Oz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst

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1 AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) month target A$ month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m 2,744 3-day avg turnover A$m 2.7 Number shares on issue m 32.2 Investment fundamentals Year end 3 Dec 25A 26E 27E 28E Revenue m EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x OZL AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 27 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 3 January 27 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Raises copper production outlook Event OZL s 4QCY6 production result was better than we had expected with beats on copper and gold production. A revision of the mine plan at Prominent Hill has materially improved the copper production outlook for 28 and 29. Impact Headline production better than expected: OZL produced 29.8kt of copper and 32.2koz of gold in concentrate in the 4QCY6, 6% and 26% higher, respectively, than we were forecasting. C cash costs of US$.78/lb were in line with our forecasts, which was somewhat disappointing, given the strong production result. Material change to Prominent Hill guidance: After outlining an updated plan for Prominent Hill late last year, OZL has now materially altered the nearterm outlook for the project. A focus on copper ore and a change in the open pit plan is expected to see Prominent Hill maintain a copper production rate close to ktpa through to CY9, compared to previous guidance, which assumed production would fall to ~7kt in CY9. Upgrading copper but cutting gold and raising costs: We lift our copper production forecast at Prominent Hill by 4% in CY7, 3% in CY8 and 53% in CY9 to match guidance. The drive to produce more copper sees our gold production forecasts fall -2% over the next three years, while our AISC assumptions rise 32% and % for CY7 and CY8. Earnings and target price revision Incorporating the 4QCY7 production result and updated three-year production guidance has translated to mixed changes to our earnings forecasts. We cut our CY6 forecast by 4% while our CY7 forecast falls 2%. Our CY8 and CY9 earnings forecast rises off a low and loss-making base respectively. Factoring in the longer mine life at Prominent Hill sees our price target rise % to $9.3. Price catalyst 2-month price target: A$9.3 based on a 5/5 Blend of NPV and 6.x EV/Ebitda methodology. Catalyst: OZL is set to release its CY6 full-year earnings result on 23 February. The Carrapateena Feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of QCY7. Action and recommendation Maintain Neutral: OZL s 4QCY6 production result was better than we had expected, with both copper and gold production coming in ahead of our estimates. However, we have cut CY6 earnings estimate by 4% to reflect higher non-cash depreciation and inventory charges. OZL has materially altered its medium-term guidance for Prominent Hill, with more copper and less gold expected over the next three years. A clear plan for Prominent Hill has been established and we expect the focus to shift back to Carrapateena, on which a feasibility study is expected to be completed in the next few months. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

2 4QCY6 production result delivered a beat OZL s 4QCY6 production result was solid, with copper production of 29.8kt coming in 6% higher than we had expected. Gold production delivered a significant beat, however this did not flow through to cash costs, which were broadly in line with our expectations. Net cash of A$656m was 5% higher than we had forecast. Fig 4QCY6 production beats for copper and gold but not costs Quarterly Result Macq Actual Variance Copper (kt) % Gold (koz) % C Cash costs (US$/lb) (%) Cash (A$m) % Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 OZL s Prominent Hill produced 29.8kt of copper and 32.2koz of gold in concentrate in the 4QFY6, 6% and 26% higher than we had forecast. Higher mill throughput drove the beat in copper production while the stronger gold output was boosted by higher average grades. Concentrate shipments were broadly in line with forecast and slightly lower than production. OZL reported C costs of US$.78/lb and C2 costs of US$.96/lb, both broadly in line with our expectations. We note that the in-line cost result was surprising, given the production beat, higher by-product credit revenue and lower material moved in the open pit, but reflects the fixed-cost nature of the open pit contract. Fig 2 Higher mill throughput and better grades key to production beat Prominent Hill key statistics Macq Actual Variance Material Moved (kt) 8,857 6,77 (24%) Waste Moved (kt) 5,6 2,85 (43%) Open Pit Ore Mined (kt) 3,85 3,99 2% Underground Ore Mined (kt) % Ore Milled (kt) 2,2 2,324 6% Copper grade (%).45%.46% % Gold grade (g/t) % Copper concentrate produced (kt) % Copper concentrate sold (kt) % C cash costs (US$/lb) (%) C2 cash costs (US$/lb) % C3 cash costs (US$/lb) % Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Raises medium-term copper but cuts gold production guidance Prominent Hill production guidance for CY7 has been left unchanged, however OZL has upgraded CY8 and CY9 copper production by 6% and 36% respectively as copper ore is prioritised. As a result, gold production guidance is cut by 8%, 4% and 9% for CY7, CY8 and CY9 respectively. Cost guidance for CY7 is higher than expected, largely due to lower gold byproduct credits. Fig 3 Copper guidance upgraded at the expense of gold output at Prominent Hill Copper (kt) CY7e CY8e CY9e Gold (koz) CY7e CY8e CY9e Low Low High High Avg 9 7 Avg Low Low High 5 High Avg Avg Low % 6% 38% Low (8%) (4%) (2%) High % 5% 33% High (7%) (3%) (9%) Avg % 6% 36% Avg (8%) (4%) (9%) Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 3 January 27 2

