2018/2019 Planning Resource Auction Results. Resource Adequacy Subcommittee May 9, 2018

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1 2018/2019 Planning Resource Auction Results Resource Adequacy Subcommittee May 9, 2018

2 Overview Auction Results Summary Year Over Year Comparison Additional Details on PRMR and Supply 2

3 2018/2019 Auction Clearing Price Overview Zone 1 Local Balancing Authorities DPC, GRE, MDU, MP, NSP, OTP SMP Price $/MW Day $ ALTE, MGE, UPPC, WEC, WPS, MIUP $ ALTW, MEC, MPW $ AMIL, CWLP, SIPC $ AMMO, CWLD $ BREC, CIN, HE, IPL, NIPS, SIGE $ CONS, DECO $ EAI $ CLEC, EES, LAFA, LAGN, LEPA $ EMBA, SME $

4 Summary of Auction Results MISO Region has adequate resources to meet its Planning Reserve Margin Requirement of 135,179 MW Multiple marginal resources set prices for Zone 1 and Zones 2-10 There will be a ZDB allocation of $0.04 for the planning year SFT passed on the 1 st iteration Increased demand and lower supply largely responsible for higher Auction Clearing Prices relative to last year The Independent Market Monitor reviewed the results for physical and economic withholding to ensure a competitive market outcome There were no instances of mitigation for physical or economic withholding 4

5 ZDB Calculation Summary Two DBZs: LRZ 1 is an exporting DBZ LRZ 2-10 are an aggregate, importing DBZ MISO will over collect $4,645/day from load in the importing DBZ No inter-dbz FRAP Excess revenue allocated pro rata to total PRMR in the importing DBZ $4,645/(135,179-18,413.90) = $0.04 LRZ PRMR Cleared Resources ACP ACP x PRMR ACP x Resources 1 18, , $1.00 $18, $18, , , $10.00 $134, $133, , , $10.00 $98, $104, , , $10.00 $100, $89, , , $10.00 $85, $79, , , $10.00 $187, $190, , , $10.00 $221, $218, , , $10.00 $80, $103, , , $10.00 $209, $194, , , $10.00 $49, $48, , , $1,186, $1,181, Surplus $4,

6 Planning Resource Auction Results Local Resource Zone Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 System PRMR 18,414 13,463 9,805 10,060 8,549 18,741 22,121 8,088 20,976 4, ,179 Total Offer Submitted (Including FRAP) 19,560 13,954 10,884 11,002 7,944 19,221 22,036 10,939 21,196 5, ,781 FRAP 14,431 11,196 4,170 1, ,803 12, ,428 47,030 Self Scheduled (SS) 4,046 1,930 5,979 6,636 7,934 16,105 9,193 9,706 16,509 2,858 80,896 Non SS Offer Cleared , , , ,253 Total Committed (Offer Cleared + FRAP) 18,930 13,342 10,456 8,927 7,944 19,087 21,801 10,387 19,463 4, ,179 LCR 15,832 12,373 7,374 4,960 5,693 12,090 20,628 4,744 19,319 4,463 N/A CIL 4,415 2,595 3,369 6,411 4,332 7,941 3,785 4,834 3,622 2,688 N/A Import , , ,812 CEL 516 2,017 5,430 4,280 2,122 3,249 2,578 2,424 2,149 1,824 N/A Export , ,812 ACP ($/MW Day) $1.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 N/A *Volume of uncleared offers can be calculated by subtracting Total Committed from Total Offer Submitted 6

7 Year over Year Comparisons 7

8 Approved Tariff filings since the 2017/2018 PRA Tariff revisions approved in FERC Docket ER and -001 documenting the calculation of Sub-Regional Import and Export Constraints and the Independent Market Monitor s calculation of going-forward costs for Reference Levels Tariff revisions approved in FERC Docket ER to authorize the extension or reopening of the Planning Resource Auction ( PRA ) offer window when necessitated by unanticipated events Tariff revisions approved in FERC Docket ER to allow Market Participants greater flexibility in the qualification of certain resource types for the Planning Resource Auction, allowing for additional components of Installed Capacity to be deferred in addition to the Generation Verification Test Capacity (GVTC) Re-filed Tariff provisions (no changes) regarding Planning Resource Auction re-approved in FERC Docket ER

