DEMOGRAPHIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE August 16, 2007 8:30 A.M. to 11:00 A.M. Ada County, Commissioner s Hearing Room 200 W. Front Street Boise, ID Notice: This packet contains only the documents listed with an asterisk (*) in the agenda. The entire packet, including all attachments is available at agenda051707.doc. The online document requires Adobe Acrobat to read it; COMPASS homepage http://www.compassidaho.org contains a free download link if you need a copy. The online document includes bookmarks at the left of the screen that are named to correspond to agenda items that have attachments. Clicking on a bookmark will take you directly to the named document. I. 8:30 AGENDA ADDITIONS/CHANGES **AGENDA** II. 8:35 OPEN DISCUSSION/ANNOUNCEMENTS III. 8:40 CONSENT AGENDA *A. Approve May 17, 2007 Meeting Minutes IV. 8:45 INFORMATION/DISCUSSION ITEMS *A. Review Growth Drivers Report Carl Miller 9:00 *B. Review Population Forecasts Carl Miller V. 9:30 JOINT MEETING *A. Discuss Growth Issues Charles Trainor VI. 11:00 ADJOURNMENT *Enclosures Times are approximate. Agenda is subject to change. T:\FY07\800 System Maintenance\820 Committee Support\DAC\Agendas\agenda081607.doc
ITEM III-A DEMOGRAPHIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE May 17, 2007 Community Planning Association **MINUTES** ATTENDEES: MEMBERS ABSENT: Brian Billingsley, City of Caldwell Matt Ellsworth, City of Meridian Kelli Fairless, Valley Regional Transit Bonnie Ford-LeCompte, Canyon County Development Jorge Garcia, Idaho Dept. of Environmental Quality Jay Gibbons for Leslie Toombs, Ada County Norm Holm, City of Nampa Kathy Knapp for Tim Richard, Association of Canyon County Highway Districts Susan Mason, Boise State University Christy Richardson, Ada County Highway District Barr Smith, Idaho Power Company Nichoel Baird Spencer, City of Eagle, Mary Shaw Taylor, Idaho Power Company Jenah Thornborrow, City of Garden City Jennifer Tomlinson, City of Boise Mindy Wallace, Ada County Highway District Mike Wardle, SunCor Development, Vice Chair Lisa Bachman, City of Kuna Mary Berent, City of Middleton, Chair Paul Hiller, Chamber of Commerce-Ada County Nathan Mitchell, City of Star Larry Rincover, Public Participation Committee Eric Shannon, Chamber of Commerce-Canyon County OTHERS PRESENT: Phil Choate, Idaho Transportation Department, District 3 Ross Dodge, COMPASS Carl Miller, COMPASS Marilyn Sampson, COMPASS Charles Trainor, COMPASS Debbie Winchar, COMPASS CALL TO ORDER: Vice Chair Wardle called the meeting to order at 8:40 a.m. AGENDA ADDITIONS/CHANGES Vice Chair Wardle asked for additions or changes to the agenda. Carl Miller requested that Item IV-B be delayed until Ryan Head arrives at the meeting.
CONSENT AGENDA A. Approved February 5, 2007 Meeting Minutes Matt Ellsworth moved and Norm Holm seconded approval of the February 5, 2007 minutes as presented. The motion was unanimously approved. INFORMATION/DISCUSSION ITEMS A. Growth Issues Carl Miller discussed growth issues and reviewed options for future forecasts regarding population and employment forecasting. This issue will be followed up as an action item at a joint meeting of the Demographic Advisory Committee, Regional Transportation Advisory Committee, Transportation Modeling Advisory Committee, and Interagency Consulting Committee, scheduled for June 27, 2007, 10:00 A.M. at the Meridian Police Department. Carl indicated that there are currently two studies being conducted to assist in the forecasting. One study is the economic forecast through 2040 conducted by John Church. The Growth Driver Study had been delayed because of funding and is now underway. Results are anticipated in late July 2007. There was general discussion, and Charles Trainor indicated that forecasts procedures of other cities have been reviewed. Concerns of monitoring agencies among other issues will be discussed at the June 27 meeting. C. Population Estimates Carl Miller presented a review of the recent population estimates and the American Community Survey (ACS). Carl requested the Committee s input on which household size and vacancy rate factors to use; the more precise 2000 census numbers, or the more current ACS numbers. There was general discussion which concluded that using the COMPASS 2007 estimates, which include the updated building permits based on 2000 census household sizes and vacancy rates, should be used as they are going to be more accurate because they are locally derived. D. Major Activity Centers Ross Dodge reviewed the initial draft of the criteria for Major Activity Centers (MAC), a project initiated by Communities in Motion (CIM). Charles Trainor commented that this information would support more rational way of laying out our transportation system. Major activity centers need to be defined to help create a basis for laying out these systems. A suggestion was made that Ross Dodge contact Jerry Gunstream in Canyon County for the updates done annually to track commercial square footage. E. UPlan Land Use Model Carl Miller introduced the UPlan Land Use Model and noted that it is a complement to the Travel Demand Model for use in projecting future growth, and the impact back and forth between transportation, infrastructure and growth patterns. The growth shown will depend heavily on the Locations close to or far from different variables. Carl requested the Committee consider the variables used in the model. The Committee suggested the following variables: contaminated sites, industrial pollution, air pollution, waste, odors from dairies and feed lots, gravel pit noise, commuting from one area to another, soil type, irrigation, dust, accessibility, and deficiencies in the level of service standards. It was suggested that the variable that prime agricultural soil is a deterrent to growth be reworked. Prime agricultural soil is in fact, a huge attraction for residential development due to the moderate slopes, existing roads and water. Agricultural land could therefore be a primary growth area.
