Macro-Fiscal Policy Frameworks in Resource-Rich Countries (RRCs) OANA LUCA (IMF/FAD) BANGKOK DECEMBER 7, 2016

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1 Macro-Fiscal Policy Frameworks in Resource-Rich Countries (RRCs) OANA LUCA (IMF/FAD) BANGKOK DECEMBER 7, 2016 Stylized Facts Mixed impact of natural resources on growth.with revenue volatility affecting budgets. Disappointing poverty and human development outcomes. and remaining large infrastructure gaps. Note: Median and interquartile range, in percent. LIC=Low Income Countries. LMIC= Lower Middle Income Countries. RR= Resource Rich Source: IMF Executive Board paper on Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries (2012) 2 1

2 Fiscal policy challenges in RRCs. (1) Transform Investment/savings decisions sub-soil assets into financial, physical, and human capital assets How much of the resource revenue flow should be allocated to consume and how much to save in each period? Where to save and invest? Constraints on scaling up investment Absorption constraints (declining rate of return as the pace of investment increases) Political economy ( capture of resource windfall) Debt and borrowing (Perception of) resource wealth may increase the capacity to borrow as it increases the (perceived) capacity to service debt Fiscal policy challenges in RRCs. (2) Manage resource revenue exhaustibility Will the fiscal and external policy be sustainable after the depletion of the resource in the ground? Intergenerational equity considerations Manage revenue uncertainty and volatility Focus is usually on prices but production volumes and costs are also uncertain and can lead to volatility 2

3 . and responses/ objectives As in any other country, the macro-fiscal policy framework needs to address Demand management (short term) Inter-temporal solvency (long term) while incorporating country-specific considerations Resource horizon (temporary vs long-lasting) Sensitivity to revenue volatility (high or low) Domestic capital scarcity/development needs Absorption capacity and public investment efficiency. and strengthening fiscal policy predictability and institutions. Rule of thumb: A high proportion of resource revenue should go to savings and domestic investment; avoid boom-bust cycles by smoothing spending delinked from resource revenue dynamics. Fiscal policy frameworks: key components Long term fiscal sustainability benchmark A sustainable fiscal framework implies that current spending, tax and other policies can be maintained over time without threatening solvency or defaulting on liabilities or expenditure commitments. Fiscal policy must respect the intertemporal budget constraint, incorporating resource revenue Use sustainability benchmarks to assess non-resource primary deficit: Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) Modified PIH Fiscal Sustainability Framework Fiscal policy indicators Overall fiscal balance total revenue minus expenditure Indicates net financial position (measure of financial vulnerability) Non-resource primary balance overall fiscal balance excluding resource revenue and expenditure associated with the development of the resource sector and interest payments Indicates underlying fiscal policy stance Can be compared against a sustainability benchmark Structural balance Fiscal balance in which the resource component of budget revenue is calculated on the basis of cyclically-adjusted ( structural ) prices rather than actual commodity prices. Fiscal policy anchor/rule Supportive fiscal institutions Non-resource primary balance rule (Timor Leste) Set the non-resource primary deficit in line with the long run sustainability benchmark Particularly relevant for countries with temporary resource flows Strengthen public financial management (PFM) systems Develop credible medium-term orientation to the budget Improve public investment management process Bolster fiscal transparency Structural balance rule (pricesmoothing) (Chile) Set the fiscal balance with structural resource revenue to zero Can be used to insulate spending from price volatility Particularly relevant for countries with long resource horizon Possible use of resource funds should reinforce the fiscal policy framework, not be a separate policy tool Integrate resource revenue and funds into the budget process and PFM framework No parallel spending program Other rules: Price-based or fixed proportion rules (Ghana); nonresource current balance rule (Botswana) 3

4 Guiding matrix for macro-fiscal frameworks Resource Revenue (mining and petroleum) Long-lasting (>30 years) Country-specific Decision Matrix High Capital Scarcity (Infrastructure gaps; development needs) Low Short-term (<30 years) Objectives Examples Objectives Examples Managing volatility Development Nigeria Iraq Peru Mongolia Sustainability/exhaustibility Development Bolivia Ghana Rule: Flexible structural balance perhaps with front-loaded investment Rule: Flexible PIH-based non-resource primary balance with front-loaded investment Managing volatility Sustainability/exhaustibility Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Chile Rule: Structural balance perhaps with expenditure growth cap UK Netherlands Norway Rule: PIH-based non-resource primary balance Conclusions A country-specific fiscal policy framework should guide the allocation of resource revenue between saving and spending, balancing financial saving with gradual scaling-up of investment The policy framework could be reinforced by fiscal policy rules (flexible, credible, transparent) The non-resource fiscal primary balance should be monitored as a measure of the fiscal stance, and could anchor fiscal policy if resource horizon is relatively short A fiscal rule based on the structural primary balance could limit the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy if the resource horizon is relatively long, and when absorption capacity is limited The resource revenue should be integrated into the fiscal policy and budget framework, and could be reinforced by an integrated resource fund. Build capacity for a forward-looking, medium-term orientation to the budget and strengthen public financial management 4

5 Thank you 5