Verification of Savings Project Update to CCC

Transcription

1 Verification of Savings Project Update to CCC April 21, 2007

2 Project Team David Jump, QuEST, project lead Ken Gillespie, PG&E Hannah Friedman, PECI, CCC Technical Manager Kirstin Pinit, PECI, CCC Project Administrator Tracy Phillips, AEC, In-depth Reviewer TBD, In-depth Reviewer TBD, In-depth Reviewer

3 Technical Advisory Group Narendra (Amar) Amarnani, LA County John Cullum, SoCal Gas Jim Flanagan, representing PG&E Dakers Gowans, Left Fork Energy Satinder Gulati, California State University Ed Jerome, Cogent Energy Spencer Lipp, Lockheed Martin Business Process Solutions Steven Long, SCE Ann McCormick, Newcomb Anderson McCormick Tom Reichert, Engineered Mechanical Services, Inc. Howard Sacks, DGS Kevin Warren, Warren Energy Engineering, LLC Lia Webster, PECI

4 Technical Advisory Group Purpose: Provide guidance on verifying RCx energy savings while meeting stakeholder needs

5 Verification of Savings Project Objectives Address industry s needs to demonstrate savings are real and long-lasting Investigate existing practices Promote best practices in savings verification Provide guidance on appropriate and practical methods to assure RCx delivers savings

6 Phase I Stakeholder Objectives Report available: Definition of Objectives Report Review Existing Methods Report available: Existing Methods Report Establish Categorization Framework Establish Evaluation Framework Report coming soon: Evaluation Framework

7 Methods Used to Verify Savings Benchmarking Deemed RCx Measure Savings (not in use) Calculation & Visual Inspection Calculation & Performance Verification Ex-Post Savings Estimation IPMVP Option C Utility Bill Analysis IPMVP Option C Interval Data Analysis IPMVP Option B Retrofit Isolation IPMVP Option D Calibrated Simulation List may not be comprehensive

8 Graphical Concept 700 Benchmarking is performed annually based whole-building level data much data required post-retrofit Option B/C Verification is based on the difference between the (projected) baseline energy use and the measured post-installation energy use kw Calculation & Performance Verification is based on data collected in the baseline period with operational data collected in the post-installation period & used to Calculation & Visual Inspection true-up is based savings estimates on data collected in the baseline period and claimed if visual inspections Ex-Post Savings show Estimates are based on data measures installed collected in the post-installation period and any available data from the baseline period Baseline Period Post-Installation Period 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 kwactual kwbaseline

9 Projecting the Baseline Need to know what baseline energy would have been if improvements were not made Requires model of baseline energy use Predictive Energy Models Developed from engineering principles and calibrated with building data (e.g. DOE-2) Inverse Energy Models Empirical model built from energy and indep. variables (e.g. OAT) with statistical methods (e.g. regression) ASHRAE RP 1050

10 Confusion in the Market: M&V Definitions Measurement and Verification (M&V) Defined by IPMVP & ASHRAE Based on before and after energy measurements All other methods referred to as verification methods

11 Confusion in the Market: Verification Concepts Operational Verification After RCx measures installed, data collected to verify that operations are improved Energy Savings Verification Methodologies used to check the energy savings estimates M&V methods Require both

12 Confusion in the Market: Overview of M&V for RCx Formal Savings Verification Methods: Have formal guidelines and requirements IPMVP ASHRAE 14 Evaluation Impact Protocols Have specific documentation requirements Methods include (from matrix) Ex-Post Savings Estimation, IPMVP Options C, B, D Informal Savings Verification Methods No industry-wide guidelines RCx Programs have created guidelines with documentation requirements Methods include: Benchmarking, Deemed Savings, Calculation & Visual Inspection/Performance Verification

13 Why Option B/C Guideline? Addresses Stakeholders Needs: Increases confidence in savings (based on beforeafter measurements) Reduces savings risk (risk evaluators will downgrade savings) Provides formal guideline for RCx providers to follow Available by mid-2008 Other reasons Provides feedback to operators on energy performance In-line with evaluators own M&V requirements Identified as a best EE program practice

14 RCx Program Overlap w/ Verification Planning phase Develop M&V plan Investigation phase Baseline development/documentation Collect operational data Equipment inventory Model energy use Implementation phase Verify improved operation Verify Savings (per M&V or other method) Hand-off Phase Periodic re-measurement & analysis (persistence tracking)

15 Phase II Scope of Work Revisions to Phase I reports based on feedback from CCC, TAG, Stakeholders Development of Option B/C Guideline Research Policy Roadmap Dissemination Plan

16 Option B/C Guideline Outline (see handout) Book Concept Outline Introduction Factors to consider in selecting a method Methods DRAFT Option B/C Guideline Outline Proposed Title: Using Inverse Energy Modeling Techniques to Verify Savings in RCx Projects: IPMVP Options B and C Purpose General Description Overlap with RCx projects M&V Plan Requirements Specifying the data Development of energy baseline Post-Installation activities Calculating and reporting savings Additional Content Examples of key content Example M&V Plans and savings reports Etc.

17 Project Timeline Task/Deliverable Completion Date 1. Revise Phase 1 Deliverables 3/28/08 2. Option B/C M&V - RCx Guideline a. Develop preliminary outline 3/21/08 b. Hold TAG conference call 3/28/08 c. First draft - Purpose and Overview sections 4/4/08 d. First draft - assessing RCx project & resources for 4/18/08 application of Option B/C approach & selecting Option B or C approach e. First draft - completion of Option B/C RCx Guideline 5/23/08 f. Hold TAG meeting to discuss first draft/obtain comments 5/30/08 from TAG g. Final Option B/C RCx Guideline 6/13/08 3. Research Policy Roadmap 7/3/08 4. Dissemination Plan a. Provide IPMVP and various ASHRAE committee members with draft Option B/C RCx guideline b. Develop presentation and training materials for RCx providers and RCx program managers c. Present two training sessions - one in Southern California, one in Northern California 5/30/08 7/25/08 TBD

18 Thank You!