MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2013

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1 MONETARY AND FINANCIAL TRENDS IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2013 Introduction This note is to analyze the main financial and monetary trends in the first nine months of this year, with a particular focus on the third quarter of 2013, which is marked by financial volatility affecting particularly emerging economies. The national economy, immune to the volatility of capital flows which severely affects some emerging economies, is influenced by other risks weighing on short-term prospects of the global economy, in particular through price of oil. 1. Evolution of the balance of payments The evolution of the external current balance during the first three quarters of the current year confirms the vulnerability of the balance of external payments to any poor performance of hydrocarbon exports, especially as the upward trend of imports of goods persists in This occurs after the external shock of large scale of 2009 followed by an enhanced viability of the balance of external payments in 2011 and 2012, driven by the strengthening of oil prices whose annual average level amounted respectively to $ / barrel and $ / barrel. This average price increased from $ 62.3 / barrel in 2009 to $ / barrel in The monthly average price of oil fluctuated between $ and $ / barrel in the first nine months of 2013, or an average of $ versus $ / barrel for the same period of last year. Price improvement in the third quarter of 2013 makes the average price over the period under review better than that of the first semester ($ / barrel). Indeed, after an increase in the first quarter of 2013 ($ / barrel) compared to the last quarter of 2012 ($ / barrel), the quarterly average price of crude oil fell in the second quarter of 2013 to $ / barrel, or a decrease of 7.21% in a situation of sharp decline in quantities of hydrocarbons exported ( %) in the first half of This rate of contraction that increased in the second quarter ( %) amounted to 8.97% for the first nine months of the current year.

2 Accordingly, based on preliminary data of the balance of external payments, hydrocarbon exports in value contracted by 12.25% during the period under review compared to the same period of 2012, corresponding to a lesser under performance relative to that on semester basis (13.95%), that is to say the first semester of 2013 compared to the same semester of These exports totaled $ billion for the first nine months of 2013, declining by % compared to their level in the same period of 2012 ($ billion). Quarterly profile of hydrocarbon exports indicates a contraction in the second quarter of 2013 followed by stabilization in the third quarter of 2013 at $ billion. This has adversely affected trade balance, especially in the second quarter, while imports of goods continued their upward trend in context of structural weakness of non-hydrocarbon exports ($ billion for the first nine months of 2013 versus $ billion for the same period of 2012). Imports of FOB goods rose by 10.25% in the period under review compared to the first nine months of 2012, reaching $ billion versus $ billion. Quarterly data indicate an upward trend until the second quarter of 2013 while third quarter recorded a decline in FOB imports to $ billion ($ billion in the second quarter) due to the reduction of imports of oil, food, semi finished products and industrial equipment. The analysis of the structure of imports shows that imports of "industrial equipments" that rank first with a share of 36.1% recorded an increase of about 20 % compared to the first nine months of Moreover, despite their relative decrease in the third quarter of 2013, this group contributed % to the increase of total imports during the period under review. Regarding the contribution of "semi-finished products" (estimated at 10.12% and ranking second), it reached 19.90% of the total imports through September Imports under this group increased 7% during the first nine months of 2013 compared to the same period of last year. Furthermore, with a share of 17.65%, imports of " food consumer goods "which rank third rose by 11.78% and contribute up to % of the increase of total imports. In terms of imports of non-food consumer goods", they rank fourth with a share of 14.52% and contribute 16.27% to the increase of total imports which is equivalent to the growth rate (16.98 %) during the period under review compared to the same period of Furthermore, imports under Energy & Lubricants group rank fifth in the structure of total imports (7.80%), increasing by % to $ 3.24 billion through September 2013 ($ 2.63 billion through September 2012). For the record, imports of petroleum oils and bituminous products increased from

