Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA FOR A SIXTH HIGHWAY PROJECT June 5, 1980 FILE COPY ReportNo. P-2841-UNI This document bas a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performnce of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Naira (N) US$1 - NO.55 Nl = US$1.82 MEASURES 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile (mi) ABBREVIATIONS FMW - Federal Ministry of Works LGC - Local Government Council NPA - Nigerian Ports Authority NRC - Nigerian Railway Corporation Fiscal Year April 1 - March 31 (until January 1, 1981) January - December 31 (from January 1, 1981)

3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY NIGERIA - SIXTH HIGHWAY PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Amount: Terms: Project Description: Federal Republic of Nigeria US$108 million Payable over 20 years, including 5 years of grace, at an interest rate of 8.25 percent per annum. The project would assist in alleviating some critical weaknesses in road planning, design, construction, and maintenance activities of the federal highway authorities. It would consist of strengthening about 520 km of federal roads, and carrying out economic and engineering studies of a major North-South road and a survey to establish improvement priorities for the federal trunk road network. Consultants would be engaged to continue and expand a program for the training of road maintenance technicians, and experts recruited to fill critical positions in the Federal Ministry of Works. The project would also assist in constructing 14 staff housing units, and in providing road safety and pavement testing equipment. There are no unusual risks for this type of project. This document has resr,ctd diuibution and may be wed by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents nmy not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

4 - ii - Estimated Cost:* Local Foreign Total US$ Millions Road Strengthening Studies Economic/Engineering Studies Federal Trunk Road Study Subtotal Institution Building and Technical Assistance Consultants for Training Experts for FMW Housing for Experts Subtotal Equipment Road Safety Pavement Testing Subtotal Total Base Costs Physical Contingencies Price Contingencies Total Project Cost (including taxes and duties of US$7.1 million) Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total US$ Millions IBRD Federal Government Total * Cost figures are rounded

5 - iii - Estimated Disbursements: Bank Fiscal Year US$ Millions Annual Cumulative Rate of Return: 30 percent on road strengthening component (77 percent of total project cost). Staff Appraisal Report: 2833-UNI, dated June 2, 1980

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7 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO NIGERIA FOR A SIXTH HIGHWAY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Federal Republic of Nigeria for the equivalent of US$108 million to help finance a project for road strengthening and maintenance in Nigeria. The loan would have a term of 20 years, including 5 years of grace, with interest at 8.25 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A Country Economic Memorandum on Nigeria (Report 2428-UNI), dated June 19, 1979, has been distributed to the Executive Directors. The following paragraphs summarize the major conclusions of that report, and update them on the basis of more recent developments. Country data are attached as Annex I. Political Background 3. Following 13 years of military rule, a civilian government assumed office in Nigeria on October 1, The government is headed by Mr. Shehu Shagari, leader of the National Party of Nigeria, which emerged from the elections as the party with the greatest and widest support. The economic policies of the new administration have yet to be formulated in detail. Nevertheless, Mr. Shagari has indicated that his policies with respect to domestic and foreign affairs will follow the same broad principles as those espoused by the outgoing administration. Rural development, increased food production, education and low-cost housing are focal points of the new administration's program. A greater role of the private sector in development is envisaged. Economic Developments Nigeria has an estimated population of about 81 million (1978), with a per capita income of around US$560. Per capita income alone, however, is not a satisfactory indicator of the average living standard in Nigeria. In terms of such criteria as child mortality, life expectancy, and number of people per physician, Nigeria ranks amongst the poorest countries in the world. Oil has been a major resource for Nigeria for over a decade, but acquired a dominating influence in the economy only after the sharp escalation of oil prices in 1973/74. Within a year, oil revenues tripled, rising to over US$6.5 billion (roughly US$100 per capita) in 1974/75 1/ This section is substantially unchanged from the President's Report for an Oyo-North Agricultural Development Project in Oyo State, approved by the Board on April 29, 1980.

8 and foreign exchange earnings rose commensurately. This occurred at a time when Nigeria depended primarily on agriculture for income and employment. It had only a small industrial base and the existing infrastructure was deficient and in a very poor state. 5. The nation's first concern at that time was to use the oil wealth to improve greatly - indeed revolutionize - the state of the country's social and physical infrastructure, and establish heavy industry. The Government simultaneously set out to achieve satisfactory growth of agriculture and light manufacturing to ensure broadly-based economic progress. All these concerns were underscored in the Third National Development Plan ( ). The plan was prepared in the midst of the oil boom and reflected the optimism and confidence of that time. It contemplated a total investment program of about US$50 billion (representing a three-fold increase over the previous plan period), with the public sector accounting for about US$35 billion (subsequently raised close to US$45 billion due to cost increases). The public sector program contained large allocations for transport (28 percent) and industry (19 percent), and an ambitious goal for free and compulsory universal primary education (UPE) by 1980 was set. The economy was expected to grow at 9.5 percent a year, with agriculture growing at 5 percent and manufacturing at 18 percent. 6. The actual course of events, however, turned out to be quite different. In the post-oil boom period, the Nigerian economy grew at an average rate of 6 percent a year. There was little increase in the agricultural output and the growth of manufacturing, at 12 percent a year, remained below the Third Plan target. Although construction, power, transport, and public services expanded at around 20 percent a year, serious physical bottlenecks emerged. Acute power shortages and congested ports and roads undermined the productivity of existing industrial plants, upset the normal distribution channels and caused consumer frustration. These factors contributed to a rapid increase in production costs, which in turn made it generally difficult for domestic production in both agriculture and manufacturing to compete with foreign produced goods. Because the fastest growing tertiary sectors are concentrated in the urban areas, economic growth had a strong urban bias which tended to accentuate urban-rural income inequalities and encourage emigration of young labor from rural areas. Also, private investment, at least in the early years, remained sluggish for a variety of reasons, such as the indigenization measures and the uncertain domestic and international economic environment. 7. The oil revenues, which were critical for the implementation of the proposed public sector program, fell substantially short of expectations, while the actual costs of the programs and projects turned out to be much higher. Large deficits in the government budget and balance of payments appeared quite early in the period, and the resource constraint came to reassert itself much sooner than expected. Although the additional oil revenues were used largely to augment the nation's capital stock (the

9 - 3 - federal budget current surplus amounted to 60 percent of current revenues), capital expenditures rose so quickly -- seven-fold between 1973/74 and 1977/78 -- that the budget was in substantial deficit already by 1975/ As provided in the Third Plan, government investment concentrated on transport, heavy industry and education, which yielded some impressive results, particularly in roads and ports. Not surprisingly, the much enlarged public sector investments, together with the growing financial difficulties, considerably strained the existing administrative capacity. Thus, costs and project design could not always be closely controlled, and investments tended to be capital intensive with a large import content. Financial Difficulties and Government Stabilization Measures 9. Nigeria's financial difficulties were further aggravated in 1977 when Nigerian oil, at the official price set in April 1977, faced keen competition in European and US markets from other, cheaper sources. Consequently, Nigerian sales, which began to decline in the latter half of 1977, plummeted in the early months of Federal budget deficits and the drawdown of foreign exchange reserves had been increasing over time, but the country's financial situation became critical in 1977/78. The fiscal year closed with a Federal Government overall budget deficit of about US$3 billion, representing about 10 percent of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves declined sharply and by the end of 1978 stood at US$2.2 billion, a level equivalent to only seven weeks of imports. The annual rate of inflation averaged 15 percent during these two years, rendering domestic production of tradeables progressively less competitive with foreign produced goods. 11. To overcome these problems, the Government took a number of steps designed to increase public resources, to curtail public expenditure and to curb imports. The Nigerian oil price was brought in line with the prices of its competitors in order to reverse the trend of declining oil exports. Non-oil revenues in 1978/79 were augmented through higher rates for income tax, excises, and import duties as well as through better enforcement of tax laws and procedures, while cutting Federal Government capital expenditures by 25 percent in nominal terms. 12. In order to strengthen the balance of payments position, import licensing and other restrictions were introduced to reduce particularly the nonessential consumer imports. The Government also succeeded in raising two large syndicated loans (amounting to US$1.75 billion) in the Euro-currency market. In addition, the Government during this period shifted the emphasis in its expenditures towards agriculture and introduced policies and programs to stimulate agricultural production.

