BHP Billiton. 2 C could make all the difference. BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT)
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- Derrick Lester
- 5 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT) A$16.14/ 7.35/R Valuation A$14.93/ 7.00/R DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$15.00/ 7.00/R month TSR % -4.7 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials 30-day avg turnover A$m Combined market cap US$m 64,420 Number shares on issue m 3,212 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue m 44,636 29,989 31,686 34,183 EBIT m 11,866 2,444 6,416 8,332 Reported profit m 1, ,903 4,239 Adjusted profit m 7, ,903 4,239 Gross cashflow m 19,575 9,311 10,999 12,336 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x BHP AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, April 2016 (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in AUD) 7 April C could make all the difference Event BHP presented to Macquarie yesterday on their climate policy and the impact a 2 C world could have on their earnings. Impact All but iron ore will fall. Under their 2 C scenarios, BHP sees portfolio earnings falling by ~5-20% from their forecasts. Within this analysis, iron ore is the only commodity whose margins will rise to offset all the other losses. We estimate if falling demand drops prices for all their commodities by 5-10%, we see earnings falling between 10-20% Oil earnings inelastic. Under their climate forecasting, BHP believe that even with a ~6% drop in demand for oil, conventional earnings will only drop by ~6% and shale earnings by up to 10%. Under our assumptions, if oil falls by 6%, earnings in the conventional business will fall by 8% and 0% in the shale business due to reduced production levels at lower energy prices. Bleak outlook for thermal coal. Mirroring our base case, under BHP s climate stress testing, they expect a massive drop in demand and earnings for thermal coal. Under our LT thermal forecast of US$48/t, we value BHP s thermal assets at ~US$790m and see only the NSW Energy group EBIDTA positive long-term. Earnings and target price revision No change. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$15.00 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Quarterly production report on April 20 Action and recommendation Maintain Underperform. BHP has gone well beyond their peers in providing detail into how climate policy could affect their portfolio. However, the analysis also provides a fascinating glimpse at the long-term assumptions that underpin their forecasts. Oil barely falls. In stark contrast to the last 18 months where demand stagnated and oil prices have fallen 70%, the forecast of a mild fall in demand having minimal impact on earnings seems optimistic. Iron ore the saviour. The company believes that despite depressed demand globally for iron ore, their prices would increase as steel makers look for iron ore that could help them reduce emissions. Though this is a possibility, it is not one we have seen yet in countries looking to cut emissions. Forecast for ~15%pa EBITDA growth seems a long way away, but under BHP assumptions, organic growth projects will achieve >20%IRR to provide for their EBITDA growth forecasts. Under our forecast, we only see earnings growing by ~35% in real terms to We remain negative on our outlook for BHP and their commodity exposures. Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Flexing for climate change BHP presented to Macquarie yesterday on their climate policy and the impact a 2 C world could have on their earnings. The focus was on two scenarios in particular, what would happen if the world shifts to a 2 C in either an orderly fashion, or else shifts but as a result of a rapid shock event. Under both scenarios, BHP sees demand for most commodities falling; unsurprisingly it is thermal coal that is under the most pressure. Fig 1 Demand for most commodities fall under climate flex Source: BHP, April 2016 All but iron ore will fall Showing just how important iron ore is to the overall health of the company, under their forecasting this is the only commodity that doesn t suffer EBITDA losses in a 2 C world. In fact, its EBITDA growth of ~2-5% is sufficient to limit portfolio losses between 5-20%. Fig 2 Oil holds, coal falls and iron ore holds the ship Source: BHP, April April
3 Oil earnings inelastic Under their climate forecasting, BHP believe that even with a ~6% drop in demand for oil, conventional earnings will only drop by ~6% and shale earnings by up to 10%. Under our assumptions, if oil falls by 6%, earnings in the conventional business will fall by 8% and 0% in the shale business due to reduced production levels at lower energy prices. We believe this difference between BHP and our own forecasts is due to BHP having not reduced their long term gas and oil price forecasts, something they have previously mentioned. However, the stark contrast to the last 18 months where demand has stagnated and oil prices have fallen 70%, and BHP s estimate of a mild fall in demand having minimal impact on earnings seems optimistic. Fig 3 Oil slips, coal