3 $ million at the end of 2010 to $ 1.57 billion at the end of 2011, reaching $ 2.26 billion in the first nine months of This is a new phenomenon that characterizes the last three years and is correlated to the strong growth of imports of vehicles (touristic, commercial and other vehicles). After a surplus of $ 4.02 billion in the first quarter of a better performance than that registered in the third and fourth quarters of 2012-, trade balance deteriorated in the second quarter of 2013 ($ 0.20 billion ) due mainly to contraction of hydrocarbon exports.thereafter, the decrease in imports of goods in the third quarter is the source of reconstitution of trade surplus ($ 2.52 billion ) in the third quarter of the current year, reflecting a positive trend supported by the stabilization in hydrocarbon exports. In total, during the first nine months of 2013, the trade surplus is estimated at $ 6.73 billion versus $ billion for the same period of last year, on the basis of preliminary data of balance of payments relating to the period under review. This reflects the vulnerability of trade balance to exports of hydrocarbons that experience a contraction in volume in a situation of persistent strong rise of imports of goods. As for imports of services excluding factors income, they increased slightly in the period under review compared to the first nine months of last year, after stabilization in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period of last year, mainly as a result of the increase in shipping, shipping insurance and other services. These imports of services are offset by a contraction in imports of services under building and public works group. In 2013, imports of services on a quarterly basis have stabilized at $ 2.8 billion while exports of services increased in the second quarter and stabilize in the third. This positive trend has contributed to the slight decrease in the deficit of the non-income factors services item which posted a deficit of $ 4.93 billion through September 2013 (-$ 5.17 billion through September 2012). As a result of widening of the deficit of factors income and decrease in net transfers combined with the contraction in trade surplus, the current account of the external balance of payments recorded a deficit of $ 0.94 billion during the first nine months of This poor performance contrasts with the surplus of $ billion carried out under the same period of 2012, although the deficit concerned only the second quarter of Given the stabilization of oil prices, this calls out in terms of the ability to export hydrocarbons by volume, as the efforts to promote non-hydrocarbon exports do not seem to fully produce

4 expected effects, achievements in terms of import substitution being well below expectations. Consequently, and despite a relative stabilization in net foreign direct investment and improvement of the capital account whose deficit narrowed to $ 0.75 billion during the first nine months of the current year, versus $ 1.46 billion for the same period of 2012, the overall balance of the balance of external payments recorded a deficit of $ 1.70 billion during the period under review as it emerges from the compilation of the provisional data relating thereto. Despite this deficit, the outstanding amount of foreign exchange reserves (gold not included) is estimated at $ billion at the end of September 2013 versus $ billion at the end of June 2013 and $ billion at the end of December Furthermore, if growth of reserves slowed in the first three quarters of the current year, the net external financial position of Algeria remains robust, experiencing historically low level of external debt ($ billion at the end of September 2013 versus $ billion at the end of December 2012). Indeed, the level of accumulated reserves exceeds the usual adequacy thresholds for emerging countries, thus allowing Algeria to cope with potential external shocks and to preserve external stability. Bank of Algeria pursues in 2013 the prudent management of official foreign reserves by putting forward more rigorous monitoring and risk management in particular through appropriate precautionary measures to preserve the capital of investments from any loss while achieving an acceptable level of performance, given the persistence of low global interest rates environment. At the end of September 2013, the US 10 year government bonds posted a yield of 2.61% versus 1.78% for German government bonds of the same maturity. In addition, the prudent management by Bank of Algeria of official foreign exchange reserves contributed to external financial stability in the medium term in context of conduct of policy of effective exchange rate of the dinar close to its fundamental equilibrium level. To this end, the intervention of Bank of Algeria on the interbank foreign exchange market helped to mitigate the impact on the national economy of increased volatility in international foreign exchange markets as from May 2013, while resulting in risks to financial stability in a number of emerging countries including depreciation of their currencies.