10 On the whole, the above measures succeeded in bringing about a measure of domestic economic stability and stopping the drain on foreign exchange reserves. The oil output, following the price reduction, revived quickly and reached well over 2 mbd in the latter half of 1978 compared to an average of 1.5 mbd at the start of the year. The overall budget deficit for 1978/79 turned out to be only 60 percent of the previous year's level or about 5 percent of GDP. The import restrictions also appear to have been very effective in achieving their objective. Recent Oil Market Developments and Short-term Outlook 14. Nigeria's financial position has improved dramatically during 1979 following succesive increases in the world oil price. In line with other OPEC countries, Nigeria raised the price of its crude oil to $34 per barrel on February 1, 1980, up from $14.10 in December The high price coincided with a record output of 2.3 mbpd during Together, these two factors have changed the fiscal situation and added considerably to foreign exchange reserves. Export earnings in 1979 are estimated to have exceeded $18 billion, an increase of 65 percent over the previous year, and federal revenue for 1979/ 80, budgeted at N8.8 billion is likely to exceed Nll billion. Indications are that most of the additional revenue was used to increase capital expenditure, which may have risen by as much as 20 percent in real terms. This expansion is dictated primarily by the large number of unfinished investments. Economic Prospects and Policies 15. Unless there are major new oil discoveries--the chances of which are not held to be very good--nigeria's future oil output will not rise above current levels and, because of rapidly rising domestic consumption, the volume of oil exports is likely to decline over time. On the other hand, it is expected that the economy's demand for imports will continue to rise at a rapid pace in view of the size of the economy, the level of economic development, the pipeline of unfinished investments, and numerous newly identified investment projects. Over the next few years, Nigeria can expect to be in a comfortable financial position, and should be able to build up its foreign exchange reserves. Nevertheless, the underlying divergence in growth rates of imports and exports has serious implications for longer term economic prospects. Because of the economy's heavy reliance on oil-financed imports and investment, the outlook for the post-oil era depends on the success with which imports are replaced by domestic production, and non-oil exports are stimulated. Growth in the non-oil sector must become selfgenerating as oil resources are depleted. 16. The Government is at present preparing the Fourth National Development Plan, which is expected to come into effect in January Indications are that the next five years will be used to consolidate the nation's economic base and to lay the foundations for balanced long-term economic development. The new administration intends to put particular emphasis on improving the performance of agriculture in order to halt the steep rise in food imports and the decline in agricultural exports. It is also likely that the private sector will be encouraged to play a growing role and that foreign participation will also be encouraged.

11 Given the great improvement in Nigeria's financial prospects, and assuming an active private sector, domestic investment is expected to be maintained at a high level of around 28 percent of gross domestic income during Provided investments are well conceived and productive, this rate should permit the economy to grow at about 5 percent a year--more than 7 percent for non-oil GDP--with fair potential for employment generation. The economy-wide ICOR is expected to remain high owing to the weight of the large capital intensive projects in the ongoing public sector investment program. Imports are likely to grow faster than GDP, at least initially, if restrictions on imports of consumer goods are eased somewhat in view of the stronger foreign exchange position. 18. Now that financial constraints have been relaxed, there will no doubt be pressures on the government to reverse the policy of prudent budget and balance of payments management, instituted by its predecessor. These will be a major test and challenge for it to proceed cautiously in the face of these pressures in order to avoid repeating the experience of In addition to careful resource management, the performance of the economy will depend on how successful the Government is in directing investment priorities and policy emphasis towards directly productive sectors. A critical factor will be the competitiveness of domestic production relative to foreign goods. This will require that close attention be paid to the establishment of a favorable cost and price structure. External Borrowing and Creditworthiness 19. Until recently, Nigeria had only limited recourse to external borrowing. Total debt outstanding (including undisbursed) amounted to only US$1.3 billion at the end of Since then, it increased to US$3.2 billion, mainly as the result of two syndicated Euro-currency loans. During 1979, project-related commercial borrowing was in the order of US$2 billion. However, by the mid 1980s, when the debt service on currently contracted loans will peak, it will still amount to less than 3 percent of export earnings. The World Bank's share in total debt outstanding, though high at around 50 percent in 1977, has now dropped to below 15 percent as a result of the increase in commercial borrowing. Given the relatively low level of external indebtedness, the Government's generally cautious approach to external borrowing, and the favorable prospects for oil, the debt service is likely to remain below 10 percent over the next decade. Provided the Government is successful in implementing policies to enhance the productivity of investment and maintain balance between resource availability and use, Nigeria can be considered creditworthy for considerable Bank lending. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN NIGERIA 1/ 20. Bank and IDA lending to Nigeria as of April 30, 1980 amounted to US$1,268.0 million (net of cancellations). The amount of these loans and 1/ This section is substantially unchanged from the President's Report for an Oyo-North Agricultural Development Project in Oyo State, approved by the Board on April 29, 1980.

12 credits disbursed as of April 30, 1980 was US$673.2 million, leaving an undisbursed balance of US$594.8 million. Transport, power and water supply together account for about 47 percent of total commitments; agriculture for about 32 percent (most of which was committed in the last five fiscal years); and education, industry, urban and the post-war rehabilitation loan for the remaining 21 percent of total commitments. Gross disbursements in FY78 were about US$51 million, and US$60 million in FY79, but are expected to increase in the coming years in line with the expansion of Bank lending to Nigeria. There have been only two IDA credits to Nigeria, for US$35.3 million; both are fully disbursed. IFC has made four loans to borrowers totalling US$9.8 million, and five equity investments totalling US$3.1 million. Of these amounts, US$3.7 million have been repaid, cancelled, or sold. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits, and IFC investments, as well as notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 21. The main thrust of the Bank's activities in Nigeria in recent years has been to support agriculture and rural development, with particular emphasis on institution-building and transfer of technology. These objectives are in consonance with the Federal Government's priorities under the Third Plan, which places considerable emphasis on agriculture, and its policy to use the proceeds of Nigeria's oil revenues to increase the productive capacity of the economy, and thereby raise the standard of living of its population, particularly the rural poor. 22. In view of the interest which Nigeria has expressed in greater Bank involvement, an expanded Bank lending program has been initiated. In developing a broader approach to lending in Nigeria, a central objective is to encourage the shift (already discernable in the Federal Government's investment programming) away from the massive and diffused infrastructure investment, which characterized the two or three years following the oil boom of 1973/74, towards a more discriminating support for growth in the commodity producing sectors. A second objective of Bank lending is to raise the productivity of the lowest income groups and thereby diminish the incidence of absolute poverty in Nigeria. This objective has been actively pursued in recent agricultural projects which benefit some of the very lowest income groups. Agricultural lending of this kind would continue to figure prominently in the future lending program. A third objective of Bank lending is to support the Federal Government's efforts to diversify the economy, and reduce the excessive dependence upon petroleum as a source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenue. Agricultural lending, in particular, would include strengthening the potential for export crops such as cocoa. 23. The directly productive sectors constitute an appropriate focus for an expanded lending program. Projects in both agriculture and industry together should account for a large share of Bank lending in the coming two or three years. Effective support for the commodity producing sectors will also require strategic investment in production-related infrastructure, however. There would appear to be good opportunities for the Bank to make

13 - 7 - a significant contribution in power, water supply, and highway maintenance, including the currently proposed project. Further project identification work is under way in these sectors. Similarly, there is a strong case for continued lending for education. In this context, it is proposed that vocational, technical, and teacher training be given special emphasis. Finally, the Bank would support the Federal and state governments' efforts to spread the benefits of growth to the social sectors. It is envisaged that some of the pressing problems of rapid urbanization will continue to be addressed through a number of urban development projects, along the lines of the ongoing project in Bauchi State, focussed on the needs of the urban poor. A sectoral distribution of lending along these lines would be in keeping with the need to generate employment, and would also support the Federal Government's aim of mobilizing Nigeria's petroleum revenues to alleviate poverty and improve the overall distribution of income. PART III - THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 24. Two major events shaped the development of Nigeria's transport system in the 1970s: the end of the civil war in 1969 and the economic expansion following the increase in oil prices in 1973/74 (para. 4). During the period , transport development was focussed upon reconstruction of roads and bridges damaged during the civil war. By 1974, Nigeria was illequipped to meet the multifold growth in demand for transport services resulting from the country's economic expansion; there were monumental traffic jams in the country's major towns, the railway system had declined to a point that even for bulk commodities road transport had become the preferred mode, and port congestion had reached a level unequalled anywhere in the world. To alleviate these serious transport problems, the Third National Development Plan ( ) included a major transport development program, amounting to about one-fourth of total public investment (para. 5); of the proposed transport investment, roads accounted for 74 percent, railways for 10 percent, air transport for 8 percent, ports for 6 percent, and other elements of water transport for 2 percent. The program's heavy emphasis on roads reflected the dramatic increase in the road subsector's absolute and relative importance. In 1970, about 77 percent of goods was transported by road, 22 percent by rail, and 1 percent by water. By 1978, road transport accounted for more than 90 percent of total haulage to and from the ports. Transport System 25. Highways. The highway system comprises three categories of roads classified by function and jurisdictional responsibility: (i) federal roads linking the federal and state capitals and other large centers and providing links with neighboring countries; (ii) state roads linking large towns with federal roads and providing access from rural areas to the larger towns; and