3 Significant changes to our production forecasts We have made a number of changes to our production forecasts for Prominent Hill after incorporating the changes to guidance as well as the updated reserve and resource statement released late last year. Our copper production forecast rises 4% in CY7 and 3% in CY8 and an impressive 53% in CY9 to match guidance. For CY2 and beyond, we make material upgrades to our forecasts, extending the life of the project by three years from 222 to 225. OZL has indicated that Prominent Hill could continue until , although we believe this assumes some resource to reserve conversion. Fig 4 Upgrading copper production at Prominent Hill Fig 5 Cutting near-term gold output Copper production (kt) - old Copper production (kt) - new Gold production (koz) - old Gold production (koz) - new CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e CY2e CY22e CY23e CY24e CY25e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e CY2e CY22e CY23e CY24e CY25e Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 The higher copper and lower gold production for the next three years has translated to a significant lift in our forecast cash costs and ASIC for Prominent Hill. We lift our CY7 AISC assumption by 32% and our CY8 estimate by %. We note that our CY C7 cash cost and AISC forecasts of US$.86/lb and US$.3/lb are within company guidance ranges. Fig 6 Higher near-term costs due to lower by-product credits Y/E December CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e CY2e Cash costs (US$/lb) - old Cash costs (US$/lb) - new Change % 56% 7% 23% (5%) (3%) AISC (US$/lb) - old AISC (US$/lb) - new Change (3%) 32% % % (4%) (5%) Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Mixed changes earnings but upgrading price target Incorporating the 4QCY7 production result and updated three-year production guidance has translated to mixed changes to our earnings forecasts. We cut our CY6 forecast by 4%, while our CY7 forecast falls 2%. Our CY8 and CY9 earnings rise off a low and loss making base respectively. Factoring in the longer mine life at Prominent Hill sees our price target rise % to $9.3. Fig 7 Mixed changes to earnings but price target upgraded Y/E December CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e Price Target Net profit (A$m) - old Net profit (A$m) - new Change (4%) (2%) nm nm 76% % Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 3 January 27 3

4 Sep 6 Apr 7 Nov 7 Jun 8 Jan 9 Aug 9 Mar 2 Oct 2 May 2 Dec 2 Jul 22 Feb 23 Sep 23 Apr 24 Nov 24 Jun 25 Jan 26 Aug 26 Mar 27 Oct 27 May 28 Dec 28 Jul 29 Feb 3 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 8 Prominent Hill production forecasts Fig 9 Carrapateena production forecasts Copper (kt) Gold (koz) Copper (kt) Gold (koz) Cash costs (US$/lb) All in CC (US$/lb) Cash costs (US$/lb) All in CC (US$/lb) Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Fig OZL cash build vs market cap Fig OZL cash balance comparison 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Net cash / (debt) (A$m) - Macq Market Cap (A$m), Net cash / (debt) (A$m) - Macq Net cash / (debt) (A$m) Spot 2,5 6 2,,5, Dec 2 Sep 2 Jun 2 Mar 2 Dec 9 Sep 9 Jun 9 Mar 9 Dec 8 Sep 8 Jun 8 Mar 8 Dec 7 Sep 7 Jun 7 Mar 7 Dec 6 Sep 6 Source: OZL, Macquarie December, January 27 Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Fig 2 OZL earnings and Ebitda outlook Fig 3 OZL NPV breakdown 7 Ebitda (A$m) Underlying profit (A$m) 6 5 Cash 2% Other 6% Prominent Hill 45% () Carrapateena 29% Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 3 January 27 4