5 It is in such a context of volatility of exchange rates of major currencies as of May 2013 that the average price of dinar versus the U.S. dollar experienced a depreciation of 2.66 % for the first nine months compared to the same period of 2012, rising from in 2012 to in 2013, after an appreciation in At the same time, the average exchange rate of dinar versus euro for the first nine months of 2013 depreciated by 2.09 % compared to the same period of 2012, rising from in 2012 to in This is a low depreciation, both versus dollar and euro relative to currencies of certain emerging countries. For example, the average price of the dollar in the first nine months of 2013 recorded appreciations of 10.38% versus the Brazilian real, 10.38% and 8.09 % versus Indian rupee. As for the euro, its average price in the first nine months of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012 appreciated by % versus Brazilian real, % versus Indian rupee and 4.68 % versus Russian ruble. In total, due to the depletion of the inflation differential between Algeria and its fifteen (15) main trading partners to a level of 3.35% in September 2013 versus 6.23% in December 2012 and due to the increase in relative prices, the real effective exchange rate of the dinar depreciated only by 1.72% on average in the first three quarters of 2013 compared to the same period of Despite the situation of deficit of the balance of payments that marked the period under review, the real effective exchange rate of the dinar remains appreciated by about 5% through September 2013 compared to its equilibrium level determined according to the fundamentals. 2. Monetary developments The decelerating pace of monetary expansion that characterized 2012 with an increase of the monetary aggregate M2 of only 10.92% versus 19.91% for 2011 is confirmed in the first three quarters of the current year where the rate of growth of M2 is estimated at only 6.78% with a contraction in the second quarter versus 10.23% for the nine first months of The deceleration in the pace of monetary expansion also relates to the monetary aggregate M2 (excluding deposits of the hydrocarbon sector) or 9.01% through September 2013 versus 14.83% through September 2012 (16.57% in 2012). Money supply as defined by M2 reached 11, billion dinars at the end of September 2013 versus 10, billion dinars at the end of September 2012 (11, billion dinars at the end of 2012 and 11, billion dinars at the end of June 2013)

6 due to the significant growth of credits to the economy in a context of moderate growth in net external assets in the aggregate monetary position. Despite the deceleration - mainly in the first half- of growth of foreign assets to 5.13% through September versus 7.57% for the same period last year, net foreign assets that reached 15, billion dinars at the end of September 2013 continued to play a role in the process of money creation, especially as this aggregate holds a very significant place in the consolidated monetary position and has greatly fueled excess liquidity on the money market between 2004 and However, sustained accumulation of resources by Treasury in the Revenue Regulation Fund is a form of sterilization that helps to contain to some extent this excess liquidity. Moreover, after a near stabilization of the net financial position of the State in the monetary situation between late 2011 and late March 2013, the second quarter of 2013 recorded an improvement of about 8 % for the first half of 2013 versus a depletion of almost 2 % in This improvement in net creditor financial position of the State was impeded in the third quarter so that in September 2013 it stood at 1.04 % versus 0.20% through September This trend combined with the deceleration of the growth rate of deposits in CCP (postal current accounts) and Treasury to 9.03% through September 2013, with a stabilization in the third quarter versus % through September of last year ( % in 2012). Thus, the financial position of the State as a net creditor vis-à-vis the banking system remains significant despite the relevant increase in the credit to economy aggregate. However, outstanding amount of financial savings of Treasury, namely savings on its accounts held with Bank Algeria, rose slightly to 5, billion dinars at the end of September 2013 versus 5, billion dinars at the end of December 2012 (5, billion dinars at the end of September 2012) in context of relative stabilization of the global outstanding amount of Treasury securities issued by tender on the money market. This outstanding amount increased from billion dinars at the end of December 2012 to billion dinars at the end of March 2013, closing at billion dinars at the end of September Consequently, the high growth rate of credits to the economy (22.56% through September 2013) emerges as the main determinant of the monetary expansion in the first nine months of 2013, or nearly double the rate of increase recorded through September 2012 (12.30%). The dynamism of bank credits to the

