Small Business Trends

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Scot May
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October 21 Small Business Trends Policy & Supervisory Studies Small Business Optimism 1 Small Business Sentiment: Reinforced Negative 2 Impediments to Job Growth 3 Small Business Trends at Firms with

1 October 21 Small Business Trends Policy & Supervisory Studies Small Business Optimism 1 Small Business Sentiment: Reinforced Negative 2 Impediments to Job Growth 3 Small Business Trends at Firms with Fewer Than 2 Employees 3 Small Business Credit Conditions 4 The views expressed in Small Business Trends are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. Small Business Since Small Trends Business Trends may contain proprietary October information, 21 its contents may be discussed but are not to be distributed. For more information, please contact the Public Affairs Department at

2 Small Business Optimism The Small Business Optimism Index was virtually even with prior-month levels. Apart from a brief, modest spike earlier this year, the index has displayed little upward momentum since the middle of 29. This scant improvement in optimism is reflected by continued limited employment growth. Goodsproducing employment at both small and mediumsized organizations continues to fall on both a month-to-month and year-over-year basis. Serviceproducing employment has seen mixed performance. Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986=1) Source: National Federation of Independent Business 89. September 21 Employment Trends Level Share of Growth (%) (s, SA) sector M-t-M Y-o-Y Goods-producing 17,442 1% -.26% -3.% Firm size ,358 36% -.31% -4.3% ,645 44% -.16% -1.9% > 499 3, % -3.1% Service-producing 89,57 1%.1%.3% Firm size ,891 47%.1%.4% ,56 37% -.1%.3% > ,56 16%.1% -.2% Source: ADP National Employment Report Employment (s, SA) 52, 5, 48, 46, 44, 42, U.S. Private Sector Employment by Size of Payroll 1-49 (Left) (Left) > 499 (Right) 4, , 2, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, Employment (s, SA) Source: ADP National Employment Report Poor sales remain the dominant concern for small businesses. However, the share of small businesses citing government requirements as their primary issue, although still comparatively low, has more than doubled since late 28. % of respondants 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Single-most Important Problem for Small Business Other, 5% Taxes, 23% Labor quality, 4% Poor sales, 3% Inflation, 4% Gov't requirements, 16% 1% % Financial, 3% Labor costs, 3% Insurance, 6% Competition from large business, 6% Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses Small Business Trends October 21 1

3 Small Business Sentiment: Reinforced Negative Perceptions The most recent Discover Business Watch survey suggests that the small business assessment of current economic conditions continues to fall. Over two-thirds of the respondents viewed current conditions as poor, surpassing the previous peak in late 28. Over half of the respondents expected further worsening of economic conditions over the next six months. Reflecting uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, an increasing share of small businesses have indicated plans to decrease investment spending over the next six months. On a positive note, however, the spike in layoff expectations that occurred back in August failed to repeat itself in the September survey. 6 4 Six-Month Business Outlook Better Worse (* -1) Better: 12 MA Worse: 12 MA 8% 6% Cash Flow Issue Within the Last 9 Days No Yes (* -1) No: 12 MA Yes: 12 MA 2-2 Percentage of Respondents 4% % % -6 Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Feb 21 Aug 21-6% Aug-6 Feb-7 Aug-7 Feb-8 Aug-8 Feb-9 Aug-9 Feb-1 Aug Anticipated Work Force Changes Hiring Laying Off (* -1) Hiring: 12 MA Laying Off: 12 MA 6 4 Current Economic Conditions Excellent/Good Poor (* -1) Excellent/Good: 12 MA Poor: 12 MA Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Feb 21 Aug Economic Trends Better Worse (* -1) Better: 12 MA Worse: 12 MA -8 Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Feb 21 Aug Six-Month Investment Spending Plans Increase Decrease (* -1) Increase: 12 MA Decrease: 12 MA Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Feb 21 Aug 21-6 Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Feb 21 Aug 21 Source: Data from Rasmussen Reports LLC/Discover Small Business Watch mid-month surveys Small Business Trends October 21 2

Small Business Trends at Firms with Fewer Than 2 Employees According to Intuit, employment at the smallest firms (2 workers or fewer) bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 29 and has since posted

In fact, the National Employment Index has retreated slightly in recent months while small business employment levels have continued to increase.

In fact, according to the most recent survey, monthly compensation actually posted modest declines. Regionally, small business employment remained elusive in the Midwest and Northern Plains states.