Carl Miller stated that the model needs to be based on real world applicability and staff has conducted a dry run on the model and anticipate integrating some of these variables and sharing the results at the next DAC meeting. B. 2006 Development Monitoring Report Ryan Head presented the 2006 Development Monitoring Report. Ryan asked for the Committee s input and noted that the report has grown over the years. Ryan stated, in answer to Committee questions, that multi-family units include rentals and single family housing such as townhouses, in the measurement. He noted that the permit information received indicated that Nampa is the only area in Canyon County that has any multi-family permits. Ryan further explained that if a unit goes from single family to multi-family it is considered a change of use, however, no change is indicated from multi-family apartments to multi-family condo units. There was general discussion regarding the best way to deal with integrating Star into next year s report and Ryan indicated the easiest way will be to show Star within both counties. Star will have to be contacted to get the additional plat activity. The more difficult it is to collect information, the more concern there is about the quality of the information received. The Committee requested clarification as to whether preliminary plats in the report were actually approved, or just applications received within the year. It was suggested that the individual building departments be contacted to provide better clarification as to the status of the applications. Ryan indicated that individual entities may be requested to review the data in the future. F. Coordination of 2010 Census Carl Miller stated that the Census Bureau is gearing up for the 2010 census. One of the ways this is done is through the local update of census addresses. The Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program invites local government to participate and help create an address list for the census takers to take out for their counts. This is one of the more critical components of their survey. COMPASS would like to present the option of being a participant. COMPASS could be one point of contact in both Ada and Canyon Counties, taking a more systematic approach to participating in the census on a region-wide basis. Carl requested the Committee consider the role of COMPASS in updating addresses. Is being a participant a worthwhile pursuit for COMPASS or would it be more appropriate for each local jurisdiction to obtain their specific data? Charles Trainor stated it would be helpful for the Committee to monitor the progress with their respective elected officials and commissioners. Charles commented that Ross Dodge has been very instrumental in trying to submit electronic updates of information to the Census. Staff has already started this process so it won t be totally unfamiliar. Most of the work will be done in 2008, with review in 2009. There is already an element factored in the COMPASS work program to provide approximately 60 days for this service. The Committee concluded that its role is to share census information with the elected officials. OTHER Next meeting: Thursday, August 16, 2007, 8:30 a.m., COMPASS. ADJOURNMENT There being no further business, the meeting adjourned at 10:08 a.m. T:\FY07\800 System Maintenance\820 Committee Support\DAC\Minutes\051707minutes.doc
ITEM IV-A MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Demographic Advisory Committee Carl Miller, Associate Planner DATE: August 16, 2007 RE: Growth Drivers Survey ACTION REQUESTED: Recommend to the COMPASS Board for approval. BACKGROUND: John Church of Idaho Economics produced a long-term economic forecast of Ada and Canyon Counties. The forecast is based on an econometric model drawing upon historical data and estimated statistical relationships derived from statewide and national economic concepts. STATUS: As an econometric model, the impetus for growth is employment. Traditionally, this has been a strong correlation between employment and population growth. However, several factors have made the employment to population tie weaken. Technological advances, both with transportation and communication, have allowed employees to work from home rather than the employment site. To complement the econometric forecast, COMPASS contracted with Clearwater Research, Inc. to provide survey data of recent homebuyers. This survey also provided information regarding type of employment and retirement population within the area. Self-employment and retirement is critical as they can greatly affect the economic condition and employment of an area. When entrepreneurship is high, additional employment can be created from within, generating a pull factor which attracts employees from other areas and increases population projections. Similarly to self-employment, the amount of retirement population migrating into an area is not likely to be factored into econometric forecasts. Retirement population can have a significant impact on population, household size, and level and type of public services provided to an area. Retirement communities can greatly affected local populations. The attachment is a synopsis of the results of the growth driver survey and specifically the affect of self-employment and retiree immigration on econometric population forecasts. Atachments 1 T:\FY07\600 Projects\647 Regional Growth Issues and Options\Population Forecasts\dacmmo- GrowthDriverSurvey-081607.doc