9 Capacity Requirements Local Resource Zone Local Clearing requirement (LCR) in MW Planning Reserve Margin Requirement (PRMR) in MW Coincident Peak Demand Forecast (CPDF) in MW ,975 15,832 18,316 18,414 16,367 16, ,980 12,373 13,366 13,463 12,144 12, ,968 7,374 9,781 9,805 8,828 8, ,839 4,960 9,894 10,060 8,952 9, ,885 5,693 8,598 8,549 7,838 7, ,005 12,090 18,422 18,741 16,496 16, ,109 20,628 22,295 22,121 20,012 19, ,766 4,744 8,329 8,088 7,560 7, ,295 19,319 20,850 20,976 18,943 18, ,831 4,463 4,902 4,963 4,493 4,495 9

10 Zonal Import and Export Limits Local Resource Zone Capacity Import Limit (MW) Capacity Export Limit (MW) Import/(Export) in Auction (MW) ,531 4, (613) (516) 2 2,227 2,595 2,290 2,017 (400) ,408 3,369 1,772 5,430 (503) (651) 4 5,815 6,411 11,756 4, , ,096 4,332 2,379 2, ,248 7,941 3,191 3,249 (243) (346) 7 3,320 3,785 2,519 2, ,275 4,834 2,493 2,424 (1,810) (2,299) 9 3,371 3,622 2,373 2,149 2,198 1, ,910 2,688 1,747 1,824 (385) 120 Z1 Z7 1,500 1,500 3,000 3,000 (3) 683 Z8 Z10 3,000 3,000 1,500 1,500 3 (683) 10

11 ZRC FRAP & Offer Information LRZ FRAP + Self Schedule (SS) Price Sensitive Offer Total (FRAP + ZRC Offer) FRAP + SS as % of Total Offers ,365 18,477 1,270 1,082 19,635 19,560 94% 94% 2 13,672 13,127 1, ,149 13,954 90% 94% 3 9,771 10,148 1, ,009 10,884 89% 93% 4 8,435 7,772 2,183 3,231 10,618 11,002 79% 71% 5 7,948 7, ,950 7, % 100% 6 17,165 17,908 1,553 1,313 18,718 19,221 92% 93% 7 21,836 21, ,031 22,036 99% 97% 8 10,129 10, ,914 10,939 93% 93% 9 16,687 16,681 3,704 4,515 20,392 21,196 82% 79% 10 5,009 4, ,732 5,046 87% 85% System 129, ,926 13,130 13, , ,781 91% 90% 11

12 Additional Details Regarding Supply Demand Resource quantities include Aggregator of Retail Customers (ARCs) that registered for the PRA 12

13 Cleared Capacity by Fuel Type Planning Year Change GADS Fuel Type System (MW) % Fuel System (MW) % Fuel Delta (MW) Delta (%) Coal 52, % 48, % (3,324) 2.61% Gas 48, % 50, % 2, % Nuclear 12, % 12, % (36) 0.03% Load Modifier (DR/EE) 6, % 7, % 1, % Water 5, % 5, % % Oil 3, % 3, % % Wind 2, % 2, % % Waste Heat 1, % 1, % % Other Solid(Tons) % % (9) 0.03% Distallate Oil % % (67) 0.06% Other Liquid(BBL) % % % Other Gas(Cu Ft) % % (11) 0.02% Wood % % % Solar % % % SYSTEM 134, % 135, % 426 Note: BTMG units are included in Fuel totals 13

14 Additional Details on PRMR and Supply 14

15 Supplemental Data for PRMR and LCR Calculations Local Resource Zone Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 SYSTEM CPDF (Coincident Peak Demand Forecast) 16,529 12,204 8,872 9,100 7,773 16,761 19,851 7,279 18,952 4, ,816 CPDF + Transmission Losses 16,987 12,419 9,045 9,280 7,887 17,289 20,407 7,461 19,350 4, ,703 Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) PRMR (Planning Reserve Margin Requirement) ZCPDF (Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast) 8.40% 18,414 13,463 9,805 10,060 8,549 18,741 22,121 8,088 20,976 4, ,179 17,176 12,404 9,148 9,282 7,975 16,995 20,674 7,528 19,938 4, ,838 ZCPDF + Trans. Losses 17,637 12,621 9,326 9,466 8,091 17,509 21,173 7,716 20,356 4, ,698 LRR (Local Reliability Requirement) Factor N/A LRR 20,247 14,969 10,743 11,511 10,025 20,031 24,413 9,776 22,941 7,151 N/A CIL (Capacity Import Limit) 4,415 2,595 3,369 6,411 4,332 7,941 3,785 4,834 3,622 2,688 N/A Non Pseudo Tied Exports LCR (Local Clearing Requirement) 15,832 12,373 7,374 4,960 5,693 12,090 20,628 4,744 19,319 4,463 N/A LCR as a % of PRMR 86% 92% 75% 49% 67% 65% 93% 59% 92% 90% N/A 15

