Swedbank Investor presentation

Transcription

1 Swedbank Investor presentation July 2018

2 Disclaimer Certain statements made in this presentation are forward looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and performance to differ materially from any expected future results or performance, express or implied, by the forward looking statements. Factors that might cause forward looking statements to differ materially from actual results include, among other things, regulatory and economic factors. Swedbank AB assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained herein. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Swedbank AB or its directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of Swedbank AB or any of its directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Swedbank AB, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. 2

3 Table of contents Executive summary 4 1 Swedbank overview 5 2 Quarterly financial update 15 3 Capital considerations 25 4 Liquidity and funding 31 5 Cover pool data 40 6 Swedish and Baltic economy 47 7 Swedish housing and mortgage market 56 8 Appendix 69 3

4 Executive summary Strong financial position Sweden s largest retail bank with a leading position in our three Baltic home markets ROE target of at least 15% Strong asset quality! Solid liquidity and funding position survival horizon more than 12 months One of the best capitalised banks in Europe* with significant buffers to both MDA and Loss absorption trigger levels Dividend policy of 75% - for six consecutive years *According to EBA stress test 2016 Swedbank (Q1 2017) High customer activity! ROE: 19.2% (15.4%), 17.1% excl. one-off sale of UC (SEK 677m) Top 10 shareholders 1. Sparbanksgruppen, 10.4% 2. Folksam, 7.1% 3. AMF, 5.8% 4. Alecta, 4.7% 5. Swedbank Robur, 4.4% 6. Sparbanksstiftelser, 3.4% 7. Vanguard, 2.5% 8. BlackRock, 2.5% 9. SEB Fonder, 2.2% 10. Norges Bank, 1.9% Swedish owners, 60.2% Int l owners, 39.8% Sweden Our four home markets Cost/income ratio: 0.36 (0.39), 0.38 excl. one-off sale of UC CET1 capital ratio: 23.6% (24.8%) with requirements of 21.7% (fully loaded CRD IV) Leverage ratio: 4.5% (4.7%) Credit impairment ratio: -0.03% (0.03%) Total credit impairment provision ratio: 0.33% (0.35%) Share of loans in Stage 3, gross: 0.67% (0.70%) Provision ratio for loans in stage 3: 28% (28%) Liquidity and funding: LCR: 145% (EU 2015/61), NSFR: 110% Credit ratings: AA-(S)/AA-(S)/Aa2(S) from S&P/Fitch/Moody s Estonia Latvia Lithuania 4

5 This is Swedbank 1. Swedbank overview

6 Swedbank Low-risk, cost efficient and well capitalised This is Swedbank Large and diversified customer base Leading retail bank in our 4 home markets 7m PRIVATE CUSTOMERS Focus on Mid-corp and SME segments 18% corporate lending market share in Sweden 600k CORPORATE CLIENTS Stable profitability Return on equity target of at least 15% 19.2% (17.1% excl. one-off) Low risk Credit impairment ratio -0.03% Market-leading cost efficiency Cost income ratio 36% Solid capitalisation 190bps buffer to regulatory requirement 23.6% 6

7 Market leading position in our home markets This is Swedbank Loans (private)* Loans (corporate)* Deposits (private) Deposits (corporate) Payments** Funds 23% 18% 20% 16% 36% 21% SWEDEN 77% 82% 80% 84% 64% 79% ESTONIA 46% 54% 37% 63% 45% 43% 41% 42% 55% 57% 59% 58% LATVIA 31% 69% 18% 82% 34% 66% 19% 81% 50% 50% 42% 58% LITHUANIA 34% 66% 19% 81% 40% 60% 26% 74% 49% 51% 37% 63% * Excluding the Swedish National Debt Office and repurchase agreements ** BankGiro for Sweden, domestic payment transactions (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) = Swedbank 7

8 Strong financial position Low risk Stable earnings Market-leading cost efficiency Liquidity and capital ratios (%) Profit before impairments (SEK bn) Total expenses (SEK bn) NSFR LCR CET1 ratio, CRDIV (RHS) Credit impairment (bps) Return on equity (%) Cost / income ratio (%) -10 Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q Disposal one-off 0 Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q Acquisition one-off This is Swedbank Cap Source: Swedbank Fact book 8

9 Stable and profitable business mix - retail bank profile This is Swedbank Total income Net Interest Income Net Commission Income 100% 90% 80% 70% NII NCI NGL Other 85% of total loans in Sweden 50% Swedish mortgages Baltic banking very profitable 10% of Group lending Sweden s largest fund manager (SEK1.2trn AuM) 5 th largest card acquirer & 10 th largest card issuer in Europe 60% 50% 20% of Group operating profit, FY2017 Other 13% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lending and deposits 63% 2017 Total income Asset Management 11% Payment, Cards 9% Treasury, Trading and Capital Markets 4% Source: Swedbank Fact book 4Q

10 Swedbank strategy Strategy An available full-service bank Low risk Sustainability and customer value through a responsible core business Offering based on customer need and expectations High cost efficiency 10

11 Key priorities Strategy Customer Interaction Savings Lending & Payment Seamless omni-channel customer journey Regain market share through high-quality digital savings offer Fully-digital mortgage process Proactive, tailor-made product offers and advice Increase focus on pension savings Enhance corporate relationships with our improved cash management solution One financial access point for customers Customer-centric Financial Planning Platform Most convenient payments solutions for consumers 11