Item IV-A Attachment 1 Synopsis of the Growth Driver Survey and the Impact of the Self-Employed and Retirement Population on the Econometric Population Forecast The ability to plan a future, functioning transportation network depends on accurate predictions of future usage. A meaningful population and employment forecast drives the ability to make informed decisions about which roadway and transportation improvements will be the most utilized and most effective at relieving congestion. The appropriate rightof-way exacted from development, infrastructure improvements, and budgeting of resources are all dependent on a correct estimation of growth. This brief will describe the need for an updated population forecast, the forecast from Idaho Economics, and a summary of the Synopsis of the Growth Driver Survey and the impact of the self-employed and retirement population in relation to the econometric population forecast. Communities in Motion used a valley-wide population forecast of 825,000 with a horizon year of 2030. Soon this forecast became viewed as too conservative as the population in the area soared above intermediate forecast years, especially in certain area cities. The horizon year of 2030 also did not provide for a long-term planning basis. A revised forecast based on economic models and coupled with an understanding of demographic characteristics and preferences of residents will enable the most reasonable forecasting as possible. John Church of Idaho Economics contracted with COMPASS to provide an employment and population of Ada and Canyon counties with a horizon year of 2040. The forecast is based on an econometric model using historical data and estimated statistical relationships of economic concepts with national economic concepts. The model generates a state forecast from a national forecast and then it is disaggregated to the county level and constrained so that the sum of the economic forecasts for all of Idaho s counties do not exceed total state forecasts. As an econometric model, the impetus for growth is employment. Traditionally, there has been a strong correlation between employment and population growth. However, several factors have made the employment-to-population tie weaken. Technological advances, both with transportation and communication have enabled off-site employment. Also, human life expectancies are increasing providing longevity and additional retirement population. Retirees are expecting long lives with more mobility. The forecasts provided by John Church are employment driven. A cohort-survival component is also used to project natural increase. In consideration of these methods, additional methods of predicting population growth should be used whenever possible to anticipate gaps in techniques. To complement the econometric forecast COMPASS has also contracted with Clearwater Research, Inc., to provide a survey of 800 recent homebuyers to better understand growth drivers in the area. Approximately half of those who had recently purchased houses here had migrated from outside the Treasure Valley. The goal of the Growth Drivers survey was to better understand the factors that are causing population growth in the Treasure Valley. Data was reviewed, tabulated, analyzed, and organized in the Growth Drivers Report. Survey results were also integrated into the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial representation. Local survey data was
then contrasted with comparative national surveys to understand similarities and differences in the local market. Data from the survey will also be implemented into COMPASS land use model (UPlan) for additional precision in allocation of growth. As part of the survey, respondents were asked about employment characteristics including employment type. Almost half (43%) of all respondents indicated that they were employed for wages. Retirees represented 19.6% of the survey and the self-employed were 14.9% of the study. Also, note that approximately 16% of the survey indicated homemaker as employment status. Of those, 9% did not have a full time employee in the household, which would indicate that these households may fall into the category of retired or unemployed. It is difficult due to the survey methodology to determine how many of the homemakers households would fit into the self-employment category. Almost half (42%) of recent homebuyers moved from a location outside the Treasure Valley. Of these 38% listed employed for wages as their employment type, 12% were self-employed, 28% were retired, and 29% had no full time employees in the household. About one in six (16%) moved to this area from outside the valley due to a job related transfer. The median age of homebuyers moving into the Treasure Valley is 50 years old. Employment characteristics were similar to other studies conducted in the area recently but contrasted with national figures. The 2005 Census Bureau Current Population on Geographical Mobility survey indicates that 13.8% of household relocations are because of job transfers or looking for work. Retirement is only 0.5% with the group. It should be noted that in the local study done by Clearwater, respondents were allowed multiple reasons for moving. In the census study, only one reason was accepted. Geographic Area Study Comparison of Employment Type Growth Driver Survey Downtown Boise Housing Study Downtown Boise Mobility Study Treasure Treasure Downtown Boise Valley Valley Date 2007 2004 2003 2005 Type of Survey Telephone Telephone Street Survey in Survey Survey downtown Boise Employed fulltime 44% 45% 57% 56% Self-employed 15% 13% 8% 7% Retired 20% 30.2%. 4% NA 2005 American Community Survey National Mailout/Mailback, Telephone, and Interview Self Employed The level of entrepreneurship in an area can greatly affect the economic condition and employment of an area. When entrepreneurship is high, additional employment can be created from within, generating a pull factor which attracts employees from other areas and increases population above projections. Obviously, areas with low entrepreneurship have an opposite affect and population may shift from the area.