5 Fig 4 OZL summary financials OZ Minerals ASX: OZL Price: (A$ps) 9.8 Year end: Dec Rating: Neutral Up/dn TSR Mkt cap: (A$m) 2,72 Diluted shares (m) Target: 9.3 2% 5% ASSUMPTIONS CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e ATTRIBUTABLE MINE OUTPUT CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e Exchange Rate A$/US$ Copper Production (kt) Copper (US$/lb) Prominent Hill kt Gold (US$/oz),4,266,6,248,26,375,363,4 Carrapateena kt Total copper production kt RATIO ANALYSIS CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e Gold Production (koz) Diluted share capital m Prominent Hill koz EPS (diluted and pre sig. items) A Carrapateena koz P/E x -44.x 9.9x 2.2x 23.6x 2.9x 4.9x 26.4x.7x Total gold production koz CFPS A Cash costs (US$/lb) P/CF x 5.4x 2.4x 5.8x 7.7x 7.x.x 7.x 4.5x Prominent Hill (US$/lb) DPS Carapateena (US$/lb) Dividend yield % 2.2%.% 2.2% 2.% 2.% 2.2%.5% 4.8% Average cash costs (US$/lb) Franking Level % % % % % % % % % AISC (US$/lb) Book value per share x Prominent Hill (US$/lb) P/Book value x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.2x.x Carrapateena (US$/lb) R.O.E. (pre sig items) % -3% 2% 6% 4% 6% % 4% 9% Average AISC (US$/lb) R.O.A. (pre sig items) % -4% 2% 7% 6% 6% % 4% 9% Interest Cover x 4.7x -2.5x -64.4x -7.7x -3.x -2.3x -25.5x -42.7x OPERATIONAL OUTLOOK EBITDA per share A$ps (kt) Prominent Hill Carrapateena Cash costs (US$/lb) EV/EBITDA x 2.3x 7.3x 4.6x 5.6x 5.x 8.x 6.x 3.2x 6. 2 Free cash flow yeild EARNINGS % (8%) CY3 (3%) CY4 3% CY5 7% CY6e (%) CY7e (7%) CY8e (2%) CY9e 6% CY2e 4. Sales Revenue A$m ,36 2. Other Revenue A$m 2 Total Revenue A$m ,36. Operating Costs A$m (46) (395) (34) (385) (4) (469) (495) (678) 8. Operational EBITDA A$m Exploration Expense/Write-offs A$m (75) (55) (4) (4) (2) (5) (5) (5) 4. Corporate & Other Costs A$m (49) (4) (54) (3) (2) (2) (2) (22) EBITDA A$m D&A A$m (29) (296) (285) (2) (248) (274) (276) (342). EBIT A$m (3) Net Interest A$m Significant Items A$m (232) 8 (26) RESERVES AND RESOURCES Profit Before Tax A$m (328) Copper Tax Expense A$m 33 (8) (6) (47) (49) (9) (38) (87) Reserves Mt Cu (%) kt Minorities A$m Prominent Hill 75.99% 74 Reported NPAT A$m (294) Carrapateena 7.86%,3 Significant Items A$m (232) 8 (26) Total 45.4% 2,4 Adjusted NPAT A$m (63) Copper Resources Mt Cu (%) kt CASHFLOW CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e Prominent Hill 73.2%,77 Net Profit A$m (63) Carrapateena 33.5% 2,8 Interest/Tax/D&A A$m Khamsin.% Working Capital/other A$m 48 (23) () (6) 5 5 (7) (8) Total 36.23% 3,778 Net Operating Cashflow A$m Gold Capex A$m (39) (326) (25) (43) (388) (454) (44) (6) Reserves Mt Au (g/t) koz Investments A$m Prominent Hill 75.59,42 Sale of PPE and Other A$m 5 (24) Carrapateena 7.76,7 Free cash flow A$m (2) (89) (3) (8) (48) 446 Total ,2 Dividends Paid A$m (9) (6) (8) (6) (69) (63) (6) (66) Gold Debt A$m Resources Mt Au (g/t) koz Equity Issuance A$m () (3) (3) Prominent Hill ,66 Other A$m Carrapateena ,66 Net Financing Cashflow A$m (85) (57) (8) (92) (69) (63) (6) (66) Khamsin. Net change in cash A$m (295) (46) (7) (244) (8) 38 Total ,32 BALANCE SHEET CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6e CY7e CY8e CY9e CY2e EQUITY DCF VALUATION Spot prices Macqaurie forecasts Cash A$m Projects A$m A$ps A$m A$ps PP&E & Mine Development A$m,35,332,262,,24,42,584,42 Prominent Hill, , Other A$m ,25,54 Prominent Hill Resources Total Assets A$m 2,57 2,49 2,566 2,689 2,767 2,69 3,68 3,52 Carrapateena Debt A$m Carrapateena Resources Total Liabilities A$m Listed investments Total Net Assets / Equity A$m 2,328 2,249 2,344 2,37 2,38 2,34 2,385 2,554 Forwards 2. (4) (.4) Net Debt / (Cash) A$m (364) (29) (553) (656) (585) (34) (234) (64) Corporate (38) (.46) (38) (.46) Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % (9%) (%) (3%) (39%) (33%) (7%) (%) (32%) Net cash (debt) Gearing (net debt/equity) % (6%) (%) (24%) (28%) (25%) (5%) (%) (24%) Net Equity Value (@ 9.% WACC) 2, , Price Target (5/5 Blend of 6.x EV/Ebitda and NPV) (x NPV) 9.3 Source: OZL, Macquarie Research, January 27 3 January 27 5