12 Digitalisation cost and income opportunities 90% of our customers are happy or very happy with our digital services Strategy Increase revenue via digital banking Improve cost and sales efficiency Customers increasingly connected via our digital channels Higher transaction volumes More cross-selling opportunities Further potential in manual to digital sales transformation 100% 80% Digitally active customers; 51% Customers without internet bank agreement; 33% Connected customers (less than monthly usage); 16% 60% 40% 20% 0% Payments Savings & pensions Digital sales Lending Manual sales Insurance Note: Data relates to Swedish Banking 12

13 Recent strategic achievements Strategy Launched in Sweden Already operating in the Baltics Fully digital consumer lending SmartID launched in the Baltics Enables faster transaction process for customers Digital customer identification and authorisation Meniga investment Data aggregation platform Fintech partnership PayEx acquisition Integration and new launches begun Enhanced merchant omnichannel payment solutions Improving sustainability offerings Nordic Swan Ecolabel - five labelled funds Improving sustainability offerings Improving sustainability offerings Swedbank Robur Launched a new Global impact fund 13

14 Swedbank creates value Strategy % 30 SEK 14 Return on Equity >15% target Return on equity (LHS) CET1 capital ratio (LHS) Dividend per share (RHS) % (17.2% excl. one-off) Common Equity Tier 1 ratio One of the highest among European banks 23.6% Dividend per share 75% payout ratio for 6 th year in a row SEK

15 Quarterly financial update 2. Quarterly financial update

16 Group financial highlights TOTAL INCOME SEK 11.8bn Total income, SEKbn Q Q Q Q Strong loan volume growth Higher commission income from cards and asset management One-off capital gain of SEK 677m (UC) Quarterly financial update Total expenses, SEKbn TOTAL EXPENSES SEK 4.3bn In line with full year guidance 0 Q Q Q Q Credit impairments, SEKm CREDIT IMPAIRMENTS SEK -135m Solid asset quality -200 Q Q Q Q KEY RATIOS ROE ROE excl. One-off * C/I ratio Credit impairment ratio CET1 capital ratio 19.2% 17.1% % 23.6% * Tax free capital gain of SEK 677m (UC) 16

17 Group result Stable net interest income Quarterly financial update NII, SEKm Q Loan volumes Margins Resolution fund fee Day count FX Treasury & Other Strong loan volume growth Slightly lower margins Higher resolution fund fee One more day in the quarter Positive FX effect Less favorable USD funding market 17

18 Group result Strong net commission income Quarterly financial update NCI, SEKm Seasonally higher cards income Asset management income supported by strong mutual fund inflows and positive asset value development Q Cards Asset management Lending & guarantees Payments Other 18

19 Group results Sale of UC generated one-off capital gain NGL, SEKm Other Income, SEKm 356 Q Q Q Q Other income UC Overall lower trading activity due to political uncertainty Continued good client FX and interest rate swap activity Quarterly financial update Improved result in Group Treasury due to FX swap valuation effects in Q1 One-off tax free capital gain of SEK 677m (UC) Positive arbitration result of SEK 85m related to Visa Lower claims in insurance business Q Q Q Q

20 Group results Strong profitability supported by high customer activity SEKm Q2 18 Q1 18 QoQ Net interest income Net commission income Net gains and losses Other income Total income Total expenses Profit before impairments Credit impairments Other impairments Tax Net profit Ratios Q2 18 Q1 18 ROE, % C/I ratio CET1 capital ratio, % Continued solid mortgage loan volume growth Corporate loan growth Resolution fund fee higher in 2018 and lower in Net commission income supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals One-off tax free capital gain of SEK 677m (UC) Expenses in line with guidance Solid asset quality Impairments of intangible assets Lower corporate tax rate from

21 Solid volume growth Swedish mortgage loans +10bn +16bn Loans +35bn Baltic Banking Corporate excl. Baltic Banking +8bn +15bn Private Corporate Of which FX Property mgmt Deposits +31bn * Private Corporate Of which FX bn Prof. services +3 3 Private, other +2bn Finance and ins Other +4 4 Of which FX +3 3 *excl. Group functions and other (Group Treasury) 21

22 Capital Strong capitalisation no excess capital Quarterly financial update CET1 capital ratio, % CET1 capital increased by SEK 0.5bn 24.6% 23.9% 24.6% 24.8% 23.6% 21.7% Positive effect from net profit of SEK 1.2bn excl. dividend Negative effect from IAS19 of SEK 0.8bn REA increased by SEK 23.7bn Q Q Q Q CET1 capital ratio requirement Buffer above minimum requirements of around 190bps 22

23 Capital Increased Risk Exposure Amount (REA) Quarterly financial update REA, SEKbn REA increased by SEK 23.7bn Loan volumes increased REA by 17.4bn FX SEK 2.9bn Q Credit risk Market risk CVA risk Other 23

24 Group Solid asset quality Quarterly financial update Credit impairments, SEKm Q2 18 Q1 18 QoQ Swedish Banking Baltic Banking Large Corporates & Institutions Swedbank Group Resilient asset quality in all business segments Recoveries in Baltic Banking and LC&I Ratios Q1 18 Q1 18 Credit impairment ratio, % Share of Stage 3 loans, gross % Total credit impairment provision ratio, %

