BHP Billiton. Chilean Copper Site Tour Preview. BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 03:50, 25 Nov 2015 GMT) A$19.71/ 8.71/R185.
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- Norman Bridges
- 6 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 03:50, 25 Nov 2015 GMT) A$19.71/ 8.71/R Valuation A$ 27.05/ 12.56/R DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 27.00/ 12.50/R month TSR % Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Materials 30-day avg turnover A$m Combined market cap US$m 84,184 Number shares on issue m 3,212 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue m 44,636 34,895 37,809 42,342 EBIT m 11,866 6,858 9,851 12,571 Reported profit m 1,910 3,316 4,909 6,561 Adjusted profit m 7,109 3,316 4,909 6,561 Gross cashflow m 19,575 12,664 14,202 16,115 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x BHP AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2015 (all figures in USD unless noted, TP in AUD) 26 November 2015 Chilean Site Tour Preview Event We highlight the likely key discussion points before the upcoming Chilean copper site tour next week. Impact Escondida production plan evolving: The production plan for Escondida has evolved significantly since the last Chilean site tour in The production strategy has evolved from a dual concentrator approach capable of ~277ktpd throughput rates to now a three concentrator strategy with ~375ktpd capacity. The new mine plan still allows access to the majority of the highgrade ore that was originally envisaged without having to demolish the Los Colorados concentrator. Access to the high-grade area is crucial for BHP as it partially offsets recent and expected grade declines at Escondida. Likely grade decline at Escondida: BHP appears to have been high-grading production of the copper sulphides relative to reserve/resource grades historically to deliver on its production targets. Management have previously outlined that the organic growth options for Escondida revolve around a fourth concentrator (OGP2) and a high-grade underground mine, and we believe it is unlikely that grades will recover back to historical levels in the foreseeable future. Spence Hypogene project a game-changer: The US$3.2bn Spence Hypogene project is currently in pre-feasibility and has the potential to deliver first production in FY20, subject to board approval. The Hypogene project is a significant game changer for Spence given that it has the potential to extend the mine life by more than 50 years and increase production levels to ~270ktpa over the first 10 years. If proven successful the technology could also be used at Cerro Colorado. We do not currently include the Hypogene development for Spence in our base case forecasts for BHP. Earnings and target price revision No change to our earnings or price targets. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$27.00/ 12.50/R260 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: Further updates on Samarco remain catalysts for BHP. New guidance on future production plans may also be released on the Chilean site tour. The release of the 1HFY16 financials in February will also be important given that in our opinion it represents the most likely near-term event where any changes to the progressive dividend policy could be announced. Action and recommendation Maintain Outperform: We expect concerns over the company s ability to sustain its progressive dividend are likely to continue to weigh on the share price in the near term. We note that on our forecasts, BHP is able to sustain both its progressive dividend and maintain a solid A credit rating, although a downgrade from A+ looks likely. At spot prices, cash flow generation falls US$3-4bn short of covering the progressive dividend over the next 2-3 years. Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Evolution of Escondida The production plan for Escondida has evolved significantly since the last Chilean site tour in The production strategy has evolved from a dual concentrator approach capable of ~277ktpd throughput rates to now a three concentrator strategy with ~375ktpd capacity. Fig Escondida Site Tour mill throughput plan Fig 2 Present Escondida mill throughput plan ktpd 277ktpd ktpd 375ktpd ktpd +15ktpd 245ktpd ktpd +15ktpd 245ktpd Base (FY12) LSD Post LSD OGP1 Post OGP1 Base (FY12) LSD Post LSD OGP1/LC extension Source: Macquarie Research, November 2015 Source: Macquarie Research, November 2015 Post OGP1 The evolution in strategy revolves around changes to the plans for the Los Colorados concentrator post the commissioning of the new 152ktpd concentrator OGP1. OGP1 was approved in February 2012 and the project was completed in May 2015 at a cost of US$4.2bn (US$2.4bn BHP share). BHP s original plans were for OGP1 to replace the original Los Colorados concentrator. The Los Colorados concentrator was to be decommissioned and demolished to allow access to a zone of high-grade ore that sits beneath the concentrator. BHP then planned to run a dual concentrator strategy, with the 42ktpd of incremental production capacity gains from replacing the 110ktpd Los Colorados concentrator with the 152ktpd OGP1 concentrator lifting total throughput capacity to ~277ktpd. Fig 3 Increased mill throughput at Escondida Concentrator Capacity Post OGP1 (100%) 2012 Production Plan Present Production Plan Los Colorados (ktpd) 0 98 Laguna Seca (ktpd) OGP1 (ktpd) Total Throughput capacity- 100% (ktpd) Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 BHP are now advancing an alternative production plan which would still allow access to the majority of the high-grade ore that was originally envisaged without having to demolish the Los Colorados concentrator. Running the three concentrators would be a low capital intensity option for BHP. It defers the requirement for OGP2 (a second new concentrator) and defers the ~US$100m cost to demolish Los Colorados and demolish and relocate the adjacent truck stop, which would be expensive given the ~150 trucks on site. The existing crushing/conveying system will continue to supply Laguna Seca and would be diverted to supply the new OGP1 concentrator. BHP notes that extending the life of the Los Colorados concentrator itself would require only a modest additional investment, essentially just constructing a new 110ktpd crusher/conveying system to supply Los Colorados, and could potentially extend the life of Los Colorados out to FY30. Ore supplied to Los Colorados is currently planned to be from the highest grade material that is currently feeding the sulphide leach, so no increases in total material movement are planned. This will translate into lower grades at the leach pad as a trade off but there is a net benefit as recoveries from the concentrator are significantly higher than the sulphide leach process, at ~80% and ~35% recovery respectively. 26 November
3 Access to the high-grade area is crucial for BHP as it partially offsets recent and expected grade declines at Escondida. The main mine design change is to execute a series of smaller push backs with steeper pit gradients. In doing so, the cut backs will push the pit wall right up to the existing infrastructure Los Colorados concentrator and nearby truck stop. Push-backs are now planned to reach this high-grade area in the early 2020s lifting Escondida mill head grades back to ~1% by the early 2020s. Fig 4 Revised mine plan still allows access to the high-grade ore zone Source: BHP, November 2015 We note that running the three concentrators requires additional water supply which BHP is addressing with the development of a new 2,500lps desalination plant. The project, Escondida Water Supply (EWS), is now scheduled to be delivered in CY17 at a cost of US$3.4bn (BHP US$2.0bn). Once EWS is commissioned >80% of water for Escondida would be supplied from non-fresh sources. Desalinated water is sourced at higher cost, however the scale benefits associated with increasing throughput outweigh the marginal unit cost increases. BHP is also commencing plans to secure the power supply for Escondida and the local region. A development contract has been awarded to a Korean Consortium comprising KOSPO and Samsung C&T to develop a 517MW gas-fired power plant in Mejillones under a build-ownoperate-maintain model. The new power plant allows BHP to shift power reliance at Escondida from 100% coal to a 50/50 split between coal and gas. The contract also has power expansion options that would be beneficial for Spence and other projects in the area. Grade decline likely moving forward BHP s original guidance at the 2012 site tour was for Escondida to produce >1.3Mt of total copper production (100%, mill production plus copper cathode). This production guidance slowly slipped over time, decreasing to ~1.3Mt in 1HFY14, before falling again to ~1.27mt at the full year FY14 result. We note that actual FY15 production of 1.23mt missed even these revised targets. Fig 5 FY15 Production miss at Escondida 2012 Production Plan Target (Mt) Actual Production (Mt) Escondida FY15 copper production (Mt) > Source: Macquarie Research, November November
