AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278 30-day avg turnover A$m 1.0 Number shares on issue m 36.04 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 221.1 315.4 379.9 451.2 EBIT m 43.9 51.5 64.4 79.3 Reported profit m 22.4 22.1 29.6 34.0 Adjusted profit m 23.4 24.4 29.6 34.0 Gross cashflow m 24.9 26.3 32.2 37.3 CFPS 77.4 71.2 81.8 93.9 CFPS growth % 37.9-8.1 15.0 14.8 PGCFPS x 10.0 10.8 9.4 8.2 PGCFPS rel x 0.80 0.97 0.92 0.89 EPS adj 72.7 66.1 75.3 85.7 EPS adj growth % 43.1-9.1 13.9 13.8 PER adj x 10.6 11.7 10.2 9.0 PER rel x 0.48 0.61 0.62 0.64 Total DPS 41.8 43.3 43.8 49.8 Total div yield % 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.5 Franking % 100 100 100 100 ROA % 12.5 9.9 9.4 9.3 ROE % 21.9 16.6 16.9 17.3 EV/EBITDA x 12.8 11.4 9.2 7.5 Net debt/equity % 189.1 219.0 268.0 300.7 P/BV x 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 SIV AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 21 March 2017 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Capital raising Event SIV announced a fully underwritten pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer at $7.00 per share to raise ~$21m. Impact Entitlement offer: SIV will undertake a fully underwritten 1-for-12 accelerated pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer at $7.00 per share to raise ~$21m. This is ~3m new shares or ~8.3% of shares on issue. The issue price of $7.00 is a 9.2% discount to TERP and 9.9% discount to last close of $7.77 on 20 March. The English Group (Chairman Allan English and controlled entities including the English Foundation) accounts for 24.8% of SIV shares and will not be participating. To support ongoing growth The raising is to support SIV s ongoing growth in its asset base and maintain an appropriate mix of funding sources. The DRP is suspended for the 1H17 interim dividend. and as such is dilutive: This raising is not to support new incremental growth initiatives. Rather, it is necessary to fund earnings growth already factored in to our and consensus forecasts. We highlighted funding capacity as a risk in our 1H17 result note in February but did not anticipate an equity raising so soon thereafter. See our note - In the 2H club. Additional colour on arrears: SIV provided a chart in its pack showing a reduction in GoGetta arrears following changes made in the broker channel in Oct-16. While prima facie promising, we think it too early to call this a stepchange or trend given (1) limited data history, and (2) it is difficult to disentangle natural loss curves trends from the broker channel changes implemented by SIV. We will continue to monitor progress closely. Guidance maintained: SIV continue to expect reported NPAT $21-23m and underlying $23-25m in FY17. Earnings and target price revision NPAT is unchanged and we update our share count for the raising. We also turn off the DRP for 1H17. This leads to FY17E EPS -1.9% and FY18E -7.4% (full-year impact). PT from $6.81 to $6.68 per share on lower EPS. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$6.68 based on a PER methodology. Catalyst: FY17 result in August and any update on funding in the interim. Action and recommendation Today s announced capital raising reinforces our view around SIV s cash flow and funding of future earnings growth. As discussed in our 1H17 result note, the proposed new warehouse facility will arrive just in time. Even with today s raising we continue to forecast SIV to hit its current debt facility limit in 1H18. Thus our view is unchanged that any delay in achieving this outcome would put a question mark over SIV s ability to deliver our earnings growth expectations without increasing its corporate debt facility or raising additional equity capital beyond the $21m announced today. With SIV de-rating materially in recent months to its current PER of 11.5x (based on TERP), we believe these headwinds are largely factored in. Retain Neutral. Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.