Florida and Georgia saw respective month-to-month increases in September of.2 percent and.3 percent. New Jersey, followed by Illinois, continued to see contracting payrolls.

4, 21 Source: Intuit Monthly Small Business Employment Growth (September 21) West North Central -.1% West South Central +.1% East North Central -.1% East South Central +.4% Middle Atlantic +.

4 Small Business Trends at Firms with Fewer Than 2 Employees According to Intuit, employment at the smallest firms (2 workers or fewer) bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 29 and has since posted modest job gains at rates surpassing the national average. In fact, the National Employment Index has retreated slightly in recent months while small business employment levels have continued to increase. Despite continued employment gains, wage growth among employees covered by the survey has remained stagnant. In fact, according to the most recent survey, monthly compensation actually posted modest declines. Regionally, small business employment remained elusive in the Midwest and Northern Plains states. Among the larger states, New York enjoyed the highest percentage of employment growth in September, at.8 percent, followed by North Carolina and Virginia, at.5 percent. Florida and Georgia saw respective month-to-month increases in September of.2 percent and.3 percent. New Jersey, followed by Illinois, continued to see contracting payrolls. Source: Intuit press release, Oct. 4, 21 Pacific +.2% Mountain +.1% Source: Intuit press release, Oct. 4, 21 Source: Intuit Monthly Small Business Employment Growth (September 21) West North Central -.1% West South Central +.1% East North Central -.1% East South Central +.4% Middle Atlantic +.2% South Atlantic +.2% New England +.% Impediments to Job Growth As indicated by the ADP Employment Report, although stabilizing, small business employment levels have posted only modest gains since the beginning of the year. The latest Discover Business Watch survey suggests that the biggest obstacle to hiring in the current economic environment is the uncertain economic outlook, followed by lack of revenue and tax burdens. Only 7 percent of those surveyed indicated that they were not hiring because of an inability to obtain financing. Respondents remained almost evenly split as to whether the proposed tax breaks from federal stimulus efforts would result in greater job creation by small businesses. Improved levels of small business hiring have historically been critical to overall economic growth. According to the Small Business Administration, small businesses accounted for 64 percent of the job growth over the past 15 years. What Is the Biggest Obstacle to Hiring New Workers? Can t secure loans 7% Not enough revenue 22% High taxes 17% I never intend to hire 16% Uncertain economic outlook 28% None of these 9% Not sure 2% Small Business Trends October 21 3

Small Business Credit Conditions Reflecting the fact that reported and planned capital expenditures are at 35-year lows, only one-third of small businesses reported borrowing on a regular basis,

Looking forward, more businesses expect that credit conditions will worsen from current conditions.

5 Small Business Credit Conditions Reflecting the fact that reported and planned capital expenditures are at 35-year lows, only one-third of small businesses reported borrowing on a regular basis, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. A net 14 percent of firms seeking credit reported that loans were more difficult to obtain than during prior attempts to get credit. Looking forward, more businesses expect that credit conditions will worsen from current conditions. According to the most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, banks have reported some net weakening in underwriting requirements for commercial and industrial loans. Moreover, they are seeing some moderation in the lack of demand from small firms for commercial and industrial loans Percent Expecting Credit Conditions to Ease, Net (SA, %) Source: National Federation of Independent Business In the most recent Discover Business Watch Survey, only 2 percent of respondents indicated that they would need a loan to grow their businesses. Of those needing a loan, the largest percentage would require financing of only $25, or less in order to grow their businesses. 1% Banks Tightening C&I Loans (%) 6% Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for C&I Loans (%) 8% 6% 4% From Small Firms From Large Firms 4% % - % -4% - To Small Firms To Large Firms -4% Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey/Federal Reserve Board -6% -8% Source: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey/Federal Reserve Board Do You Need a Loan to Grow Your Business? 5% If Yes, How Much of a Loan Do You Need? 44% No 71% Not Sure 9% Yes Percentage of "Yes" Respondents 4% 3% 1% 37% 11% 11% % < $25, $25, to $1, Note: Survey allowed for multiple responses. $1, to $25, Loan Size 4% $25, to $1 million 3% > $1 million Not Sure Small Business Trends October 21 4

Small Business Trends

March 2011 Small Business Trends Policy & Supervisory Studies Small Business Optimism 1 Small Business Sentiment 2 Small Business Trends at Firms with Fewer Than 20 Employees 3 Taxes 3 Small Business Credit