7 economy is more significant in real terms in 2013, supported by facilitation and support measures taken by government earlier this year. At the end of September 2013, bank credits to the economy totaled 5, billion dinars versus 4, billion dinars at the end of September 2012 (4, billion dinars at the end of December 2012 and 4, billion dinars at the end of June 2013). Indeed, the dynamism of bank credits was more sustained in the second and third quarters of the current year. At the end of the period under review, credits to private companies reached 2, billion dinars (2, billion dinars at the end of June 2013 versus 1, billion dinars at the end of 2012), so that credits to private sector -including households which amount to 2, billion dinars- equal the outstanding amount of credits to the public sector (2, billion dinars). In addition, the period under review was marked by an increase of both credits to the private sector (18 %) and public sector, though at a higher rate in respect to credit to the public sector (28.6%) which absorbed more funding in the medium and long term. Along with the very strong growth of credits to the economy in the first nine months of 2013, analysis of the structure by maturity of credits to the economy confirms the increase in the relative share of medium and long term credits to % at the end of September 2013 (71.12 % at the end of June 2013, % at the end of 2012 and % at the end of 2011). The dynamism of bank credits to the economy, judging by medium and long terms credits that increased 28 % through September 2013 compared to December 2012, reflects improvement of the structure and financing conditions (lengthening of maturity and decreasing cost), correspondingly to facilitation measures taken earlier this year that made more effective the apparatus of support implemented by the State through the development of healthy credits to SME s to stimulate economic growth. Credits to households also increased in the context of financial inclusion, mainly in respect of mortgage loans (8.10% through September 2013) which should be driven by the development of the real estate market. After this broad review of counterparties of money supply M2 and particularly the increased role of the credit aggregate in 2013, the analysis of the structure of M2 provides information on financial savings behavior of economic agents and the impact on policy tools of banks. Excluding deposits of hydrocarbons that have undergone a strong contraction in the second quarter of 2013 due to the

8 influence of the impact on balance of external payments, growth rate of M2 stood at 9.01 % at the end of September 2013 (14.83% at the end of September 2012). Accordingly, the ratio of credit to the economy / M2 (excluding deposits of hydrocarbons) increased to % at the end of September 2013 after a stabilization at 41 % in 2012 compared to the end of This clearly indicates a pulse in banking intermediation in terms of the allocation of credits experiencing even greater potentials as regards the use of banking services by private enterprises and households, while mobilization of resources relies less on those of the hydrocarbon sector. Deposits in dinars collected by banks rose by 5.69% during the period under review versus 7.49% on Year on Year basis through September This growth being hampered by the contraction in the second quarter mainly affecting sight deposits of hydrocarbon sector. Indeed, after a low growth in the first quarter (4.9%), deposits of hydrocarbon sector contracted sharply in the second quarter, registering a decline of 29.5% through September 2013 compared to December 2012 (-29.6% through September 2012). This reveals the further depletion of the capacity for self financing of the hydrocarbon sector facing the sector investment program. Moreover, imports of oil products contribute to this trend. As for sight and term deposits of public companies in dinars (excluding hydrocarbon sector), they increased by 13.9% in the first nine months of 2013, mainly in the first quarter. Unlike the situation of hydrocarbons in the public sector, the flow of growth contributed to the development of policy tools of banks in that period. In same period, sight and term deposits in dinars of private companies and households increased by 5.5% after a significant expansion recorded in 2012 (14.7%). Breakdown of these deposits shows that sight and term deposits in dinars of private companies with banks rose 7.4%, a pace well below that of growth of bank credits to such economic agents (18%) which have allocated a portion of these funds to their import transactions. Regarding sight and term deposits in dinars of household with banks, their relative share of 35.11% increased by 4.6% during the period under review versus 13.8% in 2012 in relation with the income effect of households. These deposits in CCP and Treasury that represent the largest category of deposits continued to increase during the first nine months of 2013 (9%) but experiencing slower pace compared to the same period of last year (29.5%) and stabilization