In the survey conducted by Clearwater Research, Inc., the number of persons indicating self-employed as their employment status was 15% of sample. Those reporting selfemployment, approximately ½ indicated additional full time employees in the household. In the local study, the average age of the self-employed is 42.8, with a range between 22-78 years old. Only 3.6% were 65 or older and 4.7% are 24 or under. Local estimates of self-employment exceeded national figures. The national selfemployment rate is approximately 7.5 percent. Nationally, there has been a long-term decline which has leveled off recently. Most (90.9 percent) of the self-employed is currently in nonagricultural industries; in contrast, this proportion was 56.7 percent in the late 1940s. Several reasons could explain the overall decline including 1) overall decline in agricultural employment, 2) disappearance of small farms 3) rise of large farming operations, and 4) likelihood of businesses to incorporate and lose their self-employment status. In a 2003 study it was found that older workers were more likely to be selfemployed than younger workers. The self-employment rate for workers age 65 and older was 19.1 percent, in contrast with only about 2.0 percent for their counterparts age 16 to 19 and age 20 to 24. Younger workers rarely have acquired the capital and managerial skills needed to start a business, whereas many older workers may be able to obtain these resources through their own efforts or through access to available credit. Furthermore, older workers who have retired from wage and salary jobs may become self-employed. Retirement Similar to self-employment, the amount of retirement population in an area is not likely to be factored into econometric forecasts. However, the retirement population can have a significant impact on population, household size, and level and type of public services provided to an area. Retirement communities in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami have had a much different population than if they had not become magnets for large retirement communities. John Church has forecasted a 3.41% increase of population for the age cohorts from 65 and up. This is due to natural increase (persons entering the age cohort minus deaths) and does not consider the immigration of retirees. In the local study by Clearwater, one in five respondents indicated retirement status. This is slightly higher than state and national estimates. The average age was 66.7 and the range of ages was 36 to 90 years old. The state of Idaho has a retirement percentage of 16.7% and nationally the average is 17.3%. Between 1995 and 2010 the proportion of elderly is expected to increase slightly in almost all regions. The aging of the Baby Boom population after 2010 will have a dramatic impact on the growth of the elderly population. By the year 2025, the survivors of the Baby Boom will be between the ages of 61 and 79. The size of the elderly population is projected to increase in all States over the 30 years. The population 65 plus is expected to double in the top seven States with the fastest-growing elderly population. Idaho is expected to have an average annual rate of change for the elderly that ranges at approximately 6 percent, 3 rd highest in the nation.