25 Capital fully loaded CRD IV 3. Capital considerations

26 Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Composition of Swedbank s CET1 and total capital ratio requirements Capital fully loaded CRD IV 190bp 27.3% 30.4% Systemic Risk charge in Pillar 2 Automatic MDA Restrictions 21.7% 2.0% 6.6% 1.7% 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 4.5% 23.6% 12.2% 11.4% + AT1: 0.7% + T2: 0.9% + AT1: 0.2% + T2: 0.3% + AT1: 1.5% + T2: 2.0% 2.0% 8.2% 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 8.0% Swedbank CET1 Requirements Swedbank CET1 Capital Ratio Swedbank Total Capital Requirements 15.5% 14.9% Swedbank Total Capital ratio 25% REA Mortgage Floor Individual Pillar 2 charge Capital Conservation Buffer Countercyclical buffer (2.0%) Systemic Risk Buffer Additional T1 and T2 capital Minimum CET1 Requirement Available Distributable Items Items Swedbank AB (parent company) FY 2017 Share premium reserve Retained earnings Available distributable items** Change due to IFRS Dividend* Comprehensive income, other 176 ADI * paid out in March 2018 ** Based on fully audited numbers The calculation of the ADI is based on the Annual report, why this exercise as per should be seen as an example based on changes during the year. 26

27 Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Proposal from the Swedish FSA to move Pillar 2 risk-weight floor for mortgage loans to Pillar 1 Capital fully loaded CRD IV Automatic MDA Restrictions 120bp 16.0% 14.8% 2.0% 4.4% 1.1% 2.5% 1.6% 11.6% 3.0% 4.5% + AT1: 0.2% + T2: 0.2% + AT1: 1.5% + T2: 2.0% 20.7% 18.6% 2.0% 5.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.6% 3.0% 15.1% 8.0% Systemic Risk charge in Pillar 2 Individual Pillar 2 charge Capital Conservation Buffer Countercyclical buffer (2.0%) Systemic Risk Buffer Additional T1 and T2 capital Minimum CET1 Requirement CET1 capital and CET1 capital requirement in SEK largely unchanged buffer intact MDA buffer reduced to SEK 28bn (SEK 53bn) Continued comfortable distance to loss absorption trigger New Proposal CET1 requirements New Proposal Swedbank CET1 Capital Ratio New Proposal Total Capital Requirements New Proposal Swedbank Total Capital ratio Mar

28 Regulatory uncertainty remains Capital fully loaded CRD IV Basel proposal largely as expected Awaiting final details from EU and then Swedish regulator on new standardised approach Likely long phasing in period potentially until 2027 Comfortable buffers to current capital requirements Feel great comfort in our capital generation capacity No need to review current dividend policy on the back of the proposal Swedish FSA proposal to move the 25% mortgage loan risk-weight floor from Pillar2 to Pillar1 to come into effect as per 31 Dec,

29 MREL needs in line with expectations no imminent issuance plan Capital fully loaded CRD IV Requirements for 2018 set and published by the Swedish National Debt office (NDO) on 20 December % based on Total liabilities + Own funds 34.8% based on Risk Exposure Amount (REA) Transition period until 1 Jan, 2022 Already in compliance with current senior unsecured debt outstanding Issuance need to the equivalent of around SEK 88bn in subordinated MREL eligible securities to meet requirement by 1 Jan 2022 Sweden to adopt EU insolvency law Expected by year end Loss absorption amount Swedbank MREL requirements, SEKbn 132 Swedbank total capital *Nominal amount, ** Based on numbers 93 Recapitalisation amount 128 Senior unsecured debt >1Y** Based on proposal from Swedish FSA Loss absorption Recapitalisation amount*** amount*** *** Based on proposal from Swedish FSA to move the 25% risk-weight floor from Pillar2 to Pillar1 29

30 Asset portfolios low risk Group loan book*, total SEK 1 563bn Loan distribution Asset quality Hotels and restaurants, Retail Shipping and offshore, Transportation Manufacturing Other corporate lending 8% 7% Sweden Other property management Residential properties Agriculture and forestry 15% 30% 70% Private Corporate Baltic banking Household loans (90% mortgages) 70% 45% 55% Private Corporate Tenant ow ner associations * Loans to the public excl. loans to credit institutions and SNDO 30

31 Liquidity and funding 4. Liquidity and funding

32 Core balance sheet structure SEKbn Assets Lithuania Latvia Estonia SEKbn Liabilities CET1 Suppl. capital Senior unsecured debt Simplified balance sheet Liquidity and funding Other corporate lending, Sweden & other Nordic countries Deposits 800 Other private, Sweden Swedish mortgage loans Covered bonds

33 Covered bond strategy Liquidity and funding Covered bond strategy Sweden SEK bn 100% 90% Swedish households financial assets SEKbn % % % EUR/USD SEK bn 50% 40% 30% Other 20% 10% SEK 20-50bn 0% <5Y 3-7Y >7Y Maturity, years Deposits, cash and retail bonds (LHS) Pension savings and mutual funds (LHS) Total financial assets (RHS) Equities (LHS) Other financial assets (LHS) 33

34 Senior unsecured debt strategy Liquidity and funding SEKbn* 60 Senior unsecured debt maturity profile Senior unsecured debt *Nominal amount 34

35 Conservative funding position LCR 145% (EU 2015/61) Liquidity and funding NSFR 110% (Basel committee) Issued around SEK 83bn YTD (in addition, SEK 3bn in Tier 2 private placements) Plan to issue around SEK 145bn in 2018 Term funding issuance completed and planned Prefunded for more than 12 months SEKbn SEKbn Covered bonds Senior unsecured debt 900 Planned, covered bonds Planned, senior unsecured debt 800 Tier Survival horizon Days forward 35