9 in the third quarter of Moreover, deposits in foreign currencies of households increased by 13.8% (7.2% in 2012), reaching 66.7% of the outstanding amount of deposits in foreign currencies raised by banks at the end of September As a result of changes in foreign currency deposits and term deposits in dinars, the quasi money aggregate rose at a higher rate (8.8%) than that of money supply M2 (6.8%), a rate very close to that of M2 (excluding deposits of hydrocarbons) (9%). This rate, achieved in the first nine months of the current year, represents a net deceleration in the expansion of quasi money compared to the same period of last year (17.3%) in relation with the small increase in term deposits in situation of excess of investments over savings. Furthermore, the resource base of bank is less vulnerable to external shock that would affect the hydrocarbon sector. Finally, the stabilization of the fiduciary money relatively to the monetary aggregate M2 at end of September 2013 compared to end of December 2012 indicates a steady demand of financial savings and of cash from households in context of decelerating inflation of consumer prices. Monetary deceleration concerned also the fiduciary circulation which increased only by 1.18 % in the first half of 2013 (1.45 % in the first quarter) to achieve a rate of 6.7 % for the period under review versus 14.7 % in the first nine months of Indeed, after the outflows of fiduciary money through the network of Algérie Poste in January and February 2013 and a more moderate increase in March and April 2013, fiduciary money recorded a contraction in the months of May and June To the contrary, the third quarter was rather marked by an expansion in the demand for fiduciary money which is significantly lower than the issuing capacity by Bank of Algeria. Given the high level of inflation recorded during the past year, Bank of Algeria introduced as from mid-january 2013 a new instrument of monetary policy, namely the six month liquidity withdrawal at a remuneration rate of 1.50%. This strengthening of instruments of monetary policy follows measures taken in April 2012 increase in the amount of liquidity withdrawal from 250 billion dinars to 1,350 billion dinars- and measures taken in May the increase of two percentage points from 9% to 11% of the rate of constitution of minimum mandatory reserves-. This rate was raised again to 12% in May 2013 to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy in the effective absorption of

10 excess liquidity in the money market. Thus, extending the maturity of liquidity withdrawal instrument aims at absorbing more stable liquidity of banks and thereby a better management of excess liquidity in the money market. Bank liquidity that remained stable in the first quarter contracted in the second quarter to 2, billion dinars versus 2, billion dinars at the end of March 2013 and 2, billion dinars at the end of December It slightly improved in the third quarter of 2013 amounting to 2, billion dinars at the end of September Excess liquidity was effectively absorbed by instruments of liquidity withdrawal (1,350 billion dinars) in situation of reduced use by bank of the overnight deposit facility ( billion dinars at the end of September 2013 versus billion dinars at the end of December 2012). Moreover and in the context of mandatory reserve requirement, banks have increased their assets in accounts held with Bank of Algeria. Furthermore, if the interbank money market remained largely inactive in the first quarter of 2013 given the dissemination of excess liquidity, interbank loans and borrowings resumed as from May 2013 with interest rates on the interbank market close to 2%. Finally, the preservation of macroeconomic stability remains a key objective. Monetary policy supported by the flexible conduct of policy of exchange rate plays an active role, especially as Bank of Algeria has consolidated its instruments of absorption of excess liquidity at the beginning of the year in order to contain the inflationary phenomenon. If the role of monetary policy in the fight against inflation is provided by Bank Algeria, the endogenous nature of the inflationary phenomenon in Algeria since 2009 calls for other economic policy measures, particularly of structural nature. 3. Trend of decelerating inflation After a long period of moderate inflation that followed structural adjustment, inflationary phenomenon emerged with particular acuteness in 2012, following the shock of domestic prices of some basic commodities in early 2011 and the acceleration of inflation in the second half of In 2012, the inflation phenomenon was essentially of endogenous nature, anchored on a very limited number of fresh products whose prices have increased steeply in the first quarter of Indeed, as of January 2012, the overall index of consumer prices in the city of Algiers posted a sharp and sudden increase (2.31%) equivalent to 5.5

