Discussion of Gicheva & Thompson, The Effects of Student Loans on Long- Term Household Financial Stability
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1 Discussion of Gicheva & Thompson, The Effects of Student Loans on Long- Term Household Financial Stability Jesse Rothstein Upjohn/Spencer/Ford School Conference on Student Loans October 2013
2 Summary Regress indicators of financial health/distress (bankruptcy, late payments, homeownership, etc.) on student debt. Sample is age 29+ in SCF. Instrument for debt w/ cohort mean. Separate analyses for college grads & noncompleters. Results: Debt associated with higher rate of distress. Larger effects for non- completers.
3 What is the counterfactual? Debt is the treatment. What is the control condi\on? Possibili\es include: A. Grant aid B. Lower tui\on C. Less aid / higher net price D. Higher family income Policy debate about whether student debt is too high is over A and to a lesser extent B (though D would be nice). In prac\ce C might be the policy alterna\ve. This paper: Comparison is later cohorts to earlier cohorts - - combines B, C, and perhaps a bit of D.
4 What is the counterfactual? Debt is the treatment. What is the control condi\on? Possibili\es include: A. Grant aid B. Lower tui\on C. Less aid / higher net price D. Higher family income Policy debate about whether student debt is too high is over A and to a lesser extent B (though D would be nice). In prac\ce C might be the policy alterna\ve. This paper: Comparison is later cohorts to earlier cohorts - - combines B, C, and perhaps a bit of D.
5 What is the counterfactual? Debt is the treatment. What is the control condi\on? Possibili\es include: A. Grant aid B. Lower tui\on C. Less aid / higher net price D. Higher family income Policy debate about whether student debt is too high is over A and to a lesser extent B (though D would be nice). In prac\ce C might be the policy alterna\ve. This paper: Comparison is later cohorts to earlier cohorts - - combines B, C, and perhaps a bit of D.
6 Debt as leverage Suppose earnings are y = f(d) + e, with: d is student debt (measured as payment). e is a random variable with variance v(d). Earnings net of debt are y d. Financial distress: 1(y d < c). Pr(distress) = Pr(f(d) d + e < c) = Pr(e < c f(d) + d). If grant aid is counterfactual, f (d) = 0, v (d)=0 If less aid is counterfactual, f (d) 0, v (d) 0 à sign is ambiguous. Condi\oning on ahainment, earnings shuts down f(d) response If lower tui\on is counterfactual, f (d) < 0, v (d) > 0 à Pr(distress) / d >> 0.
7 Debt as leverage Suppose earnings are y = f(d) + e, with: d is student debt (measured as payment). e is a random variable with variance v(d). Earnings net of debt are y d. Financial distress: 1(y d < c). Pr(distress) = Pr(f(d) d + e < c) = Pr(e < c f(d) + d). If grant aid is counterfactual, f (d) = 0, v (d)=0 If less aid is counterfactual, f (d) 0, v (d) 0 à sign is ambiguous. Condi\oning on ahainment, earnings shuts down f(d) response If lower tui\on is counterfactual, f (d) < 0, v (d) > 0 à Pr(distress) / d >> 0.
8 Debt as leverage Suppose earnings are y = f(d) + e, with: d is student debt (measured as payment). e is a random variable with variance v(d). Earnings net of debt are y d. Financial distress: 1(y d < c). Pr(distress) = Pr(f(d) d + e < c) = Pr(e < c f(d) + d). If grant aid is counterfactual, f (d) = 0, v (d)=0 If less aid is counterfactual, f (d) 0, v (d) 0 à sign is ambiguous. Condi\oning on ahainment, earnings shuts down f(d) response If lower tui\on is counterfactual, f (d) < 0, v (d) > 0 à Pr(distress) / d >> 0.
9 Debt as leverage Suppose earnings are y = f(d) + e, with: d is student debt (measured as payment). e is a random variable with variance v(d). Earnings net of debt are y d. Financial distress: 1(y d < c). Pr(distress) = Pr(f(d) d + e < c) = Pr(e < c f(d) + d). If grant aid is counterfactual, f (d) = 0, v (d)=0 If less aid is counterfactual, f (d) 0, v (d) 0 à sign is ambiguous. Condi\oning on ahainment, earnings shuts down f(d) response If lower tui\on is counterfactual, f (d) < 0, v (d) > 0 à Pr(distress) / d >> 0.
10 The cohort mean instrument Instrument is average amount borrowed per FTE student in the year the respondent turned 17. All varia\on is cross cohort - - a \me series design, with a strongly trending treatment. Poten\ally confounding factors: Rising inequality & instability Housing market trends Credit market changes Changes in bankruptcy rules Sugges\ons: Plot the instrument! Control for some of these cohort- level income distribu\on, year- level mean outcomes (or survey year FEs), year- level means*age
11 Figure 1: Average Loans per Full-Time Student $8,000 $800 Federal/Private Loans per FT Student $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Federal Loans per FT Student Total (Federal+Private) Loans per FT Student Average SCF Loans $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 SCF Loans $0 $0 Year From Gicheva (2013).
The Effects of Student Loans on Long-Term Household Financial Stability
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