6 Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on. The strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had strong medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. /554 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 3% (5/6) Number of Price Target downgrades Number of Price Target upgrades 2 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. 2.3 Alumina Sandfire Resources.5.5 Alumina Sandfire Resources Western Areas Newcrest Mining.2. Western Areas Newcrest Mining Independence Group NL -.2 Independence Group NL % -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% % Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Alumina Sandfire Resources Western Areas Newcrest Mining Independence Group NL Alumina Sandfire Resources Western Areas Newcrest Mining Independence Group NL % -5% % 5% % Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Price to Cash FY Price to Sales LTM EV/EBITDA (NTM) Sales to EV FY Earnings Certainty (NTM) DPS Growth 5yr Historic Merton Score Turnover(USD) 25 Day Negatives Positives -25% -27% -29% -2% 3% 27% 27% 32% -4% -2% % 2% 4% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/554) Percentile relative to market(/423) 5 5 Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 3 January 27 6

7 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 2 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+% Neutral expected return from -% to +% Underperform expected return <-% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+% Neutral expected return from -% to +% Underperform expected return <-% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 5 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 2 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 3 December 26 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 5.72% 45.57% 42.28% 6.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.7% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.9% 33.97% 43.4% 5.% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.5% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 5.3%.39% 7.6% 2.9%.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) OZL AU vs Small Ordinaries, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, January 27 2-month target price methodology OZL AU: A$9.3 based on a 5/5 Blend of NPV and 6.x EV/Ebitda methodology Company-specific disclosures: OZL AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control % or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. MACQUARIE CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of OZ Minerals Ltd in the past 24 months, for which it received compensation. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 2-Dec-26 OZL AU Neutral A$8.4 2-Nov-26 OZL AU Outperform A$9.2 7-Nov-26 OZL AU Neutral A$7.2 2-Oct-26 OZL AU Underperform A$5. 2-Sep-26 OZL AU Underperform A$5.2 -Aug-26 OZL AU Underperform A$5.5 9-Jul-26 OZL AU Underperform A$5. 6-Jul-26 OZL AU Underperform A$5.3 5-Jun-26 OZL AU Underperform A$4.6 9-May-26 OZL AU Underperform A$4.7 2-Apr-26 OZL AU Underperform A$4.6 9-Apr-26 OZL AU Underperform A$4.3 5-Mar-26 OZL AU Underperform A$ Feb-26 OZL AU Neutral A$4.8 -Feb-26 OZL AU Neutral A$4.6 2-Jan-26 OZL AU Neutral A$4.3 4-Dec-25 OZL AU Underperform A$4. 23-Oct-25 OZL AU Outperform A$6. 6-Oct-25 OZL AU Outperform A$ Sep-25 OZL AU Outperform A$ Jul-25 OZL AU Outperform A$4.3 3 January 27 7

8 This publication was disseminated on 3 January 27 at 8:38 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management 6-Jul-25 OZL AU Outperform A$4.4 3-May-25 OZL AU Outperform A$5. 2-Mar-25 OZL AU Outperform A$5.3 -Feb-25 OZL AU Neutral A$ Jan-25 OZL AU Outperform A$4.9 5-Jan-25 OZL AU Outperform A$4. 4-Oct-24 OZL AU Neutral A$4. 3-Jun-24 OZL AU Underperform A$3.8 6-May-24 OZL AU Outperform A$4.4 Target price risk disclosures: OZL AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. 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