falls, and iron ore holds upright Source: BHP, April 2016 Bleak outlook for thermal coal Mirroring our base case, under BHP s climate stress testing, they expect a massive drop in demand and earnings for thermal coal. Under our LT thermal forecast of US$48/t, we value BHP s thermal assets at ~US$790m and see only the NSW Energy group EBIDTA positive long-term. An interesting component of this is BHP s own base carbon price forecast, US$24/t. And the carbon price they believe would be necessary to shift the world to a gradual 2 C world, US$50/t. This is in stark contrast to $100/t BP (BP/ LN, 3.40, Neutral, TP: 3.50, Iain Reid) stated would be necessary in their 2016 Energy Outlook. As our commodities team point out in their note, Thermal coal a hammer blow, the current European carbon price of ~US$6/t is insufficient to incentivise switching. But, the UK s $26/t carbon price is. If BHP s forecast is correct, then many other thermal coal producers such as Whitehaven (WHC AU, A$0.61, Underperform, TP: A$0.30, Andrew Hodge) and New Hope (NHC AU, A$1.31, Underperform, TP: A$1.00, Andrew Hodge) could swiftly find themselves with lower EBITDA projections in line with BHP s 2 C world. 7 April
4 Fig 4 BHP Ebitda by division- last 5 years Fig 5 BHP Ebitda by division- next 5 years Other 3% 7% Other 1% 8% 28% 33% 41% 43% 20% 16% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Fig 6 BHP capex by division- last 5 years Fig 7 BHP capex by division- next 5 years Other 8% Other 4% 6% 15% 33% 19% 48% 25% 19% 23% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Fig 8 BHP NPV by division- Macquarie forecasts Fig 9 BHP NPV by division- spot prices 9% 9% and Potash 15% 17% 59% and Potash -1% 17% 73% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April April
5 Fig 10 BHP summary financials Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, April 2016 ASX: BHP Price: (A$ps) Year end: Jun Rating: Underperform Up/dn TSR LSE: BLT Price: ( ps) 7.35 Diluted shares (m) 5,323 ASX Target: % -4% JSE: BIL Price: (ZARps) LSE Target: % -3% Mkt cap: (US$m) 60,716 JSE Target: % 3% ASSUMPTIONS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e ASSUMPTIONS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Exchange Rate A$/US$ Commodity prices Exchange Rate USDBRL (US$/t) Exchange Rate USDZAR Hard coking coal (US$/t) RATIO ANALYSIS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Thermal coal (US$/t) Diluted share capital m 5,340 5,338 5,333 5,323 5,323 5,323 5,323 5,323 (US$/lb) EPS (diluted and pre sig. items) US Nickel (US$/lb) P/E x 7.7x 4.6x 33.6x 105.3x 22.1x 15.1x 12.8x 12.7x Brent Crude (US$/bbl) CFPS US West Texas (US$/bbl) P/CF x 4.3x 3.4x 4.4x 9.3x 9.2x 8.2x 7.2x 6.5x Henry Hub (US$/mmbu) DPS US Dividend yield % 7.3% 10.0% 10.3% 1.7% 2.3% 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% Production by commodity Franking Level % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Book value per share US$ps WAIO (mt) - 100% P/Book value x nm 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x WAIO (mt) - BHP share R.O.E. (pre sig items) % nm 18% 6% -9% 5% 7% 8% 7% Samarco (mt) - BHP share R.O.A. (pre sig items) % nm 15% 10% 2% 5% 7% 7% 7% Total (mt) - BHP share Interest Cover x 18.0x 19.4x 19.3x 2.3x 5.3x 6.9x 8.0x 8.6x EBITDA per share US$ps Coking coal (mt) - 100% EV/EBITDA x 0.9x 2.7x 3.9x 7.8x 6.0x 5.2x 4.5x 3.1x Coking coal (mt) FCF Yield % 4.5% 18.7% 10.1% 2.9% 7.1% 6.0% 9.1% 10.1% Thermal coal (mt) EARNINGS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e (kt) Revenue US$m 65,953 67,206 44,636 29,989 31,686 34,183 37,147 38,692 Escondida - (100%) 1,161 1,164 1, ,114 1,108 1,100 1,092 Operating Costs US$m (36,079) (35,638) (22,868) (17,543) (17,446) (18,053) (19,487) (20,111) Cerro Colorado Operational EBITDA US$m 29,874 31,568 21,768 12,446 14,240 16,130 17,660 18,581 Spence Associates US$m 1,142 1, (872) Olympic Dam Corporate & Other Costs US$m (708) (404) (464) (481) (491) (504) (517) (531) Antamina Underlying Ebitda US$m 30,308 32,359 21,852 11,093 14,036 16,032 17,590 18,548 Total (kt) 1,699 1,725 1,729 1,521 1,623 1,629 1,629 1,620 D&A & Impairments US$m (7,378) (9,498) (9,986) (8,649) (7,620) (7,700) (8,352) (9,259) (mmboe) Underlying Ebit US$m 22,930 22,861 11,866 2,444 6,416 8,332 9,239 9,289 Conventional production Adjustments US$m (1,928) 551 (3,196) (8,372) Unconventional Production Profit from Operations US$m 21,002 23,412 8,670 (5,928) 6,416 8,332 9,239 9,289 Total Net Interest US$m (1,276) (1,176) (614) (1,047) (1,217) (1,200) (1,158) (1,075) Profit Before Tax US$m 19,726 22,236 8,056 (6,975) 5,200 7,131 8,081 8,214 EBITDA BY COMMODITY Tax Expense US$m (6,906) (7,012) (3,666) 1,557 (1,820) (2,496) (2,828) (2,875) Net Earnings US$m 12,820 15,224 4,390 (5,418) 3,380 4,635 5,252 5,339 Discontinued operations US$m 0 0 (1,512) Minority interests US$m (1,597) (1,392) (968) (54) (477) (396) (227) (294) Attributable Profit US$m 11,223 13,832 1,910 (5,472) 2,903 4,239 5,025 5,045 Adjustments US$m 985 (385) 5,199 6, Underlying Profit US$m 12,208 13,447 7, ,903 4,239 5,025 5,045 CASHFLOW FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Net Earnings