4 FY16 production guidance for Escondida remains unchanged at 940kt as grades are expected to decline by ~27%, only partially offset by the ramp-up of OGP1. Production from Los Colorados is now expected to ramp-down before ramping up again with the commissioning of EWS in FY17, which would allow Escondida to potentially reach 375ktpd throughput rates with the three concentrators in early 2020s. With three concentrators installed and the completion of EWS BHP expects Escondida can maintain production for a decade without the need for any major capex. Fig 6 Escondida mill head grades significantly above reserve/resource grades 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Ore milled (kt) Mill copper head grade (%) 2015 sulphide reserve grade (%) 2015 sulphide resource grade (Escondida) (%) 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 We note that historically Escondida has operated at significantly higher grades than reserve/resource grades. production at the heap leach has been consistently in the ktpa range over the past seven years however we expect that lower grades in the heaped sulphide leach ore post the ramp-up of Los Colorados will impact on production volumes. Historically it appears that BHP have been high-grading production of the copper sulphides relative to reserve/resource grades to reach stretch production targets. We note that even with mill head grades in FY15 ~23% higher than in FY12 Escondida did not meet its production guidance. Management have previously outlined that the organic growth options for Escondida revolve around a fourth concentrator (OGP2) and a high-grade underground mine, so we believe it is unlikely that grades will recover back to recent levels in the foreseeable future. BHP now appear to be content with mining relatively lower grades and lifting throughput production and restructuring labour contracts to compensate for the impact of lower grades on unit costs. Fig 7 Escondida copper production profile 1,600 production from mill (kt) cathode production- heap leach (kt) 1,400 1,200 1, ,207 1,149 1, Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November November
5 Hypogene project a game-changer at Spence The ore body at Spence consists of an enriched supergene portion of the copper porphyry sitting on top, with a lower-grade, harder Hypogene resource sitting immediately below. The 2.3Bt Hypogene resource at Spence dominates total resources, accounting for 72% of Spence s measured resources and 87% of total resources. Fig 8 Spence Hypogene resource is significant Spence Hypogene Sulphide (Mt) Grade (%) Total Resource (Mt) Grade Hyogene % of (%) Total Resource Measured % % 72% Indicated % % 88% Inferred % 1, % 97% Total 2, % 2, % 87% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 The Hypogene project is a significant game changer for Spence given that it has the potential to extend the mine life by more than 50 years. If proven successful the technology could also be used at Cerro Colorado. Fig 9 Hypogene resource dominates total resources at Spence Source: BHP. November 2015 The US$3.2bn Hypogene project is currently in pre-feasibility and has the potential to deliver first production in FY20, subject to board approval. The hypogene ore underlies the supergene reserves currently being exploited and as such BHP expects there will not be any pre-stripping required. Under current plans leaching of the remaining supergene resource would continue in parallel with leaching of low-grade Hypogene ore until the Supergene resource is fully exhausted by the mid- 2020s. The addition of heaped low-grade hypogene ore could potentially contribute ~200ktpa of copper production in the first 10 years of production (170ktpa copper in concentrate, 30ktpa copper cathode), lifting total copper production at Spence to ~260ktpa until the supergene resource is exhausted. Advancing the Hypogene project requires the construction of a 95ktpd concentrator and associated source of desalinated water. Technical risk is low for the concentrator given that it would be a smaller version of OGP1, but hypogene has traditionally been very difficult to leach. BHP have previously been confident that they have the technical expertise to achieve ~60% recovery rates through the leach process, and coupled with the associated molybdenum byproduct credits, believe the hypogene development would be at least a second-quartile C1 cost operation, with ongoing optimisation capable of driving costs lower. 26 November
6 Fig 10 BHP Ebitda by division last 5 years Fig 11 BHP Ebitda by division next 5 years 8% Other 3% 8% Other 0% 28% 33% 41% 36% 20% 23% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 Fig 12 BHP capex by division last 5 years Fig 13 BHP capex by division next 5 years Other 4% 15% Other 8% 33% 17% 6% 25% 53% 19% 20% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 Fig 14 BHP NPV by asset Macquarie forecasts Fig 15 BHP NPV by asset Spot prices 13% 19% 4% 19% 49% and Potash 6% and Potash 19% 71% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November 2015 Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November November