14 - 8 - (iii) local government roads providing access to primarily rural areas. 26. Some 17,000 km of the federal trunk road system of 29,000 km are paved. Most of these roads have been improved to adequate geometric standards, but the pavements are generally weak and in need of strengthening to carry the heavy and increasing traffic. The remaining federal road network consists of gravel or earth roads. Without regular maintenance, they have seriously deteriorated, some to the extent that they are open only in the dry season. Most of the 26,000 km of state roads are unpaved. Again because of inadequate maintenance, many are in poor condition. The local government road system totals about 43,000 km, consisting mostly of earth tracks. Construction of federal and state roads is planned and supervised by the federal and state ministries of works, assisted by consultants and carried out by private contractors. Maintenance is undertaken by state ministries of works, acting as agents for the Federal Ministry of Works (FMW) on federal roads, but is poorly organized and executed, partly due to the critical shortage of trained manpower at all levels. The Federal Government has therefore decided to have the maintenance of its major roads carried out by contract. Very few of the local government councils (LGCs) have yet the capacity to build and maintain the roads under their jurisdiction. 27. The road system has had to cope with increasingly heavy traffic, both in volume and weight. The fleet is estimated to have increased at an average annual rate of 33 percent (39 percent for passenger cars and 26 percent for trucks) over the period , to about 550,000 vehicles (60 percent passenger cars and 40 percent commercial vehicles) in Traffic growth has ranged between an estimated 15 to 35 percent yearly over the same period. Traffic volumes on the federal road network vary widely, from over 30,000 vehicles per day in the Lagos-Ibadan corridor to under 500 vehicles per day on many of the trunk roads. The road system has also been adversely affected by heavy vehicles with axle loads up to twice the maximum authorized. Weighbridges are now being acquired and installed. As they come into use, highway authorities will have an important tool to enforce traffic regulations. The Government has agreed to prepare revised axle- and vehicle load regulations by December 31, 1982 (Section 4.02 of the Loan Agreement). 28. Road accidents present a serious problem; Nigeria's accident rate in relation to population and road use is abnormally high compared with other developing countries. Concern about road safety has increased in recent years, and some special measures have been introduced, including the establishment of highway patrols operated by the Nigeria Police, mobile traffic courts, and a Road Safety Corps in Lagos. 29. Railways. The rail system consists of about 3,500 km of single track. The system is being managed and operated by the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC). It reached its maximum performance in 1963/64 when it carried about 3 million tons of freight and 11 million passengers. The system suffered disruption at the time of the civil war, and has since then continued in a state of severe malfunction; by 1974/75, traffic had dropped to about 1 million tons of freight and 4 million passengers. In an effort to overhaul the system, the Government, in 1978, contracted Rail India Technical

15 - 9 - and Economic Services to set up an effective railway management system and to operate NRC for a three-year period. There has already been a measurable improvement in the availability of locomotives and rolling stock, and a consequent upturn in the number of passengers and volume of goods carried. 30. Waterways. After the completion of some major expansion schemes, the port system now provides a total of 59 berths, a quay length of about 12,000 meters, and a large number of anchorages. The system is being managed and operated by the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA). Cargo handled has almost tripled over the period , from about 6 million tons in 1971 to 16 million tons in Lagos accounts for about percent of total traffic, Port Harcourt for about 15 percent, and the other ports together for about 5-10 percent. Crude oil is handled at specialized tanker terminals. 31. Nigeria's navigable waterways consist of the Niger-Benue river system, the Cross River, and an extensive network of creeks along the coast. Traffic peaked in the early 1960s when over 300,000 tons of cargo were moved annually by commercially operated river fleets. However, traffic was seriously disrupted by the civil war, and had dropped to about 23,000 tons by Protracted drought in recent years and competition from road transport has limited the chances of reviving water transport, which now accounts for less than 1 percent of total transport. A master plan for river development and water management was completed in 1977, and dredging and hydrographic surveys necessary for the development of two river ports on the Niger have also been completed. 32. Airways. Nigeria has about 46 civil airports and strips open to public use. The system is being managed and operated by the Nigerian Airports Authority. Demand for passenger air travel multiplied during the period , but remained fairly constant for air freight. In 1978, domestic air transport accounted for 534 million passenger-km, 0.26 million ton-km of freight, and 0.35 million ton-km of mail. Transport is being handled by Nigeria Airways, which offers scheduled service between Lagos and 12 state capitals. It also provides international service. In view of continuing management problems, the Government, in 1979, contracted KLM to manage and operate Nigeria Airways for a two-year period. 33. Pipelines. Until 1970, the pipeline network operated by private oil companies consisted of about 500 km of crude oil and about 85 km of natural gas pipelines between producing areas, export terminals, and domestic refineries. The Government is now developing a 3,000 km pipeline network connecting the three national refineries with about 20 major regional storage and distribution centers. Transport Planning and Development 34. Under the Third National Development Plan, the transport sector objectives were to provide infrastructural support for the development of agriculture, commerce, and industry and to assist the economic and political integration of the country. The actual performance of the transport sector has fallen short of physical Plan targets, mainly because of

16 financial constraints after 1977 (para. 7) and, even more so, because of the severe shortage of qualified and experienced staff. Although the transport development program was conceived without taking adequate account of these constraints, its execution has reflected a pragmatic approach, with most of the expenditures, particularly for roads and ports, directed at eliminating major bottlenecks in the transport system. This has, however, encouraged an investment attitude oriented more towards rapid achievement of physical targets than to a careful economic assessment of resource use. This approach is understandable as a short-term expedient, but has led to spiralling construction costs and, in some instances, creation of excess capacity. As the more urgent projects aimed at alleviating obvious deficiencies are completed, and investment choices become more complex, detailed planning and coordination of transport investments will become increasingly important to achieve optimum use of available resources and balanced growth of the transport sector. Recently, the Federal Government has been paying more attention to these requirements. This trend is expected to continue under the forthcoming Fourth National Development Plan (para. 16), which is expected to emphasize consolidation, including the preservation and maintenance of the existing transport infrastructure. 35. The responsibility for transport planning and administration is quite fragmented at both federal and state levels, and the sector has been experiencing inter and intra modal coordination problems. The Federal Government is aware of the need to improve transport planning and coordination. In 1977, it established the National Transport Coordinating Commission as a functional unit of the Federal Ministry of Transport, with all relevant ministries and agencies as members. The Commission now has an authorized staff of 34 professionals. Its functions include coordinating transport sector investments, preparing and monitoring the transport investment program, formulating policies for the regulation, development, and operation of the transport industry, and improving the information base for transport planning and coordination. It is still in its formative stage, but is expected to play an increasingly important role. The Commission recently started preparations for a national transport survey, in which it will be assisted by local universities. Bank Role and Development Strategy 36. Between 1958 and 1973, the Bank approved eight loans and one credit totalling about US$202 million, and two technical assistance grants totalling US$365,000, for transport development in Nigeria. The first loan (Loan 193-UNI), in 1958, assisted NRC to improve and expand its railway system. The second and ninth loans (Loans 320 and 922-UNI), in 1962 and 1973, were made to NPA to improve and expand the port of Lagos. The closing date of the latter loan was extended to June 30, 1980 to allow NPA to submit final reimbursement requests. 37. The other five loans and one credit, totalling about US$106 million, assisted in constructing and reconstructing roads. In 1965, the Bank approved a credit (Credit 73-UNI) and two loans (Loans 426 and 427-UNI) for the Northern Roads, Apapa Road (Lagos), and Western Road Projects, respectively. Subsequently, it approved two rehabilitation loans--for Highway Rehabilitation (Loan 640-UNI)

17 in 1969 and for Transport Rehabilitation (Loan 694-UNI) in and a US$26.3 million loan for a Fifth Highway Project (Loan 838-UNI) in Only the last of these projects is still ongoing. It was the only project to include a sizeable technical assistance component aimed at institutional improvements. Its civil works components, comprising the construction and reconstruction of about 160 km of roads in the former Western State and reconstruction of eight damaged bridges, was completed in 1975, but a large part of the loan remained undisbursed, largely on account of administrative problems related to the subdivision of Western State into three successor states in About US$6.2 million was still undisbursed as at May 31, 1980, but a substantial amount is expected to be disbursed against expenditures for the training of maintenance technicians and preparatory work for the currently proposed project. Any amounts undisbursed as at the current closing date of the loan, March 31, 1981, are expected to be cancelled. 38. OED Project Performance Audit Reports have been prepared for the Apapa Road, Western Road, and Highway and Transport Rehabilitation projects (reports no. 1229, 1639, 1410, and 2092, respectively). The relevant recommendations have been taken into account in designing the proposed project, including detailed study of existing traffic on the project roads and factors likely to affect traffic growth and need for the training of road maintenance technicians. The Western Road audit report, dated June 23, 1977, also reflects upon the disagreement between FMW and the Bank in 1972/73 on appropriate standards of layout and phasing of the Lagos-Ibadan expressway. In the event, the higher standards of layout used by FMW served to accommodate the unexpected phenomenal growth of traffic since 1973/74 (para. 24). 39. The Federal Government approached the Bank for renewed assistance to the road sector in late-1977, and the relationship between FMW and the Bank has improved considerably over the past few years. The renewed dialogue has shown a serious interest on the part of FMW in reducing the cost of highway construction; a resumption of road planning activities; the initiation of a training program for road maintenance personnel; and a start in controlling vehicle axle loads. FMW officials have also started to accept economic criteria in project evaluation, in particular in ranking investment priorities and selecting engineering designs, which is also reflected in FMW's request to include in the proposed project a major study to build up a data base on which the further restoration of the federal trunk road system could be planned in the most economical way. These developments are auspicious beginnings in coping with the major problems constraining the orderly development of the highway sector in which much remains to be done: (i) the federal highway administratio needs to be restructured to provide for effective management of the federal road development program; (ii) the federal road network is still inadequate, both in coverage and in conditions; (iii) the state road network is virtually non-existent; (iv) the maintenance infrastructure to cope with an extended network carrying increasingly heavier traffic is embryonic; (v) there is an acute shortage of trained technical manpower; and (vi) the planning capacity is only a fraction of what is required to deal with the volume of work currently underway.

