Brexit and the EU a lose-lose effect? Politics and economics
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1 «High Level Research» Italy-UK Bilateral Meeting Anacapri Ex Osservatorio Svedese 4-5 October 2017 Brexit and the EU a lose-lose effect? Politics and economics Alberto Quadrio -Curzio Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei
2 Brexit Timeline:unknown ) June 23 rd, 2016: Brexit referendum leave Wins March 30 th, 2017: UK notifies European Council with Article 50 June 19 th, 2017: negotiations begin October-December 2017: divorce principles agreed?? October 2018: deadline for the agreement ratification process?? March-June 2019: possible extension of Article 50 deadline Post Bexit general arrangements with the EU (2025) The swiss scenario 10 Y a for complete agreement
3 Apparently UK is the main looser for economic quantities it is true for political and economic qualities is more complicated Italy is not convinced that hard brexit is usefull to EU and EMU A different approach to avoid hard brexit : Not a general agreement but sectoral and functional agreements. Defence Finance Research
4 Quantities Population (ml) 2016 Euro area (19 countries) minus 19% 340.Ml European Union (28 countries) minus 13% 511 Ml United Kingdom 65 Ml GDP at Market Prices(tril ) Euro area (19 countries) minus 19% 10.7 tr European Union (28 countries) minus 13 % 14.8 tr United Kingdom 1.9 tr International Trade (EX+IM) (trl)$ Euro area (19 countries) minus 12% 6.3 tr European Union (28 countries) minus 10% 8.3 tr 800 mil United Kingdom Source: Eurostat
5 -3,3-2,5-1,3-1,1-0,9-0,8 EFFECTS OF BREXIT ON REAL GDP : UK AND EU United Kingdom European Union excluding the UK Source: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016; graph based on OECD data
6 Effects of Brexit on Real GDP : UK and EU -1,3%: real UK GDP contraction in ,3%: real UK GDP contraction in ,5%: real UK GDP contraction in ,1%: real EU GDP contraction in 2018 excluding the UK -0,9%: real EU GDP contraction in 2020 excluding the UK -0,8%: real EU GDP contraction in 2023 excluding the UK
7 Source: UK National Office of Statistics; Thomson Reuters Datastream The cost of imports will increase in term of pound
8 Export and Import UK-EU 550bn: UK total goods and services export (underestimated as to services) 80%: of UK trade is made up of services; 20% of goods 240bn=44% of UK export goes to EU countries 53%: the entity of the UK s total imports from the EU 12% GDP: the total of UK s exports goes to EU(240bn/2000bn) 2-3% GDP: The entity of EU s exports to the UK (310bn/15000bn) 310bn: EU s total volume of exports to UK 70bn: UK trade deficit with the EU ( )-this do not explain everything Dependency ratio Data Source: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016
9 %GDP growth 4,00 Real GDP Growth with Contributions 3,00 2,00 1,00 0, ,00-2,00-3,00-4,00-5,00 Productivity Employment of UK born Employment of EU born GDP growth Source: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016 (graph elaboration on OECD data.
10 European Immigration in the UK A successfull pattern 2,4mln: EU nationals working in the UK (on a total workforce of 32 mln people) 0,35%: UK real GDP growth contribution by EU born workers in ,71%: UK real GDP growth contribution by EU born workers in Y increase of 0,36% -2,7%: best-case scenario GDP reduction by 2030 ( /year immigration quota) -5%: central scenario GDP reduction by 2030 (67.000/year immigration quota) -7,5% worst-case scenario GDP reduction by 2030 (34.000/year immigration quota) Source: The Brexit effect on EU nationals: What will European Workers do next?, KPMG 2017; Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, UCL; The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016
11 EU budget in light of Brexit Opportunities and threats from UK withdrawal Source: facts and figures from Brexit and the EU Budget: Threat or Opportunity?, Jacques Delors Institute, 2017; The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016
12 EU budget in light of Brexit Opportunities and threats from UK withdrawal 10-11bn/year: prudential estimation of UK budgetary committments until 2020 (net of Tatcher rebate - 3bn/year) 24,5-72,8bn: estimated UK exit bill range (controversial issue) 5-17bn/year: estimated range of the possible budgetary gap after UK withdrawal Hot topics: 1. Future negotiations of post MFF; 2. Potential entrenchments between net contributors (Germany, Austria, Netherlands and Sweden) and rebate beneficiaries
13
14 Defence Industry and Investments Survey of Brexit views in UK defence, aerospace and space industry Source: Defence and Security After Brexit, Rand Europe 2017; European Defence in view of Brexit, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2017; EDA Website 2017, ADS Group 2017.
15 2,5 Defence Spending (%GDP) 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 European Union (28 countries) Euro area (19 countries) Germany (until 1990 former territory of the FRG) France Italy United Kingdom
16 Defence and Security 20%: UK s share in EU s overall military power 97,3bn: the annual economic value of EU-UK joint military R&D: Leonardo (former italian Finmeccanica) owns Selex and Agusta-Westland; Airbus and Thales joint ventures in the UK; Rolls-Royce takes part in the A400M transport-aircraft development (data from Aerospace and Defense Industries Association of Europe, 2015) 2,1%: share of UK s GDP devoted to defence spending in 2016 (the highest, after Greece, in the EU28) In case of Brexit: the most probable scenario would be a reduction in overall GDP growth, forcing EU member to find alternative budgetary accomodations to fund Joint R&D under EDA In case of Brexit/2: potential loss of a major defence spender, partially vanifying the pooling and sharing policy recently laid out in the framework of a EU common defense Source: Defence and Security After Brexit, Rand Europe 2017; European Defence in view of Brexit, German Institute for International and Security Affairs,
17 3,0 Defence Spending (%GDP) 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Germany (until 1990 former territory of the FRG) Italy European Union (28 countries) France United Kingdom Euro area (19 countries) Source: Eurostat, own graph based on Eurostat data
18 Exports of financial services (% GDP) 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 THE CITY IS THE LEADING EUROPEAN(AND NOT ONLY) FINANCIAL CENTRE United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 UK exports of FS took off in 2000s United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands EXFS/GDP Source: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016, graphs based on OECD data
19 ,0 UK Current Account deficit with EU - surplus in services (% GDP) 2,0 1,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0-4,0-5,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0-4,0-5,0-6,0-6,0-7,0-7,0 Trade in services Secondary income Primary income Trade in goods Current account balance -8,0 Source: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: a Taxing Decision, OECD 2016, Graph based on OECD data
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