SilverChef (SIV:$7.71) 21-Mar-17 Interim results 1H/16A 2H/16A 1H/17A 2H/17E Profit & Loss 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue 100.7 120.4 137.8 177.6 Revenue $m 221.1 315.4 379.9 451.2 EBITDA $m 22.3 23.1 17.1 36.2 EBITDA $m 45.5 53.3 67.0 82.6 Depreciation $m 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 Depreciation $m 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.3 Amortisation of intangibles $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amortisation of intangibles $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT $m 21.6 22.3 16.3 35.2 EBIT $m 43.9 51.5 64.4 79.3 Net Interest expense $m 5.9 5.2 6.4 10.1 Net interest expense $m 11.1 16.6 22.2 30.8 Pre-Tax Profit $m 15.7 17.1 9.8 25.1 Pre-Tax Profit $m 32.8 34.9 42.3 48.6 Tax Expense $m 4.5 5.0 3.0 7.5 Tax Expense $m 9.5 10.5 12.7 14.6 Net Profit $m 11.3 12.1 6.9 17.6 Net Profit $m 23.4 24.4 29.6 34.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Outside equity interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Abn/Extra $m -1.0 0.0-2.3 0.0 Net Abnormals/Extra. $m -1.0-2.3 0.0 0.0 Reported Earnings $m 10.3 12.1 4.6 17.6 Reported Earnings $m 22.4 22.1 29.6 34.0 Adjusted Earnings $m 11.3 12.1 6.9 17.6 Adjusted Earnings $m 23.4 24.4 29.6 34.0 Gross Cashflow $m 11.5 16.1 5.4 21.9 Gross Cashflow $m 27.6 27.3 34.4 39.2 EPS (Adj/dil) c 36.0 37.1 19.3 46.8 EPS (adj/diluted) c 73.1 66.8 75.3 85.7 EPS growth % 50.1 35.6-46.4 26.1 EPS growth % 42.2-8.7 12.8 13.8 CFPS c 36.8 49.4 15.1 58.4 PE (adj) x 10.5 11.5 10.2 9.0 CFPS Growth % 86.7 83.0-58.9 18.2 CFPS c 85.1 74.6 87.5 98.7 EBITDA/Sales % 22.2 19.2 12.4 20.4 CFPS Growth % 79.9-12.3 17.3 12.8 EBIT/Sales % 21.4 18.6 11.8 19.8 PGCFPS x 9.1 10.3 8.8 7.8 Earnings Split % 48.2 51.8 28.2 71.8 DPS c 42.0 43.3 43.8 49.8 Revenue Growth % 22.3 35.7 36.8 47.6 Yield % 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.5 EBIT Growth % 54.9 38.9-24.7 57.5 Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Profit and Loss ratios 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Cashflow Analysis 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue Growth % 29.3 42.7 20.4 18.8 EBIT Growth % 46.3 17.1 25.2 23.1 Pre-tax Profit $m 32.8 34.9 42.3 48.6 EBITDA/Sales % 20.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 Depreciation & Amortisation $m 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.3 EBIT/Sales % 19.9 16.3 17.0 17.6 Tax Paid $m -6.7-9.5-10.5-12.7 Effective tax rate % 28.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 Gross cashflow $m 27.6 27.3 34.4 39.2 Payout ratio % 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Changes in working capital $m -17.4 2.3 1.6 1.7 EV/EBIT x 11.3 12.5 12.4 11.7 Other $m 109.6 119.4 152.0 188.1 EV/EBITDA x 10.9 12.1 11.9 11.2 Operating Cashflow $m 119.7 149.0 187.9 229.0 EV/Sales x 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 Acquisitions $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex - Plant & Equip. $m -305.0-351.0-390.2-427.4 Balance sheet ratios Asset Sales $m 58.3 70.2 78.0 85.5 ROE % 21.9 16.6 16.9 17.3 Other $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROA % 12.6 10.0 9.4 9.4 Investing cashflow $m -246.7-280.8-312.1-342.0 ROFE % 14.7 11.4 10.6 10.5 Dividend (ordinary) $m -10.9-14.3-13.5-16.1 Net Debt $m 244.4 362.7 496.7 622.1 Equity raised $m 35.4 28.5 3.7 3.7 Net Debt/Equity % 189.1 219.0 268.0 300.7 Other $m -4.0-0.7 0.0 0.0 Interest Cover x 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.6 Financing cashflow $m 20.5 13.5-9.8-12.4 Price/NTA x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NTA per share $ 3.59 4.16 4.62 5.11 Net Change in cash/debt $m -106.5-118.3-134.1-125.4 EFPOWA m 32.5 36.6 39.3 39.7 Historical performance 