guidelines, and developing local capacity for enforcement and regulation. Indicative cost: US$5 million. Indonesia Partners: Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Home Affairs Description: GFDRR will work with PNPM to promote risk reduction in community based programs including the National Program for Community Empowerment Mandiri (PNPM). This program provides block grants for small-scale infrastructure, education and health activities at the local level, and GFDRR is working with the program to ensure these small scale interventions build the disaster resilience of the communities they serve. Indicative cost: US$2.8 million. Colombia Partners: National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, National Planning Department, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Education, National Infrastructure Agency, and Colombian Geological Service Description: Since 2012, GFDRR has supported the Rio Bogota Flood Committee to develop a detailed risk modeling platform used by the City of Bogota to guide risk reduction interventions, including retrofitting of schools and hospitals, as well as a comprehensive flood management program. GFDRR will continue to support the city with methodological guidelines for the inclusion of risk in policies and plans as well as the design of M&E tools for assessing implementation and effectiveness of DRM. Indicative cost: US$1.4 million. Africa (AFR) East Asia Pacific (EAP) Latin America and the Caribbean (LCR) Middle East and North Africa (MNA) Europe and Central Asia (ECA) South Asia (SAR)

23 GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY - WORK PLAN Region MNA MNA SAR Description Djibouti Partners: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Higher Education and Research Description: Since 2009, GFDRR has been working in Djibouti to establish a comprehensive risk assessment and communication platform. Initial results include the completion and dissemination of national DRM action plans; the establishment of a DRM E-Learning Lab; and the acquisition and establishment of seven new hydro-met stations. To build on this initial success, GFDRR proposes to support the Government of Djibouti in responding to the findings of the risk assessment and communication platform and to restructure and empower DRM institutions, in light of the elevation of the importance with which the country now considers DRM. Indicative cost: US$2 million. Yemen Partners: Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Public Works Description: In 2010, GFDRR contributed to the completion of three multi-hazard risk assessments and a water harvesting feasibility study in Hadramout, Yemen. Over the next three years, and subject to the political and security situation, GFDRR will support the implementation of mitigation activities identified by the risk assessments. These include designing water harvesting/floods retention systems; operationalizing five existing DRM operational rooms and establishing an early warning system; and establishing a national DRM fund to address disaster preparedness, response, and reconstruction. Indicative cost: US$2 million. Bangladesh Partners: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of Housing and Public Works, RAJUK (Dhaka Development Authority), Public Works Department, Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives, Dhaka City Corporation South, Dhaka City Corporation North, Armed Forces Division, Fire Brigade Description: GFDRR will work with the Ministry of Finance to build understanding and consensus as to the level of seismic risk in Dhaka. The program is engaging over 45 different stakeholders in a multi-year process to increase collective understanding of risk, identify major disincentives for resilient development, support planning for prevention, and gradually shift toward a more proactive approach to resilient development. This is expected to translate into a large investment program aimed at increasing resilience to seismic risk in urban environments, which will be phased over time. Indicative cost: US$6 million. * Financial information refers only to the activities presented, not the larger programs of which they may be part. Activities are for illustrative purposes and the list is not comprehensive. Some planned activities may be part of ongoing financed projects; others are subject to resource mobilization.

24 22 MANAGING DISASTER RISKS FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE Action Pillar Three: Preparedness People in vulnerable countries will be better protected through more accurate and timely early warning, and through civil protection agencies capable of mobilizing a fast response in the event of a disaster. GFDRR has supported the modernization and strengthening of national weather and climate services and broader early warning and preparedness capacity in more than 20 countries. In some cases, this has already led to significant investment and reform by partner countries (see Box 3). To enhance preparedness and response capacity, key priorities include developing standard operating procedures and strengthening information sharing and management; developing local contingency and emergency preparedness plans; linking the plans to early warning systems; and engaging in community-based preparedness planning, including drills and simulation exercises. GFDRR has also played an instrumental role in developing evidence of the broader economic benefits of improved national hydromet services 10, for example in helping to increase agricultural productivity, improve aviation safety or increase efficiency in the water resources management and energy sectors. This has led to a growing recognition on the part of governments of the need to develop better national systems for forecasting and early warning. 10 GFDRR currently finances 23 national incountry focal points that help coordinate and support its program. BOX 3: Examples of GFDRR engagements on early warning Central Asia: In , GFDRR supported the development of an action plan for improving weather and climate service delivery in low-income countries in Central Asia. Using the results of this study, the GFDRR team assisted the meteorological services of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the development of a US$27.7 million project to improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecasts in the region. The project aims to reduce avoidable economic losses from hydro-meteorological disasters. An estimated 12 million people stand to be better prepared for weather and climate extremes. Vietnam: The GFDRR hydromet team recently provided technical and advisory support to a national Managing Natural Hazards project, which includes a US$30 million investment to strengthen weather forecasting and early warning. Over five years, the project will improve the integration and usage of existing hydro-met infrastructure and the communication lines between hydromet services and users. The target is to reach 100 communities with improved early warning and preparedness. This will include the installation and networking of 73 new weather stations and the adoption of a new integrated national early warning system and operations plan for the hydro-met sector by In addition, GFDRR provided technical and financial support to the design and implementation of a government community based preparedness program, which targets 6,000 of the most vulnerable communities in the country. Nepal: GFDRR provided core design support to the planned PPCR project Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards (US$31 million), which will develop an early warning system for the Kosi Basin in Nepal. An important precursor for an effective early warning system is a robust understanding of the hydrology of the river and the probability of flood events. GFDRR will also develop the first ever basin-wide flood model for the Kosi Basin. The model will provide critical real-time information for early warning and will enable the Government of Nepal to better understand how and where people are most at risk. GFDRR will also support community preparedness for these warnings through groups such as the Nepal Red Cross Society.