18 Although no road projects were financed after 1973, Bank cooperation with Nigeria in the road sector was maintained within the context of a number of agricultural development projects. These contained substantial programs for feeder road construction and rehabilitation. Construction has been undertaken by road units operated by separate agricultural project management units. This has been quite successful in the short run. Any longer term and comprehensive solution, however, will also have to provide for strengthening the capacity of government road agencies to plan, maintain, and operate their road transport system. Consequently, we intend to continue assisting feeder road construction and maintenance through our agricultural projects, but will also explore the possibility of developing comprehensive state-wide rural road projects. PART IV - THE PROJECT 41. The project was identified in 1977, and prepared by FMW in close cooperation with the Bank. It was appraised in November A Staff Appraisal Report, dated June 2, 1980 (2833-UNI), is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held at the Bank in April Supplementary data on the project is to be found in Annex III. Prolect Oblectives and Description 42. As pointed out before, the road sector, despite institutional weaknesses and staffing constraints, will continue to absorb a substantial proportion of government expenditures. The basic objective of Bank assistance to the sector is to induce greater efficiency of resource use. The project is a renewed effort in this direction, and is aimed at augmenting the road planning, design, construction, and maintenance capacity of the federal highway authorities. The road strengthening program, economic and engineering studies for a major road, and federal trunk road survey, as well as the institutional support and technical assistance included in the project, are all directed at assisting the Government to maximize the economic benefits from its investments in road infrastructure. The project is expected to play a catalytic role in introducing systematic road planning at the federal level, in reducing construction costs, in consolidating and building up highway maintenance capacity at both federal and state levels, and in relieving the heavy toll of road accidents. 43. The project would be implemented over the period , and would consist of:

19 Road Works (i) strengthening about 520 km of six federal trunk roads in Bauchi, Borno, Kwara, Ondo, and Oyo States; Studies (ii) carrying out economic and engineering studies for improving about 135 km of road between the port of Calabar and Ikom in Cross River State; (iii) carrying out economic and technical studies to establish improvement priorities for the further restoration of the federal trunk road network under the Fourth National Development Plan; Institutional Support and Technical Assistance (iv) providing consultancy services to train road maintenance technicians; (v) providing experts to fill critical positions in FMW in road planning, design, construction, and maintenance, and to establish a pavement evaluation unit; and Equipment (vi) providing road safety and pavement testing equipment. Proi ect Implementation 44. The project would be implemented by the Federal Highways Division of FMW over a period of about four years. Detailed engineering of the road works has been completed. Civil works would be undertaken by contractors supervised by FMW with assistance from consultants. The feasibility study of the Calabar-Ikom road and the federal trunk road survey would be carried out by consultants. FMW has agreed to appoint a Project Coordinator to facilitate implementation of the project (Section 3.05 of the Loan Agreement). 45. The Federal Highways Division is seriously short of trained and experienced professional and sub-professional staff. The proposed project would to some extent alleviate the staffing constraints, and the resulting neglect of planning and road maintenance in particular, through the provision of 13 internationally recruited experts (28 man-years) to fill critical line management positions in FMW. Seven of the experts would work in FMW's highway design, construction, and maintenance sections. Four experts would be engaged for highway planning and to assist in strengthening the existing traffic unit in FMW, and two experts would assist in setting up a pavement evaluation unit. The proposed project also includes the acquisition of pavement testing equipment for the pavement evaluation unit; the

20 establishment and staffing of the unit would be a condition of disbursement against a deflectograph for the unit (Section 3.07 and Schedule 1, para. 4 (iii) of the Loan Agreement). 46. The Federal Government has been contacting foreign governments and organizations to obtain the above experts. As yet, these contacts have failed to produce results, particularly because of the difficulty in providing attractive working and living conditions in Lagos. The Government has therefore agreed that, if it is not successful in its recruitment efforts, it will hire consultants by December 31, 1981 (Section 3.03 (a) of the Loan Agreement). The cost estimates for the project have been based on the latter assumption. 47. To assist the Government in its efforts to retain and recruit qualified and experienced staff and experts, the project would provide for the construction of 14 housing units, which are in very short supply in the Lagos area. The Government has agreed that experts to be recruited under the project would, at all times, have priority in the allocation of the units (Section 3.03 (c) of the Loan Agreement). 48. The Federal Government has the responsibility for federal road maintenance training. Its current training program is operated by consultants engaged under the Fifth Highway Project. A permanent center at Ugoneki in Bendel State and two partly mobile centers at Kaduna and Lagos provide for the training of about 200 foremen, mechanics, and plant operators each year. However, there is a large unfulfilled demand for training, and the proposed project would provide for the continuation and expansion of the program to an output of about 1,500 road maintenance technicians annually. Initially, the centers would continue to be managed and operated by consultants (about 65 man-years) on terms and conditions, and with terms of reference, acceptable to the Bank. FMW would designate in the Ministry a Chief Engineer in charge of planning and organization of training road maintenance technicians, and would also prepare a realistic plan and time schedule for the transfer of training responsibilities from the consultants to FMW (Section 3.04 of the Loan Agreement). 49. Concern about road safety has increased in recent years. Implementation of road safety measures lies with the individual states, and is being coordinated at the national level by the National Road Safety Commission. The Commission is chaired by the Federal Minister of Works. The states are represented by their commissioners of works, and there is also representation from the Police, the Army, the Red Cross, the Motor Transport Owners Union, and the unversities. Although the Commission has focussed on road safety propaganda activities, it is increasingly assisting in the provision of physical facilities and training schools for drivers to organizations involved in the country's road safety program, and requiring assistance. The proposed project would include the provision to the Commission of some ambulances, recovery vehicles, and equipment for gaining access to the injured and for moving damaged vehicles. The vehicles and equipment would be channeled to the Commission through FMW, which would appoint a Road Safety Liaison Officer responsible for the procurement, allocation and monitoring of the

21 use of the items provided under the project. The Liaison Officer's appointment would be a condition of disbursement for this component (Section 3.06 and Schedule 1, para 4 (ii) of the Loan Agreement). Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the allocation of the vehicles and equipment, and the results of their use, would be monitored closely. Project Cost and FinancinR 50. Total project costs are estimated at US$178.0 million (including taxes and duties of US$7.1 million), of which the foreign exchange component would amount to US$108.1 million or 61 percent. A breakdown of the cost by major categories is given in the Loan and Project Summary. About 7 percent of total costs are allocated to training and the hiring of experts. The cost of consultants, net of local taxes, is estimated at about US$9,700 per manmonth, and of internationally-recruited experts at about US$9,000. Allowance has been made for physical contingencies equal to 10 percent on civil works. Price contingencies for local costs allow for an annual rate of inflation of 15 percent throughout the project period. Price contingencies for foreign costs are estimated at 12 percent for 1980 and 10 percent for succeeding years. On this basis, total contingencies are estimated at 42 percent of base costs. 51. The proposed loan of US$108 million to the Federal Government would finance 63 percent of total project cost, net of taxes, and would be equivalent to the foreign exchange cost of the project. The Federal Government would finance the remaining project cost. Procurement 52. All contracts for road strengthening, valued at about US$142 million, would be awarded through international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines. It is expected that all contracts would be awarded to Nigerian-registered firms. Any foreign companies not incorporated in Nigeria would, if awarded such contracts, be exempted from legislation requiring incorporation as Nigerian companies. The construction of staff housing, totalling about US$4 million, would be arranged in two contracts, which would be let under local competitive bidding procedures in view of the relatively small size of the contracts, the competitiveness of local contractors, and the need to have the housing units built expeditiously. The contracts would be advertised separately in the local press, and bidding would be open to foreign firms registered in Nigeria. Contracts for equipment for road safety and pavement testing, amounting to more than US$100,000, and valued at about US$6 million, would be let through international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines. Domestically manufactured equipment would be allowed a 15 percent preference or the applicable import duty, whichever is lower, for purposes of bid evaluation. Contracts for equipment, amounting to less than US$100,000, and valued at about US$0.5 million, would be let on the basis of applicable local procedures. The services of the consultants and experts to be engaged under the project, valued at about US$25 million, would be obtained on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank.

