Improving Financial Stability in Croatia
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1 Improving Financial Stability in Croatia Tomislav Galac Croatian national bank 73 rd East Jour Fixe of the OeNB: Croatia The 28th EU Member State Vienna, June 17, 213 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Croatian National Bank and its management. 1
2 Great Recession & Credit Institutions (CIs) GDP growth (%) 2,1-6,9-2,3, -2, Unemployment (%) 8,4 9,1 11,8 13,5 15,8 CI loan growth (%) 11,6 -,7 6,2 5,6-3,3 CI's NP assets (%) 3,3 5,3 7,9 9, 1,1 CI's CAR (%) 15,2 16,4 18,8 19,6 2,5 CI's ROA (%) 1,6 1,1 1,1 1,2 1, CI's ROE (%) 9,9 6,4 6,5 6,9 6, 2
3 Credit Institutions Soundness (FSIs) Leverage (Eq. % Ass.) CAR ROAA (before tax) ROAE (after tax) NPA Ratio Prov. % Tot. Assets
4 FSIs International Comparison #1: Hi Capital #2: Moderate NPLs & Profits #3: Lo NPL Coverage & Deposit Base #4: Hi Financial Euroization (FE) Level #4: Delayed CI Deleveraging 4
5 NPL Coverage: Second Glance at Cover NPLR Cover (Y) vs. Historical Recovery Rate (X) HRV Source: WB Doing Business Indicators, IMF FSI Database 5
6 NPL Coverage: Second Glance at NPLs 2. 4 yr. NPLR ch. - Pred. (Y) vs. Obs. (X) HRV NPLRch=f(pppGDPcap, GDPch, UNEMPch) Source: IMF FSI & WEO databases, own calculations 6
7 NPLs: Structure and Trends Share of Non- Performing Loans (% loans in 12/28 12/29 12/21 12/211 12/ / 8 category) TOTAL 4,94 7,8 11,23 12,43 13,81 2,52 Gov. Units,31,2,28,31,18,99 NFCs 7,47 12,87 18,6 2,13 24,68 2,69 HHs 3,97 5,8 7,81 8,61 9,45 2,17 Home Ls 1,7 2,73 4,46 5,22 6,17 3,6 Other RE-sec. Ls 9,71 11,93 22,45 21,46 23,67 2,21 Car Ls 2,88 4,23 4,13 4, 4,97 1,39 CC Ls 1,86 3,4 3,98 4, 4,44 2,15 Other Ls 6,19 8,97 11,13 12,15 12,71 1,96 Oth. Sectors 2,11 5,69 6,76 4,46 4,61 2,11 7
8 NPLs: Obstacles to Resolution S.T.: CIs need to find optimal balance between early collection and restruc. of NPLs L.T.: Gov. needs to improve court adm. of NPL coll. Time to Recover (Y) vs. Recovery Rate (X) HRV Source: WB Doing Business Database 8
9 29/12 21/2 21/4 21/6 21/8 21/1 21/12 211/2 211/4 211/6 211/8 211/1 211/12 212/2 212/4 % FE: Credit Euroization & NPLs Share of Non- Performing Loans (% loans in category) 12/211 12/212 Total 12,43 13,81 HRK 16,81 16,46 EUR 11,8 12,82 HHs 6,93 7,4 Home Ls 3,29 3,67 CHF 11,16 13,14 HHs 8, 9,98 Home Ls 7,27 9,15 Car Ls 1,77 2,77 Oth. Ls 23,44 25,98 NFCs 4,24 49,67 Other Sectors 12,41 14,3 Oth. Currencies 7,13 15, Home NPLR - EUR NPLR - CHF NPLR - EUR Home NPLR - CHF 9
10 FE: Macroprudential Response Croatia has had persistently high DE for historical reasons -> Reducing CE level difficult (measures to address high FE during were only effective partly & temporarily) ESRB recommendations already implemented are: A) Improved disclosure of FX risks to borrowers (July), B) Stricter underwriting of FX loans, D) Improved internalization of FX risks, E) Holding more capital against FX risks ESRB recommendations which may be implemented (again) in the future: C) Required reserves on FX loans, F) Limits on FX funding (the main driver of CE in Croatia) 1
11 debt % GDP, annual change Credit Growth: Decomposition & Trends Debt to non-banks Ext. conn. lending Ext. debt Debt to banks Total debt
