WORKFORCE PLANNING. Outline
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1 WORKFORCE PLANNING Outline 1. Problem description 2. General Approach 3. Strategic Level Case Study 4. Tactical Level Case Study 5. Operational Level Case Study Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
2 Basic Variables Affecting Manpower Level Decisions Existing Operators (+) New Hires (+) Existing Scheduled Service (+) Scheduled/ Unscheduled Service Additions (+) Operator Availability Operator Demand Attrition Absence Day Off (-) (-) (-) Service Deletions Additional Overtime Cost Less Benefit Cost Less Than Availability Demand Equal to No Additional Cost Greater Than Additional Guarantee Cost Additional Benefit Cost Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
3 General Approach Strategic Level workforce size hiring plan vacation allocation Tactical Level extra staff by day of week Operational Level report times for unassigned extra staff Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
4 Problem Description By period of year: absence hours required extra work attrition Strategic Level: workforce size vacation allocation hiring patterns Budget Service Plan Vacation Liability Work Rules Policies By garage and day of week: absence hours required extra work Tactical Level: extraboard allocation by garage and day of week Work Rules Policies By garage and time of day: absence hours required extra work Operational Level: report times for available extraboard operators Work Rules Policies Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
5 costs budget work rules scheduled hours extra work required STRATEGIC PLANNING workforce size ABSENCE open work OVERTIME available strain OVERTIME worked missed trips RELIABILITY l.o.s. ridership Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
6 Hiring Options A. Quarterly Hiring Operator Surplus Extraboard Operator Deficit Manpower Required (Available) Winter Spring Summer Fall Time of Year Timetable Requirements Vacation Relief Implications: Unassigned cover time at start of timetable Large amounts of overtime at end of timetable Poor reliability at end of timetable Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
7 Total Unscheduled Pay Workday-Off and Second Run Premium Pay with Associated Variable Fringe Benefits Guarantee and Associated Variable Fringe Benefits Optimal Location Cost Fixed Fringe Benefits Number of Extraboard Operations Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
8 Optimal Extraboard Size and Unscheduled Guarantee and Premium 100 0PERCENT DAYS Optimal Extraboard p(x) = 16% B A Workday-Off/ Second Run Premium No Work Available Guarantee SCHEDULED RUNS Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
9 The Strategic Level Approach 1. Decision Variables Workforce Size for Each Period Vacation Allocation for Each Period Optimal Hiring Levels for Each Period 2. Objective: Minimize Workforce Cost Scheduled Runs Extraboard Overtime Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
10 The Strategic Level Approach 3. Constraints Vacation Liability Overtime Service Reliability Part-time Operation Constraints Other Policy Constraints Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
11 Overtime and Feedback 1. Regular Overtime the result of more required work than available extraboard on a given day 2. Excess Overtime the result of inherent inefficiency in assigning daily report times DAILY OPERATIONS PROFILE Open Runs/ Available Coverage Open Run Profile Available Cover Profile Unassigned Cover Overtime or Missed Trips Time of Day Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
12 The Excess Overtime Curve Excess overtime is a maximum when the number of required work hours exactly matches the number of extraboard hours available Excess overtime decreases with fewer required work hours or available workforce hours Daily Excess Overtime Curve k Excess Overtime Hours -b 0 +b Available Cover - Required Cover Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
13 Expected Overtime for the Period Takes into account of variation of both the required work hours and day-to-day variability of the size of the extraboard REGULAR AND EXCESS OVERTIME OVERTIME REGULAR TOTAL EXCESS 0 WORKFORCE - AVERAGE REQUIRED WORK Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
14 Overtime Effects on Total Workforce Costs TOTAL WORKFORCE COSTS TOTAL COST COSTS TOTAL OT SCHEDULED WORKFORCE REGULAR OT EXCESS OT 0 WORKFORCE - AVERAGE REQUIRED WORK Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
15 A Reliability Model Open Work Overtime Available Operator Available Yes No No Willingness to Work Overtime Yes Missed Trips Overtime Worked Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
16 Missed Service Hours Missed Trips (Hours) Open Work (Hours) Missed Service Hours = 0.28 x Open Work Hours Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
17 Case Study (Based on Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority Bus Operations) Characteristics Part-time workforce sized to 40% of the full-time workforce Large variability in the required work hours Mean Daily Absence and Extra Work: 1250 hours Daily Standard Deviation of Absence and Extra Work: 290 Hours Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
18 MBTA Cost Analysis (1996) Overtime Part-Timer Full-Timer Wage Rate ($/Hour) Full Cost/Hour Worked Marginal Cost if last extraboard used 75% of time Marginal Cost if last extraboard used 50% of time Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
19 Available Operator Hours 9000 Missed Trips (Hours) o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Available Operator Hours O = regular time cost o = regular time cost + regular OT cost x = total cost Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
20 Results of Constant Hiring and Constant Vacation Constraints Base Case Constant Hiring Constant Vacation Constant Hiring & Vacation FT Oper PT Oper Overtime (%) OT cost* Reg cost* Tot cost* Reliability (%) Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
21 Results for Different Overtime Constraints Base Case 1.5% OT no OT Const 5% OT Const 1% OT Const FT Oper PT Oper Overtime (%) OT cost* reg cost* tot cost* reliability (%) * Costs are in millions of dollars per year Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
22 Tactical Level (Timetable/Rating Level) Objective: minimize weighted sum of overtime missed trips Decision variables: allocate extra staff by garage (area of depot) by day of week Inputs: operator timetable requirements by day of week and garage mean and standard deviation of absence and required extra work by day of week and garage Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
23 Tactical Level (Timetable/Rating Level) Constraints: total available operators Key relationships: requested overtime as a function of total available operators, timetable requirements, absence, and required extra work missed service as a function of requested overtime Method: heuristic or optimization method Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
24 Application of Tactical Model to Single MBTA Garage Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
25 Tactical Level Findings Significant variation in absence and required extra work by garage by day of week Variably sized extraboard is appropriate by garage by day of week Data required on absence and extraboard utilization by garage and day of week Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
26 Operational Level (Daily Level) Objective: minimize weighted sum of overtime missed trips Decision variables: extra staff report times in ranked order by garage (area or depot) by day of week Inputs: operator timetable requirements by time of day known extra work by time of day Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
27 Operational Level (Daily Level) Constraints: extraboard work rules Key relationships: likelihood of missed trip resulting if no cover operator available, by time of day Method: heuristic or optimization method Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
28 Probability of Open Run Profile PROBABILITY OF RUN BEING OPEN Actual Smoothed TIME OF DAY Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
29 Unexpected Absences by Day-of-Week Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
30 Expected Weighted Uncovered Open Work Day of Week DHS HS FLAT Monday Tuesday Wednesday Assumes 6 FTOs, 4 PTOs available on extraboard Key: DHS = day and hour specific absence rates HS = assumes hour specific absence rates only FLAT = assumes constant absence rate for all days and hours Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
31 Evaluating Current Practice: Weighted Uncovered Open Work (Hours) Date Rep. Oper. Actual Rep. Model Results (FTO-PTO) 6/ / / / / Data are for 5 consecutive Mondays for a specific MBTA garage Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
32 Actual vs. Recommended Report Times Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
33 Operational Level Findings Significant improvements possible reduced overtime reduced missed trips Single set of ranked report times can be used across all weekdays and seasons for each garage separate ranked report times required for Saturdays, Sundays Constant absence rates can be assumed by hour of day by day of week Nigel H.M. Wilson 1.259J/11.542J/ESD/227J, Fall
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