22 Disbursement 53. The proposed loan would be disbursed during the period Disbursement would be made against 61 percent of total expenditures in the case of civil works and 70 percent in the case of consultancy services. For equipment, disbursement would be made against 100 percent of foreign exchange expenditures for directly imported items or 83 percent for locally procured items. On this basis, total disbursements are estimated at US$79.4 million against civil works, US$14.1 million against expert staff and consultants, and US$3.7 million against equipment. An additional provision of US$10.8 million has been made on an unallocated basis. Economic Justification 54. Road transport is the predominant mode for the movement of goods and passengers in Nigeria. Hence, the continued serviceability of the road network is a basic requirement for the realization of Nigeria's agricultural and industrial potential. 55. The proposed project would meet only a very small part of Nigeria's physical road subsector requirements, but would have an important institutional impact by alleviating some critical weaknesses in road planning, design, construction, and maintenance activities. The Calabar-Ikom study and the federal trunk road survey are expected to stimulate the use of careful economic and engineering studies in the context of a systematic approach to highway planning. The planning of the strengthening component has introduced techniques of optimizing strengthening in relation to expected traffic, providing the basis for planning a program of strengthening main roads in the most economical way. The selected project roads represent a spectrum of pavement types and of topographical and climatic characteristics so that the experience gained in design and construction will be of considerable value in refining techniques of road strengthening in Nigeria. Equally important will be the components aimed at relieving the acute shortage of trained and experienced staff. The provision of an expanded training program is expected to result in considerable improvements in road maintenance practices. Finally, the project would reduce the increasing toll of road accidents. 56. Only the road strengthening component, which accounts for 77 percent of project cost (excluding taxes and price contingencies), has quantifiable benefits, expressed in terms of savings in vehicle operating costs and reduction in maintenance expenditures. Using these data, the overall economic return for the road strengthening component is estimated at 30 percent. Sensitivity tests show that variations in project costs, benefits, life of the investment, and traffic growth that would result in an economic rate of return below 11 percent are well outside the range of what can be expected. Beneficiaries 57. The project would directly benefit (i) the Federal Government which could preserve its past investments and reduce its road maintenance expenditures; (ii) the road transport industry through reduced operating costs

23 of trucks and passenger vehicles; and (iii) the people of Chad who depend upon one of the roads for the uninterrupted supply of fuel and other essential goods. Since the transport industry in Nigeria, both for passengers and freight, is highly competitive, most of the vehicle operating cost savings are expected to be passed on to the final consumers of transport services in the form of lower passenger fares and freight rates. The primarily rural population within the influence areas of the project roads would be the principal beneficiaries from this reduction in rates. Prolect Risks 58. The road strengthening program has few technical risks since it is based on sound pavement engineering principles, and involves normal road construction practices. There is a possibility that the project may not achieve some of its institutional objectives. The existing organizational and management structure of the federal highway administration, combined with the difficult living and working conditions in Lagos, could militate against the effective use of the experts provided under the project to augment FMW's highway planning and engineering capabilities. However, the arrangements described in paragraphs 46 and 47 should assist in overcoming these problems. Taking into account the priority which the Federal Government is expected to assign in the forthcoming Fourth National Development Plan to consolidation and the maintenance of existing assets, there is every indication that further improvements in sector management can be expected under the proposed project. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Loan Agreement between the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Bank and the report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III, including the following conditions of disbursement of the loan: (a) Establishment and staffing of a Pavement Evaluation Unit (Schedule 1, para. 4 (iii) of the Loan Agreement) would be a condition of disbursement against a deflectograph for the unit; and (b) Designation of a Road Safety Liaison Officer (Schedule 1, para. 4 (ii) of the Loan Agreement) would be a condition of disbursement against equipment for road safety.

24 am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. HcNauara President Attachments June 5, 1980 Washington, D.C.

25 -19- ANNEX I Pa 5 e 1 of 5 TA Lt 3A NIUIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEELT REFERENCE GROUPS (9=U51 WyI ts LAND AEaS (THOUSAND SQ. Flt.) NIGCRIA - RSST Z5tU ) -ZRFE SOTAL 923.J SAME SAME qxt HtGhER ACICULTURAL DST RCENT GEOCRAPHIC LNICONE INCOM 1960 /b 1970 lb ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /4 GROUP /e CGP PER CAPITA (USS) &NCTRY CONSU! TION PER CAPITA (MILOGRAMS OF OOAL EQUIVALt14T) POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, M ID-YA (MILLIONS) URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) POPULATION PRJECSIONS POPULATION IN TEAR 2000 (CILLIONS) STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) YEAR STATIONATY POPULATION t5 REACKED 2135 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. Em PnR SQ. IM. AGRICULTURAL LAND POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 ns Y1S T5. AND ABOVt POPULATION GwC AE (PET) TOTAL URN CRUDE 811TH RATE (PEt THOSAND) CRUDE DEATH RATE (PZR THOUSAND) GROSS REPRODUCTION AT& FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS AMPJAL (TWUSANDS) USERS (PERCENT OF ARID WOMEN) FOOD AND NUITION INDEX OF FOOD PODUCTION PE CAPITA ( ) PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIUS (PERCENr OF PRQUIRtSN}rs2 91P0/ *A t MNS (5WIMS PEL& DAY) SO03.O OF WHICH AN71 L AND PULSE 9.7r CHILD (ACES 1-4) NDSTALITY RATE HEALTH LIFE EXPtcTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) INFANT NORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) / ACCESS TO SAlE WATER (PEPCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL URBAN RURAL ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL UN RuRAL POPULATION PtR PHYSICIAN POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON /1f POPULATION PtR ROSPITAL 81D TOTAL /h URAN IUIRAL ADKISSIONS PER HOSPrTAL RED HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL URBAN RURAL AV LACE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL URBAN vimal ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL VIL"AN RURAL

26 -20- A TA8L 3A Page 2 of 5 NIGERIA - SOCIAL INUICATORS DATA SHEET NIGERIA REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AJUGAGES N05T REZCENT TMT SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER MoST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC I!lCOME INCOKIE 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP ld GROUP /a SIG ~~~~~~- EDUCATION ADJSYg1D ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL MALE nemale SECO01DARY: TOTAL a MALE femle VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) /i PUru-TlACHEZ RATIO PRLIMARY SECONDARY AWILT LITERACY RATE (PZlCENT) CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER rthousand POPULATION RADIO RECEIVER5 PIE THOUSAND POPULATION TV RECZIVERS PER THOUSASD POPULATION NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERL UnIEuEST') CIRCULATION PER TIHOUSAND POPULATION C*INEM ANUAL ASTENDANCE PU CAPITA LABOR FORCE TTALtLA80R FORCE (THOUSANDS) /f FEMALe (PERCENT) AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) INDUSTIY (PEPCE.'4) PARTICIPATION RATC (PERCENT) TOTAL MALE PEMALE ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.4/f INCOME DISTRI5UTION PEJCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RCCEIVED BY HICFST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSE8OLDS RICHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WDWESZ 20 PERCENT OP HOUSEHOLDS LDWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URSAN RURAL ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOt( LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN URAL ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW A8SOLTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN RURAL Not :vailable Not appli able. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are pop..dtion-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the Indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countrles adong the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 nd 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and /c Africa South of Sahara; /d Lower Middle Income (S per capita, 1976); /I Intermediate Riddle Incoe ($ per capita, 1976); /f 1963; L& ; /h Including ex-north Cameroons under Britisb administration; /i certain fields of study previously classified under other second level education of a vocational of technical nature are now reported under gensral education; / average. Most Recent Estimate of CNP per capita is for August. 1979