US$m 12,820 15,224 4,390 (5,418) 3,380 4,635 5,252 5,339 Interest/Tax/D&A US$m 7,792 9,034 11,720 13,877 6,143 6,143 6,790 7,773 Working Capital/other US$m (458) 1,106 3, (230) (349) (240) (71) Net Operating Cashflow US$m 20,154 25,364 19,296 9,184 9,293 10,430 11,802 13,040 Capital Expenditure (cash basis) US$m (22,291) (15,181) (11,581) (6,993) (5,010) (6,770) (6,305) (6,888) Acquisitions/(Disposals) US$m 4,780 1, Other US$m 88 (713) (1,573) (407) (0) Free cash flow US$m 2,731 11,352 6,142 1,784 4,283 3,660 5,497 6,152 Dividends US$m (6,167) (6,387) (6,498) (4,120) (905) (1,703) (2,395) (2,608) Minority dividends & payments US$m (837) 1,183 (501) (187) (477) (396) (227) (294) New Equity US$m (424) (354) (346) (69) Debt Drawdown/(Repayment) US$m 7,172 (910) (931) 6, ,200 0 (1,200) Net Financing Cashflow US$m (256) (6,468) (8,276) 1,766 (1,381) (900) (2,622) (4,102) Net change in cash US$m 2,475 4,884 (2,134) 3,550 2,901 2,761 2,875 2,050 VALUATION BALANCE SHEET FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Projects US$m US$ A$m A$/sh GBPm GBP ZARm ZAR Cash US$m 5,677 8,803 6,753 10,216 13,118 15,878 18,753 20,803 13, , , , Other current assets US$m 13,276 13,493 9,616 7,049 7,688 8,658 9,326 9,524 52, , , , Property, Plant & Equipments US$m 100, ,787 94,072 85,014 82,845 81,914 82,867 84,497 14, , , , Other Non-current assets US$m 19,660 20,330 14,139 16,659 17,866 19,017 19,831 20,330 9, , , , Total Assets US$m 139, , , , , , , ,154 Nickel West (1,567) (0.29) (2,090) (0.39) (980) (0.18) (21,943) (4.12) Debt US$m 33,187 34,589 31,170 36,547 36,547 37,747 37,747 36,547 Group and unallocated (3,080) (0.58) (4,106) (0.77) (1,925) (0.36) (43,114) (8.10) Payables US$m 11,146 10,258 7,418 5,179 5,649 6,362 6,853 6,999 Other Other liabilities US$m 19,554 21,184 15,447 15,562 15,305 14,440 16,281 18,581 Cash 9, , , , Total Net Assets / Equity US$m 75,291 85,382 70,545 61,650 64,016 66,918 69,896 73,027 Debt (36,547) (6.87) (48,729) (9.15) (22,842) (4.29) (511,658) (96.13) Net Debt / (Cash) US$m 27,510 25,786 24,417 26,331 23,429 21,869 18,994 15,744 Net Equity Value (WACC 10.0% Nom 59, , , , Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % 27% 23% 26% 30% 27% 25% 21% 18% Price Target AUD GBP 7.00 ZAR Gearing (net debt/equity) % 37% 30% 35% 43% 37% 33% 27% 22% (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn). Other (US$bn) FY13a FY14a FY15a FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY22e FY23e FY24e FY25e 7 April
6 Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a reasonably negative view on BHP Billiton. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 729/1071 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 35% (7/20) Number of Price Target downgrades 4 Number of Price Target upgrades 12 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Fortescue Metals Group Glencore Fortescue Metals Group Glencore Vale 0.0 Vale Rio Tinto -0.1 Rio Tinto -0.5 Anglo American -0.8 Anglo American South South % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Fortescue Metals Group Glencore Vale Rio Tinto Anglo American South Fortescue Metals Group Glencore Vale Rio Tinto Anglo American South % -50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Sales to EV NTM Price to Sales NTM DPS Growth FY1 Capex Growth Sales Revisions 3 Month 3M Price Target Revisions CPS Revisions 3 Month 3m Earnings Revisions Negatives Positives -22% -22% -25% -26% 29% 27% 25% 34% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/1071) Percentile relative to market(/401) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 7 April
7 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 50.68% 61.04% 53.16% 47.90% 65.22% 43.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.51% 24.66% 34.18% 47.70% 29.71% 34.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.02% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 17.81% 14.30% 12.66% 4.39% 5.07% 21.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.78% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) BHP AU vs ASX 100, & rec history BLT LN vs FTSE 100, & rec history BIL SJ vs FTSE/JSE, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) (all figures in GBP currency unless noted) (all figures in ZAR currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, April month target price methodology BHP AU: A$15.00 based on a DCF methodology BLT LN: 7.00 based on a DCF methodology BIL SJ: R based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: BHP AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by Ltd. BLT LN: Macquarie Bank Limited makes a market in the securities in respect of BHP Limited. BIL SJ: Macquarie Bank Limited makes a market in the securities in respect of BHP Limited. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 12-Mar-2016 BHP AU Neutral A$ Jan-2016 BHP AU Neutral A$ Jan-2016 BHP AU Neutral A$ Jan-2016 BHP AU Neutral A$ Dec-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Nov-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Oct-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jul-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Apr-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jan-2015 BHP AU Neutral A$ Sep-2014 BHP AU Neutral A$ Aug-2014 BHP AU Neutral A$ May-2014 BHP AU Outperform A$ April