Conclusion There are a variety of factors that could increase or decrease the actual population of an area in comparison with the econometric forecast. As the forecast is based on employment trends, any disruption to the model could result in drastically different outcomes. Still, the econometric forecast provides one of the most rational and accepted forecasting methods. The amount of self-employment and retirement in the area should be considered with this forecast. Historically, these segments have been attracted to the Treasure Valley. The quality of life offered here is attractive for many people. Several factors could determine whether this quality of life will continue and as such, attract self-employed and retirees. Some issues could promote or restrain this type of growth, including the functionality of the Boise Airport to provide daily service to other metropolitan areas which promote offsite employment, the general low cost of land and housing (compared with other western metropolitan areas), the overall size of the urban area and related transportation efficiencies, air quality, access to natural features including lakes, rivers, and mountains, the viability of high-technology firms such as Micron and Hewlett-Packard, the ability of Boise State to establish itself as a metropolitan university of distinction and produce a talented workforce, and a politically favorable business climate. The Treasure Valley has historically had a very healthy market for both self-employment and for retirees. The ability to continue to provide an attractive climate for these groups may change the future population expected. T:\FY07\600 Projects\647 Regional Growth Issues and Options\Homebuyer Survey\EmploymentInfo.doc
ITEM IV-B MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Demographic Advisory Committee Carl Miller, Associate Planner DATE: August 16, 2007 RE: Population Forecasts ACTION REQUESTED: Recommend population forecasts to COMPASS Board. BACKGROUND: John Church of Idaho Economics was commissioned by COMPASS to provide a long-term population forecast of Ada and Canyon Counties based on an econometric model. STATUS: The population and employment forecasts establish a framework for understanding future development patterns and transportation conditions. Communities in Motion used a valley-wide population forecast of 825,000 with a horizon year of 2030. Soon this forecast became viewed as too conservative as the population in the area soared above intermediate forecast years, especially in certain area cities. A revised forecast based on economic models and coupled with an understanding of demographic characteristics and preferences of residents will enable the most reasonable forecasting as possible. Idaho Economics projects an Idaho annual average compound rate of 1.8% between 2005 and 2040 for a total state population of 2.7 million persons. This is more than double the national rate of 0.8% forecast by Global Insight. Locally, the total population in the Boise MSA is forecast to increase at an annual average compound rate of 2.5% per year for 2005-2040. Ada and Canyon Counties population is projected to increase at annual average rates of 2.7% and 2.1% per year, respectively, over the period 2005-2040. In the year 2040 the total population in the Boise MSA is projected to surpass 1.2 million, with 876,000 persons in Ada County and 344,000 in Canyon County. The 2030 Idaho Economics forecast is 159,300 more than the 2030 CIM forecast. Trend-based forecasts provide a much different view of growth. Extending growth rates that occurred from 2000-2007, the population would exceed 2.2 million, a 1990-2007 growth rate would produce a population of 1.9 million, and a 1980-2007 growth rate would generate a population of 1.16 million. Atachments - 3 T:\FY07\600 Projects\647 Regional Growth Issues and Options\Population Forecasts\dacmmo-Forecasts- 081607.doc
Total Population From Idaho Economics Forecast 1400000 1200000 1219887 1000000 875960 800000 600000 Ada County Canyon County Boise MSA 400000 343927 200000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Absolute Change From Idaho Economics Forecast 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 Ada County Canyon County Boise MSA 40000 20000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Annual Change in County Population Population Migration From Idaho Economics Forecast 25000 20000 15000 Ada County Canyon County 10000 5000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038
Annual Change in County Population Births From Idaho Economics Forecast 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 Canyon County Ada County 4000 2000 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Ada & Canyon Total Elderly Population From Idaho Economics Forecast 4000 3805.870929 3500 3611.59034 3000 2500 2000 85+ Male 85+ Female 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Annual Average Change From Idaho Economics Forecast 0.05 0.045 0.04 0.035 0.03 0.025 Ada County Canyon County Boise MSA 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Total Employment From Idaho Economics Forecast 900000 800000 807307.7986 700000 662671.1126 600000 500000 400000 Ada County Canyon County Boise MSA 300000 200000 144636.6859 100000 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038
Surrounding Counties Population From Idaho Economics Forecast 50000 45000 46660 40000 35000 36230 30000 25000 20000 15000 23420 16640 Elmore County Gem County Owyhee County Payette County 10000 5000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Forecasts Comparison 2500000 2000-2007 Trend 2227200 2000000 1990-2007 Trend 1913900 1500000 John Church Forecast 1219887 1000000 CIM Forecast 1023300 500000 2000-2007 Trend 1990-2007 Trend 1980-2007 Trend CIM Forecast John Church Forecast 0 2000 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Historical Population Estimates of Comparable Areas 4,500,000 4,000,000 4,039,182 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 3,263,497 2,363,634 2,137,565 2,013,267 Denver, CO Las Vegas, NV Phoenix, AZ Portland, OR Reno-Sparks, NV Sacramento, CA Salt Lake City, UT Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Spokane, WA Boise City-Nampa, ID 1,000,000 1,067,722 500,000 569095 446,706 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Forecasts of Comparable Areas 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 2000-2007 Trend 1990-2007 Trend CIM Forecast John Church Forecast Spokane Reno 400000 200000 0 2000 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030