27 -21- ANNEX I rzmrni1n Of awza MIC?BS Page 3 of S lot.: Alhuhthe lot. art dear. fro. t.c.0e generally judged the scat eutheitetie and reliable, it ehoud ela be awted that they sa not be internatlll cepral beacene, Of the, lack of etendar-dleed definitione, end concepts need by d-ifferent countries in co1lectieg the data. The dat.arer, nonethelese, Useful to describe orders of esgpituda, riull-te trande, sad chatecterlse certain ajor differencee between countries. The djutednounav,:ne for each indicator are pap.alation-weghttd geosetric sans, secluding the extres "aluea of the indicator end the wetpouae coutryin achgrop. 0,.to ea of data, grup &avrages of aln indicators for Capital SuIpl. Oil oporters and of indicators of coot.. to Water and Noete Dispoal, ousin, tas Ditribution and Pverty fr. other country groups are populatioo-wightsd gestric manss cithoot oc-ui"on. ofthetrese rc -oad tie ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Most country. Sic.h Populated oe e foatissnteidotr deed. on avilsbility of data ad to not -nf acic ut e be -- riard to eltion ave.ge of one indoator to. anter. Thea. aveae aentl eful. as aecrooletions if 'eppected' -aloe oboe ceamdte auso Mediator at a tine asee the coutry, end ref-erc grouope. laidagla (thousand sqka.) Acceea ntoj Daod 1ert Cort of eeci.tca" -mtel aria, an rura 'Sf'Total surface areacopinglda a ed en etra Dter ofpol ttl ro,sdrrl erdb ort iposa. a &=r~u±torsl - NOat recent astmeate of agicultural area use d tmprarily pretgsof their reepetive populatioas. Exoreta dispoesalsap inclde or Peesenently for cempe, Pastures, market and kitchen garden. or to the. tnislo ad4 disposal., with or oithoot troatent, of hoaen secret. lie fllow, end waste-waeur by twatr-icrne systtem or the use of pit pr iies wan tiier, GNP OF FI CAPp -apit (US$ estiate, - t curent otat pices,inetallations. - Pper caiaetnsftoretsce rcs OnaR tcneuecan-populatioe dliod*d by oueher of practicing piysicians, calculated by seme conversion aetbod as World Desk Atlas ( basis); ImflTA IM.la shahl at onivrelty level 1960, 1970, ed 1977 dete.. ~lbl. uind:?ron~ - Population, divided hy fluter of prect.ng ealo thecead el9tic PIp Anea Qcnaion of commrcll enewu nur7iissiii'ibii Practioal narsese *ad assistant -toa.. natual gs ed byro-,asmea ad gee osltewedsia e - fttotl. lt,a-d ral- Population (totel. urban, tborml of.1actrici... a qiv.1-t p-.. pit.;theirrespe1i960n.r9of bopitel beds sa-loblo i issdofoteu..eipr eia,90 public and private general and epealalbod hoetpital -ad rehbahilaitot centers. 1970, ad 1916 data. te~~~~~~~~~nd9pitea are esteblishemota permenently Atf fed by at least cee.kyiin TICS S~~~~~~~~~~~~etabliseents providing priecipally oustodial care are oct icc1uded. Rural - one) - ~At of July I; 1960, 1970, ad boepitele, howvr iscide health and medil centers noct pereantnly ataffd 1977' "ta. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~by a flwaicien (hu a esialol uscietat, enree, tideife, etc.) okici offere Urbs ca.ton ( resat of total). Hatio of urban in total population; in-patient acoadatin and provide a lisited rang of ediall& facilities. differetu findt area 1so NW affect ocaesahility, of data Admisions DerIHSlospital - Total. numbes of adaisio.a to or di-ebtrva froe go. c..nt.; 1960, 1970, ad 1977 dana. 'hiil diidtdbyth'=nsor of be.". FM' ferreut popalatio Projections ar based on l l gi a93t on by age ad se and their mortality ad fertility 1Wedoofluhsdiea prhueod-ttl,ra,ad rurlirates. tprojection Paraeeters f or sortality rates comprise Of thes nehl oseao"agopo niiul h ahara lh ivn quarters end levels, "aseng Alife epeotaney at birth inareing tith Cosatry-. stheir adn selal. A boarder or lodger say or say Mct be included to the pe capita toes level, and femlt life aspeotency stabilliwig at househld for Statistical porpese. 7n.5 yes,.. The parameters for fertility rate els have thre levels Averg mache of aeen e o oa.aia drrl-aeaenno aedtdecline, in fertility co-ding i to osm level and pesto pereos, per MnMe in Urba, a ruaqccpe wteeticoa delinge, fadly olaneing Perforeance. lash cesuntry is then assigned one of tbte, reepactivedy, Dweallga sexclude non-peruanent structures ad unocoiptd Parte. sine cambinattons- of mortality and fertility trends for Projection lem Cfetity(aenofd lins.ttl.ch.adral o- Purposes. statim tio-i a ttcaypopalation there, is an growth rationl total, urban, welig and rural m dwellings oetiiy reepetively. alvn uresa penage o.f iisethbfithrate is, apoal to -the death rate, ad also the Age stracotrs raveins cootatnt. thie is antieved only after fertility rates WADb decline to tierepleeseaut leve of -nto at reprdotciton rate, chee.aio eah generatio fwasn r.place itself suatly. Mhe atationary pope- Prsyscoltoa al d tl. ;.- Io total, oj.c and oeale -1rvlistice sloe eas estimated n the basia of the projected charecteriatica etosl goa h Prar leela porentegee of reepective primary of the Ppoplatiow in the year 2000, and tie rate of declne of fertility sohool-ege Popul1ations; onoenlyicue cildrec a~ged 6-11 Years bto rate to replacect leel. adjusted for diffrenot lengtbe of pritecy ed-otti- for voocr 1eht Ler statloosry Populatioe is reached - The yeer hba stationary populaice oaivereal oducatione enroliment tap nosed 100 Percent oio- e- popilo sioc has been reached, are tlow or above the offioial sobol age. Fbpati- Dens~ity Seconqdary school - total.el a el Onputed aa above;.owo-ay Pr e.pi eropatcpesqrekilceter ii rducation (iso bactree) of eoa -aquir- at lat fo IV-: easoapproved r pr,sytarcio t t!i ~~~~~~~~~~~ generl ~~~~~~~provides vectional, or toacher training itaruti.e. for pupils Pee. h. agricultural lad - Coeputed as above for agricultural lad usually. of 312 to 17 peare ofm ag; cerresp-ondnc courses are geesrally Pouaio g truotu- (nercaot) - Cbildrt (0-lb years), eurking-age oainloelen nreto eade)-vctos ettiosoio (15- yers adretire (65 MYears end ove) as percentages of tid-year tcic,inuralorthrprograms ~ohioprt dpntiora popultion;1960,1970, ad 1977 data. departalts Of aenondary infftitutioes. Poulaton eceh Rts(peroent) - total. Annea acoeth rates of total aid- Pupl-eahe raielrsy,a eedr -. Total student:scerollied to yearpoplatonsforl9~-o n 190-7Wpisya scndr lvlsdvie otrs -7 of teacier Iathe corre- Poenlat1t-;Garowthr Rats 4 ~ree-t - urban - Anneal growth rates of urban spending level.. popolations, , and for 1950 tz9 r-75.m ) - iterets adut. (ebl to reed ad vwite, as typr 9519 t5gperfthousand) - onwal Live births Per thousand of mid- 'pofng totiiilzatpopulatice aged 15 pears andovr 7pqdg Death d)pqng Annual idatks per thousand of eld.year CUIPC "oplllalt " Ylw 19,77 data". Pasa En..e Cars pemr thounad pocolati.e) - Peseonger oars ocepries woot car Gross ReyrOdution Rats. A-rage oshor of daugbtere a -owan cdli hear aeating less tie 0 eight Persons; -ui-"e ambulances, beers.e and Calltary me her or"irepoutive perid if ohe voperisecs Preseot Me-veils opsoiflo fertilit rotes; usually five-year eore ending In 1960, RaI1Rcivr -(a tbnosani copulatio) - All types of receivers for radio 1970, ad bed ttogsral pblcpor thousand of population; c-ohut oinlicee..d Pail, Planing -Ac-eptor Annealthuseds) - AnneL eomher of receivers in countries end Ie rears ohee, regietration of raie note eo acceptors of birth-conrol. vte er upc..... of national feasy effect; data for recent yearso. ac.t be voepurblo scoco wo coot s Planning Peogram. abolished licensing. feby lnls ees(cret feridaeec -Prenaeof serried ireivr(petouad toeslaoe) - rceivrs- for broadoaet to goe..ral '= Iof "bild-beartgae1.byusohenbitcotldvespblcprhosnpouainooldsniesd ivre-ivern io vocotos. to all enrred -ne in e age grop. end, in yetrs eta registratito oftv sets wan1 offeot. 970` 74id, FOOD Ad ypni es,e Circulation, (Pe bua clto)-oosthavrgciual of - "itlly generl interest news.paper, defled as. a Poiodial1 pubitotio- Innenof FO-''~tlo rod pe Capia (19*71.13) -Inde of Per capta deetad prisily to recrding genra -es Tto is conidered to s "daily' anneal poductionof nil fnd oosdtis.fprodno".-t secludes seed ad if it apper at 1eet fou tins. a aeth. feed ad is ce elsodar pear bitoi. Coamdities cover prissy gcdodsc.ns sna At= itedcenraita per Year, - Eased on the number of tickets e.g.surae intead of eager) thick rs,0 ediblead costain outrienta soddrn "heya,moligahsin odiei le.adek (.g.=cofe anditea are e-cloded). Aggregate pro&oetbon of each country an1ita.t ~--Atl 4 bl is based en national aveag prdueipit..ghs Pee calt.awwoly of caoia(sonto.s onputed fron energy squiv tlr ofnet fo upisaalbei onr per o.pita. "Tilior Forct tbonends) - foonseicaly active persons, includinhg urnd 1 per dwy. Availablesppliescoprs doeetic Production, larri lens fo,nee ad nemployed buot secluding housewive, students, oto. Defitti.o. osports, ad changes in stock. let supplies enoodo eaniml feed,, seeds, in venous, coutries are not oseaerable. quantities oosd in food proce..silg, ad losses vin distribotios. Require-!1-Atp9 Pl lbr f-or as percentage of tota1labtor frco. asents wer estisted by TAO based on physiolegloal a.eds far ocral c.;.1pat) - labor Core in facming, fores try, hunting ad ativity ad health considering envirtgosetel. teepertore, body eights, "fi7shing asprn eaof ttotl labor tons. age ad sen distribotions Of Population, ad allowing 10 percet for Industry tjj -laorforce in aining, Constructine, manufaciuring and sneat heouethoin leve. sdtrioity enter and gas as percetage of total Labor forcs. Per cmita ucola of potein(see erdi) - Pretio content of per ParticipationRate (Percent) - total. ella f ale - Participatios o capita wet supply of. fod-prdy. tsppl of feed is defined as activity rtso ar couted as tota,et, onad fae.ls Labor fon as Pe--.abov. Requirese-te for all countries established by UMA previde for ceagsof total, ale ad fonals population of all agee repectively; minisa alloanc of 60 gese of tota Protein Pr day end 20 grasse of 196g 1970, ad 1975 lota. These are tiws partiompetios raiese reflecting oean d, Pulse prtein, o ehlo 10 Lgrese should be endmal Protein. age-sen structure of the Population, ad long tis trend. A fow eanites These stenad r bow than thesa of 75 gees of total Protein and aefee nationad _ese.. 27 gras of animal Protinso -enaeage for the -id, proposed by PAO tic j_ - Rati of population aloe 15 and 65 and vee to in the Third.Idol fend Surey. te IW 5- age group of 15-i4 years. Per oaotia ortte coppiy foon onel. end oui.e - P'rotein supply of food Jorired aniale endeats Crow pulses innd geses oofre dat,m7. Chili,ages 1-4) Mortality tabs per thousad -oo datoprhusd Pceaec ritel s(bth to cask ad kind) - Received by riciest ao age group I-b prove, to ohildren ic thia age grop; for Most devl- 5 eee,rnot5 aecnt, Poorest 50Pere-e, snd pocree L0 pocea oping conatrire. Onto derived lo_ life taclos. of households. aa&lth P TAPOET SItOP Uf.i inectn atbrt yer) - iv-regc nobhr of y-r of life alse ibteoluto1 overt taslvlsicycpia ra n ua reann tbrth;19, 190,ad Ž977. data. nbaoepvrytos leve to tha nalee eowomta cia -nat hort -ity tate 'or thousand) - Asnoal deaths of intants under on otriticna...iy adequate lie t vin.e..osstial. not-food reqi-antorevct year of age perh tho d Live birth., affordable. Acce..o to Saet dater ( fcpltio-ttl ran drrl- Etisted FAe Relative Povert -aos, level 71 per -anta.t - 'ubaadcol Roekr ofpoope 'ttal,urba, ad rura ciiresabeces to Rural relative p-ovrty -aoes level I s ac-third ofaerg pe apt nafo cater aucoly (includes treated ourface eatse or entreated boo Per-nl tacos of the v- y-. Urban.ove le derived fro t -Lrt level -u 0oeteantod eater suc as that 70c, protected berehles, opigeith edjusisent for higher cost Of livin a 'ari area. and caitasy wells vs poerentges of their respetive posolatle. 12 EstIate PoUclation Ssd0.w Abeolote oet nalvlpeco ra n anubnarea a pubilc focatain or etmndpeet hosted ac wr than 200 eret o pouain r drori can are 'ehaclte puc etre -f a house ay be ooneiderd - being within -easseahiace, of that boass. in rural areas; reesamble accede Old imply that the Musoifs or eases-r of the household de ean have to speed a diepropor- emaic and denial Dta Dilsilou tiana.part of the dap in fetching the SlRy's eate siege. S.onnied Analysin dpoatos eet