7 Fig 16 BHP summary financials ASX: BHP Price: (A$ps) Year end: Jun Rating: Outperform Up/dn TSR LSE: BLT Price: ( ps) 8.71 Diluted shares (m) 5,324 ASX Target: % 46% JSE BIL Price: (ZARps) LSE Target: % 52% Mkt cap: (US$m) 73,690 JSE Target: % 49% ASSUMPTIONS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e ASSUMPTIONS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Exchange Rate A$/US$ Commodity prices Exchange Rate USDBRL (US$/t) Exchange Rate USDZAR Hard coking coal (US$/t) RATIO ANALYSIS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e Thermal coal (US$/t) Diluted share capital m 5,469 5,176 5,318 5,324 5,324 5,324 5,324 (US$/lb) EPS (diluted and pre sig. items) US Nickel (US$/lb) P/E x 9.6x 5.5x 39.8x 23.0x 15.5x 11.6x 9.6x Brent Crude (US$/bbl) CFPS US West Texas (US$/bbl) P/CF x 5.4x 4.0x 5.4x 8.8x 8.6x 7.6x 6.7x Henry Hub (US$/mmbu) DPS US Dividend yield % 5.9% 8.5% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.8% Production by commodity Franking Level % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Book value per share US$ps WAIO (mt) - 100% P/Book value x nm 0.9x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.0x WAIO (mt) - BHP share R.O.E. (pre sig items) % nm 18% 6% 6% 8% 11% 12% Samarco (mt) - BHP share R.O.A. (pre sig items) % nm 15% 10% 6% 8% 11% 12% Total (mt) - BHP share Interest Cover x 18.0x 19.4x 19.3x 6.4x 8.1x 9.9x 11.9x EBITDA per share US$ps Coking coal (mt) - 100% EV/EBITDA x 0.9x 3.1x 4.5x 6.4x 5.6x 4.9x 4.3x Coking coal (mt) Thermal coal (mt) EARNINGS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e (kt) Revenue US$m 65,953 67,206 44,636 34,895 37,809 42,342 47,203 Escondida - (100%) 1,129 1,153 1, ,101 1,109 1,101 1,092 Operating Costs US$m (36,079) (35,638) (22,868) (19,018) (19,255) (21,067) (23,281) Cerro Colorado Operational EBITDA US$m 29,874 31,568 21,768 15,878 18,554 21,276 23,922 Spence Associates US$m 1,142 1, Olympic Dam Corporate & Other Costs US$m (708) (404) (464) (482) (494) (507) (521) Antamina Underlying Ebitda US$m 30,308 32,359 21,852 15,760 18,436 21,343 24,168 Total (kt) 1,668 1,714 1,708 1,478 1,611 1,631 1,631 1,622 D&A & Impairments US$m (7,378) (9,498) (9,986) (8,902) (8,585) (8,772) (9,046) (mmboe) Underlying Ebit US$m 22,930 22,861 11,866 6,858 9,851 12,571 15,122 Conventional production Adjustments US$m (1,928) 551 (3,196) Unconventional Production Profit from Operations US$m 21,002 23,412 8,670 6,858 9,851 12,571 15,122 Total Net Interest US$m (1,276) (1,176) (614) (1,071) (1,210) (1,274) (1,272) Profit Before Tax US$m 19,726 22,236 8,056 5,787 8,641 11,298 13,850 EBITDA BY COMMODITY Tax Expense US$m (6,906) (7,012) (3,666) (2,026) (3,024) (3,954) (4,848) Net Earnings US$m 12,820 15,224 4,390 3,762 5,617 7,343 9,003 (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn) (US$bn). Other (US$bn) Discontinued operations US$m 0 0 (1,512) Minority interests US$m (1,597) (1,392) (968) (446) (708) (783) (1,051) Attributable Profit US$m 11,223 13,832 1,910 3,316 4,909 6,561 7,952 Adjustments US$m 985 (385) 5, Underlying Profit US$m 12,208 13,447 7,109 3,316 4,909 6,561 7, CASHFLOW FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e Net Earnings US$m 12,820 15,224 4,390 3,762 5,617 7,343 9,003 Interest/Tax/D&A US$m 7,792 9,034 11,720 7,781 6,943 6,933 7, Working Capital/other US$m (458) 1,106 3, (287) (471) (336) Net Operating Cashflow US$m 20,154 25,364 19,296 11,947 12,272 13,806 15,747 Capital Expenditure US$m (24,410) (17,003) (12,909) (8,474) (6,997) (7,399) (7,202) 15.0 Acquisitions/(Disposals) US$m 4,780 1, Other US$m 88 (713) Free cash flow US$m 612 9,530 6,387 3,473 5,276 6,407 8,545 Dividends US$m (6,167) (6,387) (6,498) (6,598) (6,601) (6,601) (6,655) Minority dividends & payments US$m (837) 1,183 (501) (446) (708) (783) (1,051) 5.0 New Equity US$m (424) (354) (346) Debt Drawdown/(Repayment) US$m 7,172 (910) (931) , Net Financing Cashflow US$m (256) (6,468) (8,276) (6,344) (7,310) (6,184) (7,705) FY13a FY14a FY15a FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e FY21e FY22e FY23e FY24e FY25e Net change in cash US$m 356 3,062 (1,889) (2,871) (2,034) VALUATION BALANCE SHEET FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e Projects US$m US$ A$m A$/sh GBPm GBP ZARm ZAR Cash US$m 5,677 8,803 6,753 3,882 1,848 2,071 2,911 26, , , , Other current assets US$m 13,276 13,493 9,616 8,386 9,260 10,693 11,717 67, , , , Property, Plant & Equipments US$m 100, ,787 94,072 93,644 92,056 90,683 91,840 26, , , , Other Non-current assets US$m 19,660 20,330 14,139 14,085 14,758 15,821 16,936 19, , , , Total Assets US$m 139, , , , , , ,404 Aluminium, Manganese and Nickel (1,733) (0.33) (2,310) (0.43) (1,073) (0.20) (22,527) (4.23) Debt US$m 33,187 34,589 31,170 31,820 31,820 33,020 33,020 Group and unallocated (4,472) (0.84) (5,963) (1.12) (2,769) (0.52) (58,137) (10.92) Payables US$m 11,146 10,258 7,418 6,469 7,144 8,249 9,039 Other Other liabilities US$m 19,554 21,184 15,447 13,556 11,084 8,599 8,599 Cash 5, , , , Total Net Assets / Equity US$m 75,291 85,382 70,545 68,152 67,875 69,400 72,745 Debt (31,820) (5.98) (42,427) (7.97) (19,703) (3.70) (413,660) (77.70) Net Debt / (Cash) US$m 27,510 25,786 24,417 27,938 29,972 30,949 30,109 Net Equity Value (WACC 8.8% Nom 107, , , ,403, Gearing (net debt/(nd + equity)) % 27% 23% 26% 29% 31% 31% 29% Price Target AUD GBP ZAR Gearing (net debt/equity) % 37% 30% 35% 41% 44% 45% 41% Source: BHP, Macquarie Research, November November
8 Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a marginally negative view on BHP Billiton. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 672/1079 Global rank in Materials % of BUY recommendations 35% (7/20) Number of Price Target downgrades 20 Number of Price Target upgrades 6 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Materials) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Rio Tinto Glencore Rio Tinto Glencore Fortescue Metals Group Vale Anglo American South Fortescue Metals Group Vale Anglo American South % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Rio Tinto Glencore Fortescue Metals Group Vale Anglo American South Rio Tinto Glencore Fortescue Metals Group Vale Anglo American South % -40% 10% 60% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. BPS Growth FY1 DPS Growth FY1 Operating Leverage NTM Capex Growth Sales Revisions 3 Month 3m Earnings Revisions DPS Revisions 3 Month Piotroski Score Negatives Positives -19% -19% -19% -21% 24% 23% 23% 22% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/1079) Percentile relative to market(/394) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 26 November
9 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 September 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 48.87% 59.96% 35.63% 42.13% 59.44% 42.11% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.54% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.44% 25.00% 39.08% 52.55% 37.06% 38.42% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 17.68% 15.04% 25.29% 5.32% 3.50% 19.47% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.51% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) BHP AU vs ASX 100, & rec history BLT LN vs FTSE 100, & rec history BIL SJ vs FTSE/JSE, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) (all figures in GBP currency unless noted) (all figures in ZAR currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November month target price methodology BHP AU: A$27.00 based on a DCF methodology BLT LN: based on a DCF methodology BIL SJ: R based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: BHP AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. The analyst and/or associated parties own or have other interests in securities issued by Ltd. BLT LN: Macquarie Bank Limited makes a market in the securities in respect of BHP Limited. BIL SJ: Macquarie Bank Limited makes a market in the securities in respect of BHP Limited. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 21-Oct-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jul-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Apr-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jan-2015 BHP AU Neutral A$ Sep-2014 BHP AU Neutral A$ Aug-2014 BHP AU Neutral A$ May-2014 BHP AU Outperform A$ Feb-2014 BHP AU Outperform A$ Nov-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Sep-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Aug-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$ Jul-2013 BHP AU Outperform A$40.00 Target price risk disclosures: 26 November
10 BHP AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. BLT LN: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. BIL SJ: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. 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BHP Billiton. Mad Dog 2 gets FID AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 12:49, 02 Dec 2016 GMT) A$25.02/ 13.39/R234.60 Valuation A$ 20.74/ 12.25/R217.81 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%,
More informationPlatinum Asset Management
AUSTRALIA PTM AU Price (at 06:10, 11 Jul 2016 GMT) Neutral A$5.52 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 5.19 12-month target A$ 5.36 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationIOOF. Positive flows in 1Q17. FUM and Net Flows for September Qtr Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Oct 2016.