36 Long-term funding maturity profile Liquidity and funding Long-term funding maturity profile, by funding source SEKbn Senior unsecured debt Covered bonds 200 Long-term funding maturity profile, by currency SEKbn Other GBP USD EUR SEK

37 Private placements active in both covered bonds and senior unsecured debt Liquidity and funding All major currencies Bullet format, FRN or Fixed EUR 20m equivalent minimum size Sweet spots: Senior: 2.5-5Y Covered: 3-8Y Longer tenors also possible Open for larger private placements Open to tap existing bonds Listing is optional FRN s (SEK and EUR) issued with a strike adjustment spread * Program formats available: Senior unsecured debt: MTN, NSV and potentially USD 144a format Covered bonds: MTN, RCB and Norwegian CB program *Spread added to the coupon to avoid negative coupon fixings. Bond issued above par to compensate for this. The above par value reflects the NPV of the adjusted spread 37

38 Liquidity reserve According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association Liquidity and funding Cash and holdings in central banks Deposits in other banks available overnight 846 Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or public sector entities Covered bonds Issued by other institutions Own issued Securities issued by non-financial corporates 235 Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 326 Other Total SEKm 1) Including loans to the Sw edish Ntional Debt Office 2) 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q are rated AAA. The rating requirement is AA-. Assets included in the liquidity reserve should comply w ith the follow ing: - assets shall be under the control of the Treasury function in the bank - assets can not be encumbered - market values are used for the assets - only unencumbered securities receiving 0-20% risk w eight under the standardised approach to credit risk of the Basel II framew ork can be included - securities received in reverse repo transactions shall be included in the liquidity reserve and securities used as collateral for repo transactions shall be excluded 38

39 Rating Liquidity and funding On 20 April 2018, Moody s upgraded the rating of Swedbank AB (Swedbank) to Aa2 from Aa3. The upgrade reflects Moody's expectations of the bank's issuance of additional loss-absorbing debt in response to bank-specific MREL (Minimum Requirements for own funds and Eligible Liabilities) requirements set by the Swedish resolution authority. At the same time Moody s placed the high trigger AT1 ratings of Swedbank AB on review for downgrade as there will be negative pressure on these if the Swedish FSA adopts the current proposal to move the risk-weight floor for mortgages from pillar II to pillar I. November 24, 2017, S&P affirmed the rating of Swedbank at AA-/A-1+, with a stable outlook. The rating reflect Swedbank s strong business position, given the market-leading retail position, strong revenue performance, and efficiency, as well as prudent management and strategy. S&P also assess the capital and earnings as strong, reflecting the strong earnings capacity. The stable outlook on Swedbank resilient earnings and capital as Sweden's economy benefits from improvements in Europe's economic environment and the domestic housing market adjusts to higher volumes and stricter amortization requirements. May 26, 2016, Fitch upgraded the rating to AA- from A+, with a stable outlook. The main drivers behind the upgrade are: Execution of the low risk strategy including conservative risk-returns and underwriting standards, strong retail franchise and continued strong capitalisation. Short Long SACP 1 Short Long BCA 1 Short Long VR 1 Swedbank A-1+ AA- a+ P-1 Aa2 a3 F1+ AA- AA- Swedbank Mortgage A-1+ AA- - P-1 Aa Covered bonds - AAA Aaa Standalone Rating S&P (Stable) Moody's (Stable) Fitch (Stable) 39

40 Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) 5. Cover pool data

41 Cover pool data 1 Rating, S&P / Moody s AAA / Aaa Total pool size SEK 955.1bn Geographic distribution Sweden 100% Current OC-level 78.7% Weighted average seasoning 2 Average LTV 3, 4 66 months WA LTV on property level (Max LTV) 51% Non-performing loans 5 None Repayment structure 7 Amortising 69% Interest only 31% Average loan size SEK Number of loans outstanding Number of borrowers Number of properties Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) Fixed /Floating interest loans 6 Fixed 29.6% Floating 70.4% Dynamic pool 1 As per 30 June, sector loans not included 3 Index valuation as per March, Maximum LTV: Residential 75%, Commercial 60%, Forest and Agriculture 70% 5 Past due loans > 60 days are not eligible for the cover pool 6 Floating interest loans < 365 days 7 Property level of cover pool Yes 41

42 Cover pool data Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) Type of loans 30 Jun (based on loan volume) 2018 Residentials 92.3% of w hich Single-family housing 57.1% of w hich Tenant ow ner rights 21.0% of w hich Tenant ow ner association 9.3% of w hich Multi-family housing 4.9% 0.6% Commercial 0.8% Forest & Agricultural 6.3% Population 100.0% 31 Dec (thousands) 2017 Sw eden Stockholm, county Västra Götaland, county (incl. Gothenburg) Skåne, county (incl. Malmoe) Geographical distribution, Sw eden, per cent 30 Jun (based on loan volume) 2018 North 6.5 Norrbotten county (BD) 1.4 Västerbotten county (AC) 2.4 Västernorrland county (Y) 1.5 Jämtland county (Z) 1.2 Middle (including Stockholm) 44.0 Dalarna county (W) 2.0 Gävleborg county (X) 2.1 Värmland county (S) 2.0 Örebro county (T) 2.6 Västmanland county (U) 2.4 Uppsala county ( C) 4.1 Södermanland county (D) 2.1 Stockholm county (including Stockholm) (AB) 26.7 South (including Göteborg and Malmö) 49.5 Västra götaland county (Including Göteborg) (O) 17.9 Östergötland county (E) 4.3 Jönköping county (F) 3.5 Halland county (N) 4.2 Kronoberg county (G) 2.1 Kalmar county (H) 2.9 Skåne county (including Malmö) (M) 12.6 Blekinge county (K) 1.4 Gotland county (I)