2015A 2016A Balance Sheet 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Cash $m 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Revenue $m 171.0 221.1 Receivables $m 36.8 52.5 63.2 75.1 EBITDA $m 31.7 45.5 Inventories $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation/Amortisation $m 1.6 1.5 Investments $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT $m 30.0 43.9 Property, plant & equipment $m 335.4 491.6 647.0 795.7 Net interest expense $m 7.7 11.1 Intangibles $m 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Pre-Tax Profit $m 22.3 32.8 Other Assets $m 52.1 52.1 52.1 52.1 Tax Expense $m 6.8 9.5 Total Assets $m 433.0 605.0 771.1 931.7 Net Profit $m 15.5 23.4 Payables $m 48.3 66.3 78.6 92.2 Net Abn/Extra $m 0.0-1.0 Short Term Debt $m 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Long Term Debt $m 249.6 367.9 501.9 627.3 EPS (adj/dil) c 51.4 73.1 Other Liabilities $m 5.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 EPS growth % 26.4 42.2 Total Liabilities $m 303.8 439.4 585.8 724.8 Ordinary DPS c 36.0 42.0 Shareholders Funds $m 129.2 165.6 185.3 206.9 EBITDA/Sales % 18.5 20.6 Minority Interests $m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT/Sales % 17.6 19.9 Total Shareholders Equity $m 129.2 165.6 185.3 206.9 ROE % 20.5 21.9 ROFE % 15.0 14.7 Total Funds employed $m 433.0 605.0 771.1 931.7 EFPOWA m 29.9 32.5 Source: Company information, Macquarie Research, March 2017. Closing price is TERP. 21 March 2017 2
Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong negative view on. The strongest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 1753/1897 Global rank in Capital Goods % of BUY recommendations 50% (2/4) Number of Price Target downgrades 3 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Capital Goods) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. -0.3-1.3-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. -1.1-1.3-3.0-2.0-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Dividend Yield NTM Price to Cash NTM Price to Cash FY1 PEG Ratio Inverted Change in Cash FY0 Turnover(USD) 125 Day Turnover (USD) 20 Day Turnover (USD) 250 Day Negatives Positives -33% -33% -39% -40% 38% 37% 36% 35% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score -1.33-0.48 0.07 1.05-0.29-0.68-0.51-0.92-1.26-0.98-0.54 Percentile relative to sector(/1897) Percentile relative to market(/421) 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 21 March 2017 3
Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60 100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 50.72% 45.57% 42.28% 60.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.90% 33.97% 43.04% 50.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.30% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) SIV AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2017 12-month target price methodology SIV AU: A$6.68 based on a PER methodology Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 21-Feb-2017 SIV AU Neutral A$6.81 18-Nov-2016 SIV AU Neutral A$10.26 26-Aug-2016 SIV AU Neutral A$9.82 22-Jul-2016 SIV AU Neutral A$9.53 28-Mar-2016 SIV AU Outperform A$10.49 24-Feb-2016 SIV AU Outperform A$10.00 24-Aug-2015 SIV AU Neutral A$8.18 21-Feb-2015 SIV AU Neutral A$7.98 16-Oct-2014 SIV AU Neutral A$6.04 25-Aug-2014 SIV AU Neutral A$6.13 Target price risk disclosures: SIV AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views 21 March 2017 4
This publication was disseminated on 21 March 2017 at 10:29 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL 238947, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 41 002 574 923 AFSL 237504 ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures Macquarie Group Macquarie Group 21 March 2017 5