Oklahoma Economic Report

Transcription

1 Oklahoma State Treasurer Ken Miller Oklahoma Economic Report Edmond Economic Development Authority March 23, 2017

2 Current situation February February Gross Receipts to the Treasury are higher than the same month of the prior year by 0.1% -- a second consecutive month of marginal growth after almost two years of contraction. Sales tax collections are up for first time since March 2016 and only the fourth time in two years. Gross production tax collections are higher than the same month of the prior year for a fifth consecutive month.

3 February Gross Receipts March 2016 February 2017 Dollar Variance in Millions Income Tax Sales Tax Gross Production Motor Vehicle Other

4 Current situation 12 Months During past 12 months, Gross Receipts to the Treasury are down by $624 million, or 5.5 percent, from prior 12 months. Oil and natural gas gross production collections are down by 12.4% and are $52 million less than during the prior period. All major revenue streams show contraction, but the gap is shrinking.

5 (in $ billions) Downturns in 12-Month Gross Receipts Great Recession downturn 14- months, down $1.9 billion Last downturn 22-months from peak, down $1.32 billion

6 Oil & Gas Employment 12-Month Gross Receipts/Oil & Gas Employment 12-Month Gross Receipts (in $ billions) 12-Month Gross Receipts Oil & Gas Employment (in thousands)

7 Oklahoma Recession Ends

8 (in millions) Gross Production Collections Two years prior Current 12 months One year prior

9 Unemployment U.S % OK - 4.7% U.S. Oklahoma

10 State Budget Picture Certified estimate for FY-18 is $878 million below current budget. Current fiscal year, FY-17, originally had $1.3 billion hole that was filled with budget cuts, some new revenue and more than $500 million in one-time funds. Year-to-date FY-17 General Revenue Fund allocations are $65 million, or 2%, below estimate, but are projected to finish 5.7% below estimate (revenue failure).

11 Corrective Action Needed The budget has become dependent on one-time funding sources of about $500 million per year. Governor Fallin proposes raising new revenue and ending use of nonrecurring funds. This month, S&P downgraded the state s credit rating for first time in 30 years and warned of further negative action unless the Legislature corrects the problem. Revenue or spending problem?

12 Core Four: Education U.S. Average: $11,009 Regional Average: $10,163 Oklahoma: $8,689 Sources: Price parity adjusted FY-14 per pupil common education spending, all sources, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA

13 Core Four: Health Care U.S. Average: $5,790 Regional Average: $6,171 Oklahoma: $5,307 Sources: Price parity adjusted FY-11 spending per Medicaid enrollee, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, BEA

14 Core Four: Public Safety U.S. Average: $554 Border State Average: $526 Oklahoma: $511 Sources: Price parity adjusted FY-14 state and local per capita spending for police and corrections, U.S. Census Bureau, BEA

15 Core Four: Transportation U.S. Average: $18,498 Border State Average: $11,297 Oklahoma: $11,250 Sources: Price parity adjusted FY-14 state and local spending per lane mile, U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Highway Administration, BEA

16 Per Capita Personal Income U.S. Average: $49,681 Border State Average: $45,083 Oklahoma: $45,326 Source: BEA, State Per Capita Personal Income, 2016-Third Quarter

17 Going forward... Modernize the tax code No tax cuts unless revenue neutral Structurally balance the budget Sufficiently fund the Core Four Stay the course on pension reforms

18 Still Bullish on Oklahoma Our fundamentals remain: Energy, agriculture, aerospace, biotech & manufacturing Employment Strong private sector partners Banks & real estate prices Quality of life

19 Stay informed