16 Planning Reserve Margin Requirement (PRMR) 136, , , , , , , (483) 134, , , , , , Auction PRMR Increase in Coincident Peak Forecast Decrease in Transmission Losses Increase in PRM Auction PRMR All values in MW 16

17 MISO Offer Curve, 2017/2018 vs. 2018/2019 All Zones Constrained vs Unconstrained Offer Curve Key Unconstrained = YY YY Constrained = (YY YY ) PRMR (18 19 ) (17 18 ) Offer ($) Conduct Threshold Capacity 17

18 Supplemental Data Regarding UCAP and ZRCs IMM reviews all offers for market monitoring to ensure: Valid explanation for resources that don t offer into the PRA Offers are not an exercise of market power Provided 33 facility specific Reference Levels 30 of the 33 used default technology specific avoidable costs Below are reasons approved by the IMM why qualified resources did not offer into the PRA for : Capacity sales to other markets, both pseudo-tied and non pseudo-tied Generator pending retirement Generator Suspended and isn t able to return by July 1 st Lack of available firm transmission service ICAP overstated GVTC test higher than normal operations 18

19 UCAP Confirmation and Conversion LRZ Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Total Formulas UCAP Total 20,468 15,058 11,281 13,346 7,967 19,352 22,101 11,391 22,037 5, ,418 A UCAP (Confirmed) 20,426 15,058 11,238 13,346 7,967 19,352 22,101 11,391 22,037 5, ,333 B UCAP (Unconfirmed) Converted UCAP (ZRC) C=A B 20,036 13,954 10,894 11,201 7,967 19,247 22,085 11,218 21,685 5, ,375 D Unconverted UCAP 390 1, , ,958 E=B D FRAP + ZRC Offer 19,560 13,954 10,884 11,002 7,944 19,221 22,036 10,939 21,196 5, ,781 F ZRC Not Offered/FRAP MW/ZRC not participating in MISO PRA ,594 G=D F 908 1, , ,637 H=C+E+G Non-participating MW/ZRC represents total of Unconfirmed UCAP, Confirmed but Unconverted UCAP and Converted UCAP (ZRCs) that were not offered or used in a FRAP Common reasons why ZRCs may not participate in a PRA: Capacity sales to other markets Suspensions not participating in PRA Exclusion granted by the IMM General physical withholding from the PRA within the Physical Withholding Threshold 19

20 Cleared MW by Resource Type by LRZ MISO grouped multiple LRZs together as needed to ensure data confidentiality RESOURCE TYPE Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4 Z5 Z6 Z7 Z8 Z9 Z10 Demand Resources Behind the Meter Generation 1, ,186 1,493 1,069 1, Energy Efficiency 173 External Resources 1, Generation 15,128 11,967 9,091 7,410 7,733 16,697 19,547 9,755 18,900 4,627 Note: Sec of the Tariff address confidentiality requirements 20

21 Next Steps Masked offer data will be available May 18, Planning Resource Adequacy Navigator PRA Document PY For reference, MISO posted slides with the PRA Results meeting on April 13,

22 Common Acronyms ACP Auction Clearing Price ($/MW-Day) BTMG Behind The Meter Generator DR Demand Resource DBZ Deliverability Benefit Zone CEL Capacity Export Limit (MW) CIL Capacity Import Limit (MW) CPDF Coincident Peak Demand Forecast (MW) FRAP Fixed Resource Adequacy Plan (MW) FSRL Facility Specific Reference Level ($/MW-day) LCR Local Clearing Requirement (MW) LOLE Loss Of Load Expectation LRZ Local Resource Zone PRA Planning Resource Auction PRM Planning Reserve Margin (%) PRMR Planning Reserve Margin Requirement (MW) SFT Simultaneous Feasibility Test SREC Sub-Regional Export Constraint UCAP Unforced Capacity (MW) ZCPDF Zonal Coincident Peak Demand Forecast (MW) ZDB Zonal Deliverability Benefits ZRC Zonal Resource Credit (MW) 22