43 Cover pool loan-to-value distribution Weighted average LTV on property level 49% Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) LTV distribution per property 1 LTV distribution by volume 1, 2 30% 30% 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% % loans of 0.6% of the cover pool are excluded as they are either guaranteed by a Swedish municipality or the government and have therefore no LTV assigned to them. 2 LTV distribution as defined by the Association of Swedish Covered Bond Issuers ( 43

44 Cover pool loan type and loan-to-value distribution Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) WA LTV per property type 1 Percentage of the pool Average LTV per loan type 120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% Single-family homes Tenant owner rights (apartments) Tenant owner associations Multi-family housing Commercial Forestry & Agricultural Total all types 1 0% 1 excluding public sector loans of 0.6% 44

45 Over-collateralisation Strong resilience to house price changes 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% House price sensitivity of the cover pool OC, Q218 Min req. 2% Current OC-level of 78.7% 2% legal minimum requirement Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation ( ) Can withstand a severe house price drop and still be able to issue AAA-rated covered bonds 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50% House price drop 45

46 Overview of the Swedish covered bond legislation The Covered Bond Act The Covered Bond Act entered into force on July 1, 2004 and is over-sighted by the Swedish FSA. Its main characteristics are: Dual recourse to the issuer and cover pool Dynamic, regulated pool of assets, frequently monitored by the Swedish FSA via appointment of an independent inspector Regulated valuation of cover pool assets which remain on the balance sheet The cover pool may consist of certain mortgage credits, public credits and supplemental assets. There is no requirement to segregate mortgage and public credits. Maximum LTVs: Residential 75%, Agricultural 70%, Commercial 60% Loan-to-value ratios and other limitations Maximum 10% commercial loans and 20% supplemental assets in cover pool Regular monitoring of the property values, revaluation of property prices in case of significant drop (generally interpreted as 15% drop) The S.O. Act amended, effective as of 21 June 2016, requires that the nominal value of the cover pool shall, at all times, be at least two per cent. higher than the aggregate nominal value of the liabilities relating to the covered bonds.. Regional constraint on collateral assets (Mortgage - EEA, - OECD) Matching requirements Benefit of a priority right over the cover pool Administration in event of bankruptcy The cover pool value shall always exceed the aggregate value of claims (including derivatives) A sound balance in terms of FX, interest rates and maturities must be achieved. It is deemed to exist when the present value of the cover pool at all times exceed the present value of liabilities (including derivatives), even on a stressed basis. Present value cover must hold even after 1% upward and downward shift in the yield curve and a 10% change in the currency Non-performing assets in the cover pool which are more than 60 days overdue must be disregarded for the purposes of the matching tests Holders of covered bonds and relevant derivative counterparties benefit from a priority claim over the cover pool should the institution be declared bankrupt and rank pari passu ahead of unsecured creditors and all other creditors of the institution in respect of assets in the cover pool The registered assets in the cover pool, the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts are required to be maintained as a unit and kept segregated from other assets and liabilities of the bankruptcy estate of the institution. The administrators-in-bankruptcy are then required to procure the continued timely service of payments due under the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts Source: 46

47 Swedish and Baltic macro 6. Swedish and Baltic economies

48 Sweden - Strong growth gradually slowing Key economic indicators 1, Most recent F 2019F Real GDP (calendar adjusted) 3.3 (Q1) CPI growth, average 2.1 (Jun) CPIF growth, average 2.2 (Jun) Unemployment rate (15-74), % of labor force 6.2 (May) Savings ratio (households),% Real disposable income (households) Kingdom of Sweden rated Aaa/AAA/AAA Swedish and Baltic macro Sources: Statistics Sweden & Swedbank Research 1 Annual percentage growth in percent unless indicated otherwise. 2 Seasonally adjusted and smoothed Domestic demand drives growth Sentiments remain elevated 48

49 The Swedish economy Households remain cautious Housing investments to be replaced by other investments Swedish and Baltic macro Overall investments are trending higher Exports depend on geopolitics 49

50 The Swedish economy, cont. Strong labour market developments Solid public finances Swedish and Baltic macro Inflation resumes Weak krona 50

51 The Swedish credit market Lending to households slows Interest rates remain low; while margins are stable Swedish and Baltic macro A gradual tightening of monetary policy Quantitative easing formally ended in

52 Baltics continued growth albeit at slower rates Key economic indicators 1, Most recent F 2019F Real GDP Estonia 3.1 (Q1) Latvia 4.0 (Q1) Lithuania 3.7 (Q1) CPI growth, average Estonia 4.0 (Jun) Latvia 2.8 (Jun) Lithuania 2.6 (Jun) Unemployment rate (15-74), Estonia 6.8 (Q1) % of labor force Latvia 8.2 (Q1) Lithuania 7.2 (Q1) Ratings Republic of Estonia: A1/AA-/A+ Republic of Latvia: A3/ A-/A- Republic of Lithuania: A3/ A-/A- Swedish and Baltic macro 1 % growth rate unless indicated otherwise, Y/Y growth for the most recent data Real economic growth picked up in 2017 Unemployment is declining 52

53 Estonia: Growth to slow after peak Economic growth expanded in the fastest pace in five years in 2017 Swedish and Baltic macro Domestic demand and export the main drivers Export and manufacturing output drive growth 53