AUSTRALIA IFL AU Price (at 06:35, 26 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$8.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 8.74 12-month target A$ 9.00 12-month TSR % +14.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationQBE Insurance. QBE ANZ performance: LMI vs. Excl. LMI (A$m) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 16. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationSG Fleet Group. Another UK acquisition. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationBHP Billiton. 2 C could make all the difference. BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT)
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Underperform Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2016 GMT) A$16.14/ 7.35/R155.35 Valuation A$14.93/ 7.00/R156.74 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSouth32. Klipspruit coal mine tour AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA/ UNITED KINGDOM/ SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 12:26, 2 Dec 216 GMT) A$2.83/ 1.67/R29.31 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$ 2.55/ 1.59/R27.75
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationRio Tinto. Mixed production, but iron-ore in line AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM A$48.99/ Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM RIO AU/RIO LN Price (at 6:1, 19 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$48.99/ 24.63 Valuation A$ 52.22/ 27.97 - DCF (WACC 8.%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month target A$ 54./ 27. 12-month
More informationDoray Minerals. Mine life upside at Andy Well A$0.44 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA DRM AU Price (at 5:28, 22 Jun 215 GMT) Outperform A$.44 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.9, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).8 12-month target A$.8 12-month TSR % +81.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationRio Tinto. Expect more cash back in RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM RIO AU/RIO LN Outperform Price (at 8:37, 13 Feb 217 GMT) A$68.32/ 34.45 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$72.24/ 43.35 12-month target A$79./ 43.35 12-month
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationAustralian Iron Ore Miners
AUSTRALIA BHP Billiton Neutral Market Cap US$69,410m Price A$18.55/ 8.48/ZAR182.75 Price Target A$15.50/ 7.20/ZAR163 TSR (15%)/(13%)/(9%) Rio Tinto Outperform Market Cap US$56,484m Price A$46.47/ 21.05
More informationSouth32. Richards Bay and Hillside site tours. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 02:33, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 2:33, 3 Nov 216 GMT) A$2.72/ 1.66/R28.84 Valuation A$2.55/ 1.59/R27.75 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 4:13, 31 Jan 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.6 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.91 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +19.1 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSouth32. Wind in the sails. S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:20, 03 Mar 2017 GMT) A$2.70/ 1.66/R26.70
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA S32 AU/S32 LN/S32 SJ Outperform Price (at 13:2, 3 Mar 217 GMT) A$2.7/ 1.66/R26.7 Valuation A$ 2.78/ 1.67/R27.9 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 12-month
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 17 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.88 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.96 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +14.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 3:1, 22 Feb 217 GMT) Outperform A$6.99 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 4.79 12-month target A$ 7.6 12-month TSR % +13.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 08:49, 24 Jun 20 GMT) Outperform A$3.27 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 3.57 12-month target A$ 3.60 12-month TSR % +.9 Volatility Index Very High
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationMMG. A year of consolidation in 2017 AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA/HONG KONG AU / 128 HK Outperform Price (at 4:, 13 Mar 217 GMT) A$4.9/HK$2.85 Valuation - DCF (WACC 7.%, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) A$4.86/HK$2.85 12-month target A$5.5/HK$3.2 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationBHP Billiton. Production guidance under pressure AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA/UNITED KINGDOM/SOUTH AFRICA BHP AU/BLT LN/BIL SJ Outperform Price (at 05:28, 25 Jan 2017 GMT) A$27.89/ 14.81/R249.42 Valuation A$21.84/ 13.10/R229.42 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
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