28 ANNEX I Page 4 of 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1977 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWEH (%. constant prices) US$ Mln. % ONP at Market Prices * Gross Domestic Investment Gross Natiorial Saving Current Account Balance Eiports of Goods, NFS Imports of Goods, NFS OUlTUl, ADBOR FORCS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1977 Value Added Labor Force- V. A. Per Worker US$Mln. % Hn. -% USA Agriculture :5 * Industry *Service Unallocated Total/Average o% GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government Central Oovernment Of of Mln.) T Min.) % of GDP 192V79/ 1917/8 1976/7-1977/8 1977/8 1977/8 1976/7-77/8 Current Receipts Current Expenditure Current Surplus il 16-5 Capital Expenditures External Assistance (net) M YNE!, CREDIT and PRICES TMalion N outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money Bank credit to Public Sector Bank Credit to Private Sector (Parcentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP tl.a. General Price Index ( ) 2/ , Annual percentage changes ins Genaral Price Index Bank credit to Public Sector n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.a. Bank credit to Private Sector NOTE: All conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 1/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocated" consists mainly or unemployed workers seeking their first job. 2/ Index of Urban Consumer Prices up to National Price Index from Not applicable

29 -23- ANNEX I Page 5 of 5 TRAI PAM:TS AND CAPITAL FWW; BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE MEPORTS (AVERAGE ) US $ Mln 7 (Millions US $) Exports of Goods, NFS 10,549 12,974 10,979 Crude Oil 10,170 92L5 Imports of Goods, NFS 10,517 13,271 14,242 Cocoa Products Resource Gap (deficit- -) ,263 Palm Products Interest Payments (net) Tin All Other Comodities Workers' Remittances Other Factor Payments (net) Net Transfers Balance on Current Account ,763 Total 10, Direct Foreign Investment EXTERNAL DEBT. DECEMBER Net MLT Borrowing Disbursements ,434 US $ Mln Amortization Subtotal ,412 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 2,180 Capital Grants - - Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Other Capital (net) Total outstanding & Disbursed Other items n.e.i Increase in Reserves (+) ,346 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1978# Gross Reserves (end year) 5,517 4,617 Net Reserves (end year) 5,433 4,590 2,244 Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 0.8 Fuel and Related Materials Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Total outstanding & Disbursed * Imports of which: Petroleam Exports 9,468 11,553 9,488 of which: Petroleum 9,468 11,553 9,488 IBRD/IDA LENDING. (Dec. 31, 1978) (Million US $): RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD IDA Outstanding & Disbursed : N US$l.62 Undisbursed : N US$1.60 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 3T : = US$ : N1.00 = US$1.58 1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services. * Less than 1% Not Available September, 1979

30 -24- AN'NF II Page 1 of 6 TIME STATUS OF BANK CROlP? OPERATIONS IN NICERIA 4. STATEtEfT OF LANlK GROUP OPERATIONS IN NtCGRtA (as of April 30. lyeio) Loan or _VS million Credit moseu Clams cenceilationi) Iumber Year Borrover Purpose lank IDA Undisbursed Fourteen loans and two credits fully disbursed Nigeria Education Nligeria loads SPA Port Nigeria Education Nigeria Cocoa Dev Sigeria Livestock Nigeria Agric. Dev. Funtua Nig;ria Agric. Dev. Cusau Nigeria Rice Dev Nigeria Agric. Dev. Gombe U Vigeria M.W. State CUI Palm U Nigeria!.C. State Cil Pala Nigeria W. State Oil Palm Nigeria Agric. Dev. Lafia Nigeria Agric. Dev. Ayangba Nigeria Nuc.Est. Smailholder Oil N5DB Industrial Dev Nigeria Agric. Dev. Bida Sigeria Agiic. Div. Ilorin * Nigeria Forestry * Nigeria W ater Supply - Kaduna * Nigeria Agric. 4 Rural Mgmt. Inst C NEPA Power - Lagos * Nigeria Lrban Dev. - Bauchi * Nigeria Agric. Dev. - Oyo-North Total 1, Of which bas been repaid Total attanding 1, Atmot sold 16.8 Of which haa bee repaid *Total mo hold by Bank 6 IDA Total undiabursed S. STATEXEN OF IFC INVESTMNS1iS (as of April ) Tiscal Type of Amount In US$ Million Year Businesa Loan Equity Total 1964, 1967, Arewa Textiles Ltd. Textile Mfg Nigeria Industri-l Dv. rin. Co Development Bank Ltd Funcua Cottonseed Veg. Oil Crushing Ltd. Crushing 1973 Nigerian Aluminuim Alumirum Ertrusion Ltd. Processing 1974 Lafiagi Sugar Sugar 0.1 O. Estates 1980 N-.. Textiles Total Cross Cc nmitnents Less carnellatincs Lees sold or reraid Total Co=ntments now he ld by I FC UnrAtsburm"d * Not yet effe-ttve h Prlor to.x0- "%. rut,! adjut?tn1'nts-

31 -25- ANNEX II Page 2 of 6 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/ Loan No. 838-UNI Fifth Highway Prolect: US$26.3 million Loan of June 26, 1972; Effective Date: February 20, 1973: Closing Date: March 31, 1981 The construction components of the project have been completed. The closing date of the loan was recently extended in order to complete disbursements for the training of maintenance technicians and preparatory work for the Sixth Highway Project. Loan No. 922-UNI Second Lagos Port Project: US$55.0 million Loan of August 1, 1973: Effective Date: October 30, 1973: Closing Date: June Civil works are complete. Container cranes are now installed and will be in operation soon. Total project costs are much in excess of the appraisal estimates due to labor awards and cost overruns. A revision of the tariff structure in 1977 considerably improved the financial situation of the Nigerian Ports Authority. Loan No. 929-UNI Third Education Project: US$54.0 million Loan of August ; Effective Date: January 14, 1975t Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Since appraisal, project costs have increased fourfold and the scope of the project is under review. Because of weak management and a need to redesign the project, completion could be delayed by a year or more. Project administration was complicated by the partition of many states in Discussions have been held between the Bank and the Government with a view to strengthening the project administration and making adequate provisions for timely counterpart funding. A revision of the project scope and extension of the closing date was approved by the Board last year. 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the understanding that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.