54 Latvia: Solid growth to continue Supported by strong confidence, pro-cyclical fiscal policy, rapid wage growth, global tailwinds Swedish and Baltic macro Sharp cyclical pick up in growth to moderate Sentiments remain strong 54

55 Lithuania: GDP growth will revert to potential Weaker household consumption and export growth, but investments to pick up Swedish and Baltic macro Growth has peaked and start to ease Capacity constrains will limit export growth 55

56 Swedish housing and mortgage market 7. Swedish housing and mortgage market

57 Housing prices have stabilised during 2018 The decline in prices last year followed strong price increases due to high demand and limited supply Supply grew on the back of a surge in housing investments Market is searching for new balance after stricter borrowing criteria Home prices (annual change) and macroprudential measures Swedish housing and mortgage market

58 Price developments vary across the country and type of housing Swedish housing and mortgage market Price volatility has been most pronounced in the Stockholm area Prices of apartments vary most; single-family houses are holding up better Housing prices stabilised during 2018 Price developments flats and single family houses 1) Trends and average house prices, June ) Tenant owner rights 1 month 3 months 12 months SEK/sqm 2) Sweden total -0.4% +0.7% -6.7% Greater Stockholm -0.5% +0.5% -8.0% (85 074) Greater Gothenburg -1.5% +1.3% -4.2% (59 528) Greater Malmoe -0.2% -0.7% -3.8% (30 255) Single-family homes 1 month 3 months 12 months SEK 2) Sweden total -0.6% +0.3% -2.4% Greater Stockholm -0.5% -1.7% -7.3% Greater Gothenburg +0.3% +1.5% -1.8% Greater Malmoe +1.0% +1.7% +1.4% ) Source: Valueguard (HOX index) 2) Source: Mäklarstatistik, monthly average transaction prices (central city area) 58

59 Housing market stabilising in 2018 New amortisation requirement caused temporary market distortions Housing transactions normalised after January and February Housing prices stabilised in first half of 2018 Swedish housing and mortgage market Housing transactions normalised after amortisation requirement Housing prices stabilised in first half of

60 Household borrowing dampens while financing costs remain low Mortgage volume growth is driven by new housing supply and higher mortgage amounts by existing borrowers Housing interest costs remain at low levels, but amortisation amount increases Reasonable to expect some slowdown from last year s 7.4% market growth; May growth was 6.8% Swedish housing and mortgage market Mortgage loan growth, housing prices and interest rate Household interest expenses (as % of disp. income) 60

61 Solid structural foundation for the housing and mortgage market Swedish housing and mortgage market Full recourse (very limited debt forgiveness possibilities) No securitisation (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3 rd party origination Restricted buy-to-let market limited speculation 64% home ownership Rental market is regulated Transparent credit information (credit information agency, ly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc. Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest rate and conservative cost of living Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system Swedbank s underwriting criteria In the repayment ability calculation, the interest rate used is the equivalence to the Mortgage company s 5 year fixed interest rate + 3 percentage points, with a minimum of at least 7 %. Amortisation rate requirement according to SFSA: For LTV 70 %, then 1 % is used as rate. For LTV > 70 %, then 2 % is used as rate. For DTI > 450 %, then the amortisation rate is one percentage more. For underwriting credits to tenant owner rights, the tenant owner association s financials are examined, and based the interest rate sensitivity of the association and price per square meter an add-on to the tenants fee is applied in the repayment ability calculation. 61

62 Household fundamentals support the housing market Solid labour market Swedish housing and mortgage market Population growth and urbanisation trends continue Solid labour market developments Solid balance sheets among households Construction lags population growth Strong household balance sheets 62

63 Swedbank s exposure to the Swedish residential property market Swedish housing and mortgage market Swedbank has a low risk residential property portfolio Origination discipline and profitability have been prioritised over volume Engagement in low risk projects with well-known residential property developers will continue 63

64 Swedbank has a low-risk residential property portfolio Swedish housing and mortgage market Real estate lending, net loans in Sweden, SEKbn 1) Total real estate portfolio 18 Of which: Residential property development Private mortgages: SEK 781bn, average LTV 56% Tenant owner associations ( TOA ): SEK 109bn SEK 97bn existing TOA, average LTV 39% SEK 12bn TOA under construction Property management: SEK 195bn SEK 69bn in residential property management (rental apartment properties) SEK 126bn in other property management Construction SEK 17bn SEK 6bn residential property development SEK 11bn infrastructure, groundwork, craftsmen Swedbank has pursued a low risk strategy by tightening origination standards, and prioritising price and risk over volume growth Bulk of assets in low risk segments Average LTVs in lower ranges Residential property developer exposures of SEK 18bn 1) As of 30 June

65 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 28% 31% 34% 37% 40% 43% 46% 49% 52% 55% 58% 61% 64% 67% 70% 73% 76% 79% 82% 85% 88% 91% 94% 97% 100% Private mortgages a low risk portfolio Low average LTVs (56% in back book, June 2018) Low historic losses (0.02% on average during the last 25 years) About 73% of total loans to single family homes Swedbank has for several years grown, but at a slower rate than the market Swedish housing and mortgage market Growth YoY lower or at the market Loan growth in % YTD Loan growth Swedbank Loan growth market High diversification Loans net 1) by geography 26% 27% SEK 781bn Stockholm region Malmö region < inhabitants 7% 28% 12% Gothenburg region > inhabitants Only 1% above 75% LTV Loans 1) to Private Mortgage by (sliced ) LTV-bucket SEKbn 85% with LTV <50% 99% with LTV <75% 1) As of 30 June

