Rio Tinto. Expect more cash back in RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
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- Lee Gray
- 5 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform Price (at 8:37, 13 Feb 217 GMT) A$68.32/ Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$72.24/ month target A$79./ month TSR % Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials 3-day avg turnover A$m 15.4 Combined market cap US$m 79,827 Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 216A 217E 218E 219E Revenue m 35,318 37,722 33,879 35,44 EBIT m 7,848 9,86 6,555 6,313 Reported profit m 4,617 6,457 4,497 4,22 Adjusted profit m 5,1 6,457 4,497 4,22 Gross cashflow m 1,53 11,429 9,12 9,349 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj Aus Aó EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total DPS Aus Aó Total DPS Uk UKp Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x RIO AU vs ASX 1, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 217 (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in AUD) 14 February 217 Expect more cash back in 217 Event We attended a sell-side analyst round-table with CFO Chris Lynch. The discussion focused on RIO s organic growth options, detailing the US$5.bn productivity target and potential for further capital management given current iron-ore price strength. Impact Productivity and cost-out targets: RIO first announced its US$5.bn productivity target at its Capital Market Day in November. The gains are expected to be made over the next five years, culminating with an annualised run-rate of US$1.5bn by CY21. The majority of the productivity gains appear to lie in filling latent capacity, with assets that lag utilisation averages a key focus of the programme. The US$2.bn cost-out target looks comfortably achievable with US$1.6bn already delivered, although Chris Lynch noted that most of the low-hanging fruit had been picked. Acquisitions and new project approvals look unlikely in the near term: CFO Chris Lynch re-iterated sentiments from the CY16 result that while the company is keen to acquire copper assets, it struggles to see a deal getting done while retaining its value over volume mantra. Management also indicated that the capex guidance over the next three years is fairly fixed. More buy-backs and dividends: In the absence of acquisitions and new project approvals, the strong cash flow being generated is likely to either further strengthen the balance sheet or be returned to shareholders. With gearing fast heading towards 1%, we believe shareholders should expect the large proportion of the surplus cash generated in 217 to be returned, through a combination of dividends, buy-backs and potentially special dividends. Earnings and target price revision No change. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$79. based on a 5/5 Blend 6.5x EV/Ebitda and NPV methodology. Catalyst: RIO is set to release its 216 Annual Report on 2 March and host its UK AGM on 12 April. 1QCY17 production will be released on 19 April and Australian AGM on 4 May. Action and recommendation Maintain Outperform: CFO Chris Lynch reiterated there are only three destinations for RIO s cash generation capital expenditure, strengthening the balance sheet, or shareholder returns. The three-year capital expenditure forecast appears fairly fixed and with gearing heading towards 1%, we expect to see increased cash returns to shareholders over the course of 217. A lift in the US$.5bn share buy-back post the sale of Coal & Allied looks likely, with dividend payouts expected to be towards the upper end of the payout range. At spot prices, RIO is trading on a CY17 P/E of 7.4x, a free cash flow yield of 18% and a dividend yield of 8%. Please refer to page 6 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Sell-side round table discussion We attended a sell-side analyst round table with CFO Chris Lynch. The discussion focused on RIO s growth options, detailing the US$5.bn productivity target and potential for further capital management given current iron-ore price strength. The uncertainty around Grasberg was also discussed, although the outcome appears to be largely in the hands of Freeport-McMoran Copper (FCX US, US$15.8, Neutral, TP: US$17., Anthony Young). Cost-out and productivity RIO s US$2.bn cost-out target over CY16/CY17 appears well in hand. Chris Lynch reiterated commentary at the CY16 result that US$1.6bn of the target had already been achieved, although much of the easier targets have been taken. We believe there is upside risk to the US$2.bn costout target given there is only US$.4bn remaining to deliver, although we suspect the overshoot on the cost target is limited to ~1%. RIO first announced its US$5.bn productivity target at its Capital Market Day in November. The gains are expected to be made over the next five years with an annualised run-rate of US$1.5bn in CY21. The majority of the productivity gains appear to lie in filling latent capacity, with assets that lag utilisation averages a key focus of the