The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change: from dreams to reality

Transcription

1 The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change: from dreams to reality Céline Charveriat EESC meeting 22 and 23 May 2016

2 IEEP & SDGs: The contribution of a European sustainability think tank Asking the right questions «Toute connaissance est une réponse à une question.» (Gaston Bachelard) What safe and just space for Europe? Which national and collective European preferences are compatible with science and universality? How to resolve justice issues (generation, equity inclusiveness or putting those furthest behind first) Searching for solutions with our work on circular economy and marine litter: Source: Kate Raworth. Doughnut Economics. 2017

3 What ambition for Europe? Example of stop-gap analysis based on top 5 OECD performers. Source: Based on Bertelsmann Stiftung & SDSN SDG Index and Dashboard A global report.

4 What pathway? The importance of back-casting and scenario building Backcasting: generating a desirable future, and then looking backwards from that future to the present in order to strategize and to plan how it could be achieved Integrating relevant SDGs and other targets (UNFCCC midcentury net zero emissions) Taking into account real potential for change (speed and scale) Based on latest science Taking into account the unknowns

5 The case of European agriculture What tipping points along the way? Change in demand? Market and trade driven? Disasters/ecological collapse? Technology? Demographical transition? CAP ( ) MFF ( ) Europe 2030 strategy Submission to UNFCCC What mix of production models? What level of activity and employment? What 2030 objectives in line with SDGs and midcentury strategy? How much reduction in GHG and increased sequestration? What consumption level and mix? What costs and what burden sharing? Low carbon and resilient EU agriculture in line with 1.5 degree, fair shares and other planetary boundaries, contributing to health, food security, reduced poverty and inequality

6 What does universal mean for Europe? The special case of OECD (and possibly other) countries: 1) domestic targets 2) do-no-harm targets to minimize external negative effects Avoid beggar thy neighbour approaches 3) International responsibility targets Support others in achieving their goals in line with Common But Differentiated Responsbility and Capacities Source: Climate Equity Reference Project, Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS, (November 2015).

7 What path interdependency? The example of meat and dairy consumption

8 What role for research and innovation? Interdisciplinary research Key forms of innovation Technology? New supply chains (secondary raw materials) Governance Financial (e.g. high level group on sustainable finance) What enabling framework for meaningful innovation? Source: PwC, Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).

9 Shifting the trillions: Mainstreaming and beyond? What financing gap in Europe? What role for public finance (local, MS, EU), citizens (e.g. divestment) and private European Union level: Next MFF: Towards sustainability proofing? Own resources? Innovative instruments (see new ETS Just transition fund) Role of EIB Enabling macroeconomic framework: ECB Headlines of current MFF s effectiveness Horizontal mainstreaming of sustainable development via Article 8 of 2013 CPR and climate 20% target Est. 18.9% of the total EU budget for climate action by 2020 i.e. Eur. 200 bn (EC, 2016). Effectiveness of spending? 57.1 % of European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) earmarked for climate action i.e. 56 bn Lack of description of specific climate action measures within programs Bulk of allocations have climate change as a secondary objective Mitigation vs. adaptation confusion?

10 What governance and processes? Some top down? Science-based objective setting and road map: independent panel of experts Collective approach to impact on third countries (.e.g trade) Bottom up process of MS contributions: indicative national contributions (thereby strengthening the existing process in the HLPF) every two years. Deeper societal engagement: A process similar to the Paris-Lima agenda, with pledges from local authorities, businesses and civil society, citizen engagement Monitoring and accountability: Regular sense-making exercise with effective feedback loop New toolbox: e.g. new Agenda 21 tools, just transition methodology, 3D projects from C40, OECD better life-index; Italy s budget indicators; Germany s legislative Sustainability Impact Assessments; EU guardian of future generations; Sustainability proofing of MFF

11 How to inform the public and whose job is it? A big knowledge gap 36% of EU population have heard of SDGs, with 10% only knowing what they are (Eurobarometer, 2015) 19% of Germans knowing a lot or some about SDGs and 27% in the UK (Globescan, 2016) What narrative? Difficulty in describing the beach More or less Europe vs. positive valuebased narrative We are doing great vs. transformation Us vs. them Net trust in institutions (%) Institutions Science and academia 48 NGOs 30 UN 15 Business 12 National governments Media -1% 1 Source: Globescan (2016). Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries.

12 Sources AlphaBeta, Valuing the SDG Prize in Food and Agriculture, Business and Sustainable Development Commission (October 2016). Christian Kroll, Sustainable Development Goals: Are the rich countries ready, Guetersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015). Climate Equity Reference Project, Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS, (November 2015). European Commission, EU28 Highlights, Special Eurobarometer 441 (November-December 2015). European Commission, Next steps for a sustainable European future: European action for sustainability, COM(2016) 739 final (Strasbourg, 22 November 2016). Eurostat, Sustainable development in the European Union: A Statistical Glance from the Viewpoint of the UN SDGs, (2016). Globescan, Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries, (2016). Globescan, Awareness of SDGs vs MDGs: How engaged are global citizens? (presented at the OECD DevCom Annual Meeting, 9 November 2016). Guido Schmidt-Traub, Implementing the SDGs: Are European countries ready?, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (presented at the EESC Conference Next steps for a sustainable European future - Reforming Europe, implementing SDGs, Brussels, Belgium 7 July 2016). Ingeborg Niestroy, How are we getting ready? The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the EU and its Member States: Analysis and Action so far, German Development Institute (9/2016). Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist, Chelsea Green Publishing (2017). PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017). Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Bertelsmann Stiftung, SDG Index and Dashboards Global Report (2016).

13 Thank you for your attention!