66 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 37% 41% 45% 49% 53% 57% 61% 65% 69% 73% 77% 81% 85% 89% 93% 97% >100% Tenant Owner Associations low leverage Total loan portfolio SEK 109bn, of which SEK 10bn is construction loan for new development: 50-80% of the tenant owner rights needs to be pre-sold before start, and 100% before final financing When the construction is finalised about 60% of construction loans will be repaid through equity from the TOA members Low historic losses (average 0.17% over the last 25 years, most of which occurred during the 1990 s) Swedish housing and mortgage market Growth, but lower than the market Portfolio reflects market Average LTV of only 39% Loan growth in % Q1 Loans net 1) by geography 30% 13% SEK 109bn 10% 11% 36% Loans 1) to Tenant Owner Associations by LTV-bucket 4 SEKbn 95% with 99.8% with LTV <50% LTV <75% Loan growth Swedbank Loan growth market Stockholm region Malmö region < inhabitants Gothenburg region > inhabitants 1) As of 30 June

67 Residential property developers - low exposure Total loan portfolio of SEK 18bn, mainly to the larger listed construction firms, with which Swedbank has long-term relations SEK 12bn of the loans are related to tenant-owner rights projects SEK 6bn of the loans are related to residential property construction activities 90% of these projects will be finalised in 2018 and 2019 Swedish housing and mortgage market Tenant-owner rights related construction loans 1) the risk is highly mitigated 24% By location 1) 4% 10% 5% Stockholm region Malmö region < inhabitants 57% Gothenburg region > inhabitants Finalisation year 2) 38% 10% SEK 10bn % Average % pre-sold by finalisation year ) As of 30 June ) Share of exposure

68 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 28% 31% 34% 37% 40% 43% 46% 49% 52% 55% 58% 61% 64% 67% 70% 73% 76% 79% 82% 85% 88% 91% 94% 97% 100% Residential property management stable cash-flow generation Swedish housing and mortgage market Total loans of SEK 69bn towards residential property management companies Financing of rental apartment properties Well-known companies with solid finances and high collateralisation Strong and stable cash-flow generation, no speculation and low vintage risk Growth in 2018 from selected customers Loan growth, in % H1 Loan growth Swedbank Regional cities dominate Loans net 1 ) by geography 25% 41% Stockholm region Malmö region < inhabitants SEK 69bn 19% 8% 7% Gothenburg region > inhabitants Average LTV of 55% Loans 1) to Residential property management by LTV-bucket SEKbn 86% with LTV <50% 99.7% with LTV <75% 1) As of 30 June

69 Appendix

70 Swedbank largest retail bank in our four home markets This is Swedbank Sweden Population 10.1m Private customers 4.1m Corporate customers Organisations Branches 191 Cards 4.3m Number of card purchases 344m Digitally active customers* 2.9m Latvia Population 2.0m Private customers 0.9m Corporate customers Branches 33 Cards 1.0m Number of card purchases 43.0m Digitally active customers* 0.5m Estonia Population 1.3m Private customers 0.9m Corporate customers Branches 33 Cards 1.1m Number of card purchases 54.7m Digitally active customers* 0.5m ~85%* * Share of loan book ~10%* Lithuania Population 2.9m Private customers 1.5m Corporate customers Branches 59 Cards 1.7m Number of card purchases 41.8m Digitally active customers* 0.7m Source: Swedbank Factbook * Number of customers that have made a payment, transfer, application, investments or lending activity in the last month 70

71 Swedbank low-risk bank with strong capital base Low risk a Board of Directors strategic priority ensures access to funding markets and low funding cost Retail profile and four home markets a key feature Around 86% of total loans originated in Sweden - Swedish mortgages account for 50% of total loans 90% of total loans are collateralised (77.2% real estate and 12.8% other collateral) Strong capital position Board of Directors decision to maintain a buffer above prevailing SFSA capital requirements to have operational flexibility current buffer around 190bps Conservative funding and liquidity position survival horizon longer than 12 months assuming closed funding markets, NSFR 110% and LCR 145%* Baltic operations self-funded loan-to-deposit ratio < 100% * From Q the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) is calculated in accordance with the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU 2015/61) of 10 October 2014 (also, see Fact book, page 57) NSFR LCR* CET1 ratio, CRDIV (RHS) Liquidity & capital, % This is Swedbank Credit impairment ratio, bps Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q

72 Swedbank strong and stable earnings capacity This is Swedbank Four home markets Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania Strong and stable economies Market-leading position in all home markets Largest customer base in all home markets Retail profile ensures stable earnings with low volatility High cost efficiency a strategic priority ensures good profitability Stable earnings support a low risk profile and a strong capital position Profit before impairments, SEKbn 10 8 Disposal one-off Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 17 Q

73 Swedbank market leader in cost efficiency This is Swedbank Best-in-class cost efficiency an executive management strategic priority Executive management strongly focused on cost and change management Integrated in corporate culture Focus on straight-through-processing Evolving household banking model digitisation trend Retail profile a key feature Four home markets Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania reduce complexity Largest private and SME customer base High degree of digitisation in home market Cost target for to be below SEK 17bn per year Total expenses, SEKbn Acquisition of Sparbanken Target 18 C/I ratio, %