32 -26- ANNEX II Page 3 of 6 Loan No UNI Second Cocoa Pro1ect: US$20.0 million Loan of October 11, 1974: Effective Date: October 15, 1975: Closing Date: September 30, 1981 The project's planting targets have been fully achieved by all four participating states. Loan recovery performance has however surfaced as a major problem. A tight "action program" has been initiated, and it is expected that updating and reconciliation of farmer loan records will be completed soon. Local funding for Ondo and Bendel State CDU/TCU is still inadequate. A third cocoa project is being prepared. Loan No UNI Livestock Development Project: US$21.0 million Loan of March 20, 1975: Effective Date: July 19, 1976: Closing Date: July 1, 1981 Project implementation has been slow due to the creation of new states and operational difficulties. Serious problems of counterpart funding from the Federal Government were encountered at first. Following the award of a management contract for this project, and a reorganization of the project unit, project implementation has been improved. Supporting services are better organized, and credit is now being channeled through NACB. Loan No UNI Funtua Agricultural Development Project: US$29.0 million Loan of March 20, 1974; Effective Date: January 5, 1976; Closing Date: July 1, 1982 Project implementation is progressing satisfactorily with excellent farmer response and the full support of both Federal and State Governments. Demand for inputs is consistently above appraisal estimates. The federally controlled Agricultural Projects Monitoring and Evaluation and Planning Unit financed under this loan is fully operational. Project costs are in line with appraisal estimates and disbursement is proceeding satisfactorily. An expanded second stage project to cover the remainder of Kaduna State has been appraised. Loan No UNI Gusau Agricultural Development Prolect: US$19.0 million Loan of April 4, 1975; Effective Date: January 5, 1976; Closing Date: July 1, 1982 Despite last year's inadequate state funding, the project is progressing satisfactorily with support from both Federal and State Governments. Farmer response is good and appraisal objectives are being met and in some cases exceeded. A second phase project to cover the remainder of Sokoto State is being prepared.

33 -27- ANNEX II Page 4 of 6 Loan No UNI Rice Prolect: US$17.5 million Loan of April 25, 1974: Effective Date: January 10, 1976: Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Project implementation made a slow start due to deficiencies in counterpart funding and staffing limitations. The Bank has withdrawn from the project component located in Cross River State because of acute problems of cost overruns and inadequate physical progress. The remaining funds set aside for Cross River State will be reallocated to project components in Anambra and Imo States, where physical project progress and counterpart funding are more satisfactory, and development is accelerating. Loan No UNI Gombe Agricultural Development Prolect: US$21.0 million Loan of September 29, 1975; Effective Date: December 29, 1976: Closing Date: July 1, 1982 The project is being implemented satisfactorily with full support from both Federal and State Governments. Farmer response is most favorable. The demand for inputs and the production of maize is exceeding appraisal estimates. A second-stage project to cover the remainder of Bauchi State has been appraised. Loan No UNI Mid-Western (Bendel) State Oil Palm Project: US$29.5 million Loan of December 31, 1975; Effective Date: October 17, 1977: Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Loan effectiveness was substantially delayed because of problems relating to staff recruitment, land acquisition, and completion of the Federal and State Legal Opinions and State Loan Agreement. Appraisal targets for the nucleus estate and smallholder components have not been met due to delays in land acquisition as well as continuing financial and managerial problems. The monitoring component has not been fully effective because of staffing difficulties. Specific remedial actions are being taken by Government and, provided that these are completed, the project is expected to achieve its objectives. Cost overruns are, however, likely to be substantial. Loan No UNI East Central (Imo) State Oil Palm Project: US$19.0 million Loan of February 12, 1976; Effective Date: April ; Closing Date: December Project implementation was initially delayed due to the creation of new states and problems with staffing. Project management and staffing are now satisfactory, but appraisal planting targets have not been met and the construction of palm oil mills has been delayed. Substantial cost overruns are expected. Loan No UNI Western (Ondo) State Oil Palm Prolect: US$17.0 million Loan of September 22, 1976: Effective Date: February 13, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 The smallholder component continues to face financial difficulties, and final targets may not be achieved. For the nucleus estate component,

34 -28- ANNEX II Page 5 of 6 land acquisition, management, and funding problems have delayed progress. Plantings are in poor condition and processing facilities are inadequate. Actions to resolve these problems are being implemented and progress will be evaluated shortly. High cost overruns are expected due to implementation delays and inflation rates higher than anticipated at appraisal. Loan No UNI Lafia Agricultural Development Prolect: US$27.0 million Loan of June 28, 1977; Effective Date: March 3, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Although local counterpart funding is now adequate, the project is still experiencing some problems of a technical nature, particularly concerning extension and training. However, overall project progress is satisfactory. Loan No UNI Ayangba Agricultural Development Project: US$35.0 million Loan of June 28, 1977; Effective Date: March 3, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The project continues to improve with satisfactory support from the Federal and State Governments. Farmer participation and physical project progress is good. Disbursements are also proceeding satisfactorily. Loan No UNI Rivers State Nucleus Estate/Smallholder Oil Palm Project: US$30.0 million Loan of July 24, 1978; Effective Date: July 10, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Loan effectiveness was delayed because of problems regarding completion of the State Loan Agreement, a Management Agreement, and Federal and State Legal Opinions. Physical progress is satisfactory, and earlier funding problems have been overcome. The smallholder component faces some managerial difficulties. Loan No UNI Nigerian Industrial Development Bank, Ltd.: US$60 million Loan of June 15, 1978; Effective Date: October 24, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project is proceeding satisfactorily. A number of sub-loans have been processed and approved. Loan No UNI Bida Agricultural Development Project: US$23 million Loan of September 17, 1979; Effective Date: April 25, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project is progressing satisfactorily in its initial stages. Loan No UNI Ilorin Agricultural Development Project: US$27 million Loan of September 17, 1979; Effective Date: April 25, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project is progressing satisfactorily in its initial stages.

35 -29- ANNEX II Page 6 of 6 Loan No UNI Forestry Plantation Project: US$31 million Loan of October 29, 1979: not yet effective; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 Most conditions of effectiveness have been met. Project progress is satisfactory. Loan No UNI Kaduna Water Supply Project: US$92 million Loan of July 16, 1979; not yet effective: Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Most conditions of effectiveness have been met. Project implementation is being impaired by management problems. Loan No UNI Agricultural and Rural Management Training Institute Project: US$9 million Loan of July 16, 1979; not yet effective; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 A management contract has been negotiated but not yet signed. Legislation to establish the Institute is now in draft form. Loan No UNI Lagos Power Distribution Project: US$100 million Loan of February 19, 1980; not yet effective; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Loan effectiveness awaits submission of legal opinion from Government. Project progress is satisfactory. Loan No UNI Urban Development Project: US$17.8 million Loan of February 19, 1980; not yet effective; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Most conditions of effectiveness have been met and the project is progressing satisfactorily in its initial stages. Loan No UNI Oyo-North Agricultural Development Project: US$28.0 million Loan; not yet signed; Closing Date: March 31, 1985

36 -30- ANNEX III Page 1 of 2 SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Sixth Highway Project Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Time taken by the country to prepare the project: 18 months. (b) The agency which has prepared the project: Federal Ministry of Works with assistance from consultants and Bank staff. (c) Date of first presentation to the Bank: December (d) Date of the first Bank mission to consider the project: March (e) Date of departure of the Appraisal Mission: November 5, (f) Date of completion of negotiations: April 25, (g) Planned date of effectiveness: October 15, Section II: Special Bank Implementation Actions None. Section III: Special Conditions (a) Designating Project Coordinator within the Federal Ministry of Works (para. 44); (b) Recruiting experts to fill critical positions in the Federal Ministry of Works and giving priority in allocation of the housing units provided under the project for their use (paras 45-47); (c) Establishing pavement evaluation unit within the Federal Ministry of Works (Condition of Disbursement against a deflectograph for the unit; (para. 45); (d) Signing of contract with consultants on the training of road maintenance technicians (para. 48); (e) Developing capacity within FMW to take over and continue training function, and establishing position of Chief Engineer within the Federal Ministry of Works in charge of planning and organizing the training of road maintenance technicians (para. 48); and

37 -31- ANNEX III Page 2 of 2 (f) Designating Road Safety Liaison Officer within the Federal Ministry of Works (Condition of Disbursement against equipment for road safety; para. 49).

38

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40

41 IBRD FOBIlOOY UAI 19:0 E A_--_ A 12 ( / A~~~~~~~~~~DUGURI 2 \ o21.L9 0S ,P%~. ~g 6 0,) t i CAMEROON SOaU ~~~) w.,aa. 21 s Ti.r / ; R B E X_0 IX N NA CHnADN AiEO~ > Q42:4\,- F U R *1 NETWORK I a11 ca,aoact.dsw^t22~ j -:. t C ori*mu P p _. tre ra A ~~~~~~~~ 1 j~ ~ AI' = - W.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ATZANrIC J~~~~V I I