programme. Moving the marketing and other shared functions to Singapore appears to be a major first step in the programme, although how these gains are measured and quantified remains to be seen. Capex looks fixed for next three years RIO is expecting to lift capex from CY16 to US$5.bn for CY17 and US$5.5bn for CY18 and CY19. With the majority of the capital expenditure to be spend on Oyu Tolgoi, Amrun and sustaining capital projects, mainly in iron-ore, it appears that the capital expenditure budgets are largely inflexible both to the upside and downside. We note that our forecasts for capital expenditure are broadly in line with the guidance. Fig 1 Capex forecast split sustaining and growth Fig 2 Capex split by division Sustaining (US$m) Growth (US$m) Iron Ore (US$m) Copper & Diamonds (US$m) Aluminium (US$m) Energy & Minerals (US$m) CY16a CY17e CY18e CY19e Grasberg uncertainty remains CY16a CY17e CY18e CY19e RIO s share of capex for Grasberg is around US$2mpa for the next three years. RIO holds an effective streaming deal over 4% of Grasberg from 221. Ownership uncertainty remains and Chris Lynch noted that the level of uncertainty around project ownership and future export rights needs be reduced before the company would look to commit further capital beyond current plans. We note that our forecasts do not include any production from Grasberg in CY February 217 2
3 Fig 3 RIO net debt and gearing outlook Fig 4 RIO dividend coverage Net Debt/ (Cash) (US$m) Net Gearing (%) Free Cash Flow (US$m) Dividend (US$m) , 8, 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1, 9, 8, 7, Dividend Cover (x) %. Fig 5 RIO capex forecasts Fig 6 RIO EBITDA margin by division Sustaining capex (US$m) Growth capex (US$m) 6.% Ebitda margin (next 1 years) 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Iron Ore Copper & Diamonds Energy & Minerals Aluminium Fig 7 RIO Pilbara iron-ore production and shipments Fig 8 RIO NPV by division 4 Production (mt)- 1% Shipments (mt)- 1% RIO NPV by division Energy & Minerals 9% Aluminium 13% Copper & Diamonds 19% Iron Ore 59% CY13a CY14a CY15a CY16a CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e 14 February 217 3
4 Fig 9 RIO summary financials ASX: RIO Price: (A$ps) Year end: Dec Rating: Outperform Up/dn TSR LSE: RIO Price: ( ps) Diluted shares (m) 1,786 ASX Target: % 19% Mkt cap: (US$m) 82,846 LSE Target: % 26% ASSUMPTIONS CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e ASSUMPTIONS CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e Exchange Rate A$/US$ Commodity prices Exchange Rate C$/US$ Iron-ore (US$/t) Exchange Rate USDZAR Hard coking coal (US$/t) RATIO ANALYSIS CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e Thermal coal (US$/t) Diluted share capital m 1,859 1,825 1,797 1,786 1,786 1,786 1,786 Copper (US$/lb) EPS (underlying, undiluted) US Alumina (US$/t) P/E x 1.4x 21.x 18.4x 14.4x 2.7x 22.2x 14.6x Aluminium (US$/lb) CFPS US P/CF x 6.8x 1.1x 1.6x 8.3x 1.4x 1.1x 7.8x Production by commodity DPS US Iron-ore (1% Basis) Dividend yield % 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 4.1% 2.9% 2.7% 4.1% Pilbara (mt) Franking Level % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Iron Ore Company of Canada (mt) Book value per share US$ps Iron-ore (1%) P/Book value x 1.8x 2.2x 2.x 2.x 1.9x 1.9x 1.7x Iron-ore (RIO Reported Share) R.O.E. (pre sig items) % 12% -4% 1% 13% 9% 8% 12% Pilbara (mt) R.O.A. (pre sig items) % 14% 9% 1% 12% 9% 8% 1% Iron Ore Company of Canada (mt) Interest Cover x 25.3x 11.4x 8.5x 17.3x 13.5x 13.3x 17.6x Iron-ore (RIO Reported Share) EBITDA per share US$ps Aluminium (RIO Share) EV/EBITDA x 4.9x 7.7x 6.9x 5.5x 6.9x 6.7x 5.4x Bauxite (mt) FCF Yield % 9% 6% 8% 11% 4% 4% 1% Alumina (mt) EARNINGS CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e Aluminium (mt) Revenue US$m 47,664 34,857 33,781 34,85 31,12 32,676 36,323 Copper (RIO Share) Operating Costs US$m (3,376) (24,192) (21,88) (21,693) (21,15) (22,473) (23,913) Mined Copper (kt) Operational EBITDA US$m 17,288 1,665 11,973 13,112 9,997 1,23 12,41 Refined Copper (kt) Corporate Costs & EAU Adjustments US$m 2,377 1,956 1,537 2,916 2,777 2,764 2,844 Total Copper (mt) Underlying Ebitda US$m 19,665 12,621 13,51 16,28 12,774 12,967 15,254 Coal (RIO Reported Share) Depreciation & Amortisation US$m (4,86) (4,646) (4,794) (5,11) (4,939) (5,332) (5,697) Thermal coal (mt) Operational Ebit US$m 14,85 7,975 8,716 11,18 7,835 7,635 9,557 Semi-soft Coking Coal (mt) Impairments US$m (473) (2,791) (249) Hard Coking Coal (mt) Share of EAU Profit/(Loss) US$m Total Coal (mt) Adjustments US$m (2,397) (1,569) (1,672) (1,397) (1,48) (1,418) Other (RIO Share) Profit from Operations US$m 12,56 3,976 7,116 1,26 6,955 6,713 1,87 Diamonds (kcts) 13,871 17,394 17,953 2,24 2,11 19,73 19,393 Net Interest US$m (585) (698) (1,22) (637) (582) (575) (544) Uranium (mlbs) Other Finance Costs US$m (2,423) (4,4) 249 (4) (4) (4) (4) TiO2 Feedstock (kt) 1,442 1,89 1,48 1,192 1,192 1,192 1,192 Profit Before Tax US$m 9,552 (726) 6,343 9,169 5,973 5,738 9,143 Borates (kt) Tax Expense US$m (3,53) (993) (1,567) (2,751) (1,792) (1,721) (2,743) Net Earnings US$m 6,499 (1,719) 4,776 6,418 4,181 4,17 6,4 Post-tax exceptionals US$m EBITDA BY COMMODITY Minority Interests US$m (159) (18) Attributable Profit US$m 6,527 (866) 4,617 6,457 4,497 4,22 6, Iron Ore (US$bn) Aluminium (US$bn) Post-tax adjustments to underlying US$m 2,778 5, Copper & Coal (US$bn) Diamonds and Minerals (US$bn) Other (US$bn) Underlying Profit US$m 9,35 4,54 5,1 6,457 4,497 4,22 6,382 CASHFLOW CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e Net Earnings US$m 6,499 (1,719) 4,776 6,418 4,181 4,17 6,4 Interest/Tax/D&A US$m 6,322 7,722 4,319 5,411 5,339 5,732 6,97 Working Capital/other US$m 1,465 3,38 (218) (588) (531) (494) (526) Net Operating Cashflow US$m 14,286 9,383 8,877 11,241 8,988 9,255 11,971 Capital Expenditure US$m (7,418) (4,55) (2,658) (5,31) (5,576) (5,567) (4,91) Disposals/(Acquisitions) US$m (744) (135) (354) 58 Other US$m 1, ,5 Free cash flow US$m 7,783 4,783 6,773 8,768 3,412 3,688 7,88 Dividends US$m (3,71) (4,76) (2,725) (4,399) (3,214) (2,518) (3,17) New Equity US$m 1,291 (1,925) 11 (5) Debt Drawdown/(Repayment) US$m (3,34) (1,681) (4,948) Other US$m Net Financing Cashflow US$m (5,436) (7,67) (7,491) (4,899) (3,214) (2,518) (3,17) FX Adjustment US$m (14) (17) (35) Net change in cash US$m 2,27 (3,57) (753) 3, ,171 4, CY13 CY14 CY15a CY16e CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e CY21e CY22e CY23e CY24e CY25e BALANCE SHEET CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17e CY18e CY19e CY2e VALUATION Cash US$m 12,423 9,366 8,21 12,7 12,268 13,439 18,212 Projects US$m US$/sh A$m A$/sh GBPm GBP/sh Other current assets US$m 8,72 6,188 6,885 6,366 5,833 6,227 6,953 Iron Ore 6, , , Property, Plant & Equipments US$m 68,693 61,57 58,855 56,317 56,954 57,189 55,583 Copper & Diamonds 21, , , Other Non-current assets US$m 18,9 14,953 15,322 15,73 16,77 16,77 17,484 Energy & Minerals 8, , , Total Assets US$m 17,827 91,564 89,263 9,484 91,133 93,563 98,232 Aluminium 13, , , Debt US$m 25,219 23,624 18,392 17,63 17,63 17,63 17,63 Cash 12, , , Payables US$m 8,38 6,919 7,15 6,611 6,57 6,467 7,221 Debt (17,63) (9.87) (23,57) (13.16) (14,14) (7.9) Other liabilities US$m 19,76 16,893 17,991 18,494 18,73 19,251 19,874 Group & Unallocated (1,446) (.81) (1,927) (1.8) (1,156) (.65) Total Net Assets / Equity US$m 54,594 44,128 45,73 47,749 48,716 5,215 53,58 Net Equity Value (WACC 1% Nom) 96, , , Net Debt / (Cash) US$m 12,796 14,258 1,191 5,56 5,362 4,191 (582) Price Target (5/5 NPV and 6.5x EV/Ebitda) AUD 79. GBP 44. Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % 19% 24% 18% 1% 1% 8% (1%) Gearing (net debt/equity) % 23% 32% 22% 12% 11% 8% (1%) Source: RIO, Macquarie Research, February February 217 4
5 Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a strong positive view on. The strongest style exposure is Earnings Momentum, indicating this stock has received earnings upgrades and is well liked by sell side analysts. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is not efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. 16/155 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 59% (1/17) Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 33 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score % -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple % -5% % 5% 1% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Net Buybacks to Mkt Cap Price to Book NTM Operating Leverage NTM Price to Sales LTM Return on Equity FY1 Merton Score Return on Assets FY1 Profit Margin FY1-26% -26% -27% -29% Negatives Positives 25% 22% 22% 27% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/155) Percentile relative to market(/422) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 14 February 217 5
6 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+1% Neutral expected return from -1% to +1% Underperform expected return <-1% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 6 1% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4 6% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3 4% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 3% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 216 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 5.72% 45.57% 42.28% 6.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.9% 33.97% 43.4% 5.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.5% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.3% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) RIO AU vs ASX 1, & rec history RIO LN vs FTSE 1, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) (all figures in GBP currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February month target price methodology RIO AU: A$79. based on a 5/5 Blend 6.5x EV/Ebitda and NPV methodology RIO LN: 44. based on a NPV/6.5x EV/Ebitda blend methodology Company-specific disclosures: RIO AU: Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. or one of its affiliates, expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Ltd in the next three months. RIO LN: Macquarie Bank Limited makes a market in the securities in respect of Limited. Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. or one of its affiliates, expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Ltd in the next three months. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 9-Feb-217 RIO AU Outperform A$79. 4-Feb-217 RIO AU Outperform A$ Jan-217 RIO AU Outperform A$74. 2-Dec-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ Nov-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ Oct-216 RIO AU Outperform A$64. 2-Oct-216 RIO AU Outperform A$63. 2-Sep-216 RIO AU Outperform A$62. 4-Aug-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ Jul-216 RIO AU Outperform A$54. 6-Jul-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ Jun-216 RIO AU Outperform A$5. 19-May-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ May-216 RIO AU Outperform A$ Apr-216 RIO AU Outperform A$5. 14-Dec-215 RIO AU Outperform A$ Sep-215 RIO AU Outperform A$ February 217 6
7 This publication was disseminated on 13 February 217 at 12:24 UTC. 7-Aug-215 RIO AU Outperform A$64. 1-Jul-215 RIO AU Neutral A$ May-215 RIO AU Neutral A$ Mar-215 RIO AU Neutral A$ Feb-215 RIO AU Neutral A$ Jan-215 RIO AU Outperform A$6. 9-Sep-214 RIO AU Outperform A$72. 8-Aug-214 RIO AU Outperform A$ May-214 RIO AU Outperform A$75. Target price risk disclosures: RIO AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. RIO LN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 14 February 217 7
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AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationBHP Billiton. Mad Dog 2 gets FID AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 12:49, 02 Dec 2016 GMT) A$25.02/ 13.39/R234.60 Valuation A$ 20.74/ 12.25/R217.81 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%,
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 4:13, 31 Jan 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.6 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.91 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +19.1 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationDoray Minerals. Mine life upside at Andy Well A$0.44 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA DRM AU Price (at 5:28, 22 Jun 215 GMT) Outperform A$.44 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.9, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).8 12-month target A$.8 12-month TSR % +81.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationSouth32. Klipspruit coal mine tour AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 12:26, 2 Dec 216 GMT) A$2.83/ 1.67/R29.31 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$ 2.55/ 1.59/R27.75
More informationMMG. A year of consolidation in 2017 AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG AU / 128 HK Outperform Price (at 4:, 13 Mar 217 GMT) A$4.9/HK$2.85 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.%, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$4.86/HK$2.85 12-month target A$5.5/HK$3.2 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 17 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.88 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.96 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +14.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationAustralian Iron Ore Miners
AUSTRALIA BHP Billiton Neutral Market Cap US$69,410m Price A$18.55/ 8.48/ZAR182.75 Price Target A$15.50/ 7.20/ZAR163 TSR (15%)/(13%)/(9%) Rio Tinto Outperform Market Cap US$56,484m Price A$46.47/ 21.05
More informationBHP Billiton. 2 C could make all the difference. BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT)
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT) A$16.14/ 7.35/R155.35 Valuation A$14.93/ 7.00/R156.74 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 3:1, 22 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.99 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.79 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +13.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationSouth32. Wind in the sails. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:20, 03 Mar 2017 GMT) A$2.70/ 1.66/R26.70
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:2, 3 Mar 217 GMT) A$2.7/ 1.66/R26.7 Valuation A$ 2.78/ 1.67/R27.9 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationSouth32. Richards Bay and Hillside site tours. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 02:33, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 2:33, 3 Nov 216 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.84 Valuation A$2.55/ 1.59/R27.75 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 08:49, 24 Jun 20 GMT) Outperform A$3.27 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 3.57 12-month target A$ 3.60 12-month TSR % +.9 Volatility Index Very High
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
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AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
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