74 Our 2018 and 2019 priorities will further increase customer satisfaction, revenue and cost efficiency Strategy 1 Offers based on customer data N 3 Digital payment and commerce offerings 5 Improved savings and pension offerings 7 Distribution of relevant products in 3 rd party channels 9 Channel transformation W E S Excellent digital experience Digital lending process Corporate selfservice and cash management offer Leverage on automation 74

75 Re-cap of Theme day I and II Strategy Modular and step-wise renovation First mover Our infrastructure is a flexible core platform enabling us to change with customer behaviour, supported by our innovation culture and increasing use of intelligent automation tools Improving customer experience, relevance and sales by leveraging our trust, customer data, digitalisation and products through specialised units. Initiatives and investments in place to scale up current business model and capture growth potential Long history and strong experience combined with access to data 75

76 Focus on sustainable business Improved sustainability scores Dow Jones Sustainability Index Swedbank s first Green Bond Impact Report released Green Bond Impact Report In accordance with Swedbank s Green Bond Framework established last year the Green Bond Impact Report for 2017 has now been released. It shows that resulting investments in eligible green assets has enabled tonnes of CO2 emissions to be avoided (annualised). Stronger Environmental Management System (EMS) ISO Swedbank s upgraded Environmental Management System was certified with the new and more rigorous standard ISO14001:2015. Swedbank is included in The Sustainability Yearbook 2018 Swedbank Robur launches unique SDG equity fund Swedbank Robur s new sustainability equity fund, Global Impact, invests in companies that through their products, services and activities, contribute to reaching the UN s SDGs. The fund allows our customers to earn capital returns while contributing to a better, more sustainable world. Eligible green assets Renewable energy Energy efficiency Sustainable management of living natural resources Pollution prevention and control Clean transportation Sustainable Development Goal SDG7 and SDG13 SDG7, SDG11 and SDG13 SDG15 SDG6 and SDG11 SDG9 and SDG11, SDG13 Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda Swedbank has developed a new methodology, Sustainability Indicators, to review the progress towards the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The aim is to support the business looking at ESG (environmental, social, governance) criteria and help to identify weaknesses and strengths in Sweden and the Baltic countries. The Sustainability Yearbook The Sustainability Yearbook lists the world s most sustainable companies in each industry as determined by their score in RobecoSAM s annual Corporate Sustainability Assessment. 76

77 Stage 1 loans Stage 2 loans Stage 3 loans IFRS 9 main characteristics of the different loan stages Asset quality Initial recognition, or no significant increase of credit risk Impairment amounting to 12-month expected credit losses Significant increase in credit risk Impairment amounting to lifetime expected credit losses Watchlist Evidence of impairment Impairment amounting to lifetime expected credit losses Probability of default = days past due days past due 90 days over due 77

78 Stage 1 loans Stage 2 loans Stage 3 loans IFRS 9 Distribution of loans Asset quality Loans to the public distribution, % (total, SEK 1 563bn) Credit impairment provisions distribution, % (total, SEK 5 462m) 92.5% 58.0% 32.0% 10.0% 7.0% 0.5% 78

79 IFRS 9 implementation, 1 Jan 2018 Asset quality Stage 3 loans - transition from IAS 39 into IFRS 9, SEKm Impaired loans Q IFRS 9 implementation effect 1 Jan, Change in Stage 3 loans Stage 3 loans Q Change in Stage 3 loans Stage 3 loans Low impact Fully implemented no transition rules CET1 capital negatively impacted by SEK 0.4bn REA reduced by SEK 0.7bn CET1 capital ratio negatively impacted by 6bps 79

80 Sweden the dominating home market Total lending to the public amounts to SEK 1 563bn (as per ), out of which around 85% is originated in Sweden Estonia makes up 47% of total lending in the Baltics This is Swedbank Lending distributed by countries Sweden 84.5% SEK 1 321bn Estonia 5.1% Swedish Mortgage loans (private+corp) Latvia 2.2% Other corporate (incl. LC&I, Sweden) Lithuania 3.4% Other* 4.8% * Mostly Norway and Finland 80

81 No automatic sanctions for breaching the Pillar 2 capital requirements Capital fully loaded CRD IV It is particularly important that FI has the possibility of giving due consideration to the specific situation in which a firm in financial stress finds itself For example, certain risks included in the assessment of the Pillar 2 basic requirement might have materialized, which might mean there are no longer grounds for requiring the firm to hold capital for them. 21.7% 10.3% It ought to be positive for financial stability that a firm has the possibility to restore its capital without the firm necessarily becoming subject to priory specified and automatic legal restrictions. In other words, firms are hence given the possibility of re-establishing their capital in a strained situation without automatic restrictions on distributions or, depending on the size of the capital shortage, a formal resolution phase being activated." Hence a firm may freely choose the most suitable way of restoring the capital in that specific situation. For example, the firm is not obliged to halt or limit dividends or interest payments on Tier 1 capital contributions, if the firm can identify other and more appropriate ways of restoring the capital sufficiently quickly. Automatic MDA Restrictions 11.4% Swedbank CET1 Requirements Pillar 2 CET requirement Pillar 1 CET1 requirement 81

82 Wholesale funding profile Liquidity and funding 40% or SEK 412bn of wholesale funding < 12 months, SEK 435bn placed with central banks Average maturity for covered bonds, 40 months Average maturity for senior unsecured bonds, 31 months Outstanding wholesale funding, SEK 1 027bn 600 Q Maturity profile of outstanding wholesale funding 7% 26% M M % 14% >1-5Y >5Y 0 Covered bonds Senior unsecured Structured retail bonds Short-term programmes 82