12 CI credit, HRK bill., CPI & one-offs adj. Credit Growth: Adjusted Stock of CI Credit NFCs 15 HHs CG - right 1 28/3 29/4 21/5 211/6 212/
13 Q1/3 Q3/3 Q1/4 Q3/4 Q1/5 Q3/5 Q1/6 Q3/6 Q1/7 Q3/7 Q1/8 Q3/8 Q1/9 Q3/9 Q1/1 Q3/1 Q1/11 Q3/11 Q1/12 Q3/12 billion HRK billion HRK Credit Growth: Demand vs. Supply Excess supply/supply shortage right Estimated demand for domestic loans Household and corporate loans Estimated supply of domestic loans Credit supply is a problem, ocassionally But, lending standards have tightened, too
14 Credit Growth: Cost of Borrowing 8% Corp. Loan Rate CDS+EURIBOR 3M Deposit Rate High funding costs (also due to LLSFR?) keep loan rates high despite of decreasing CDS prices
15 1/6 7/6 1/7 7/7 1/8 7/8 1/9 7/9 1/1 7/1 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 billion HRK Credit Growth: Recent Policy Response % Liquidity surplus (including overnight deposits with the CNB) - right Overnight interbank interest rate - left 1-year T-bills (HRK) - left + Special prime-rate lending schemes for NFCs adm. by CBRD 15
16 Credit Growth: Looking Forward All proposed micro-prudential CB measures are checked for pro-cyclicality & all outside policy proposals sent to the CB for the opinion are assessed against this criterion + CBRD lending schemes will be revised & continued. But, CIs also have to do their part there is plenty of capital & liquidity in the system, and there must be creditworthy clients in pockets of the credit market with low NPLs. 16
17 Conclusion: Points for Discussion #1: Credit Growth is Stalling What to Do? #2: Is Adequacy of the NPL Coverage In the Eye of the Beholder, and How to Improve NPL Collection? #3: Is FE different in Croatia, and should this affect the Measures to Reduce the FE level? 17
18 Appendix: International Comparison Graphs 1: Capital 2: Earnings 3: Asset Quality 4: NPL Coverage 5: Funding 6: Euroization 18
19 Credit Institutions Capital Base 25 RC / RWA (CAR) 25 Tier 1 Capital / RWA HR EST BG LV H SK CZ LT RO PL SLO Source: IMF (FSI) EST HR BG CZ SK LV LT RO H PL SLO Source: IMF (FSI) 19
20 Credit Institutions - Earnings 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 -,5-1 -1,5-2 ROA ROE Source: IMF (FSI) Source: IMF (FSI) 2
21 Credit Institutions Asset Quality LT RO Source: IMF (FSI) NPLs / Total Loans H SLO BG HR LV CZ SK PL EST Source: IMF (FSI) Net NPLs / Capital SLO LT H HR BG CZ LV RO EST SK PL 21
22 Credit Institutions NPL Coverage Provisions / NPLs RO LV PL BG SK CZ H SLO HR EST LT Source: IMF (FSI), own calculation Source: IMF (FSI) Capital / NPLs 22
23 Credit Institutions Funding 14 Loans / Deposits 9 Deposits / Total funding LV HR EST RO PL LT BG SK CZ RO LT HR PL LV CZ SK Source: IMF (FSI) Source: IMF (FSI) 23
24 Credit Institutions Financial Euroization FX / Total funding LV HR BG LT RO PL CZ SK FX / Total loans LV HR LT BG RO PL CZ EST SK Source: IMF (FSI), own calculation Source: IMF (FSI) 24
25 Slovenia Hungary Croatia Lithuania Estonia Slovak Rep. Romania Czech Rep. Poland Latvia Bulgaria Latvia Slovenia Estonia Hungary Lithuania Slovak Rep. Bulgaria Romania Czech Rep. Poland Croatia % of GDP % of GDP Credit Institutions Deleveraging Deleveraging of CEE banks in 212 CEE Deleveraging 12/212-9/ Sources: CNB and national central banks. Sources: CNB and national central banks.
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