8 19-Feb-2014 BHP AU Outperform A$ Nov-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Aug-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jul-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$40.00 Target price risk disclosures: BHP AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. BLT LN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. BIL SJ: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 7 April
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AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationRio Tinto. Expect more cash back in RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform Price (at 8:37, 13 Feb 217 GMT) A$68.32/ 34.45 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$72.24/ 43.35 12-month target A$79./ 43.35 12-month
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationBHP Billiton. Chilean Copper Site Tour Preview. BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 03:50, 25 Nov 2015 GMT) A$19.71/ 8.71/R185.
AUSTRALIA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 03:50, 25 Nov 2015 GMT) A$19.71/ 8.71/R185.87 Valuation A$ 27.05/ 12.56/R263.70 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 27.00/
More informationSouth32. Klipspruit coal mine tour AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 12:26, 2 Dec 216 GMT) A$2.83/ 1.67/R29.31 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$ 2.55/ 1.59/R27.75
More informationAustralian Iron Ore Miners
AUSTRALIA BHP Billiton Neutral Market Cap US$69,410m Price A$18.55/ 8.48/ZAR182.75 Price Target A$15.50/ 7.20/ZAR163 TSR (15%)/(13%)/(9%) Rio Tinto Outperform Market Cap US$56,484m Price A$46.47/ 21.05
More informationRio Tinto. Mixed production, but iron-ore in line AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM A$48.99/ Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM RIO AU/RIO LN Price (at 6:1, 19 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$48.99/ 24.63 Valuation A$ 52.22/ 27.97 - DCF (WACC 8.%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month target A$ 54./ 27. 12-month
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 4:13, 31 Jan 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.6 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.91 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +19.1 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationSouth32. Wind in the sails. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:20, 03 Mar 2017 GMT) A$2.70/ 1.66/R26.70
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:2, 3 Mar 217 GMT) A$2.7/ 1.66/R26.7 Valuation A$ 2.78/ 1.67/R27.9 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 17 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.88 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.96 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +14.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSouth32. Richards Bay and Hillside site tours. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 02:33, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 2:33, 3 Nov 216 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.84 Valuation A$2.55/ 1.59/R27.75 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 3:1, 22 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.99 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.79 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +13.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationDoray Minerals. Mine life upside at Andy Well A$0.44 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA DRM AU Price (at 5:28, 22 Jun 215 GMT) Outperform A$.44 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.9, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).8 12-month target A$.8 12-month TSR % +81.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 08:49, 24 Jun 20 GMT) Outperform A$3.27 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 3.57 12-month target A$ 3.60 12-month TSR % +.9 Volatility Index Very High
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationMMG. A year of consolidation in 2017 AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG AU / 128 HK Outperform Price (at 4:, 13 Mar 217 GMT) A$4.9/HK$2.85 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.%, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$4.86/HK$2.85 12-month target A$5.5/HK$3.2 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationBHP Billiton. Production guidance under pressure AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 05:28, 25 Jan 2017 GMT) A$27.89/ 14.81/R249.42 Valuation A$21.84/ 13.10/R229.42 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationBlueScope Steel. Execution, execution, execution A$12.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA BSL AU Price (at 05:10, 20 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$12.33 Valuation A$ 13.09 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 14.30 12-month TSR % +17.0 Volatility
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