11 times the monthly average increase of this index for the year The increase in the first quarter of 2012 of prices of a very limited number of fresh products explains 96 % of inflation in annual average of this category of products for the whole year 2012 (21.37%). Moreover, inflation of consumer prices (excluding food products) was only 6.09% in 2012, a year where inflation rate reached a historical "peak" of 8.89 %. After 19 months of uninterrupted uptrend (from July 2011 to January 2013), inflation on annual average initiated a downward movement in February Indeed, the annual average inflation rate stood at 8.07% in March 2013 and 6.59 % in June 2013 versus respectively 8.89%, 8.91% and 8.56 % through December 2012, January and February Deceleration of inflation rate continued in the third quarter of 2013, pushing back the annual average rate to 5.32% through September 2013 or to a level below that of September 2012 (7.95%). In Year on Year inflation through September 2013, the increase is milder (2.18 %) while the average index for the first nine months of 2013 increased by 4.15% compared to the average index for the same period of In addition, after the first nine months of 2013, the general level of prices in the capital city is virtually unchanged at its value of January 2013 while weakening by 0.9 point at the national level. However, despite the obvious phenomenon of deflation over the first nine months of 2013, the rise in food prices remains high even if it is on a decreasing trend. On annual average through September 2013, the inflation of the "Food" group (6.69%), "clothing" group (7.37%) and that of "Transportation and communication" group (5.76%) are the sole inflation rates exceeding the overall inflation (5.32%). This confirms the high incidence of food prices, a situation similar to that of the previous year where the annual average increase through September 2012 was 9.9%. In addition, their contribution in September 2013 (56.86%), up 1.7 percentage point in one year far exceeds their weighting (43.1%) in the index of consumer prices. As regards the impact of imported inflation, it should be noted that domestic prices of imported agricultural products do not adequately reflect the downward trend in their world prices, especially as they benefit implicit subsidies such as exemptions from taxes and customs duties. Levels of domestic prices are almost always much higher than world prices, while they should evolve

12 along with the rise or fall of prices. Moreover, the trend in major trading partners of Algeria is towards disinflation, the Year on Year annual rate being less than two percent through June 2013 or 1.8% for the United States and 1.6% for the euro area. Within the food group, fresh agricultural products have undergone double digit inflation but declining from 15.9% in September 2012 to 10.8% in September These products that represent only 16.9% of the index have generated more than half of inflation of September 2013 (45.2%) versus 41.5% a year earlier, while the increase in prices of industrial food products was relatively moderate and was estimated at only 2.9% in September 2013 versus 4.9% a year earlier. In addition, the contribution of inflation of industrial food products declined by 2 points to 13.4% for a weighting of 26.2%. Judging by the contribution of inflation of industrial food products in relation with the sharp rise in prices of the food group, sub-group - meat and trips- that represent 5% of the index generates 54.1% of inflation of this group in September In addition, this contribution increased by 16.7 percentage points since September Inflation of prices of manufactured goods is relatively moderate with a rate of 3.26% through September 2013 declining by 3.8 percentage points while their contribution declined 10.5 point to 22.3%. In addition, inflation of prices of services accelerated from 4.7% in September 2012 to 6% in September 2013 with a contribution to inflation of 19.2%, up 8.8 points since September In terms of structural or core inflation, the trend of disinflation that began in August 2012 (5.93%) continued steadily, reaching 3.9% in September Forecasts made in September indicate that inflation in 2013 on annual average is within the medium term objective adopted by the Council of Money and Credit and is expected to be at 4% at least. Monetary policy played an active role in context of monetary deceleration while the moderating disbursements under the State budget and continued regulatory actions and markets organization contributing to this disinflation.

13 Accordingly, the trend of disinflation confirmed in the first nine months of 2013 both on annual average and on Year on Year average. However, the still high level of prices calls for maintaining the effort to control liquidity and expansion of demand and ensure increased supply. In addition, it is expected that a sustained action of mobilization of financial savings of households by banks can contribute to the fight against the inflationary phenomenon and further consolidate macroeconomic stability. Gains in terms of external financial stability including strength of the position of foreign exchange reserves, the real effective exchange rate close to equilibrium and the monetary stability militate for the progressive realization of the real potential of economic growth starting from 2014 when productive investment is expected to make an effective contribution. Also, the required development of productive investment rests on the capacity of national savings which remain significant, judging by financial savings accumulated over the last twelve years. This relates to the setting up of a new financing scheme that durably discharges any recourse to foreign indebtedness. Finally, the dynamics of credits to the economy in 2013 falls within the framework of the development of sound credit to the economy aimed at boosting domestic production and shows that bank credit channel remains potentially significant in terms of financing both productive investment of SME s and promotional housing (mortgages). In support of the completion of this important objective of allocation of resources for inclusive growth, gradual absorption of excess liquidity in the money market must be accompanied by sustained efforts by commercial banks relating to mobilization of term financial savings of companies and households, driven by an adequate remuneration in real terms.